Al Maha Market EYE. ~Warren Buffett. Global markets & Commodities Watch GLOBAL NEWS WATCH
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1 8-May-11 The key to investing is determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage. ~Warren Buffett Al Maha EYE Global markets & Commodities Watch GLOBAL NEWS WATCH International Indices Index Value % Change USA Dow Jones 12, % S&P 500 1, % NASDAQ 2, % EUROPE FTSE 100 5, % CAC 40 4, % DAX 30 ASIA 7, % NIKKEI 9, % Hang Seng 23, % Strait Times 3, % Regional Indices Index Value % Change Muscat Stock 6, % Saudi Arabia 6, % Dubai 1, % Abu Dhabi 2, % Kuwait (Price Index) 6, % Bahrain 1, % Qatar 8, % Commodities Crude Oil ($/bbl) Close % Change Nymex Future % Brent % WTI % Metals Close % Change Gold $/OZ 1, % Silver $/OZ % Aluminum $/T 2, % Copper $/T 8, % Nickel $/T 24, % Forex Cross Currency Rates for Major currencies Currency $ Rs US $ Indian Rupees (Rs) Sterling ( ) Euro ( ) Japanese Yen ( ) U.S. stocks retreat most since March after global commodity prices slump U.S. stocks fell last week, sending the Standard & Poor s 500 Index to the biggest drop since March, as the largest commodities slump in two years drove down energy and raw - materials producers. The S&P 500 pared its weekly loss on Friday, gaining 0.4 percent after April job growth topped economists estimates. The S&P 500 lost 1.7 percent to 1, last week, including four straight declines. The Dow fell points, or 1.3 percent, to 12, Energy stocks in the S&P 500 sank 7 percent, the biggest loss among 10 industries and the largest retreat for the group since May Asia stocks fall, erasing this year s gain, as U.S. economic outlook wanes Asian stocks fell last week, with the regional benchmark index falling by the most in six weeks, as U.S. economic data and plunging commodity prices added to signs the recovery in the global economy is weakening. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.4 percent to last week. The gauge gained 0.5 percent the previous week. Service industries in the U.S. expanded in April at the slowest pace in eight months as companies cut back in response to higher energy costs, according to the Institute for Supply Management s index of U.S. non-manufacturing companies published on May 4. Applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly jumped by 43,000 to 474,000 in the week ended April 30, the most since August, Labor Department figures showed on May 5. Silver bounces from 12 pct fall, gold inches up Silver rebounded on Friday from its biggest one-day dollar fall since 1980, and gold also recovered as cheaper prices lured in Asian investors. Spot silver slumped by 12 percent on Thursday after another margin hike by the CME Group on its COMEX silver futures increased the cost of the trading the metal, dragging gold down 3 percent. COMEX silver fell more than 5 percent to $34.27 in early trade, before regaining some ground to $ Spot gold rose by more than 1 percent to $1, an ounce. JP Morgan raises oil price forecasts citing supply woes JP Morgan Chase raised its oil price forecasts because Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers are not matching rising demand and consumers will take time to react to higher prices. The Bank boosted its 2011 Brent crude forecast to $120 a barrel from $110 and changed its estimate for West Texas intermediate crude to $ from $99. Forecasts for 2012 prices were raised to $120 and $114, respectively. JP Morgan forecasts supply to fall short of demand by 600,000 barrels a day during the third quarter, even with the assumption that the Opec increases output by 1.2 million barrels a day in the coming months. GCC Returns (YTD) Currency Rates against OMR Currency Close % Change OMR/ $ % OMR/ % OMR/ % OMR/ % OMR/ Rs % Debt market Interest Rates LIBOR EURIBOR 1M 3M 6M 1Y 0.213% 0.274% 0.433% 0.762% 1.250% 1.415% 1.700% 2.157% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Muscat Stock -6.16% Saudi Arabia Dubai Abu Dhabi Kuwait (Price Index) -1.15% -1.42% -0.82% -6.32% Bahrain Qatar -2.73% -2.64% Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Zawya, MSM Data as on 9.00 AM, 8-May-11-8%
2 Round up REGIONAL & OMAN NEWS WATCH Al Maha Equity Research - EYE MSM Indices Movement Index MSM 30 Banking & Investments Services &Insurance Industry MSM Sectorial Snapshot Index MSM 30 Banking & Investments Industry Services &Insurance 5-May-11 Last Close Prev. Close Change % Change 6, , % 7, , % 2, , % 6, , % Mcap (RO Dividend P/E P/BV '000) Yield 5,460, % 3,139, % 765, % 1,555, % Net Position Nationality Buy Sell Net Buy / Vol (%) Val (%) Vol (%) Val (%) Sell OMANIS % % % % % GCC 2.77 % 5.98 % 9.41 % % % ARABS 0.44 % 0.98 % 2.52 % 5.14 % -4.16% OTHERS % % 1.60 % 2.61 % 28.99% MSM Movers Stock Taageer Right Issue Nat. Mineral Water United Power Bank Dhofar Ominvest MSM Shakers Stock National Securities Onic. Holding Oman Fisheries United Finance Renaissance Services MSM Volume Leaders Stock Taageer Right Issue Bank Muscat Ominvest Oman Int. Bk. Oman Inv. & Fin. MSM Value Leaders Stock Close % Change Bank Muscat Ominvest Renaissance Services Omantel Nawras Close % Change Volume % 4,048, % % 61, % % 13, % % 10, % % 861, % Close % Change Volume % 108, % % 27, % % 11, % % 45, % % 273, % Close % Change Volume % 4,048, % % 1,534, % % 861, % % 647, % % 412, % Turnover % 1,179, % % 443, % % 277, % % 268, % % 181, % Breadth Advances 14 Declines 11 REGIONAL Dubai economy to rebound: IIF Dubai s economy is set to bounce back with a projected 3.5 per cent growth in 2011 as the turmoil in the Arab world would indirectly boost the UAE overall economy, Institute of International Finance said. UAE growth is expected to accelerate from 2.7 per cent in 2010 to 3.8 per cent in 2011 and to 4.0 per cent in IIF said the UAE, the second largest Arab economy after Saudi Arabia, would boost its economy through higher production of crude oil in Abu Dhabi, larger revenues due to a spike in oil prices and a diversion to the country of some of the regional trade, transportation, tourism, and finance. OMAN Oman s oil output up 2.7% in first quarter Oman boosted its oil production by around 2.7 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2011 as the non-opec Gulf country is pushing ahead with a project to expand its hydrocarbon sector, official data showed on Saturday. From around 861,400 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2010, the country s crude production grew to nearly 884,900 bpd in the first quarter of this year, the Omani oil ministry said in a new report. The price of Omani crude jumped to nearly $92.5 a barrel in the first quarter of this year from around $77.04 in the first quarter of Oman s gas production also edged up by around 1.4 per cent to 2,884 million cubic metres in the first quarter of 2011 from about 2,844 million cubic metres in the first quarter of Average daily gas output stood at nearly 93 million cubic metres in March compared with 91.7 million cubic metres in the same period of Oman National Engineering and Investment Company bags tender worth RO 1.8 million The Public Authority for Electricity & Water has awarded Oman National Engineering & Investment Company SAOG the contract for construction of Murati Desalination Plant at Al Wssta for the sum of RO 1.8 million. The project is for a period of nine months. Galfar Engineering & Contracting announces initial results for the quarter ended March 2011 Galfar Engineering & Contracting SAOG reported a net profit of Ro 1.4 million for the quarter ended March 2011 compared to a loss of RO 844 thousand for the same period last year. The Company s Contract and other income amounted to RO 79.5 million for the three months as against RO 89.6 million for the corresponding three months in MSM Returns (YTD) 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% % % % -6.16% -6.60% 0.23% MSM Banking Industry Services Activity Statistics Traded volume Turnover R.O 10,964,153 3,454, % % Sources:Bloomberg,Reuters,Zawya,MSM
3 Al Maha Financial Services LLC Al Maha Technical Research MSM General Index , ,400 6,298 6,398 6, MSM General Index ended flat on Thursday's session at , with a marginal gain of 0.11% and with volumes of million shares traded. continued the flat move last week, recording a marginal positive change of 0.05% while foreign investors stood as net buyers. The interim weakness of the market is likely to continue with the index staying below 25 week's moving average with downward sloping weekly MACD. Ominvest (OMVS) Ominvest closed last trading session at 0.515, gaining 1.58% with relatively high volumes of million shares traded on the counter. OMVS shows positive outlook after showing a break out last week from it's wedge pattern, recording a weekly gain of 4.46%. The advancing daily MACD,RSI and ADX point to continuation of the up move for the scrip. Immediate resistance for the stock is likely at levels. Source:Tickerchart Al Maha Financial Services LLC
4 Al Maha Financial Services LLC ` Al Maha Technical Research Renaissance Services (RNSS) Renaissance Services closed Thursday's session at loosing 0.78% with million shares traded. RNSS shows a weak structure on charts with it's descending triangle pattern formation and by slipping below 25 week's moving average. However, movements of key indicators on short term charts suggest limited down side for the scrip level continues as a strong support for Renaissance. Bank Dhofar (BKDB) Bank Dhofar ended the previous trading session at 0.660, gaining 1.7% with10 thousand shares changing hands. BKDB demonstrates a flat trend with the sideways movement of momentum indicators. Movements of key trend, directional indicators and lacking volume support at the counter suggest limited probability for a sharp up move for the scrip. The stock is likely to test the immediate resistance at Source:Tickerchart Al Maha Financial Services LLC
5 MSM Corporate Score Sheet Company Price Revenue Net Profit EPS PE Face Cap Result as on (Values in RO '000) 5-May-11 Value Capital FY 2010 Y-o-Y % Y-o-Y % Net Worth BVPS PBV FY 2010 FY10 (FY 10) Change. Change. Banks & Inv. Holding National Bank of Oman , , Dec-10 78,100-5% 27,200 29% , % Bank Muscat ,837 1,189, Dec ,195 7% 101,700 38% , % Ahli Bank , , Dec-10 19,364 42% 14,100 65% , Bank Sohar , , Dec-10 30,595 34% 10,220 27% , % Bank Dhofar , , Dec-10 57,251 16% 33,280 31% , % Oman International Bank , , Dec-10 29,839-6% 17,585-18% , % Ominvest , , Dec-10 54,122 7% 11,959 5% , % ONIC Holding ,342 49, Dec-10 2, % 13, % , Al Anwar Holding* ,000 12, Dec-10 7,251 3% (213) -106% NA 18, NA Oman and Emirates Hldg ,188 17, Dec % % , NA Oman Inv. & Finance* ,000 24, Dec-10 15,403-16% 2,442-3% , Financial Services ,500 6, Dec % (700) -374% NA 7, NA Gulf Inv. Services ,023 10, Dec-10 1,654-18% % , NA DIDIC , , Dec-10 21, % 18,461 89% , % Global Investment ,000 17, Dec-10 3,935-30% % , Aggregate ,019, % Industry Oman Cement , , Dec-10 62,523-13% 24,505 1% , % Raysut Cement , , Dec-10 64,978-27% 20,722-28% , % Oman Flour Mills** ,750 91, Dec-10 23, % 3,211-39% , Al Hassan Engineering ,521 36, Dec-10 60,246 12% 2,710 1% , % Al Anwar Ceramic ,469 55, Dec-10 17,398 10% 5,353 8% , % Oman Cables ,970 90, Dec ,900 29% 8,100 21% , % Jazeera Steel Product ,490 34, Dec-10 64,912 62% 1, % , % Voltamp Energy ,500 31, Dec-10 13,932 12% 2,442 11% , % National Aluminium ,357 13, Dec-10 20,981-28% 2,146-15% , % Aggregate 765, , , % Services Shell Oman ing , , Dec ,604 8% 13,991 7% , % Al Jazeera Services ,172 22, Dec-10 9,872 15% 1,949-44% , % Renaissance Services , , Dec ,429 2% 27,648 10% , % Omantel , , Dec ,600 1% 112,000 6% , % Oman Fisheries* ,500 15, Dec-10 14,185 51% 1,091-25% , Galfar Engineering , , Dec ,851 11% 5,906 57% , % Aggregate 1,555, , % MSM-30 5,460, ,604 35% 3,240, % Others Dhofar Insurance ,000 37, Dec-10 53,811-8% 3,037-14% , % Oman Oil ing ,450 88, Dec ,200 28% 6,900 29% , % Oman United Insurance ,000 13, Dec-10 20,994 4% 2,788-27% , % Port Services Corp ,504 48, Dec-10 19,139 3% 5,599 4% , % ACWA Power Barka ,000 41, Dec-10 40,210 0% 8,078 0% , % Taageer Finance ,667 17, Dec-10 8,945 2% 2,465 12% , % Dhofar Cattlefeed ,700 9, Dec-10 22,523 3% % , Majan Glass ,322 19, Dec-10 9,846-7% 2,751-11% , % Oman Chlorine ,883 21, Dec-10 5,878 7% 2,557 3% , % Construction Material ,500 5, Dec-10 3,377 11% % , Salalah Mills ,125 35, Dec-10 29,199 7% 3, % , % Nawras , , Dec ,900 10% 50,000 20% , % * FY March.** FY June Source:MSM Note : PBV based on the latest available Financial Statements Al Maha Equity Research - EYE Dividend Yield (FY 10)
6 Al Maha Equity Research - EYE PO Box 1065 PC 117, Al Wadi Al Kabir, Sultanate of Oman Contacts Telephone Research: Suresh Kumar suresh@almahafinancial.com Radhika Gadhia radhika@almahafinancial.com Khushboo Badlani khushboo@almahafinancial.com Institutional Sales: A. S. Kedarnath kedar@almahafinancial.com Steven Noronha steven@almahafinancial.com Brokerage: Abdullah Al Hinai abdullah@almahafinancial.com Mahmoud Al Hamsaidi mahmoud@almahafinancial.com Nasser Al Banna nasser@alamahfinancial.com Disclaimer The information contained in this report has been obtained from the sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but which may not be verified independently. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above report, Al Maha Financial Services LLC makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, whether expressed or implied, and accepts no responsibility or liability to its accuracy and completeness of the data, being provided. Opinion expressed is our current opinion as of the date appearing on this material only. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views expressed in this document. The investments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all the investors. Investors must take their own decision based on their specific investment objectives and financial position, and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments, to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall against the interest of investors. This document is strictly for the use of recipients only. None of the material provided herein may be reproduced, rewritten, rehashed, published, resold or distributed in any manner whatsoever without the prior and explicit written permission of
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