Asian Development Outlook 2017

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2 Asian Development Outlook 2017 Transcending the Middle-Income Challenge Donghyun Park Principal Economist Asian Development Bank The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank, or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. 2 2

3 Key messages Solid growth of 5.7% forecast for developing Asia in 2017 and 2018, a slight downtick from 2016 PRC s controlled growth moderation somewhat offsets the boost from improving prospects in advanced economies Global commodity price pickup lifts inflation, but the rate stays below the average for the past 10 years The key risks to the outlook stem from uncertain policy directions in advanced economies Innovation, human capital, and infrastructure can lift productivity growth of middle income economies to pave the way to high income 3

4 Developing Asia s growth to remain solid 8 6 GDP growth (%) Developing Asia Developing Asia excl NIEs f 2018f f = forecast; NIEs = newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China Source: Asian Development Outlook 2017 database 4

5 GDP growth, % with most economies picking up f 2018f East Asia China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Taipei,China Central Asia Azerbaijan Kazakhstan The Pacific Fiji Papua New Guinea f 2018f South Asia Bangladesh India Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Myanmar f = forecast Source: Asian Development Outlook 2017 database 5

6 Gathering momentum in major industrial economies GDP growth (%) Actual ADO Projection Major industrial economies United States Euro area Japan Source: Asian Development Outlook

7 will support the rebound in exports... % change, yoy, 3mma Exports growth, selected economies PRC IND NIEs ASEAN-5 Exports growth, developing Asia Developing Asia Central Asia East Asia South Asia % change The Pacific Southeast Asia Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan f 2018f ASEAN-5 = Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. f = forecast; 3mma = 3-months moving average Source: Asian Development Outlook 2017 database. 7

8 as strong domestic demand set to continue Demand-side contributions to growth, selected economies, 2016 Total investments Total consumption Net exports Percentage points 12 NIEs ASEAN PRC IND HKG KOR SIN TAP INO MAL PHI THA VIE Note: HKG = Hong Kong, China; IND = India; INO = Indonesia; KOR = Republic of Korea; MAL = Malaysia; PHI = Philippines; PRC = People s Republic of China; SIN = Singapore; TAP = Taipei,China; THA = Thailand; VIE = Viet Nam. The numbers do not sum up to GDP growth due to the omission of Statistical Discrepancy. NIEs = newly industrialized economies; ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Source: Haver Analytics (accessed 13 March 2017); Asian Development Outlook 2017 database. 8

9 PRC s growth will moderate GDP growth, PRC % f 2018f f = forecast Source: Asian Development Outlook 2017 database. Cyclical factors Excess capacity in some sectors Prioritizing financial sector stability Structural factors Rebalancing Declining working-age population Convergence to developed economies 9

10 ...while India s will pick up GDP growth, India % Cyclical factors Improved net exports Liquidity squeeze easing; demonetization effect temporary f 2018f f = forecast Note: Years are fiscal years ending on 31 March of the next year. Source: Asian Development Outlook 2017 database. Structural reforms can sustain long-term growth Business investment deregulation Goods & Services Tax 10

11 Inflation is forecast to inch up 5 Inflation (%) year average ( ) f 2018f f = forecast. Source: Asian Development Outlook 2017 database. 11

12 reflecting global commodity prices rebound $/ barrel Brent Crude prices Spot Annual average Baseline forecasts 2010= Food price index Monthly Annual average Baseline forecasts Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan2017 Jan 2018 Sources: Bloomberg; World Bank. Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet). (accessed 30 March 2017). 12

13 Risks to the outlook Spillovers from sharper-than-expected US monetary tightening Asian central bank response to avoid capital outflows Impact on highly indebted corporates and households Shifts in industrial country trade and tax policies Weaker-than-expected oil price recovery Upside risk for oil importers Undermine recovery of oil and gas exporters Developing Asia can manage short-term risks 13

14 Theme chapter: Transcending the middle-income challenge 14

15 Rapid growth transformed Asia from low to middle income % Population Shares by Income Group Low Middle High World Developing Asia 15

16 and now productivity-centered growth is needed to reach high income Contributions to Growth, (%) Middle income staying there Middle income rising to high Physical capital Labor Human capital Productivity 16

17 Productivity growth will come from innovation Research & development stock per labor hour Patent applications (resident) per million persons Upper-middle income staying there 0.3 Upper-middle income staying there 44 Upper-middle income rising to high 0.9 Upper-middle income rising to high

18 Ratio driven by entrepreneurs with new ideas or technology 20 Opportunity-driven/Necessity-driven Early-stage Entrepreneurship Low Income Middle Income High Income Log GDP per capita 18

19 that create a more diverse, sophisticated product mix Share of Most Complex Exports 19

20 Innovation requires investment in human capital Average Schooling Years by Income Group Total Schooling Tertiary Schooling High 9.7 High 0.57 Middle 6.1 Middle 0.20 Low 2.9 Low

21 to close the skills gaps with high-income economies PISA (Science), 2015 PISA (Math), 2015 Middle income OECD Middle income OECD % low performers % low performers % top performers % top performers OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; PISA= Programme for International Student Assessment 21

22 More innovative economies need more advanced infrastructure Electricity-generating capacity Internet users Upper-middle income staying there 56.5 Upper-middle income staying there 10.2 Upper-middle income rising to high 94.2 Upper-middle income rising to high Kilowatt hours per 100 people Per 100 people 22

23 but Asia still has large infrastructure needs Meeting the Investment Gaps, (annual averages) $ billion in 2015 prices 1,600 $459 $1,340 1, $ Current Investment Gap Annual Needs 23

24 Attaining high income is challenging but within Asia s reach Pattern of growth will have to evolve with innovation, human capital, and infrastructure all playing key roles Sound policies and institutions are vital to support this evolution Role of macroeconomic stability remains indispensable 24

25 Key messages Solid growth of 5.7% forecast for developing Asia in 2017 and 2018, a slight downtick from 2016 PRC s controlled growth moderation somewhat offsets the boost from improving prospects in advanced economies Global commodity price pickup lifts inflation, but the rate stays below the average for the past 10 years The key risks to the outlook stem from uncertain policy directions in advanced economies Innovation, human capital, and infrastructure can lift productivity growth of middle income economies to pave the way to high income 25

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