Expanding in a Shrinking Market. The Changing Face of Banking

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1 Expanding in a Shrinking Market AKA The Changing Face f Banking 2018 ABA Mega Cnference September 25, 2018 Little Rck, Arkansas Presented by: Randy D. Dennis, President DD&F Cnsulting Grup Little Rck, Arkansas (501)

2 Welcme t the Neighbrhd The Health f Banking is Much Imprved The balance sheet has imprved Asset quality issues are yesterday s news Overall, lan demand is high Lenders are still being pirated Liquidity has fallen ff the table Cre depsits are VERY valuable nw 1

3 Welcme t the Neighbrhd The Health f Banking is Much Imprved The incme statement remains relatively light Althugh rates are clearly increasing, lan rates are nt keeping pace because f cmpetitin Disappearing margins minimally changing lan yields cmpared t increasingly cstly depsits Fee incme is still prblematic Mrtgage incme will likely decline as riginatins drp because f higher rates 2

4 Welcme t the Neighbrhd Regulatry Oversight New law, New day Healthy banks means less regulatry activity Hpefully mre flexibility related t capital and cmpliance Changing cmplexin with Federal regulatrs In sme markets, the Fed grwth in state member banks has slwed Large bank supervisin is a whle new adventure Successin remains a majr cncern especially in rural markets, but even in metr markets it can be a challenge 3

5 Welcme t the Neighbrhd External Cnditins The cmpetitin fr cre depsits is fever ht Cre depsits Brkered depsits Internet r Market Place depsits FHLB Bank Advances The Changing nature f Big Banks Hme Bancshares Bank OZK Fintech, Amazn, Wal-Mart, anyne else? Payment System Cmpetitrs 4

6 Welcme t the Neighbrhd Changes in the depsit structure 5

7 Welcme t the Neighbrhd Changes in the depsit structure 6

8 Welcme t the Neighbrhd Changes in the depsit structure 7

9 Welcme t the Neighbrhd Changes in the banking structure 5,679 (6,515 in 2015) U.S. Institutins by Asset Size $0 - $50MM 566 (9.97%) $50 - $100MM 890 (15.67%) $100 - $500MM 2,816 (49.59%) $500 - $1B 665 (11.71%) $1B - $10B 619 (10.90%) $10B - $100B 95 (1.67%) $100B - $1T 24 (0.42%) >$1T 4 (0.07%)

10 Welcme t the Neighbrhd Changes in the banking structure 119 Arkansas Institutins by Asset Size $0 - $50MM 8 (6.72%) $50 - $100MM 28 (17.89%) $100 - $500MM 62 (52.10%) $500 - $1B 13 (10.92%) $1B - $10B 6 (5.04%) $10B - $100B 1 (0.84%) $100B - $1T 1 (0.84%) >$1T 0 (0.00%)

11 The mst dangerus thing in the wrld is t leap a chasm in tw jumps. David Llyd Gerge 10

12 Expanding when Others Dn t Banking is changing grw r g 11

13 Expanding when Others Dn t Banking is changing grw r g 12

14 Expanding when Others Dn t Banking is changing grw r g Surce: Pew Research Center, Tech Adptin Climbs Amng Older Adults, May

15 Expanding when Others Dn t Banking is changing grw r g Q20061Q2007 M&As Per Quarter 1Q20101Q20111Q20121Q20131Q20141Q20151Q20161Q20171Q2018 Year # f Deals Unassisted # f Deals Assisted Ttal Deal Value ($M) Thru 3/27/ $6, $4, $2, $3, $1, $ $13, $ $ $11, $10,008 Unassisted Assisted 14

16 Expanding when Others Dn t Banking is changing grw r g Average Deal Price by Quarter Price/ Bk Price/ Tang Bk Price/ Price/Tang Quarter Bk Bk 1Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

17 If yu asked peple what they wanted, the answer wuld have been faster hrses. Henry Frd 16

18 Hw D Yu Plan t Grw? S yu want t grw. Strategic planning has never been mre imprtant Banks are changing Cnsumer demgraphics and demands are changing Grwing will require a different mindset fr yur management and bard as yu lk at the future: Why d yu want t d anything? What is yur visin fr the bank and yur future? Are we t ld? Is successin a bigger prblem? Is ur present market grwing, stagnant r shrinking? What is happening with ur current lans and depsits? Are we staffed fr lan r depsit grwth? D we have the capital fr lan r depsit grwth? 17

19 Hw D Yu Plan t Grw? S yu want t grw. Knw well the cnditin f yur flcks and herds Every bank thinks they are great service prviders BUT, the evidence suggests therwise Debi Barnes presentatin n service Hw d yu knw hw yu are ding in serving yur custmers branch shpping, surveys, fcus grups? DD&F s learning experience the Arkansas Institute fr Perfrmance Excellence the Gvernr s Quality Award Be certain yu are nt lsing custmers n the bttm as bring new nes in n the tp 18

20 Hw D Yu Plan t Grw? S yu want t grw. Expansin thrugh acquisitin Nearby mergers and/r branch purchases lk at surrunding cmmunities r cunties, especially rural markets Frustratin is rising and many smaller banks will be willing t thrw in the twel Beware thugh, a merger is a lt like a marriage Marriage is an attempt t slve prblems tgether which yu didn't even have when yu were n yur wn. Eddie Cantr 19

21 Hw D Yu Plan t Grw? S yu want t grw. Expansin thrugh technlgy, what abut? A fintech slutin - Simply described, FinTech uses nline, mbile and ther technlgy t deliver financial services. Typically, fintechs fcus n lending, payments, savings, investments, and persnal financial sftware and use wrds like Blckchain Fintechs have ideas, sme very gd, but need yur custmers Cmmunicatin with the fintech develpers can be tricky 20

22 Hw D Yu Plan t Grw? S yu want t grw. But, fintech s are nt withut risk Credit quality/ credit risk Third party /vendr risk management Risk Assessment Due Diligence Cntract Structuring Oversight Cmpliance risks nntraditinal services Servicing risk Many fintech s simply dn t understand banking 21

23 Hw D Yu Plan t Grw? S yu want t grw. And then there is the trusted business develpment plan that fcuses n prven sales-management practices. These ld schl practices can help yu avid paying up fr "ht mney and reduce yur dependence n brkered CDs r alternative surces f funding. Plus, applied crrectly, they can help yu develp a 12 t 24-mnth pipeline f prspective lw-cst depsit custmers which are critical t build sharehlder value. 22

24 The End is Near I knw this is a lt t digest, but dn t lse hpe. Help is nly a phne call away. 23

25 Fr additinal infrmatin Randy D. Dennis, President Bb Fegtly, Managing Partner DD&F Cnsulting Grup 521 Suth Rck Street Little Rck, Arkansas (501)