BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy
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1 BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy Thursday, May 12 Washington, DC Scan to download this presentation or to receive link via
2 Introduction Susan L. Karamanian Associate Dean B RA ZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy The George Washington University Law School
3 BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy Thursday, May 12 Washington, DC Scan to download this presentation or to receive link via
4 Luncheon at Faculty Conference Center Alvir Hoffmann Deputy CEO and Executive Vice-President of FEBRABAN B RA ZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy The George Washington University Law School
5 Brazil: Economic Outlook, credit market and banking sector Alvir Hoffmann Deputy CEO / Vice President
6 Economic Activity 2007.I 2007.III 2008.I 2008.III 2009.I 2009.III 2010.I 2010.III 2011.I 2011.III 2012.I 2012.III 2013.I 2013.III 2014.I 2014.III 2015.I 2015.III 11/02/ /02/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /05/ /05/ /06/ /06/ /07/ /07/ /08/ /08/ /09/ /09/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /01/ /02/ /02/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /05/2016 GDP (YoY %) Market Expectations* - GDP (YoY %) 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0-4,0-6,0-8,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0-3,0-4,0-5, /05/16 0,50 06/05/16-3,86 Source: IBGE Source: BCB (*Focus of 06/05) 6
7 Economic Activity out/11 abr/12 out/12 abr/13 out/13 abr/14 out/14 abr/15 out/15 abr/16 set/11 dez/11 mar/12 jun/12 set/12 dez/12 mar/13 jun/13 set/13 dez/13 mar/14 jun/14 set/14 dez/14 mar/15 jun/15 set/15 dez/15 mar/16 jun/16 set/16 dez/16 mar/17 jun/17 set/17 CPI decomposition (ac. in 12 months %) CPI ac. in 12 months (YoY %) 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% IPCA IPCA - monitored prices IPCA - tradable IPCA - nontradable 9,95% 9,11% 9,28% 7,42% 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 abr/16 9,28 Focus 06/05 mai/16 9,04 jul/16 8,16 dez/16 7,00 out/17 5,82 Source: IBGE Sources: BCB (Focus of 06/05), & IBGE 7
8 Economic Activity 11/02/ /02/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /05/ /05/ /06/ /06/ /07/ /07/ /08/ /08/ /09/ /09/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /01/ /02/ /02/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /05/ /02/ /02/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /05/ /05/ /06/ /06/ /07/ /07/ /08/ /08/ /09/ /09/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /01/ /02/ /02/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /05/2016 Market Expectations* - CPI (YoY %) Market Expectations* - Selic (YoY % end-of-period) 9,0 16,0 8,0 15,0 14,0 7,0 7,00 13,0 13,00 6,0 12,0 5,0 5,62 11,0 11,75 10,0 4, , ,0 8,0 Source: BCB (*Focus of 06/05) Source: BCB (*Focus of 06/05) 8
9 Economic Activity jan/14 fev/14 mar/14 abr/14 mai/14 jun/14 jul/14 ago/14 set/14 out/14 nov/14 dez/14 jan/15 fev/15 mar/15 abr/15 mai/15 jun/15 jul/15 ago/15 set/15 out/15 nov/15 dez/15 jan/16 fev/16 mar/ * dez/11 fev/12 abr/12 jun/12 ago/12 out/12 dez/12 fev/13 abr/13 jun/13 ago/13 out/13 dez/13 fev/14 abr/14 jun/14 ago/14 out/14 dez/14 fev/15 abr/15 jun/15 ago/15 out/15 dez/15 fev/16 CA deficit & TB (ac. in 12 months USD M*) International Reserves / CA (ac. in 12 months) ,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Current Account Deficit Trade Balance (right) Source: BCB / CA = Current Account Source: BCB / CA = Current Account 9
10 Economic Activity R$ Bi jul/13 set/13 nov/13 jan/14 mar/14 mai/14 jul/14 set/14 nov/14 jan/15 mar/15 mai/15 jul/15 set/15 nov/15 jan/16 mar/16 Federal Tax Revenue (ac. in 12 months prices of mar/16) Gross Debt and Primary Result (% GDP) ,0 80,0 77,0 74,0 71,0 68,0 65,0 62,0 59,0 56,0 53,0 50,0 3,5 3,3 2,9 80,0 2,6 2,5 2,2 2,0 1,8 74,4 1,5 66,2 0,5 58,9-0,5 59,3-1,1 56,0 54,8-0,6-1,5-1,7 51,8 53,3-1,9 51,3-2, * 2017* Gross Debt Primary Result Sources: Receita Federal, BCB e Min. Fazenda Sources: Receita Federal, BCB e Min. Fazenda 10
11 Economic Activity Source: BM&FBovespa 11 Source: BCB Exchange Rate (/USD) Ibovespa Index jul/14 set/14 nov/14 jan/15 mar/15 mai/15 jul/15 set/15 nov/15 jan/16 mar/16 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00 4,50 jul/14 ago/14 set/14 out/14 nov/14 dez/14 jan/15 fev/15 mar/15 abr/15 mai/15 jun/15 jul/15 ago/15 set/15 out/15 nov/15 dez/15 jan/16 fev/16 mar/16 abr/16
12 Economic Activity mai-15 jun-15 jul-15 ago-15 set-15 out-15 nov-15 dez-15 jan-16 fev-16 mar-16 abr-16 mai-15 jun-15 jul-15 ago-15 set-15 out-15 nov-15 dez-15 jan-16 fev-16 mar-16 abr-16 Credit Default Swap 1 YR (points) Interest Curve (Pré-DI BM&F - %) ,5 16,0 15,5 15,0 14,5 14,0 13, ,0 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 12
13 Credit Market Credit to GDP (%) 50,3 52,6 54,7 54,5 39,7 42,6 44,1 46,5 34,7 dez/07 dez/08 dez/09 dez/10 dez/11 dez/12 dez/13 dez/14 dez/15 Source: BCB 13
14 Credit Market mar-14 mai-14 jul-14 set-14 nov-14 jan-15 mar-15 mai-15 jul-15 set-15 nov-15 jan-16 mar-16 Credit to GDP (%) Household Credit by modality (YoY %) % 30% 30,5% % 20% 15% 15,5% 12,6% 14 10% 5% 13,2% 7,6% 6,3% 10 dez/07 dez/08 dez/09 dez/10 dez/11 dez/12 dez/13 dez/14 dez/15 0% Non-Earmarked Earmarked Payroll-deducted personal loans Personal Credit Real estate financing Source: BCB Source: BCB 14
15 Credit Market Non-performing Loans (%) 6,0 4,5 3,0 1,5 dez/11 jun/12 dez/12 jun/13 dez/13 jun/14 dez/14 jun/15 dez/15 Total Nonfinancial Corporations Households Source: BCB 15
16 Credit Market mar/14 mai/14 jul/14 set/14 nov/14 jan/15 mar/15 mai/15 jul/15 set/15 nov/15 jan/16 mar/16 Credit Quality & Provisions ,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 Nonperforming Portfolio - R$ Bi - left axis Provisions (%) - right axis Source: BCB Provisions - R$ bi - left axis Nonperforming Loans (%) - right axis 16
17 Banking Sector Austrália França Índia China Itália Rússia Japão Coreia do Sul EUA Reino Unido África do Sul Canadá Argentina México Brasil (2) Indonésia Turquia Alemanha Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets (%) Capital / Assets (%) 18,0 16,0 16,1 15,5 16,7 16,3 16, ,0 12,0 11,5 11,0 12,3 12,1 11, , , ,0 4, , dez/13 jun/14 dez/14 jun/15 dez/ Common Equity Tier1 Ratio Tier1 Ratio Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets Source: BCB Sources: FMI ; BCB (2) 17
18 Banking Sector dez/09 jun/10 dez/10 jun/11 dez/11 jun/12 dez/12 jun/13 dez/13 jun/14 dez/14 jun/15 dez/15 Net Profit x ROE (BRL bi) (%) 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 NP Private Banks NP SO Banks ROE Adjusted ROE ,0 0 Source: BCB 18
19 Banking Sector R$ Bi Short-term liquidity (Liquid Assets / Cash Out on Stress) Long-term liquidity (Stable Funding Available / Stable Funding Required) , Stable Funding Available - R$ mil Stable Funding Required - R$ mil Structural Liquidity Ratio (%) - proxy NSFR 120% , , , , ,0 jan/12 jun/12 nov/12 abr/13 set/13 fev/14 jul/14 dez/14 mai/ % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0 0% Liquid Assets Stressed Cash Flow Liquidity Ratio (proxy LCR) Source: BCB Source: BCB 19
20 Thank You!
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