Award Winner 2010 Excellence in Brokerage Business Awarded for Research Promotion and Website Content

Transcription

1 Award Winner 2010 Excellence in Brokerage Business Awarded for Research Promotion and Website Content By Muscat Securities Market Banking Sector Performance Overview Nine months ended September 2011

2 Content Omani Banking Sector... Performance Overview... Profitability... Shift in Income Pattern Operating Efficiency. Interest Spread Net Interest Margin Returns. Market Share Credit - Deposit Movement of Listed Banks. Growth in Corporate and Consumer loans. Liability Mix. Valuations & Outlook Page 2 of 17

3 Omani Banking Sector Banking sector enjoys a dominant position in the Muscat Securities Market. The six listed banks namely Bank Muscat, Bank Dhofar, National Bank of Oman, Oman International Bank, Ahli Bank and Bank Sohar together have more than 45% weightage on the benchmark MSM-30 General Index. Also, these six banks account for around 48% of the total market capitalization of the Index. Of the overall banking universe which comprise of a total of 17 players including the seven local and ten foreign banks, these six listed banks act as a true representative of the sector. Supported by the accommodative monetary situation, increase in government spending and mega projects in the pipeline, banking sector demonstrated a robust performance during the nine months ended 30 September 2011.The total assets of the commercial banks increased by 9.5 percent to reach RO 17,203.6 million as on 30 September 2011 compared to RO 15,705.3 million, a year ago. The overall banking sector witnessed a healthy credit growth of 12.4% yearon-year to reach RO 11,882.2 million at the end of September In order to support funding and strengthen asset growth banks are increasing their capital. Bank Muscat recently announced its plan to raise RO100 million through a rights issue in the second quarter of next year. Similarly, Bank Dhofar has raised RO50 million subordinated loan for a tenor of 5 years and one month. The new capital will help the banks to expand their loan portfolio and meet the high demand for credit coming from big projects. Rating agency Standard & Poor's has recently upgraded Oman's Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) rating to Group 4 from Group 5. Group 1 is the lowest-risk banking system, as per the agency. Hence, after the upgrade, Oman stands with Brazil, Kuwait, Malaysia, South Africa and Taiwan in Group 4. The rating agency also upgraded Oman's economic risk score to 4 from 6 and assigned an overall industry score of 4. The up gradation of Oman s ratings indicates a good track record of the regulator, adequate regulation and supervision gradually aligning with international standards. This rating upgrade is expected to be a confidence builder for the players and attract local as well as foreign investors. Recently, Oman has opened its doors to Islamic Banking. Introduction of Islamic Banking services provides opportunity for banks to introduce a larger variety of products and services to customers. Leading players like Bank Muscat and Bank Sohar have started developing the necessary frameworks and training their employees for introduction of Islamic Banking windows. Two new banks, Bank Nizwa and Al Izz International Bank, also are expected to enter this space by floating their initial public offering (IPO) early next year. Page 3 of 17

4 in OMR '000s Al Maha Research Performance Overview Profitability Omani banks showed an impressive performance in the first nine months of this financial year by improving their profitability. The six listed Omani banks together have achieved a year-on-year growth of 19% in net profits in the first nine months of this year. Total profits of the listed banks reached RO179.6 million during the nine months ended 30 September 2011 from RO million reported during the same period last year. Also, all the three quarters of this year witnessed better profitability compared to their respective quarters in the last year. We expect the banking sector to maintain double digit growth for FY ,000 Net Profit of Listed Omani Banks 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000-56,491 63,389 59,725 51,529 49,845 49,455 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter Shift in Income Pattern Banking sector witnessed a shift in the contribution of interest and non interest incomes towards the total operating income during nine months ended 30 September 2011 compared to corresponding period last year. Non-interest income accounted for 22% of the banks total income for the nine months period ended September 2011, against its contribution of 18% for the first nine months of the last year. Page 4 of 17

5 Income Pattern - Banking 9Months Months % 82% 22% 78% Interest Income Non-Interest Income Interest Income Non-Interest Income The total income of the six listed banks showed an increase of 3.7% y-o-y to reach RO 550 million for 9M 11 from RO 530 million in 9M 10. Of the total income, interest income of the banks showed a marginal decline of 1.2% y-o-y during 9M 11 to reach RO 429 million from RO 434 million recorded during 9M 10. However, the non interest income demonstrated a significant increase of 26% y-o-y for 9M 11 to reach RO 121 million as compared to RO 96 million for 9M 10. Rise in investment and dividend income due to better management of investments has resulted in the increase of non-interest income. However, most of the banks reported a year-on-year decline in Fees and Commission income for 9M 2011 as market activity remained subdued during the period. Change in market share of the non-interest income component of listed banks during the above timeline is as below. Market Share of Non Interest Income 9Months Months 2011 BKDB 11% OIBB 8% ABOB 5% BKSB 3% NBOB 19% BKDB 12% OIBB 7% ABOB 5% BKSB 5% NBOB 21% BKMB 54% BKMB 50% Page 5 of 17

6 Operating Efficiency Banking sector showed improvement in operational efficiency during the first nine months period of this year leading to increase in overall profitability. Interest Spread The banking space witnessed marginal improvement in the interest spread irrespective of the drop in yield, as a result of the decline in interest rate. Cost of funds also showed a drop during the first nine months of this financial year compared to the same period last year as a result of banks endeavor to access low cost funds. This has resulted in improvement of the spread from 2.73% in 9M 10 to 2.85% in 9M % 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Interest Spread - Banking Sector 4.2% 3.9% 2.73% 2.85% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 9M M 2011 Yield on Interest Earning Assets Cost of Funds Spread Interest Spread = Yield Cost of funds Yield = Interest Income / Average Interest Earnings Assets Cost of Funds = Interest Expense / Average Interest Bearing Liabilities Bank Muscat recorded the highest interest spread of 3.2% for the period followed by National Bank of Oman at 2.8%. The lower cost of funds owing to the government deposits has helped Bank Muscat to record the highest spread. Interest yields of the six listed banks ranged between 3.1% and 4.4% during the nine month period ended 30 September National Bank of Oman recorded the highest interest yield of 4.4% during the above period, followed by Bank Muscat with its yield of 4%. Page 6 of 17

7 In OMR Billions Al Maha Research Cost of funds of the two emerging banks, Ahli Bank and Bank Sohar were relatively higher compared to the other banks. 3.5% Interest Spreads - Listed Omani Banks 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% ABOB BKSB NBOB BKMB BKDB OIBB 9M M 2011 Sector 9M 2010 Sector 9M 2011 Net Interest Margin The net interest margin of the banking sector remained flat at 2.67% for the nine months ended 30 September 2011 compared to 2.68% for the corresponding period last year Net Interest Margin - Banking Sector 2.68% % M M % 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% Average Interest Earning Assets Net Interest Income Net Interest Margin(RHS) Net Interest Margin = Net Interest Income/ Average Interest Earnings Assets Page 7 of 17

8 Among the listed players, Bank Muscat stood ahead of its peers in terms of net interest margin by showing an improvement to 3% during the first nine months of FY 2011, from 2.8% for the same period last year. It was followed by Bank Dhofar with its net interest margin of 2.85%. Bank Sohar recorded the lowest net interest margin of around 2.2% which is below the peer average of 2.67%. 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Net Interest Margin - Listed Omani Banks ABOB BKSB NBOB BKMB BKDB OIBB 9M M 2011 Sector 9M 2010 Sector 9M 2011 Returns The banking sector witnessed increase in returns during the nine months period ending September 11 as compared to the same period last year. The return on average assets improved from 1.24% in 9M 10 to 1.35% during 9M 11, while the return on average equity of the sector showed a significant improvement from 9.6% to 10.5% during the same period. The increase in returns was a result of improved profitability and better efficiency. Page 8 of 17

9 Returns Banking Sector 1.4% Return on Avg. Assets 11.0% Return on Avg. Equity 1.3% 10.5% 1.2% 1.24% 1.35% 10.0% 9.5% 9.6% 10.5% 1.1% 9M M % 9M M 2011 Returns on Average equity (ROAE) and average assets (ROAA) of the six listed banks during the nine month periods ending September 2010 and 2011 are as below. Returns Listed Omani Banks 16% Return on Avg. Equity 2.0% Return on Avg. Assets 12% 1.6% 8% 1.2% 0.8% 4% 0.4% 0% ABOB BKSB NBOB BKMB BKDB OIBB 0.0% ABOB BKSB NBOB BKMB BKDB OIBB 9M M 2011 Sector 9M 2010 Sector 9M M M 2011 Sector 9M 2010 Sector 9M 2011 Excluding the one-off impact of the loss from the legal case, Bank Dhofar achieved the highest returns on average equity and average assets of 12.9% and 1.7% respectively during the nine months ended September The growth in operating income leading to improved profitability has been translated into high returns by the Bank. Page 9 of 17

10 The return on average equity of Ahli Bank was 12.3% for 9M 11 which is above the peer group average of 10.5%. Though the return on average assets was almost flat over the period at 1.6%, it remained above the peer group average of 1.35%. Bank Muscat witnessed an improvement in its returns and was also marginally above the sector average. The return on average equity increased from 9.8% in 9M 10 to 10.7% in 9M 11 and return on average assets of the bank improved from 1.2% in 9M 10 to 1.38% in 9M 11. The returns on average equity of National Bank of Oman showed a rise from 8.5% in 9M 10 to 10.1% for 9M 11. The bank s return on average assets grew from 1.18% in 9M 10 to 1.40% for 9M 11 which again was above the peer group average. Though Bank Sohar showed an increasing trend in its returns on a y-o-y basis, it remained below the sector average. The return on equity of the bank improved significantly from 7.5% in 9M 10 to 9.3% for 9M 11. The return on assets of Bank Sohar showed a similar trend, increasing from 0.75% in 9M 10 to 0.86% for 9M 11. Oman International Bank is the only listed bank which showed a decline in both RoAE and RoAA on a y-o-y basis. The return on average equity of the bank dropped from 7.7% in 9M 10 to 7.3% during 9M 11 and the return on assets declined from 1.26% of 9M 10 to 1.07% for 9M 11. Market Share The four matured banks namely Bank Muscat, Bank Dhofar, National Bank of Oman and Oman International Bank, together witnessed a minor decline in the market share in terms of gross loans to 83.1% as on September 11, as compared to 83.9% as on September 10. The emerging banks, Ahli Bank and Bank Sohar have improved their combined market share from 16.1% to 16.9% during the same period. However, an opposite trend was seen in the case of customer deposits including certificates of deposits. The matured banks increased their market share to 83% as on September 11 from 82.5%, a year ago while the share of emerging banks dropped from 17.5% to 17% during the same period. Loans & Advances The total loans and advances of the six listed banks stood at RO billion as on September 2011 as compared to RO 9.07 billion a year ago, registering an increase of 14.2% year on year. Page 10 of 17

11 Bank Muscat continued to remain as the market leader in terms of gross loans and advances. The bank s market share grew from 45.3% as on September 10 to 45.8% as on September 11. Oman International Bank underwent a challenging phase during this time with its market share declining to 7% from 7.65% a year ago. Change in market share of listed banks during the one year is as shown below. Market Share of Omani Banks Loans & Advances As on 30 September 2010 As on 30 June 2011 As on 30 September % 7.65% 6.38% 9.74% 16.53% 13.9% 7.1% 7.4% 10.1% 16.3% 14.4% 7.0% 7.2% 9.7% 16.0% 45.30% 45.1% 45.8% Deposits The customer deposits, including certificates of deposits, of the six listed banks stood at RO billion as on September 2011 from RO 8.22 billion a year ago, showing a growth of 24.6% year on year. Bank Muscat maintained its position as the market leader in terms deposits. The bank improved its market share from 42.8% as on September 10 to 46.8% as on September 11. Change in market share of listed banks in terms of deposits collected during this period is as shown below. Page 11 of 17

12 In OMR Billions Al Maha Research Market Share of Omani Banks Deposits As on 30 September 2010 As on 30 June 2011 As on 30 September % 8.9% 6.4% 11.3% 16.3% 12.9% 8.3% 7.1% 10.4% 15.2% 13.2% 7.8% 6.8% 10.2% 15.1% 42.7% 46.0% 46.8% Credit - Deposit Movement of Listed Banks The total credit of listed Omani banks outpaced deposits continuously in the last seven quarters. The total credit of listed banks registered a growth of 14.2%, y-o-y to reach RO billion as on September 2011 whereas the deposits grew at a higher rate of 24.6% y-o-y to reach RO billion at the end of September In the last two quarters, the gap between the credit and deposits narrowed as deposits increased at a higher pace, as a result of banks efforts to build a stable low cost deposit base. Credit - Deposit Movement of Listed Omani Banks Mar'10 June'10 Sept'10 Dec'10 Mar'11 June'11 Sept'11 Credit Deposit Page 12 of 17

13 In OMR Billions In OMR Billions Al Maha Research Majority of the listed banks were aggressive in lending with their credits exceeding the deposits Credit to Deposit Ratio - Listed Omani Banks ABOB BKSB NBOB BKMB BKDB OIBB Credit Deposits Credit to deposit (RHS) Growth in Corporate and Consumer loans The loan book of the banking sector witnessed a healthy growth, both in the corporate and consumer segments, during the last one year. The corporate credit grew by 16.5% y-o-y from RO 5.22 billion as of 30 September 10 to RO 6.08 billion as of 30 September 11, with major companies like Oman Cement, Raysut Cement, Renaissance Services, A Saffa Foods availing credit to fund their capex programmes. The consumer segment witnessed a growth of 12.9%, y- o-y to reach RO 4.28 billion as on September The increase in disposable incomes owing to the hike in remunerations of employees was one of the major drivers for the incremental demand in the retail segment. Corporate & Consumer Loans - Banking Sector Sept '10 Sept '11 Sept '10 Sept '11 Corporate Loans Consumer Loans Page 13 of 17

14 Liability Mix The liability mix of Omani banks constitutes of customer deposits, certificate of deposits, due to banks, other borrowed funds and other liabilities. The total liabilities of the banks increased by 12.3% y-o-y to reach RO 12.2 billion as of September 11 from RO 10.9 billion a year ago. Liability Mix Banking Sector 73% 9M % 17% 2% 82% 9M % 8% 1% 8% 7% Customer deposits remain as the major constituent of the liability mix with 82% of the total share as on September 11. The customer deposits of the six listed banks grew from RO 7.96 billion as at the end of September 10 to RO billion as of a year ago, registering an increase of 26.3% y-o-y and thus making the banks less dependent on borrowings from other banks. The certificates of deposit showed a decline of 40% y-o-y to reach RO 116 million as on 30 September 11 from RO 194 million a year ago. The borrowings from other banks dropped 48% y-o-y mainly due to an increase in deposits. The borrowings from other banks declined from RO 1.85 billion as on 30 September 10 to RO 0.96 billion as on 30 September 11. Although other borrowed funds like subordinated loans, bonds etc constituted to approximately the same 1% of the total liabilities, in terms of value it declined by 4% y- o-y to reach RO 159 million as on 30 September 11. The other liabilities of the banks including subordinated liabilities and taxation showed an increase of 31% y-o-y to reach RO 935 million as on 30 September 11. The other liabilities constituted around 8% of the liabilities mix as on 30 September 11 from 7% as on 30 September Page 14 of 17

15 Valuations & Outlook We find the valuations of banks attractive in relative terms. The trend of Sector valuations in terms of PE and PBV during the last four quarters reflects the underperformance of the sector. With the expected earnings growth rate of more than 10%, leading players like Bank Muscat and National Bank of Oman command PE/G ratios below one, suggesting their undervaluation. We are of the opinion that the current market prices of the listed banks do not reflect the true potential of dominant players in the banking sector. Stock Figures in RO '000 except per share data CMP PE annualized as on PBV as on Share Mcap 21-Dec-11 Capital Dec '10 Mar '11 June '11 Sept '11 Dec '10 Mar '11 June '11 Sept '11 Bank Muscat ,838 1,114, Ahli Bank , , National Bank of Oman , , Bank Sohar , , Bank Dhofar , , Oman International Bank , , Sector Average ####### Going forward We expect the banking sector to continue to demonstrate its robust performance driven by growth in loan book and other businesses. Spending on mega projects such as Sohar Refinery, Sohar Aluminum, Oman Polypropylene and Aromatic, Duqm Airport, is expected to support the credit expansion. With over RO10.4billion investment planned in construction sector by 2014 and oil & gas projects worth RO386 million in pipeline, banks would comfortably show healthy loan books. We believe that favourable demographics would continue to act as a key driver for growth in consumer lending segment and expect the banks to benefit from the higher disposable income levels of the youth population. The year 2012 is likely to be challenging for the banking space as two new banks are expected to start Islamic Banking services early next year. However, Banks are gearing up and take this as an opportunity to offer new variety of products and services. Though the expected reduction in the interest rates and the ceiling on consumer loans are likely to impact the banks interest income, it is likely to help the banks to minimize the default risk and in turn improve the asset quality. Half of the listed banks are expected to raise new capital in order to comply with the regulatory capital requirement of RO 100 million. The banks are also likely to raise additional capital through other means such as rights issue, private placements and subordinated debt to fund the growing credit demand. Page 15 of 17

16 PO Box 1065 PC 117, Al Wadi Al Kabir, Sultanate of Oman Tel: , Fax: Award Winner 2010 Excellence in Brokerage Business Awarded for Research Promotion and Website Content By Muscat Securities Market Contacts Telephone Research: Suresh Kumar Radhika Gadhia Khushboo Badlani Portfolio Management : S.V. Uppiliappan uppiliappan@almahafinancial.com Institutional Sales: A. S. Kedarnath kedar@almahafinancial.com Brokerage: Abdullah Al Hinai abdullah@almahafinancial.com Mahmoud Al Hamsaidi mahmoud@almahafinancial.com Nasser Al Banna nasser@alamahfinancial.com Operations & Customer service : Zakia Al Ghammari zakia@almahafinancial.com Muna Al Hashmi muna@almahafinancial.com Page 16 of 17

17 DISCLAIMER: The research report has been prepared by for private circulation amongst selected clientele for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe any investment. This Report is not directed to, or intended to be used by, any person or entity who (or which) is a citizen of (or domiciled) in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject the company to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. will not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof, and the investors are expected to use the information contained herein at their own risk. and its affiliates including analyst who has issued this report, may, on the date of this report, and from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities of the companies mentioned herein or engage in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or compensation or act as advisor or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to companies mentioned herein or inconsistent with any recommendation and related information and opinions. and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. The information contained in this report has been obtained from the sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but which may not be verified independently. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above report, Al Maha Financial Services LLC makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, whether expressed or implied, and accepts no responsibility or liability to its accuracy and completeness of the data, being provided. Opinion expressed is our current opinion as of the date appearing on this material only. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views expressed in this document. The investments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all the investors. Investors must take their own decision based on their specific investment objectives and financial position, and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments, to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall against the interest of investors. This document is strictly for the use of recipients only. None of the material provided herein may be reproduced, rewritten, rehashed, published, resold or distributed in any manner whatsoever without the prior and explicit written permission of. Page 17 of 17