ECONOMIC FACT SHEET 2 ND QTR., 2013

Transcription

1 1 ECONOMIC FACT SHEET 2 ND QTR., 2013 Data and consensus expectations * GDP growth forecast %* Unemployment - (may) 5.8 % - Public debt/gdp (apr.) Inflation (IPCA p.a.) - jun. & expectations % 5.81 %* Interest rate (SELIC p.a.) 8.00 % - Exchange rate (BRL/DKK) (08. jul.) Current account/gdp % - CDI, monthly deposit rate 0.59 % - INCC construction price index (pa.) - (maj) 7.56 % - * - full year forecast Kilde: IBGE GDP growth, % 7.5% GDP growth - Brazil GDP growth - Ceará 5.5% 3.5% 1,5% -0.5% * GDP grew in the first quarter of 2013 by 1.9% y/y in Brazil and the forecast for the entire 2013 is approx. 2.5 %. In the state of Ceará, growth is expected to be 4 % in a level above the overall Brazil.

2 2 16% 1 12% 1 6% RETAIL SALES VOLUME GROWTH Y/Y, jan-06 jul-06 jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul-11 jan-12 jul-12 jan-13 Brazil Ceará The sales volume of the retail sector grew by 6.4 % y/y accumulated during the last 12 months in April in Brazil. The sales volume in the state of Ceará grew by 6.4 % y/y in the same period. 13.5% 12. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, % % % apr-04 jan-05 okt-05 jul-06 apr-07 jan-08 okt-08 jul-09 apr-10 jan-11 okt-11 jul-12 apr-13 The unemployment rate in Brazil was 5. in May. CONSUMER FORBRUGE CONFIDENCE (ICC), (ICC), jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul-11 jan-12 jul-12 jan-13 The index of consumer confidence ICC was in May at 146 (200 indicates absolute optimism & 0 absolute pessimism)

3 3 7% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% Inflation accumulated y/y, jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11 jan-12 jan-13 The 12-month accumulated inflation rate was 6,70 % pa. in june, which is above the target range of 4.5 % pa +/- 2 %-points. The policy rate - Selic, Source: BCB 16% 12% jan-05 sep-05 maj-06 jan-07 sep-07 maj-08 jan-09 sep-09 maj-10 jan-11 sep-11 maj-12 jan-13 At the Banco Central de Brasil s (BCB) last meeting at the end of May, the Selic rate was increased by 0.5%-points to 8.0 % pa FDI, millioner USD Foreign direct investmen, MIO.USD, Source: BCB * - May * Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Brazil was after the first 5 months of 2013 USD 39.0 billion, which is at level with the same period last year.

4 4 3,6 3,4 3,2 3 EXCHANGE RATE BRL/DKK, ,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2 jun-08 dec-08 jun-09 dec-09 jun-10 dec-10 jun-11 dec-11 jun-12 dec-12 jun-13 The Brazilian Real (BRL) traded on July 8th at a price of 2.58 BRL/DKK. It is a weakening of 6.5 % since the year end and 13 % weaker than the average rate in EXCHANGE RATE USD/BRL, jun-08 dec-08 jun-09 dec-09 jun-10 dec-10 jun-11 dec-11 jun-12 dec-12 jun-13 BRL traded on July 8th at a price of 2.25 USD/BRL. It is a weakening of 10.0 % since the year end and is 15 % weaker than the average rate in 2012.

5 5 COLOMBIA Data and consensus expectations * GDP growth forecast - 4 %* Unemployment- (May) 9,4 % - Inflation (IPCA pa.) - June & forecast ,16 % - Policy rate pa 3,25 % - Exchange rate (DKK/COP) (July 8th) Current account/gdp -3,3 % - * - full year forecast GDP GROWTH, , 4, 2, 0, * Colombian GDP growth was in the second quarter of % y/y. The outlook for 2013 growth is approximately 4 % in Colombia.. SALES IN RETAILSECTOR Y/Y GROWTH, % 1 5% jan-06 jul-06 jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul-11 jan-12 jul-12 jan-13-5% Retail sales grew 2.35% y/y accumulated during the last 12 months in April.

6 COLOMBIA Unemployment Rate, Kilde: DANE jan-04 okt-04 jul-05 apr-06 jan-07 okt-07 jul-08 apr-09 jan-10 okt-10 jul-11 apr-12 jan-13 The unemployment rate in Colombia was 9. in May. 7% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% INFLATION ACCUMULATED Y/Y, jan-06 aug-06 mar-07 okt-07 maj-08 dec-08 jul-09 feb-10 sep-10 apr-11 nov-11 jun-12 jan-13 The 12-month accumulated inflation rate was 2.16% per annum in August, which is in the lower end of the target of 3% pa. +/- 1 %-point POLICY INTEREST RATE, ,0 Source: BRC 2,0 jun-02 jun-03 jun-04 jun-05 jun-06 j 2. dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 Banco de la Republica de Colombia (BRC) maintained the leading interest rate at 3.25% pa. at its most recent monetary policy meeting in late June.

7 7 COLOMBIA 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 FDI, i mio. USD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, MIO. USD Q12013 Foreign direct investment in Colombia was USD 3.7 billion. after the first quarter of 2013, which is at the same level as same period the year before EXCHANGE RATE DKK/COP, jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul-11 jan-12 jul-12 jan-13 jul-13 The Colombian Peso (COP) traded at 331 DKK/COP on July 8th. Hence, the COP has weakened 5.2% since year end and 6.7 % compared to the average exchange rate in EXCHANGE RATE USD/COP, jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul-11 jan-12 jul-12 jan-13 jul-13 COP traded at 1892 USD/COP on July 8th. It is a weakening of the COP of 7.2% since year end and 8 % weaker than the average rate in 2012.