Thailand chart book Asia s safe haven
|
|
- Ashlynn Stafford
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Economics Thailand chart book Asia s safe haven Group Research 11 October 2018 Radhika Rao Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee violetleeyh@dbs.com Thai markets have been remarkably untouched by the selloff in Asia this year. The economy is on course to expand 4.5% YoY, after a strong 1H18 and up from 3.9% in Base effects and some spillover impact from rising trade protectionism might moderate 2019 growth to 4.2%. The external sector has yet far belied concerns over a negative impact from US-China trade disputes, with strong exports trend helping to keep the current account surplus at % of GDP this year, before slowing to 8% in Inflation has shrugged off a slow start to the year, lifted by supply-side pressures, particularly high oil prices. We expect full-year inflation to average 1.3% YoY, before rising to 1.6% next year on a higher core. The Bank of Thailand signaled its readiness to normalize rates, but a hike is not imminent given manageable inflation and a stable currency. Policy tightening expectations might resurface late-2018 and early next as the US continues to hike rates, and the spillover impact weighs on EM. An upside surprise in Thai growth could also be another catalyst for the BOT to hike in Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.
2 Growth Better private consumption demand is being upheld by higher durables, which has helped offset the impact of a slower pick-up in non-durables and weaker service output. Rise in non-durables consumption remains modest but is likely to improve as farm incomes rise on higher agricultural output and better prices. Consumer confidence indices are holding up five-year highs. Private investment indicators are mixed, with the index in a holding pattern in recent months, whilst capital imports (value terms) moderate at the margin. Cement sales and commercial pickups have, however, fared well. Improving capacity utilisation provides an impetus to manufacturing production trends, whilst also helping to draw-in capex interests. Page 2
3 External trade Thai exports and imports growth have moderated in recent months, with imports still outpacing shipments, slowing the trade surplus. The 12MM sum surplus narrowed from USD1.3bn in Dec17 to USD0.6bn by August Despite the trade war overhang, manufacturing products that make bulk of Thai s exports, are up this year, +10.5% YoY (vs 9.3% in 2017) on year-to-date basis. Easing tourism arrivals risk hurting service receipts, with growth implications as the sector makes up ~12% of GDP. Efforts have been targeted at raising CMLV travellers and raising spending per trip to increase revenues. East Asia accounts for the biggest tourism sector for Thailand. China makes up a third of the total arrivals. Recent tragedies have, however, slowed the flow of these visitors, including a fatal ferry accident and likely tighter regulations over Chinese operators. Page 3
4 External balances Current account math is comfortable but easing service sector receipts (due to slower tourism earnings) and fallout from trade war concerns might narrow the surplus to around % of GDP in 2018 vs 11.2% in Strong outbound FDI flows has been a drag on the BOP as Thai companies seek to improve their competitiveness, diversify their portfolios and seek an alternative to a slower domestic private investment cycle. Next year s election is expected to address underlying political stability concerns. Inflation Thailand inflation rose from nearly flat at the start of the year to 1.4% YoY in August-September, well within he BOT s 1-4% inflation range. Cost-push forces rather than better demand is behind the rise in the headline print. Breakdown of inflation sub-components highlights the persistence of supply-side factors, with the contribution of Transport & communication (due to higher energy prices) and despite a small support from subsidies. Page 4
5 Capital flows and Monetary Policy Investors in Thai bonds have sat up and taken notice of the hawkish tilt in the Bank of Thailand (BOT). This has lifted the 2Y and 10Y rates, helped also by 1H growth firmly above 4% mark. The BOT s move to signal a shift towards a less accommodative policy does not, however, imply an imminent rate hike. Inflation risks as shown above are non-threatening, whilst the Thai baht continues to buck the regional FX sell-off. The largely steady USD/THB exchange rate is also accompanied by a steady currency on inflation-adjusted REER (BIS) basis. This lowers the scope for premature hikes, which risk adding to THB gains and hurting competitiveness at the margin. Besides strong external balances, the reserve backstop is also comfortable, with the foreign reserves only marginally down (~USD10-12bn from April s highs) in recent months. Page 5
6 Forecasts on major indicators GDP (YoY) CPI inflation (YoY) f 2019f f 2019f Annual change (%) Exchange rate and interest rates forecasts 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18f 4Q18f 1Q19f 2Q19f 3Q19f 4Q19f USD/THB eop BOT rate (%, eop) Government bond yields 2Y (%, eop) Y (%, eop) Y-2Y (bps) Page 6
7 Group Research Economics & Strategy Taimur Baig, Ph.D. Chief Economist - G3 & Asia taimurbaig@dbs.com Nathan Chow Strategist - China & Hong Kong nathanchow@dbs.com Masyita Crystallin Economist Indonesia & Philippines masyita@dbs.com Joanne Goh Regional equity strategist joannegohsc@dbs.com Neel Gopalakrishnan Credit Strategist neelg@dbs.com Eugene Leow Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia eugeneleow@dbs.com Chris Leung Economist - China & Hong Kong chrisleung@dbs.com Ma Tieying Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan matieying@dbs.com Radhika Rao Economist Eurozone, India & Thailand radhikarao@dbs.com Irvin Seah Economist - Singapore, Malaysia, & Vietnam irvinseah@dbs.com Duncan Tan FX & Rates Strategist - ASEAN duncantan@dbs.com Samuel Tse Economist - China & Hong Kong samueltse@dbs.com Philip Wee FX Strategist - G3 & Asia philipwee@dbs.com Sources: Data for all charts and tables are from CEIC, Bloomberg and DBS Group Research (forecasts and transformations). Disclaimer: The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd (the Company ). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation & the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only & is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company & its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, & may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein & may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking & other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Sources for all charts & tables are CEIC & Bloomberg unless otherwise specified. DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Blvd, Marina Bay Financial Center Tower 3, Singapore Tel: Company Registration No E. Page 7
Indonesia chart book Consumption trumps weak trade
Economics Indonesia chart book Consumption trumps weak trade Group Research 7 August 2018 Radhika Rao Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +65 68785281 violetleeyh@dbs.com 2Q GDP
More informationTaiwan chart book Policy remains neutral
Economics Taiwan chart book Policy remains neutral Group Research October 18 Ma Tieying Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 687881 violetleeyh@dbs.com Charts of the month Export
More informationEconomics Hong Kong chart book HKD rates are sensitive to rising USD rates
Economics Hong Kong chart book HKD rates are sensitive to rising USD rates Group Research 11 October 218 Samuel Tse Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 6878281 violetleeyh@dbs.com
More informationSouth Korea chart book Pre-emptively dovish
Economics South Korea chart book Pre-emptively dovish Group Research 5 September 1 Ma Tieying Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +5 751 violetleeyh@dbs.com Charts of the month Exports
More informationChina chart book Slowing growth and weakening sentiments
Economics China chart book Slowing growth and weakening sentiments Group Research 13 November 1 Nathan Chow Strategist/Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee + 71 violetleeyh@dbs.com
More informationChina chart book Weakening policy transmission
Economics China chart book Weakening policy transmission Group Research 9 October 1 Nathan Chow Strategist/Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee + 71 violetleeyh@dbs.com Charts of
More informationIndia chart book Volatility overshadows growth
Economics India chart book Volatility overshadows growth Group Research 15 October 2018 Radhika Rao Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +65 68785281 violetleeyh@dbs.com Benign food
More informationChart of the Week: Volatility has eased, but for how long?
Economics Chart of the Week: Volatility has eased, but for how long? Group Research 13 August 2018 Irvin Seah Economist irvinseah@dbs.com Key Events: The Singapore economy grew 3.9% YoY (DBSf: 4.0%) in
More informationDBS Focus Malaysia: Beyond the election and politics
Economics DBS Focus Malaysia: Beyond the election and politics Group Research 4 May 218 Irvin Seah Senior Economist In the previous election in 213, PM Najib s coalition won 133 out of a total of 222 parliamentary
More informationDBS Focus Hong Kong: Stormy Seas Ahead
Economics DBS Focus Hong Kong: Stormy Seas Ahead Group Research October 218 Samuel Tse Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 6878281 violetleeyh@dbs.com Hong Kong s economy is facing
More informationEconomics DBS Focus Taiwan in 2018/19: A broader, more palpable recovery
Economics DBS Focus Taiwan in 8/9: A broader, more palpable recovery Group Research 6 December Ma Tieying Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 68788 violetleeyh@dbs.com Forecast
More informationSingapore Budget 2019: Deepening enterprise capabilities, strengthening social support
Economics & Strategy Singapore Budget 2019: Deepening enterprise capabilities, strengthening social support Group Research 19 February 2019 Irvin Seah Senior Economist While facing external headwinds,
More informationDBS Focus Singapore Budget 2018: Enhancing Sustainability
Economics DBS Focus Singapore Budget 2018: Enhancing Sustainability Group Research 20 February 2018 Irvin Seah Senior Economist Budget 2018 Amid an improved growth outlook, the emphasis of this year s
More informationDBS Flash India budget: pro-consumption bias
Economics DBS Flash India budget: pro-consumption bias DBS Group Research 1 February 2019 Radhika Rao Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +65 68785281 violetleeyh@dbs.com Ahead of
More informationUnderstanding China Recalibration of BRI strategy?
Economics & Strategy Understanding China Recalibration of BRI strategy? Group Research 4 July 2018 Chris Leung chrisleung@dbs.com Concerns about debt-trap diplomacy can undermine the credibility of China
More informationWanted: More Swap Lines
Economics & Strategy Weekly Wanted: More Swap Lines DBS Group Research 2 November 2018 Taimur Baig Chief Economist taimurbaig@dbs.com Samuel Tse Economist samueltse@dbs.com Please direct distribution queries
More informationAsian Insights Conference 2018 Special
Economics & Strategy Weekly Asian Insights Conference 2018 Special DBS Group Research 12 July 2018 Taimur Baig Chief Economist taimurbaig@dbs.com Ma Tieying Economist matieying@dbs.com Please direct distribution
More informationDBS Focus India: Easing inflation macro positive, micro concern
Economics DBS Focus India: Easing inflation macro positive, micro concern DBS Group Research 21 January 2019 Radhika Rao Economist (and local) oil prices and an 8.5% fall in the Indian rupee in 2018. Please
More informationHow will Asia cope with $100 oil?
Economics & Strategy Weekly How will Asia cope with $100 oil? DBS Group Research 5 October 2018 Taimur Baig Chief Economist taimurbaig@dbs.com Ma Tieying Economist matieying@dbs.com Please direct distribution
More informationSingapore: Opportunity from the trade war
Economics & Strategy Singapore: Opportunity from the trade war Group Research 1 October 218 Irvin Seah Senior Economist The ongoing trade disputes between the US and China will likely disrupt trade and
More informationReprieve for EM, for now
Economics & Strategy Weekly Reprieve for EM, for now DBS Group Research 9 November 2018 Taimur Baig Chief Economist taimurbaig@dbs.com A much-awaited reprieve, but for how long? After a torrid October,
More informationEconomics Vietnam: stability is key
Economics Vietnam: stability is key DBS Group Research 27 June 2017 Concerns are rising that Vietnam may be aiming for faster growth at the expense of stability Rising domestic leverage and non-performing
More informationMonetary policy in 2019: where are rates going?
Economics & Strategy Weekly Monetary policy in 2019: where are rates going? DBS Group Research 23 November 2018 Taimur Baig Chief Economist taimurbaig@dbs.com Nathan Chow Strategist/Economist nathanchow@dbs.com
More information2018: A scorecard (what we got right and what we got wrong)
Economics & Strategy Weekly 2018: A scorecard (what we got right and what we got wrong) DBS Group Research 14 December 2018 Taimur Baig Chief Economist taimurbaig@dbs.com Radhika Rao Economist radhikarao@dbs.com
More informationNotes from Beijing: v2.0 institutions dealing with v3.0 challenges
Economics & Strategy Weekly Notes from Beijing: v2.0 institutions dealing with v3.0 challenges DBS Group Research 7 September 2018 Taimur Baig Chief Economist taimurbaig@dbs.com Duncan Tan Strategist duncantan@dbs.com
More informationA 2020 US Slowdown (near-recession) Scenario
Economics & Strategy Weekly A 2020 US Slowdown (near-recession) Scenario DBS Group Research 19 October 2018 Taimur Baig Chief Economist taimurbaig@dbs.com Samuel Tse Economist samueltse@dbs.com Please
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationEconomics SGD: neutral for a long time to come
Economics SGD: neutral for a long time to come DBS Group Research 7 April 2017 The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will hold its semiannual monetary review on 13 Apr. We expect no changes to the,
More informationQuarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War
Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai
More informationEconomics Taiwan: diversifying into Southeast Asia
Economics Taiwan: diversifying into Southeast Asia DBS Group Research October 6 Taiwan s direct investment in the ASEAN-6 has doubled over the past five years and has plenty of room to grow further China
More informationMonthly Economic Insight
Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.
More informationAsian Currency Research SGD: unappreciated
Asian Currency Research SGD: unappreciated DBS Group Research 22 May 214 Contrary to consensus expectations, the Singapore dollar did not fall past to the US dollar Over the past 2-3 years, the SGD has
More informationEconomics Korea: Moon s first 100 days
Economics Korea: Moon s first days DBS Group Research 7 August 7 Moon is pursuing a set of policies pledged during the election A supplementary budget and minimum wage hike have boosted hopes for growth
More informationEconomics & Strategy DBS Focus Indonesia in 2018/19: Higher gear?
Economics & Strategy DBS Focus Indonesia in 2018/19: Higher gear? Group Research 20 November 2017 Gundy Cahyadi Economist Philip Wee FX strategist Eugene Leow Rates strategist Joanne Goh Equity strategist
More informationEconomics Japan: BOJ s exit will take time
Economics Japan: BOJ s exit will take time DBS Group Research 14 June 2017 The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been focusing on yield curve control after reforming its policy framework in Sep16 The recent decline
More informationMonthly Outlook. June Summary
Monthly Outlook June 2015 Summary Yields of US Treasuries (USTs) rallied in May, with the 2-year and 10-year yields up 4 and 9 basis points (bps) respectively as compared to end-april levels. During the
More informationKBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016
KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016 Thailand Economic Monitor and BoT Forecast : March 2016 Thailand s economy steadied in February, though domestic demand decelerated slightly from January
More informationKASIKORNBANK. Investor Presentation. Monthly Economic Information By KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER. June 2017
KASIKORNBANK Investor Presentation Monthly Economic Information By KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER June 7 For further information, please contact Investor Relations Unit or visit our website at www.kasikornbankgroup.com
More informationEconomics. Market Insight Tuesday, 6 June, Malaysia Economy. Exports and Imports slowed down in April. Chart 1: Malaysia: External Trade
Market Insight Tuesday, 6 June, 2017 RM'bn Jan'10 Jan'11 Jan'12 Jan'13 Jan'14 Jan'15 Jan'16 Jan'17 % y-o-y Imran Nurginias Ibrahim imran@bimbsec.com.my PP16795/03/2013(031743) 03-26131733 www.bisonline.com
More informationEconomics SG: risks beneath the GDP figures
Economics SG: risks beneath the GDP figures DBS Group Research 18 August 216 Headline growth has been weak. Things may be worse under the hood Two consecutive quarters of contraction in the services sector
More informationAsia Watch. The US giveth, the US taketh away. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions.
Asia Watch Group Economics Emerging Markets Research 1 June 18 Arjen van Dijkhuizen Senior Economist Tel: +31 68 85 arjen.van.dijkhuizen@nl.abnamro.com The US giveth, the US taketh away Growth momentum
More informationGrowth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy
Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy 1. Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy The Thai economy expanded by slightly less than the previous projection due to weaker-than-anticipated
More informationKey developments and outlook
1/17 Key developments and outlook Economic growths in 2016 and 2017 remain close to the previous assessment. Better-than-expected merchandise exports and private consumption compensate for weaker-than-expected
More informationMARKET OUTLOOK January 2018
MARKET OUTLOOK January 2018 1.0 Fixed Income Fixed Income Outlook & Investment Strategy Given that it was the start of the new trading year, trading volume in the MGS market rebounded sharply in January
More informationFed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates
Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Kathy Bostjancic Head of US Macro Investor Services kathybostjancic@oxfordeconomics.com April 2016 Oxford Economics forecast highlights
More informationEconomic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015
Economic Outlook 2016 Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Global outlook Domestic outlook 2 In 2016, recovery pace in most regions are expected to pick up except for China Eurozone 2.0 1.5
More informationTaiwan: 5 things you need to know about the aging population
Economics Taiwan: 5 things you need to know about the aging population DBS Group Research 18 August 216 Taiwan s population is aging fast. The working age population will begin to shrink this year; the
More informationEconomics Taiwan: a closer look at the Southbound opportunities
Economics Taiwan: a closer look at the Southbound opportunities DBS Group Research 19 September 017 Taiwan s trade and investment ties with ASEAN continued to expand this year There is plenty of room for
More informationDaily Breakfast Spread
Economics, Currencies & Rates Daily Breakfast Spread DBS Group Research 5 April 2017 Economics US Fed expectations Implied fed funds rate Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Market Current 0.98 1.11 1.24 1wk ago 0.97 1.08
More informationTaiwan & Korea: how low can rates go?
Economics Taiwan & Korea: how low can rates go? DBS Group Research 7 July 216 Taiwan s and Korea s central banks have both cut rates by 2bps this year. Further cuts are possible given a sluggish growth
More informationGood MornING Asia - 1 March 2018
Economic and Financial Analysis Bundle Good MornING Asia - Global Economics Ignore China's weak PMI data; supply-side reforms support prospects of steady manufacturing and GDP growth in 2018. India's GDP
More informationVND to Depreciate Gradually in 2009
FX Alert Vietnamese Dong Analysts Callum Henderson*, +65 6530 3282 Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Head of FX Strategy Callum.Henderson@standardchartered.com Thomas Harr, +65 6530 3617 Standard Chartered
More informationECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN 2016-17 Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong I. The Current Trends Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Hong Kong increased 1.7 percent
More informationMonthly Outlook SEPTEMBER 2013
Monthly Outlook SEPTEMBER 2013 In August, the yield curve of US Treasuries continued to steepen as the likelihood of the US Fed tapering to start before year-end became stronger. Asian Local Currency fund
More informationMarket Performance WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS. Yields Threat vs. Earnings Support. PBOC s Monetary Policy Easing a Positive for Equities
30 APRIL 2018 Yields Threat vs. Earnings Support The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note closed at 3.024% on Wednesday, above the key psychological level of 3% for the first time since January 2014,
More informationAutomobile Industry in Malaysia
Overseas Market Information Business Environment Ranking Automobile Industry in Malaysia (Continued from previous issue) BMI s revised Business Environment Ranking for the automotive industry sees Malaysia
More informationB-GUIDE: Market Outlook
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond
More informationKorea and Australia in a globalised world
Korea and Australia in a globalised world November 7 Amy Auster Head of International Economics Economics@ANZ Globalisation is the structural change of our time 7,, 5,, 3,, 1, Global merchandise trade
More informationDevelopments in Emerging East Asia Bond Markets
Developments in Emerging East Asia Bond Markets Donghyun Park, Principal Economist Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, Asian Development Bank Overview The outlook for economic growth
More informationMarket Bulletin. China: Still sneezing hard. January 20, 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin January 20, 2016 China: Still sneezing hard In brief Slower 4Q15 GDP growth and soft December data add to concerns about China s economic health. On a more encouraging note,
More informationIndustry Outlook Banks (Thailand)
Refer to important disclaimers at the end of this report DBS Group Research Asian Insights Office 30 March 2017 Overall Outlook GDP growth likely to tick up, yet downside risks remain Thailand s GDP growth
More informationFund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy
Fund Information Fund Name PB Asia Pacific Dividend Fund () Fund Category Equity Fund Investment Objective To provide income by investing in a portfolio of stocks in domestic and regional markets which
More informationIndia budget: stability over growth
Economics India budget: stability over growth DBS Group Research 12 January 217 India is likely to meet its fiscal deficit target of 3.5 for FY16/17 on higher revenues In targeting a narrower deficit of
More informationGlobal Equites declined from Concern over Trade War
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 2 2018 on 3 April 2018 Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Investment Outlook for 2 nd Quarter 2018 Equity Thailand U.S. Europe Japan Asia Bond Thailand
More informationVietnam grew quicker than expected in 3Q
September 9, 1 Global Markets Research Economics - Vietnam Vietnam grew quicker than expected in 3Q Vietnam s economy grew.93 in the past nine months (1H: +.) as momentum in the manufacturing and services
More informationInvestment Theme 3Q18. Ageing Population. Source: AFP Photo
Investment Theme 3Q18 Ageing Population Source: AFP Photo 91 Investment Theme III: Ageing Population Jason Low, CFA Strategist The global population is growing older and people are living longer. Demographics
More information3.9% Good MornING Asia - 6 April Asia week ahead: Trade war threats weighs on central banks
Economic and Financial Analysis Bundle Good MornING Asia - Global Economics The fear of a global trade war weighs on Asian central bank policy tightening. We expect Singapore and Korea to keep policies
More informationKey developments and outlook
1/22 Key developments and outlook Economic growth projection is revised up from a stronger recovery of exports. Meanwhile, government spending remains an important growth driver. Private spending gradually
More informationECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN 2015-16 Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong I. The Current Trends Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Hong Kong increased 2.8 percent
More informationJapan: The impact of QQE2
JP: The impact of QQE2 7 November 214 Economics Japan: The impact of QQE2 DBS Group Research 7 November 214 The BOJ will expand its quantitative and qualitative (QQE) program The yen has fallen and the
More informationAsia Bond Monitor June 2018
September 8 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Japan s industrial production fell.% on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis but rose.% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in
More informationGlobal/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook. Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June
Global/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June 11-12 2015 2015/SFOM13/002 Session: 1 Global/Regional Economic and Financial
More informationInvestment Strategy Note 24 Nov 2015
India: muddling through a difficult environment India remains a long term positive story based on its economic and demographic potential despite disappointments in the recent pace of recovery. The global
More informationCredit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update
Credit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update ROBIN J. ANDERSON, Ph.D. SENIOR ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS June 2015 All expressions of opinion and predictions in this report are subject
More information3Q18 Current Account Surplus Lowest Since 3Q16 amid Continued Deficit in Services
n ECONOMIC REPORT Balance of Payment 21 November 218 3Q18 Current Account Surplus Lowest Since 3Q16 amid Continued Deficit in Services Malaysia s current account surplus at 9-quarter low. Current account
More informationAUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN GENERAL
Bank Indonesia cut its reference rate by 25bps to 6.5% This was in tandem with slower global growth and Fed pause on rate Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly cut BI reference rate by 25bps to 6.5% on the
More informationAustralia: Economic and Financial Outlook
Australia: Economic and Financial Outlook Greg Noonan Head of Business Markets Queensland & Agribusiness 5 June 2015 Australian economy and financial markets continue to be impacted by a large number of
More informationEconWatch. Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US. 21 August 2015
EconWatch 21 August 2015 Patricia Oh Swee Ling patricia-oh@ambankgroup.com 603-2036 2240 Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US Investment Highlights Qualms of currency
More informationImplementation of Pheu Thai Party Policy Key to Thailand s Success
Analyst Tan Xuan +6631179 tanx@phillip.com.sg 14 Jul 211 Implementation of Pheu Thai Party Policy Key to Thailand s Success Executive Summary Bright spot in private consumption to be supported by rising
More informationMARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK February 2018
MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK February 2018 1.0 Fixed Income Economics During the month, Malaysia s 4Q2017 GDP was released. Real Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) grew 5.9% YoY, slightly slower than the 6.2% recorded
More information.Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives
.Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives How important is NEER to export growth? Strategies on Macro / FX/ Rates 1 April 2016 Non-conventional policies have resulted in non-normal consequences Currency
More informationGlobal Economics Monthly Review
Global Economics Monthly Review January 8 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global
More informationFlash Note Japan: Second reading of Q2 GDP
FLASH NOTE Flash Note Japan: Second reading of Q2 GDP GDP forecast revised up but external uncertainties persist Pictet Wealth Management - Asset Allocation & Macro Research 11 September 2018 The second
More informationComparison Of GST Rates And Revenue From GST In Selected Asian Countries. Initial Standard Rate (%)
The Impact Of GST It took 1 years from when the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was first mooted in Malaysia to its implementation on April 1,1. The move was announced at Budget 1 to replace the existing
More informationSEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL GENERAL
4 August ASEAN manufacturing PMI fell below 50 in July Drop in Asean s manufacturing PMI may be due to seasonal factors IHS Markit s ASEAN Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in
More informationAsia: breaking new new ground
Economics Asia: breaking new new ground DBS Group Research 11 May 1 Asia s exports continue to advance at an 8% pace. It s not the % pace of yesteryear but it s respectable given the sluggish global economy
More informationMalaysia- GDP & BOP 1Q17
Real GDP growth surprised on the upside in 1Q17 Real GDP growth rose by 5.6% in 1Q17, exceeding market expectations Malaysia s real GDP growth rose by 5.6% yoy in 1Q17 (4.5% in 4Q16), significantly higher
More informationJUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
BOT raised GDP growth forecasts for and 2018 BOT kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% for eighteen straight month Bank of Thailand (BOT) maintained its policy rate, i.e. one-day repurchase rate, at 1.5%
More informationFund Performance Average Total Return for the Following Years Ended 28 February 2018
Fund Information Fund Name PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund () Fund Category Equity Fund Investment Objective To achieve capital growth over the medium to long-term period by primarily investing in the securities
More informationAsian Development Outlook 2017
1 Asian Development Outlook 2017 Transcending the Middle-Income Challenge Donghyun Park Principal Economist Asian Development Bank The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not
More informationRestructuring of Malaysia s economy Post-GE14 International Factors and Perspectives Impacting Malaysia s 2019 Economic Outlook
Restructuring of Malaysia s economy Post-GE14 International Factors and Perspectives Impacting Malaysia s 2019 Economic Outlook Yeah Kim Leng Professor of Economics Sunway University Business School 24
More informationOCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG GENERAL
8 September ASEAN manufacturing PMI rose above 50 in August Indonesia inflation rate slowed slightly to 3.82% ASEAN purchasing managers index (PMI) rose above 50 level to 50.4 in August, after falling
More informationGlobal rates roundup / chart-pack
Global rates roundup 1 Aug 216 Interest rate strategy Global rates roundup / chart-pack DBS Group Research 1 August 216 NIRP and QE are in full swing. However, aside from the Bank of England, room for
More informationAsian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016
Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016 Q1 2016 The past year turned out to be a year where one of the oldest investment adages came true: Sell in May and go away, don t come back until St.
More informationThe Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies
The Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies Asian economies maintain stable growth led by domestic demand although growth pace slows down slightly AKI FUKUCHI, YOKO HAGIWARA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO
More informationDBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises 星展人民幣動力指數
20 August 2014 DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises 星展人民幣動力指數 Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or
More informationGlobal Risk Outlook May 2016
Global Risk Outlook May 2016 Scott Livermore Managing Director and COO slivermore@oxfordeconomics.com About Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is a world leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis.
More informationExclusive Analysis: Indonesia Market Update
February 15, 2013 Exclusive Analysis: Indonesia Market Update Research Team Ryan Hakim Economist rhakim@cascadeasia.com Manuel Pakpahan Director, Investment Strategy manuel@cascadeasia.com Bank Indonesia
More informationSET market report for January 2018
SET News 8/218 February 8, 218 SET market report for January 218 BANGKOK, February 8, 218 - The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index at the end of January advanced 4.2 percent from end-2 to 1,826.86
More informationThe Asia Pacific Fund, Inc.
Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19th Floor Edinburgh Tower 15 Queen s Road Central Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2841 1411 Fax: (852) 2868 411 The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. Investment Outlook & Strategy www.asiapacificfund.com
More information