Quarterly Investment Briefing February 5, 2014

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Quarterly Investment Briefing February 5, 2014"

Transcription

1 Quarterly Investment Briefing February 5, 2014 Clayton T. Bill, CFA Stephen J. Nilles, CFP

2 Agenda Topic Page 2013 Review 3 Corporate Earnings and Profit Margins 5 Equity Market Valuations 7 Bonds and Expected Returns 9 Outlook and Market Assessment 11 U.S. Government Fiscal Outlook /Taxes 13 Employment 15 Summary 16 Source: Russell

3 Year In Review: 2013 Was A Great Year For Equities Amidst political brinkmanship, global stock market climbed 24% Growth of $ MAR: U.S. sequestertriggered spending cuts and tax increases began. APR: Bank of Japan launched bold stimulus program to boost growth and inflation. AUG: Eurozone exited 18-month recession, led by Germany and France. OCT: Congressional brinkmanship led to U.S. government shutdown. DEC: Federal Reserve announced plans to begin winding down bond-buying program. Janet Yellen nominated to lead the Federal Reserve. MAR: Cyprus sought financial MAY: Bernanke s taper talk 95 rescue; Italy struggled to form got a reaction. Equities 1 a government weeks after pulled-back -6% between general election. May 21 June 24. Russell Global Index 90 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Source: Russell 3

4 Capital Market Returns Period Ending December 31, U.S. Equities Emerging Market Equities Real Estate 33.5 Non-U.S. Equities Fixed Income Rate of Return % Q 1YR 3YR 5YR 10YR Source: Russell 4

5 A Good Earnings Season Thus Far Source: J.P. Morgan 5

6 Why Are U.S. Companies So Profitable? Source: BofA Merrill Lynch 6

7 Market Valuations Don t Appear Overextended Current Price/Earnings levels suggest prices are fairly valued tech bubble = 27 U.S. Large Cap P/E Ratio = Average stock price of an index Overall corporate earnings of an index P/E : Extremely low earnings Average = 16.3 U.S. and Europe appear near historic averages Emerging Markets appear moderately undervalued 28 Europe 28 Emerging Markets P/E 18 Average = 16.2 P/E 18 Average = Source: Russell 7

8 Lower Emerging Market Valuations Consistent With Growth Expectations Price over 36-month trailing earnings for selected global equity indexes In the early 2000s, valuations in the developed world were much higher than those in emerging markets 30 Valuations across regions are now more similar FTSE Emerging Index United States FTSE Developed Ex US Index Source: Vanguard 8

9 Bonds Can Provide Ballast In An Equity Bear Market Median return of various asset classes during the worst decile of monthly equity returns, % 0% -2% Median return -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: Vanguard 9

10 Bond Math = Low Expected Returns Source: Vanguard 10

11 Outlook: Market Assessment According to Fidelity s Business Cycle Board, composed of portfolio managers responsible for a variety of asset allocation strategies across Fidelity s asset management unit, the U.S. macro environment provides a stable backdrop for U.S. assets. The global economy has cyclical momentum, but policy risks have become more acute among emerging economies. Source: Fidelity 11

12 Coordinated Central Bank Action Supported Growth 140 United States Quantitative Easing Federal Reserve s Treasury Bond buying program started in March 2009 and later extended to include mortgages Eurozone Outright Monetary Transaction In 3Q 2012, European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi committed ECB to buying debt to protect weaker Euro members Japan Abenomics Prime Minister Abe s economic plan announced in January 2013 targeted fiscal and monetary reform Index Value QE2 Operation Twist QE3 Whatever it takes 60 QE1 50 Abenomics 40 12/31/ /31/ /31/ /31/ /31/ /30/ /31/ /31/2013 Russell 1000 Russell Large Cap Japan Russell Developed EuroZone Source: Russell 12

13 Improved 2014 Fiscal Outlook: Less Drag, Lower Deficit Tax increases and budget cuts in 2013 reduced the federal budget deficit and created significant drag on the economy. The budget outlook is expected to improve further in 2014 but with much less fiscal drag, which, combined with the two-year budget deal struck by Congress, provides greater certainty and a better near-term fiscal outlook than at any point in years. Source: Fidelity 13

14 Are You Ready For Higher Taxes? Taxable distributions have increased Strong market returns have created sizable gains Generally, investment vehicles must pass along these gains to taxable investors Tax rates have increased for many investors New top marginal rate Increased capital gains rates New investment income tax Marginal Taxable Income Rates % $17,850 or less 15% $17,851 $ 72,500 25% 28% $72,501 $146,401 $146,400 $223,050 33% 35% $223,051 $398,350 $398,351 $450,000 35% $450,001 or more 39.6% New MARRIED FILING JOINT *Source: Internal Revenue Service, January 2014 It s not what you earn, it s what you keep! Work with your advisor to try maximizing after - tax wealth. Source: Russell 14

15 Retirements Now Driving Decline in Participation Rate The aging of the U.S. population has been pushing the labor force participation rate lower for close to a decade. Although the recession caused a cyclical decline in the participation rate, the number of discouraged workers peaked in 2012, which suggests that demographics have been a stronger driver of recent participation-rate declines than employment conditions. Source: Fidelity 15

16 Diversification Over Time Annualized Excess Returns Non - U.S. Equity U.S. Equity Excess Return vs. Other Asset Classes U.S. stocks outperformed non - U.S. stocks by 5.6% per year EM Equity U.S. Bonds Global REITs Commodities Non - U.S. Equity U.S. Equity Excess Return vs. Other Asset Classes U.S. stocks underperformed non - U.S. stocks by 3.8% per year EM Equity U.S. Bonds Global REITs Commodities 2013 s +33% U.S. equity return highlights a superior five - year stretch The prior five years demonstrate how dramatically markets can swing Russell believes diversified portfolios are best positioned to capitalize on this behavior Annualized Excess Returns Source: Russell 16

17 It s Time For Action Ideas to discuss with Indiana Trust Rebalance Create a game plan for maximizing after-tax wealth Reassess the amount and types of fixed income exposure Ask yourself, Are my lifestyle expectations consistent with a more modest return outlook? Source: Russell

18

Fourth Quarter 2015 Market Review. March 2016

Fourth Quarter 2015 Market Review. March 2016 Fourth Quarter 2015 Market Review March 2016 Agenda Market Review Investment Outlook and Portfolio Positioning 2 2015 was a Challenging Year for Investment Returns Last year was the first time since 2001

More information

2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015

2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015 2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5

More information

1 UK outlook: Equities remain vulnerable to ongoing political uncertainty. 2 Fixed income: The bond markets are waiting for interest rates to rise

1 UK outlook: Equities remain vulnerable to ongoing political uncertainty. 2 Fixed income: The bond markets are waiting for interest rates to rise UK outlook: Equities remain vulnerable to ongoing political uncertainty Fixed income: The bond markets are waiting for interest rates to rise 3 When bad news is good news: The eurozone has received its

More information

2013 Fourth Quarter Equity Market Review

2013 Fourth Quarter Equity Market Review Market & Investment Insights 2013 Fourth Quarter Equity Market Review WILLIAM RIEGEL, HEAD OF EQUITY INVESTMENTS Article Highlights: U.S. stocks moved higher in the fourth quarter, capping the best year

More information

Is there still a case for European Small Caps?

Is there still a case for European Small Caps? This document is solely for the use of professionals and is not for general public distribution. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the

More information

Weekly Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist

More information

Risk Has Trended Down... So Should I Be Nervous?

Risk Has Trended Down... So Should I Be Nervous? Risk Has Trended Down... So Should I Be Nervous? Presentation to QWAFAFEW Melissa R. Brown, CFA Senior Director of Applied Research, Axioma January 8, 2013 Agenda Risk fell dramatically throughout 2012,

More information

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond

More information

Investment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets

Investment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets Investment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets GSAM Insurance Fixed Income May 217 GSAM Insurance Asset Management Key Themes for 217 Economic Backdrop End of the Distortion Monetary to Fiscal

More information

European Equity Update

European Equity Update European Equity Update Christopher Warren April 2017 Europe A quick recap of market conditions since 2015 14 th Annual Capital Link Forum April 23, 2015 15 th Annual Capital Link Forum April 21, 2016 16

More information

The Compelling Case for Value

The Compelling Case for Value The Compelling Case for Value July 2, 2018 SOLELY FOR THE USE OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS AND PROFESSIONAL ADVISORS 0 Jan-75 Jan-77 Jan-79 Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97

More information

NESGFOA Economic Assessment Impact on Rates

NESGFOA Economic Assessment Impact on Rates NESGFOA Economic Assessment Impact on Rates September 18, 2017 Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee Not NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee. For institutional

More information

> Macro Investment Outlook

> Macro Investment Outlook > Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9

More information

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan

More information

2018 Investment and Economic Outlook

2018 Investment and Economic Outlook 2018 Investment and Economic Outlook Presented 3/19/18 Jeffrey Neer, CFA Client Portfolio Manager 410-237-5592 jeffrey.neer@pnc.com 1 Monetary Policy: Key Factors Inflation U.S. U.S. Labor Market 2.4%

More information

Please scroll to find the 2018 and 2019 global fund holiday calendars.

Please scroll to find the 2018 and 2019 global fund holiday calendars. Please scroll to find the 2018 and 2019 global fund holiday calendars. 2018 Exchange-Traded fund holiday Vanguard Ireland-domiciled ETFs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1 2 5 12 15 25 9 12 14 15 16 19 28 20 29

More information

MAY 2018 Capital Markets Update

MAY 2018 Capital Markets Update MAY 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS The U.S. added 223,000 jobs to payrolls in May, well above the consensus estimate of 180,000 and the expansion average of around 200,000. Sector job gains were

More information

- Victor Haghani, Founder Elm. Watch the full talk here

- Victor Haghani, Founder Elm. Watch the full talk here "After more than 20 years in finance, from the LSE to Salomon Brothers to LTCM, you d have thought that I d have figured out how to invest my family s savings. Well, it was 2002, I just turned 40, and

More information

Financial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised

Financial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure

More information

Monthly Market Update August 2016

Monthly Market Update August 2016 Monthly Market Update August 2016 Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director D. Scott Stitcher, CFA, Director Richard Pengelly, CFA, CTP, Director Khalid Yasin, CHP, Senior Managing Consultant

More information

Global House View: Market Outlook

Global House View: Market Outlook HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity

More information

2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch

2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch 2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch December 3 rd 2015 Jim Power Global Background US & UK growing at reasonable pace Euro Zone growing well below potential Emerging markets in some

More information

OUTLOOK BMO Asset Management Inc.

OUTLOOK BMO Asset Management Inc. OUTLOOK 2014 2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for 2015 and our recommended asset allocation positioning. Our asset allocation

More information

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below

More information

Investment Perspectives. From The Global Investment Committee

Investment Perspectives. From The Global Investment Committee Investment Perspectives From The Global Investment Committee Global Risk Aversion Reached Extreme Levels Morgan Stanley Standardized Global Risk Demand Index As of October 15, 2014 Complacent Extreme Fear

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics January 214 (November 2 data) Highlights Note: Benchmark revisions were minimal and did not change overall trends. The CU count is down 286 during

More information

World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by

World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI

More information

NOT JUST A BOND PROXY

NOT JUST A BOND PROXY GLOBAL LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE: NOT JUST A BOND PROXY This research paper will explore the often misunderstood impact of interest rates on Global Listed Infrastructure and differentiate between the short

More information

NOT JUST A BOND PROXY

NOT JUST A BOND PROXY GLOBAL LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE: NOT JUST A BOND PROXY This research paper will explore the often misunderstood impact of interest rates on Global Listed Infrastructure and differentiate between the short

More information

Perspectives JAN Market Preview: Non-U.S. Equities

Perspectives JAN Market Preview: Non-U.S. Equities Perspectives JAN 2018 2018 Market Preview: Non-U.S. Equities SUSTAINED STRENGTH OR ONE HIT WONDER? Non-U.S. equity investors patience was finally rewarded with a banner year in 2017, as both strong economic

More information

Italy s Eurozone Trap

Italy s Eurozone Trap Italy s Eurozone Trap Ashoka Mody Based on EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts, New York: Oxford University Press, June 2018. Italy needed and needs the crutch of a depreciating currency to offset its abysmal

More information

Global Investment Outlook Russ Koesterich, CFA Managing Director, Global Allocation

Global Investment Outlook Russ Koesterich, CFA Managing Director, Global Allocation Global Investment Outlook Russ Koesterich, CFA Managing Director, Global Allocation 6 Asset performance YTD Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, BlackRock Investment Institute. Apr, 6 Note: Total return

More information

- Victor Haghani, Founder Elm. Watch the full talk here

- Victor Haghani, Founder Elm. Watch the full talk here "After more than 20 years in finance, from the LSE to Salomon Brothers to LTCM, you d have thought that I d have figured out how to invest my family s savings. Well, it was 2002, I just turned 40, and

More information

OUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.

OUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc. OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset

More information

PIMCO: The New Neutral

PIMCO: The New Neutral PIMCO: The New Neutral Philanthropy Summit 2015 Investing in the New Neutral world April 2015 PIMCO Australia Pty Ltd ABN 54 084 280 508 AFS Licence 246862 Level 19, 363 George St. Sydney, NSW 2000 telephone:

More information

- Victor Haghani, Founder Elm. Watch the full talk here

- Victor Haghani, Founder Elm. Watch the full talk here "After more than 20 years in finance, from the LSE to Salomon Brothers to LTCM, you d have thought that I d have figured out how to invest my family s savings. Well, it was 2002, I just turned 40, and

More information

Investment Update. Adventurous Portfolio February 2018 RUSSELL INVESTMENTS

Investment Update. Adventurous Portfolio February 2018 RUSSELL INVESTMENTS RUSSELL INVESTMENTS Investment Update Adventurous Portfolio February 2018 This report is designed for use by the financial advisor to assist in making a personal recommendation or managing investments

More information

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan

More information

6/11/12 Spanish bank rescue announced. 6/6/12 China cuts interest rates, fueling best day for U.S. stocks in 2012

6/11/12 Spanish bank rescue announced. 6/6/12 China cuts interest rates, fueling best day for U.S. stocks in 2012 Trade History Tactical Opportunities Portfolio LPL Financial Research MODEL WEALTH PORTFOLIOS December 31, 2012 The LPL Financial Research asset allocation process, coupled with a strong security selection

More information

Total

Total The following report provides in-depth analysis into the successes and challenges of the Northcoast Tactical Growth managed ETF strategy throughout 2017, important research into the mechanics of the strategy,

More information

Global Equities. Q&A roadshow #QAroadshow2016. Gavin Marriott Product Manager

Global Equities. Q&A roadshow #QAroadshow2016. Gavin Marriott Product Manager Global Equities Q&A roadshow 216 #QAroadshow216 Gavin Marriott Product Manager June 216 For professional advisers only. This material is not suitable for retail clients Questions What will drive global

More information

Mizuho Economic Outlook & Analysis

Mizuho Economic Outlook & Analysis Mizuho Economic Outlook & Analysis The BOJ after the Comprehensive Assessment will shift to a managed float system with the US adoption of Trumponomics - The BOJ may tolerate a gradual rise without fixing

More information

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS 2017 was an excellent year for international equities, particularly EM. We favor the United States and EM equities for tactical global asset allocations

More information

Investment Research Team Update

Investment Research Team Update Economic & Market Commentary Market Update February 2015 February was a great month for global stocks! The S&P 500 ( large cap stocks) was up 5.7% and small stocks (Russell 2000) gained 5.9%. The jobs

More information

MONTHLY MARKET SNAPSHOT

MONTHLY MARKET SNAPSHOT Your fund. Your wealth. Your future. MONTHLY MARKET SNAPSHOT Commentary on the global economy and performance of the financial markets MONTHLY MARKET SNAPSHOT (KEY INSIGHTS) DECEMBER 2017 The 2017 calendar

More information

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions. ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.

More information

Financial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound

Financial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond

More information

2018 Stock Market Outlook: Double-Digit Returns?

2018 Stock Market Outlook: Double-Digit Returns? 2018 Stock Market Outlook: Double-Digit Returns? January 4, 2018 by John Lynch of LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS We forecast 8 10% returns for the S&P 500 in 2018. The S&P 500 is well positioned to generate

More information

1.1. Low yield environment

1.1. Low yield environment 1. Key developments Overall, the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated since June 215. Although many European countries continue to recover, economic growth still remains fragile reflecting high public

More information

City of San Juan Capistrano

City of San Juan Capistrano City of San Juan Capistrano Fourth Quarter 2013 Portfolio and Market Review Sarah Meacham, Director PFM Asset Management LLC Federal Reserve Taper Talk Drives Interest Rates The Federal Open Market Committee

More information

For personal use only

For personal use only AMYF SERIES QUARTERLY UPDATE 1 OCTOBER 2016 31 DECEMBER 2016 SUMMARY AUSTRALIAN MASTERS YIELD FUND SERIES (AMYF SERIES) HIGHLIGHTS AMYF Series announced the following quarterly dividends and capital returns:

More information

Investment Fundamentals Forum 21 January 2013

Investment Fundamentals Forum 21 January 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum 21 January 2013 Economic Variables Still Matter to Markets? Suan Teck Kin, CFA 21 Jan 2013 Investment Fundamentals Forum Copyright CFA Singapore and SGX. All rights reserved.

More information

Convertibles. To convexity... and beyond! November Key investment themes in 2014 could prove beneficial for convertible bonds.

Convertibles. To convexity... and beyond! November Key investment themes in 2014 could prove beneficial for convertible bonds. Insights Convertibles To convexity... and beyond! November 2013 Convertible bonds can provide investors with the upside potential of equities with added benefits of lower price volatility and protection

More information

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord

More information

Global Investment Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook

Global Investment Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 2014 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook Financial Market Outlook: After Strong Gains

More information

Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War

Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 2 2018 on 3 April 2018 Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Investment Outlook for 2 nd Quarter 2018 Equity Thailand U.S. Europe Japan Asia Bond Thailand

More information

Outlook for 2014 Title 1. David Greene, Pioneer Investments

Outlook for 2014 Title 1. David Greene, Pioneer Investments Outlook for 2014 Title 1 David Greene, Pioneer Investments 2014 A year of Transition Transitioning from fiscal tightening to less austerity. Transitioning from Euro-area recession to growth. Transitioning

More information

Euro-QE at the end of the road for now

Euro-QE at the end of the road for now Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2.1 3.21 1.17 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment

More information

Liquidity Management: Beyond Quantitative Easing

Liquidity Management: Beyond Quantitative Easing Liquidity Management: Beyond Quantitative Easing June 2014 Agenda 1. Assessing Risk: Current Market Conditions a. Global Macroeconomics b. Monetary Policy c. Quantitative Easing (QE) d. Asset Bubbles e.

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY. Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Twitter hashtag: #psforum

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY. Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Twitter hashtag: #psforum THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Darby@conferenceboard.ca US OUTLOOK US recession is coming to an end Q3 likely to be positive due to inventory

More information

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Max Darnell, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. performance is no

More information

Delaware Captive Insurance Association 2016 Fall Forum

Delaware Captive Insurance Association 2016 Fall Forum Delaware Captive Insurance Association 2016 Fall Forum Investment Considerations During Periods of Economic Uncertainty David Kilborn, CFA Chief Investment Officer Performa Limited (US), LLC (843) 297-4130

More information

The next 15 years Is there a New Normal ahead? Delaware Investments Presentation. Richard C Marston Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

The next 15 years Is there a New Normal ahead? Delaware Investments Presentation. Richard C Marston Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania The next 15 years Is there a New Normal ahead? Delaware Investments Presentation Richard C Marston Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Outline 1. Is there a New Normal ahead for stocks? 2. Is the

More information

UNDERSTANDING THE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION

UNDERSTANDING THE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION UNDERSTANDING THE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc. 5700 Corporate Drive, Suite 360 Pittsburgh, PA 15237-5829 Phone: (412) 548-1386 E-mail: wealth@emergingwealth.com Legend

More information

Personal Finance Society 2017 A year of living dangerously?

Personal Finance Society 2017 A year of living dangerously? \\ Personal Finance Society 2017 A year of living dangerously? \\\\ Market Insights Team This presentation is for Professional Clients only and is not for consumer use. 2017 A year of living dangerously?

More information

Trends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds

Trends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds Trends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds CPPC Conference August 2013 Cathe Tocher CFA, Senior Vice President AGENDA Introduction: Short-term noise pay attention Preparing for the future:

More information

OCTOBER 2018 Capital Markets Update

OCTOBER 2018 Capital Markets Update OCTOBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 3.5% (3. YoY) in Q3, beating expectations of 3.4%. The economy was supported by the strongest consumer

More information

Navigating the Fixed Income Minefield

Navigating the Fixed Income Minefield Navigating the Fixed Income Minefield Jeffrey Sherman, CFA Portfolio Manager DoubleLine Capital February 20, 2014 When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen. - Bob Farrell

More information

Investment Update. Multi Asset Growth I February 2019 RUSSELL INVESTMENTS

Investment Update. Multi Asset Growth I February 2019 RUSSELL INVESTMENTS RUSSELL INVESTMENTS Investment Update Multi Asset Growth I February 209 This report is designed for use by the financial advisor to assist in making a personal recommendation or managing investments for

More information

How You Can Beat the Average Hedge Fund by 65% to 80% over 10 Years. The Market Realist Research Team Presents:

How You Can Beat the Average Hedge Fund by 65% to 80% over 10 Years. The Market Realist Research Team Presents: The Market Realist Research Team Presents: How You Can Beat the Average Hedge Fund by 65% to 80% over 10 Years www.marketrealist.com Market Realist Inc., 568 Broadway 11th Floor, New York, NY 10012 TABLE

More information

Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Earnings Resurgence Spring 2017

Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Earnings Resurgence Spring 2017 Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Earnings Resurgence Spring 2017 Key Observations After diverging in 2016, fundamentals once again drove performance in 1Q17 There is a resurgence in earnings

More information

Playing The Bull Market s Final Inning(s)

Playing The Bull Market s Final Inning(s) Playing The Bull Market s Final Inning(s) Douglas Ramsey, CFA, CMT Mid-September 2013 FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION.

More information

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy

More information

SEPTEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update

SEPTEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update SEPTEMBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS Non-farm payrolls added 134,000 jobs in September, missing the consensus estimate of 185,000. However, net revisions to the two months prior totaled +87,000

More information

Market Briefing: European Interest Rates

Market Briefing: European Interest Rates Market Briefing: European Interest Rates September, 7 Dr. Edward Yardeni -97-7 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson -- djohnson@ Mali Quintana -- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the

More information

MNI Light At The End of The Tunnel? Euro Area Economy And the ECB. Johanna Treeck, Senior ECB Correspondent, September 2015

MNI Light At The End of The Tunnel? Euro Area Economy And the ECB. Johanna Treeck, Senior ECB Correspondent, September 2015 MNI Light At The End of The Tunnel? Euro Area Economy And the ECB Johanna Treeck, Senior ECB Correspondent, September 2015 MNI Deutsche Börse Group 1 Market Data + Services We advance markets Service lines

More information

2017 Fund holidays for Vanguard Investments Series plc

2017 Fund holidays for Vanguard Investments Series plc 2017 Fund holidays for Vanguard Investments Series plc Vanguard Investment Series Plc (Irish-domiciled) *Effective 3 March 2014, Vanguard U.S. Opportunities Fund is closed to all new accounts; existing

More information

Distribution Number 26

Distribution Number 26 Distribution Number 26 Multi-Index Income 4 Fund (a Sub-fund of Legal and General Multi-Index Funds) Interim Manager s Short Report for the period ended 15 February 2018 Investment Objective and Policy

More information

A Global Economic and Market Outlook

A Global Economic and Market Outlook A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

More information

Global Investment Outlook

Global Investment Outlook Global Investment Outlook Ewen Cameron Watt June 16 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY - UKRSM-16 Asset performance YTD Sterling Returns Brent Crude Oil Gold German Bund ML Global High Yield JPM EMBI Emerging

More information

BOMA National Advisory Council Meeting Seaport Hotel, Boston MA

BOMA National Advisory Council Meeting Seaport Hotel, Boston MA BOMA National Advisory Council Meeting Seaport Hotel, Boston MA May 5, 2017 Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 1 Raising rates? Raising rates more this year? Next?

More information

2014 Outlook for U.S. Equities

2014 Outlook for U.S. Equities SITUATION ANALYSIS 2014 Outlook for U.S. Equities Executive summary U.S. equities have begun 2014 by trending in a generally sideways fashion as investors appear to be taking a wait and see approach following

More information

Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Searching for Yield and Asking for Trouble? As of June 30, 2016

Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Searching for Yield and Asking for Trouble? As of June 30, 2016 Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Searching for Yield and Asking for Trouble? As of June 30, 2016 Key Observations Strong bond performance has supported bond-like equities and hurt growth stocks

More information

December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW

December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC 241 Third Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54494 715-422-0700 http://buenavistainv.com December 2014 Why Portfolios Remain Diversified

More information

The case for lower rated corporate bonds

The case for lower rated corporate bonds The case for lower rated corporate bonds Marcus Pakenham Fixed income product specialist December 3 Introduction Where should fixed income investors be positioned over the medium term? We expect that government

More information

Fixed Income Update: June 2017

Fixed Income Update: June 2017 Fixed Income Update: June 2017 James Kochan Chief Fixed-Income Strategist Overview Political turmoil may obscure but does not usually overwhelm the economic fundamentals that drive the bond markets.. Those

More information

MLC Horizon 1 - Bond Portfolio

MLC Horizon 1 - Bond Portfolio Horizon 1 - Bond Portfolio Annual Review September 2009 Investment Management Level 12, 105 153 Miller Street North Sydney NSW 2060 review for the year ending 30 September 2009 Page 1 of 11 Important information

More information

Sea Change: The Ebbing of Quantitative Easing Policy and its Impact on the Capital Markets

Sea Change: The Ebbing of Quantitative Easing Policy and its Impact on the Capital Markets Sea Change: The Ebbing of Quantitative Easing Policy and its Impact on the Capital Markets William W. Priest CEO, Co-CIO & Portfolio Manager The information contained herein reflects, as of the date hereof,

More information

The active ingredient in markets and passive s growth

The active ingredient in markets and passive s growth The Allocator September 1, 2017 The active ingredient in markets and passive s growth David Bianco Chief Investment Strategist, Americas Deutsche Asset Management Active and Passive asset management will

More information

Asia Market Outlook: Expecting the Unexpected

Asia Market Outlook: Expecting the Unexpected March 2017 Asia Market Outlook: Expecting the Unexpected Affin Hwang Asset Management Berhad (429786-T) 1 Table of contents Where are we today? Market Outlook 2017: Asia Why Affin Hwang Absolute Return

More information

Key Takeaways. What It May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE

Key Takeaways. What It May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Sean Lynch, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy November 13, 17 Equity Valuations Matter But We Don t See a Bubble» Market valuations typically

More information

Currency Market Outlook EMPRES-7173

Currency Market Outlook EMPRES-7173 Currency Market Outlook 1 Currency Markets Outlook certainly one lesson is that we should get used to periods of higher volatility Mario Draghi President of the European Central Bank ECB Press Conference

More information

Second Annual Investment Symposium

Second Annual Investment Symposium Second Annual Investment Symposium Presenting our outlook for the economy and markets. The Chattanoogan Hotel Tuesday, February 8, 2011 All market data provided by Bloomberg unless otherwise indicated.

More information

China Economic Outlook 2013

China Economic Outlook 2013 China Economic Outlook 2 Key Developments in Brief - Mild recovery of GDP growth: +8 8.5% - Construction and consumption as main drivers - Inflationary pressure to increase: +3% - Tight labor market and

More information

TEL FAX cookstreetconsulting.com

TEL FAX cookstreetconsulting.com TEL 303.333.7770 1.800.318.7770 FAX 303.333.7771 cookstreetconsulting.com Contents 1 Market Review 2 Plan Overview 3 Investment Due Diligence Appendix Appendix 3 1 Market Review 5 Q2 2017 Economic Review

More information

U.S. INTEREST RATES CHARTBOOK MARCH U.S. Interest Rates. Chartbook. March 2017

U.S. INTEREST RATES CHARTBOOK MARCH U.S. Interest Rates. Chartbook. March 2017 U.S. Interest Rates Chartbook March 2017 Takeaways The FOMC has raised the Fed funds rate for the third time since the start of the policy rate normalization cycle in 2015. The Committee has also reinforced

More information

Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary September 16, 2013 Dawning of a New Era? John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Highlights In our view, Yellen remains the leading candidate to replace

More information

Capital Market Review

Capital Market Review Capital Market Review September 3, 215 Percent Percent MARKET/ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Risk Reprices Rapidly 2,2 1,9 1,6 1,3 S&P 5 April 29, 211 to Oct 3, 211 157 Days -19.4% May 21, 215 to Sep 3, 215 132 Days

More information

ETF portfolio review, 30th September ETF portfolios with ESG overlay. market overview. portfolio performance

ETF portfolio review, 30th September ETF portfolios with ESG overlay. market overview. portfolio performance ETF portfolio review, 30th September 2017 market overview All our ETF portfolios performed better than s in September and all portfolios bar fixed-income continued to add to their gains year-to-date. Our

More information