Economics Vietnam: stability is key

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Economics Vietnam: stability is key"

Transcription

1 Economics Vietnam: stability is key DBS Group Research 27 June 2017 Concerns are rising that Vietnam may be aiming for faster growth at the expense of stability Rising domestic leverage and non-performing loans pose risks to medium-term financial stability External balances are also deteriorating, which could complicate monetary policy Policymakers may have to sacrifice growth to ensure stability Disappointing first quarter GDP growth and the likelihood that growth will fall short of the official targets [1] raises concerns that authorities may aim for faster growth at the expense of stability. Ensuring financial stability GDP growth has been moderating since 2015 (Chart 1). Final GDP growth for last year was below expectation. With a disappointing first quarter growth of 5.1, the risk is that overall GDP growth for this year will once again fall short of the official target of 6.7%. Yet, in a bid to achieve the growth target, authorities have been aiming for faster credit growth (Chart 2). The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) expects 18% credit growth this year, up from 12% in That means credit growth would run 3 times faster than GDP growth. Chart 1: Growth is falling short of target 7.0 Actual / forecast Chart 2: Credit growth has surged Official target at start of year Credit growth f 12 Latest: Dec16 10 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Irvin Seah (65) irvinseah@dbs.com Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 1

2 Chart 3: Outstanding credit to GDP ratio has surged % Outstanding credit as % of GDP 111 Chart 4: Reported NPL ratio understating reality % 5.5 NPL as % of total outstanding credit Actual NPLs higher than reported External balances weakening Strong credit growth also means a rapid accumulation of debt. The debt to GDP ratio is now about 122%, up from 95% in 2012 and will likely continue to rise further (Chart 3). In addition, though the central bank has kept its monetary policy steady, it expects money supply (M2) to rise by 16%-18% this year due to such credit expansion. Rapid credit expansion is typically accompanied by rising bad debt. This challenged Vietnam during And while the reported non-performing loan (NPL) ratio appears low at present (2.6%), it does not include the NPLs sold to the Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC) and special mention loans (Chart 4) [2]. According to the SBV, if including the bad debt managed by VAMC, bad debts in the overall system would likely be around 8.9% of the total as of end While the situation is not dire, it bears watching. And although improved economic performance could lower NPLs, the rapid and sustained increase in credit growth poses risks to financial stability in the medium-term. Policymakers may be better off focusing on productivity gains instead of credit expansion to achieve sustainable growth. Watch external balances Besides risk of financial imbalances, a wider trade deficit / weaker balance of payments (BOP) position is back on the radar screen. Specifically, the surge in domestic consumption and exports have led to greater imports. For example, a significant portion of the parts and components used in electronics manufacturing are imported. The local value-added in the manufacturing process is not significant. Coupled with domestic spending on imported consumer goods, there has been a deterioration in the trade balance. The trade deficit reached USD 2.6bn in the first five months of the year (Chart 5). While expectation is that this will narrow towards the latter part of the year with the shipments from Samsung s new Galaxy S8 phone, the deficit is nearly 3 times greater than during the same period last year. Moreover, the Prime Minister has made commitment to increase Vietnam s import of goods and services from the US by about USD 15bn-17bn during his recent visit to the US in a bid to reduce Vietnam s trade surplus (USD 32bn) with the US. This will only exacerbate Vietnam s overall trade deficit. The trade account is expected to experience a deficit of USD 2.1bn this year based on our estimation. This will lower the current account balance, especially 2

3 Chart 5: Dip in trade balance drove dong weaker USD mn Weaker VND USD/VND Chart 6: FDI inflows have fallen USD mn Trade balance USD-VND (RHS) Latest: May Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan Jan-May16 Jan-May17 given that the goods balance is crucial in offsetting the deficits in the services trade and primary income accounts. While the economy enjoys strong inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), which will help to buffer against any downside in the current account, this component tends to be volatile and FDI inflows in the first five months of the year is also 11.4% lower than the same period last year (Chart 6). In short, the BOP will be under pressure this year. A smaller surplus of USD 1.8bn in 2017 is expected, down from USD 8.4bn previously. Preserving stability Dong will remain under pressure The dong has depreciated about 2% since 2H16 partly due to deteriorating external balances. While the depreciation was marginal, pressure will remain in the coming months given the backdrop of US monetary policy normalisation and the drag from external balances. A weaker currency on top of strong domestic demand fuelled by credit expansion also means that the economy will be prone to any inflationary shock. Although inflation remains benign for now, the high NPLs within the financial system could impede the central bank s ability to mitigate any potential inflationary risk via rate hikes. Apart from falling short of the growth target, overall conditions in the economy have thus far remained manageable. But the economy went through a painful period in while chasing growth targets (Chart 7). It was a Chart 7: A volatile past and the need to preserve stability % % Economic stability 10 5 CPI inflation

4 classic case of policy mismanagement. Concerns of deja-vu are re-emerging. Policymakers could do worse than to accept slower growth in return for more stable and sustainable growth. Notes: [1] VN: cautiously optimistic, DBS Group Research 3Q17 Quarterly Report, 8 Jun17 [2] On 18 May 2013, the government issued Decree No. 53/2013/ND-CP on the establishment of Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC) which came into effect on 9 July 2013 (Decree 53). The setting up of VAMC is designed to alleviate the burden that NPLs have placed on the balance sheet of Vietnamese commercial banks and other credit institutions. Sources: All data are sourced from CEIC, Bloomberg and DBS. 4

5 Recent Research IN: GST set for kick-off 23 Jun 17 TH: the deleveraging drag 23 Jun 17 US: a mulish consistency 21 Jun 17 SGS: carry environment 20 Jun 17 IN: window opens for a rate cut 19 Jun 17 CN: more monetary flexibility 19 Jun 17 PH: to lead hikes in ASEAN 15 Jun 17 JP: BOJ s exit will take time 14 Jun 17 Qtrly: Economics-Markets-Strategy 3Q17 8 Jun 17 Global: on sentiment, cycles and 60-year 1 Jun 17 track records EZ: ECB not ready yet 23 May 17 CN: reality check 16 May 17 IN: RBI on the defensive 16 May 17 KR: after the election 12 May 17 US: unwinding QE 4 May 17 FX: USD s hopes Trumpled 3 May 17 IN: time for an upgrade? 28 Apr 17 Rates: global rates roundup 25 Apr 17 TW: Trump and Taiwan, revisited 20 Apr 17 ID: stronger rupiah a boost 20 Apr 17 CNH: room to loosen controls 13 Apr 17 IN: watching state finances 12 Apr 17 SGD: neutral for a long time to come 7 Apr 17 SGS: FX tailwind at the limit 7 Apr 17 IN: structural tailwinds to add to cyclical 31 Mar 17 upswing KR: is optimism justified? 29 Mar 17 IN: monetary policy on cruise control 27 Mar 17 TH: narrower C/A surplus a plus 21 Mar 17 SG: ensuring fiscal sustainability 20 Mar 17 Qtrly: Economics-Markets-Strategy 2Q17 9 Mar 17 Asia: Trump and the state of US-Asia trade 7 Mar 17 CN: the rise and rise (and rise) of the RMB 24 Feb 17 ID: next move is a rate hike 21 Feb 17 SG budget: building the future economy 21 Feb 17 CN: what to watch for as PBoC tightens 20 Feb 17 SG: upgraded 20 Feb 17 TW: Trump s policies and Taiwan 15 Feb 17 SG: shaping the future 6 Feb 17 FX: USD strength hits a roadblock 3 Feb 17 IN budget: a balanced approach 2 Feb 17 Rates: global rates roundup 2 Feb 17 TW: shifting into higher gear 27 Jan 17 SG: time to recalibrate 26 Jan 17 EZ: ECB stays defensive 24 Jan 17 ID: looking at an S&P upgrade 19 Jan 17 US: pop goes the headline 18 Jan 17 Asia cyclical dashboard 17 Jan 17 Disclaimer: The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd (the Company ). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Sources for all charts and tables are CEIC and Bloomberg unless otherwise specified. DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Blvd, Marina Bay Financial Center Tower 3, Singapore Tel: Company Registration No E. 5

Economics Japan: BOJ s exit will take time

Economics Japan: BOJ s exit will take time Economics Japan: BOJ s exit will take time DBS Group Research 14 June 2017 The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been focusing on yield curve control after reforming its policy framework in Sep16 The recent decline

More information

Economics Korea: Moon s first 100 days

Economics Korea: Moon s first 100 days Economics Korea: Moon s first days DBS Group Research 7 August 7 Moon is pursuing a set of policies pledged during the election A supplementary budget and minimum wage hike have boosted hopes for growth

More information

Economics Taiwan: a closer look at the Southbound opportunities

Economics Taiwan: a closer look at the Southbound opportunities Economics Taiwan: a closer look at the Southbound opportunities DBS Group Research 19 September 017 Taiwan s trade and investment ties with ASEAN continued to expand this year There is plenty of room for

More information

Economics SGD: neutral for a long time to come

Economics SGD: neutral for a long time to come Economics SGD: neutral for a long time to come DBS Group Research 7 April 2017 The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will hold its semiannual monetary review on 13 Apr. We expect no changes to the,

More information

Taiwan chart book Policy remains neutral

Taiwan chart book Policy remains neutral Economics Taiwan chart book Policy remains neutral Group Research October 18 Ma Tieying Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 687881 violetleeyh@dbs.com Charts of the month Export

More information

Indonesia chart book Consumption trumps weak trade

Indonesia chart book Consumption trumps weak trade Economics Indonesia chart book Consumption trumps weak trade Group Research 7 August 2018 Radhika Rao Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +65 68785281 violetleeyh@dbs.com 2Q GDP

More information

Economics Hong Kong chart book HKD rates are sensitive to rising USD rates

Economics Hong Kong chart book HKD rates are sensitive to rising USD rates Economics Hong Kong chart book HKD rates are sensitive to rising USD rates Group Research 11 October 218 Samuel Tse Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 6878281 violetleeyh@dbs.com

More information

Economics SG: risks beneath the GDP figures

Economics SG: risks beneath the GDP figures Economics SG: risks beneath the GDP figures DBS Group Research 18 August 216 Headline growth has been weak. Things may be worse under the hood Two consecutive quarters of contraction in the services sector

More information

Economics IDR towards further resilience

Economics IDR towards further resilience towards further resilience Sep Economics towards further resilience DBS Group Research September The Indonesian rupiah has recovered from its Sep bottom and moved back into the lower half of its ascending

More information

Thailand chart book Asia s safe haven

Thailand chart book Asia s safe haven Economics Thailand chart book Asia s safe haven Group Research 11 October 2018 Radhika Rao Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +65 68785281 violetleeyh@dbs.com Thai markets have

More information

Japan: The impact of QQE2

Japan: The impact of QQE2 JP: The impact of QQE2 7 November 214 Economics Japan: The impact of QQE2 DBS Group Research 7 November 214 The BOJ will expand its quantitative and qualitative (QQE) program The yen has fallen and the

More information

Taiwan & Korea: how low can rates go?

Taiwan & Korea: how low can rates go? Economics Taiwan & Korea: how low can rates go? DBS Group Research 7 July 216 Taiwan s and Korea s central banks have both cut rates by 2bps this year. Further cuts are possible given a sluggish growth

More information

Global rates roundup / chart-pack

Global rates roundup / chart-pack Interest rate strategy Global rates roundup / chart-pack DBS Group Research 25 April 217 The first round of the French presidential election has increased the odds of a market-friendly outcome at the run-off

More information

China chart book Slowing growth and weakening sentiments

China chart book Slowing growth and weakening sentiments Economics China chart book Slowing growth and weakening sentiments Group Research 13 November 1 Nathan Chow Strategist/Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee + 71 violetleeyh@dbs.com

More information

India budget: stability over growth

India budget: stability over growth Economics India budget: stability over growth DBS Group Research 12 January 217 India is likely to meet its fiscal deficit target of 3.5 for FY16/17 on higher revenues In targeting a narrower deficit of

More information

DBS Focus Malaysia: Beyond the election and politics

DBS Focus Malaysia: Beyond the election and politics Economics DBS Focus Malaysia: Beyond the election and politics Group Research 4 May 218 Irvin Seah Senior Economist In the previous election in 213, PM Najib s coalition won 133 out of a total of 222 parliamentary

More information

Economics Taiwan: diversifying into Southeast Asia

Economics Taiwan: diversifying into Southeast Asia Economics Taiwan: diversifying into Southeast Asia DBS Group Research October 6 Taiwan s direct investment in the ASEAN-6 has doubled over the past five years and has plenty of room to grow further China

More information

South Korea chart book Pre-emptively dovish

South Korea chart book Pre-emptively dovish Economics South Korea chart book Pre-emptively dovish Group Research 5 September 1 Ma Tieying Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +5 751 violetleeyh@dbs.com Charts of the month Exports

More information

Taiwan: 5 things you need to know about the aging population

Taiwan: 5 things you need to know about the aging population Economics Taiwan: 5 things you need to know about the aging population DBS Group Research 18 August 216 Taiwan s population is aging fast. The working age population will begin to shrink this year; the

More information

China chart book Weakening policy transmission

China chart book Weakening policy transmission Economics China chart book Weakening policy transmission Group Research 9 October 1 Nathan Chow Strategist/Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee + 71 violetleeyh@dbs.com Charts of

More information

Global rates roundup / chart-pack

Global rates roundup / chart-pack Global rates roundup 1 Aug 216 Interest rate strategy Global rates roundup / chart-pack DBS Group Research 1 August 216 NIRP and QE are in full swing. However, aside from the Bank of England, room for

More information

Asian Currency Research SGD: unappreciated

Asian Currency Research SGD: unappreciated Asian Currency Research SGD: unappreciated DBS Group Research 22 May 214 Contrary to consensus expectations, the Singapore dollar did not fall past to the US dollar Over the past 2-3 years, the SGD has

More information

Daily Breakfast Spread

Daily Breakfast Spread Economics, Currencies & Rates Daily Breakfast Spread DBS Group Research 5 April 2017 Economics US Fed expectations Implied fed funds rate Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Market Current 0.98 1.11 1.24 1wk ago 0.97 1.08

More information

India: harnessing demographic strength

India: harnessing demographic strength Economics India: harnessing demographic strength DBS Group Research 27 July 215 India s population will surpass China s within a decade The workforce will grow faster than population overall But this could

More information

Asia: breaking new new ground

Asia: breaking new new ground Economics Asia: breaking new new ground DBS Group Research 11 May 1 Asia s exports continue to advance at an 8% pace. It s not the % pace of yesteryear but it s respectable given the sluggish global economy

More information

Asia Markets & Outlook Update November 2018

Asia Markets & Outlook Update November 2018 Asia Markets & Outlook Update November 21 Trade War August is the first month for which trade data fully reflect the first round of US tariffs on $5 billion worth of Chinese imports On 2th September the

More information

Economics DBS Focus Taiwan in 2018/19: A broader, more palpable recovery

Economics DBS Focus Taiwan in 2018/19: A broader, more palpable recovery Economics DBS Focus Taiwan in 8/9: A broader, more palpable recovery Group Research 6 December Ma Tieying Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 68788 violetleeyh@dbs.com Forecast

More information

SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN GENERAL

SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN GENERAL IMF upgraded ASEAN GDP growth forecast for ASEAN economies to benefit from strong economic growth in China The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently upgraded ASEAN GDP growth projection for in its

More information

Chart of the Week: Volatility has eased, but for how long?

Chart of the Week: Volatility has eased, but for how long? Economics Chart of the Week: Volatility has eased, but for how long? Group Research 13 August 2018 Irvin Seah Economist irvinseah@dbs.com Key Events: The Singapore economy grew 3.9% YoY (DBSf: 4.0%) in

More information

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN BOT raised GDP growth forecasts for and 2018 BOT kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% for eighteen straight month Bank of Thailand (BOT) maintained its policy rate, i.e. one-day repurchase rate, at 1.5%

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover

More information

Taiwan: 7 likely outcomes in 2017

Taiwan: 7 likely outcomes in 2017 Taiwan: likely outcomes in 1 1 November 1 Economics Taiwan: likely outcomes in 1 DBS Group Research 1 November 1 The economy will grow by about % in 1, faster than in 1 but still below potential The labour

More information

Vietnam grew quicker than expected in 3Q

Vietnam grew quicker than expected in 3Q September 9, 1 Global Markets Research Economics - Vietnam Vietnam grew quicker than expected in 3Q Vietnam s economy grew.93 in the past nine months (1H: +.) as momentum in the manufacturing and services

More information

Investment Strategy Note 24 Nov 2015

Investment Strategy Note 24 Nov 2015 India: muddling through a difficult environment India remains a long term positive story based on its economic and demographic potential despite disappointments in the recent pace of recovery. The global

More information

DBS Focus Hong Kong: Stormy Seas Ahead

DBS Focus Hong Kong: Stormy Seas Ahead Economics DBS Focus Hong Kong: Stormy Seas Ahead Group Research October 218 Samuel Tse Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 6878281 violetleeyh@dbs.com Hong Kong s economy is facing

More information

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy

More information

Economics Brexit first impact

Economics Brexit first impact Economics Brexit first impact DBS Group Research June 16 UK voted to leave the European Union on 3 Jun. The final tally was 51.9% to 8.1% in favour of the exit GBP/USD plunged 1.5% to a low of 1.3 around

More information

DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises (DRIVE) - 2Q14

DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises (DRIVE) - 2Q14 DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises (DRIVE) - 2Q14 DBS Group Research 20 Aug 2014 Chris Leung (852) 3668 5694 chrisleung@dbs.com Nathan Chow (852) 3668 5693 nathanchow@dbs.com Lily Lo (852) 3668 5695

More information

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017 GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH July 2017 Positive global outlook, with projections revised across areas The global outlook remains positive. Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at 1% QoQ in,

More information

THANH CONG SECURITIES COMPANY Floor 3&5, Centec Tower, Nguyen Thi Minh Khai, Dis.3, HCMC Phone : + 84 (08) Website:

THANH CONG SECURITIES COMPANY Floor 3&5, Centec Tower, Nguyen Thi Minh Khai, Dis.3, HCMC Phone : + 84 (08) Website: THANH CONG SECURITIES COMPANY Floor 3&5, Centec Tower, 72-74 Nguyen Thi Minh Khai, Dis.3, HCMC Phone : + 84 (08) 3 827 0527 Website: www.tcsc.vn MONTHLY REPORT JULY 2012 Research Department research@tcsc.vn

More information

Asia Bond Monitor June 2018

Asia Bond Monitor June 2018 September 8 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Japan s industrial production fell.% on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis but rose.% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in

More information

Managing Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia

Managing Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia Managing Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia Dr. Hartadi A. Sarwono Deputy Governor IIF Asian Regional Economic Forum Singapore, March 5, 2009 Outline 2 1. Crisis highlights 2. Macroconomic Condition

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018 7 December 8 Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets T he monetary board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas decided to keep its key policy rates steady during its final meeting for the year on

More information

The FDI-driven export growth story continues to power ahead despite the US withdrawal from TPP

The FDI-driven export growth story continues to power ahead despite the US withdrawal from TPP Vietnam s economy grew 6.2% yoy in 2016, versus 6.7% in 2015, weighed down by a slowdown in the agriculture and mining sectors. There was a further moderation to 5.1% growth in 1Q17. Nonetheless, on the

More information

MONTHLY REPORT D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E. October October Outlook: Moderating Trade

MONTHLY REPORT D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E. October October Outlook: Moderating Trade MONTHLY REPORT D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E /132/to/217 October 217 TRADE OUTLOOK October Outlook: Moderating Trade Indonesia posted its largest trade surplus for the year in August,

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018 January 9 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Japan s November industrial production was revised upward to.% year-on-year (y-o-y) from the preliminary estimate of.%

More information

.Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives

.Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives .Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives How important is NEER to export growth? Strategies on Macro / FX/ Rates 1 April 2016 Non-conventional policies have resulted in non-normal consequences Currency

More information

Monthly Economic Insight

Monthly Economic Insight Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.

More information

Monthly Outlook. June Summary

Monthly Outlook. June Summary Monthly Outlook June 2015 Summary Yields of US Treasuries (USTs) rallied in May, with the 2-year and 10-year yields up 4 and 9 basis points (bps) respectively as compared to end-april levels. During the

More information

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai

More information

2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500. May-13. Jun-13. Apr-13. Feb-13. Mar-13

2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500. May-13. Jun-13. Apr-13. Feb-13. Mar-13 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 QUARTERLY REVIEW June 213 ECONOMIC REPORT The End of Euphoria Perception vs.

More information

SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL GENERAL

SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL GENERAL 4 August ASEAN manufacturing PMI fell below 50 in July Drop in Asean s manufacturing PMI may be due to seasonal factors IHS Markit s ASEAN Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in

More information

Japan Chart Book. 5 February 2014

Japan Chart Book. 5 February 2014 Japan Chart Book 5 February Japan: Economic Forecast Dashboard Forecast highlights Real GDP growth forecast at. in and. in 5 Slower consumption in -5 but offset by improved exports and investment Gradual

More information

CNH: billion dollar baby

CNH: billion dollar baby Interest rate strategy CNH: billion dollar baby DBS Group Research 16 November 215 The IMF is likely to include the CNY into the SDR on 3 Nov. If so, the new SDR will be operational by 1 Oct 216 In the

More information

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN GENERAL

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN GENERAL Bank Indonesia cut its reference rate by 25bps to 6.5% This was in tandem with slower global growth and Fed pause on rate Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly cut BI reference rate by 25bps to 6.5% on the

More information

Singapore Budget 2019: Deepening enterprise capabilities, strengthening social support

Singapore Budget 2019: Deepening enterprise capabilities, strengthening social support Economics & Strategy Singapore Budget 2019: Deepening enterprise capabilities, strengthening social support Group Research 19 February 2019 Irvin Seah Senior Economist While facing external headwinds,

More information

Economic and market snapshot for January 2016

Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 From left to right: Herman van Papendorp (Head of Macro Research and Asset Allocation), Sanisha Packirisamy (Economist) Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 Global economic developments United

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018 January 9 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets L ast week, the Philippines raised USD. billion from the sale of -year global bonds priced at basis points above benchmark

More information

Asia Bond Monitor March 2015

Asia Bond Monitor March 2015 June 1 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Consumer price inflation in Malaysia accelerated to.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May from 1.8% y-o-y in April, mainly due

More information

MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK February 2018

MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK February 2018 MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK February 2018 1.0 Fixed Income Economics During the month, Malaysia s 4Q2017 GDP was released. Real Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) grew 5.9% YoY, slightly slower than the 6.2% recorded

More information

DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises (DRIVE) - 2Q13

DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises (DRIVE) - 2Q13 DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises (DRIVE) - 2Q13 DBS Group Research 16 August 2013 Chris Leung (852) 3668 5694 chrisleung@dbs.com Nathan Chow (852) 3668 5693 nathanchow@dbs.com Lily Lo (852) 3668

More information

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an

More information

Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811)

Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811) wider Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811) Vol.: ER/009/2018 Capital Flows, Renminbi & the Ringgit Trend Economic Research Led By: Nor Zahidi Alias Chief Economist +603 2717 2936 zahidi@marc.com.my

More information

1. Macroeconomic Highlights

1. Macroeconomic Highlights 1. Macroeconomic Highlights ht Macroeconomic Highlights Resilient growth over the last 2 years, despite the global economic slowdown Banking industry robust with high level of CAR and low NPLN. In 2008

More information

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27

More information

MONTHLY REPORT D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E. November October Outlook: to Edge Higher

MONTHLY REPORT D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E. November October Outlook: to Edge Higher MONTHLY REPORT D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E /135/to/217 November 217 TRADE OUTLOOK October Outlook: to Edge Higher In September 217, exports fell 4.5 percent mom (+15.7% yoy) to

More information

India chart book Volatility overshadows growth

India chart book Volatility overshadows growth Economics India chart book Volatility overshadows growth Group Research 15 October 2018 Radhika Rao Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +65 68785281 violetleeyh@dbs.com Benign food

More information

Inflation Outlook and Monetary Easing

Inflation Outlook and Monetary Easing Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Inflation Outlook and Monetary Easing Although annual consumer price inflation rose for a second consecutive month in July, the underlying trend

More information

Macro outlook March 2019

Macro outlook March 2019 Macro outlook 219 March 219 Asia: Brace, brace Asia has started to loose some steam of late PMI manufacturing orders (3 mma) 54 53 52 51 5 49 48 47 46 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16

More information

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG GENERAL

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG GENERAL 8 September ASEAN manufacturing PMI rose above 50 in August Indonesia inflation rate slowed slightly to 3.82% ASEAN purchasing managers index (PMI) rose above 50 level to 50.4 in August, after falling

More information

Markets at a Glance. India Q2 CY For Distributors use only

Markets at a Glance. India Q2 CY For Distributors use only Markets at a Glance India Q CY 17 For Distributors use only India Macro Economy Trade Inflation Monetary Sector Valuations Liquidity Macro Economy GDP Emerging vs Developed (In % YoY) Credit Growth vs

More information

Malaysia Bond Flows Update

Malaysia Bond Flows Update Malaysia Bond Flows Update Foreign net selloff lower in August, foreign buying to increase on improving fundamentals Economics Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad T: 603-2172 0880 OVERVIEW Foreign selloff moderated.

More information

VND to Depreciate Gradually in 2009

VND to Depreciate Gradually in 2009 FX Alert Vietnamese Dong Analysts Callum Henderson*, +65 6530 3282 Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Head of FX Strategy Callum.Henderson@standardchartered.com Thomas Harr, +65 6530 3617 Standard Chartered

More information

FX-Insights. USD/MYR: A Tempered Rise MACRO FX RESEARCH MYR. September 16, 2014

FX-Insights. USD/MYR: A Tempered Rise MACRO FX RESEARCH MYR. September 16, 2014 MACRO FX RESEARCH MYR FX-Insights September 16, 2014 USD/MYR: A Tempered Rise MYR reversed out much of its 3Q gains against the USD by 15 Sep and was last seen around the 3.23-figure. The pair has been

More information

Chartering a new fiscal course

Chartering a new fiscal course Early Warning Briefing Note issued: October 31 st, 2017 Economic, Banking & Industry Research of BCA Group - DKP Chartering a new fiscal course Executive Summary: APBN 2018 is set with a relatively narrow

More information

Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO)

Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Special Edition ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) Singapore January 2018 This Monthly Update of the AREO was prepared by the Regional

More information

3Q18 Current Account Surplus Lowest Since 3Q16 amid Continued Deficit in Services

3Q18 Current Account Surplus Lowest Since 3Q16 amid Continued Deficit in Services n ECONOMIC REPORT Balance of Payment 21 November 218 3Q18 Current Account Surplus Lowest Since 3Q16 amid Continued Deficit in Services Malaysia s current account surplus at 9-quarter low. Current account

More information

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC AND CURRENCY ANALYSIS 2015 REVIEW AND 2016 OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC AND CURRENCY ANALYSIS 2015 REVIEW AND 2016 OUTLOOK A REPORT OF MACROECONOMICS GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC AND CURRENCY ANALYSIS 2015 REVIEW AND 2016 OUTLOOK A FORECAST ON VND/USD WITH REGARD TO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS November 5, 2015 YEN TRAN [E] haiyentran.t@gmail.com

More information

Recent Economic Developments

Recent Economic Developments REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Recent Economic Developments January, 2010 Published by Investors Relations Unit Republic of Indonesia Address Bank Indonesia International Directorate Investor Relations Unit Sjafruddin

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable

More information

Vietnam Economy and Stock Market FY2018 outlook

Vietnam Economy and Stock Market FY2018 outlook Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation Vietnam Economy and Stock Market FY2018 outlook Fiachra Mac Cana Head of Research and Managing Director www.hsc.com.vn Macro Outlook the cyclical recovery to continue

More information

Mongolia Economic Brief

Mongolia Economic Brief September 216 http://www.worldbank.org/mongolia Mongolia Economic Brief The budget deficit sharply rose in the first seven months of 216 amid spending increases and revenue shortfalls. The deficit reached

More information

AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS

AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY 9 January 7 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Consumer price inflation in Indonesia eased to.% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December from.6% y-o-y

More information

Source: BI, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research

Source: BI, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Macro Note Indonesia: Portfolio Capital Flows Ahead Of Fed s 18 Rate Outlook Tuesday, 1 November

More information

Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member

Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member This material must be read in conjunction with the disclosure statement. 9 April 2018 PRESENTED BY: MARKUS SCHOMER Chief Economist PineBridge Investments

More information

Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year

Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year ECONOMIC REPORT Business & Consumer Confidence 17 April 2018 Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year MIER s CSI rebounded to 3.5-year high. Underpin by

More information

AFC VIETNAM FUND UPDATE

AFC VIETNAM FUND UPDATE Fund Category Country Focus Subscriptions Redemptions Benchmark Fund Manager Investment Manager Investment Advisor Vietnam Public Equities Vietnam Monthly at NAV (five business days before month end) Monthly

More information

Japanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views - August

Japanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views - August Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views - August 2016 - Executive summary Japanese Economy PM Abe announced yen 28 trillion fiscal stimulus, among which central and local government

More information

Daily FX Focus 19/3/2015

Daily FX Focus 19/3/2015 Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus 19/3/215 The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product

More information

DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises (DRIVE) - 2Q15

DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises (DRIVE) - 2Q15 DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises (DRIVE) - 2Q15 DBS Group Research 11 Aug 2015 Chris Leung (852) 3668 5694 chrisleung@dbs.com Nathan Chow (852) 3668 5693 nathanchow@dbs.com 2Q15 DRIVE reading rose

More information

2018 The year of promise

2018 The year of promise 2018 The year of promise January 2018 Tushar Pradhan, Chief Investment Officer We have come a long way in 2017 Source: Kotak Institutional Equities Dec 2017 Key events and performance of the Indian market

More information

Asia Watch. Trade tensions risk to solid outlook. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions.

Asia Watch. Trade tensions risk to solid outlook. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions. Asia Watch Group Economics Emerging Markets Research 1 March 1 Arjen van Dijkhuizen Senior Economist Tel: +31 5 arjen.van.dijkhuizen@nl.abnamro.com Trade tensions risk to solid outlook Growth EM Asia up

More information

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond

More information

Japanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views - November

Japanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views - November Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views - November 05 - Executive summary Japanese Economy Japanese economy is likely to stay under pressure from sluggish external demand for a while.

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. May 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. May 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch May 2018 BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Eurozone: more moderate growth with higher uncertainty The eurozone GDP growth slowed in more than expected. Beyond temporary

More information

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to

More information

Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016

Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016 Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016 Q1 2016 The past year turned out to be a year where one of the oldest investment adages came true: Sell in May and go away, don t come back until St.

More information

Regional Economic Outlook

Regional Economic Outlook Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Azim Sadikov International Monetary Fund Resident Representative November 6, 2013 Outline Global Outlook CCA: Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks

More information

Asian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms

Asian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms Asian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms One of the commonalities between most Asian governments is the dedicated commitment they have in using policies and initiatives

More information

Monthly Outlook SEPTEMBER 2013

Monthly Outlook SEPTEMBER 2013 Monthly Outlook SEPTEMBER 2013 In August, the yield curve of US Treasuries continued to steepen as the likelihood of the US Fed tapering to start before year-end became stronger. Asian Local Currency fund

More information