LACEA/LAMES Implications for Latin America: BRAZIL" 05/10/2007
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1 LACEA/LAMES 2007 Global Financial Markets Turmoil and Implications for Latin America: BRAZIL" 05/10/2007 Márcio Garcia
2 I. Inflation, Output Growth and Unemployment
3 GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 12,00% 10,00% 8,00% GDP Growth 600% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% ** 2008** GDP Growth CPI Inflation **Market Expectations (September 28,2007)
4 GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 6,00% 14,00% 5,00% 12,00% 4,00% 10,00% GDP Growth 3,00% 8,00% 6,00% CPI Inflation 2,00% 4,00% 1,00% 2,00% 0,00% ** 2008** 0,00% GDP Growth (LHS) CPI Inflation (RHS) **Market Expectations (September 28,2007)
5 Unemployment Rate Rate (%) Oct 01 Dec 01 Feb 02 Apr 02 Jun 02 Aug 02 Oct 02 Dec 02 Feb 03 Apr 03 Jun 03 Aug 03 Oct 03 Dec 03 Feb 04 Apr 04 Jun 04 Aug 04 Oct 04 Dec 04 Feb 05 Apr 05 Jun 05 Aug 05 Oct 05 Dec 05 Feb 06 Apr 06 Jun 06 Aug 06 Oct 06 Dec 06 Feb 07 Apr 07 Jun 07 Aug 07 Unemployment Rate Source: IBGE
6 II. External Sector
7 Trade Balance 150,00 50,00 130, , ,00 90,00 30,00 US$ Billion 70,00 50,00 20,00 S$ Billions U 30,00 10,00 10,00 0,00 10,00 30, ** 2008** 10,00 Exports LHS Imports LHS Trade Account t( (net) RHS **Market Expectations (September 28,2007)
8 Current Account 16,00 8,00 0,00 8,00 16,00, US$ Billions 24,00 32, ** 2008** 40,00 Current Account (net) ** Market Expectations (September 28, 2007)
9 Current Account 50, , ,00 32,00 30, ,00 20,00 16,00 10,00 8,00 US$ Billions 0,00 0,00 US$ Billions 10,00 8,00 20,00 16,00 30,00 24,00 40,00 32,00 50, * 40,00 Current Account (net) RHS Trade Account (net) LHS Services LHS Income LHS Current Unilateral Transfers LHS *Jan-Aug 2007
10 Current Account (Jan Aug) 40,00 30, ,00 Billion10,00 US S$ 0,00 US$8,00 Billion US$5,02 Billion 10,00 20,00 30,00 JAN AUG 2006 JAN AUG 2007 Trade Account (net) Services Income Current Unilateral Transfers Current Account (net)
11 Foreign Reserves US$ Billion Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Foreign Reserves
12 Capital Account US$ Billion * *Jan-Aug 2007 Capital Account
13 Capital Account US$ Billion * *Jan-Aug 2007 Capital Account
14 Capital Account 80,00 70,0000 US$ 68,64 Billion 60,00 50,00 US$ Billion 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 US$ 8,75 Billion 0,00 JAN - AUG 2006 JAN - AUG 2007 Capital Account
15 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 35,00 30,00 25,00 US$ Billion 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0, ** 2008** Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ** Market Expectations (September 28, 2007)
16 Foreign Direct Investment US S$ Billion * -5 Direct Investors Loan Equity Capital Foreign Direct Investment *Jan-Aug 2007
17 Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) 30,00 US$ 26,49 Billion 25,00 20,00 US$ 19,32 Billion $ Billion US 15,00 10,00 US$ 10,15 Billion US$ 6,89 Billion US$ 7,17 Billion 5,00 US$ 3,27 Billion 0,00 JAN - AUG 2006 JAN - AUG 2007 Foreign Direct Investment t Equity Capital Direct Investors Loans
18 III. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
19 45% Nominal and Real Interest Rate 42% 39% 36% 33% 30% 27% % per year 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% jan/99 jul/99 jan/00 jul/00 jan/01 jul/01 jan/02 jul/02 jan/03 jul/03 jan/04 jul/04 jan/05 jul/05 jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 Nominal Interest t Rate (SELIC) Real Interest t Rate (With Last 12 Months Inflation - Annualized)
20 Nominal and Real Interest Rate 40% 30% 20% % per year 10% 0% jan/999 jul/999 jan/000 jul/000 jan/01 jul/01 jan/02 jul/02 jan/03 jul/03 jan/04 jul/04 jan/05 jul/05 jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 Nominal Interest Rate (SELIC) Real Interest Rate (With Last 12 Months Inflation - Annualized)
21 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 Nominal and Real Exchange Rates BRL / USD 1,5 1 0,5 0 Feb 95 Jun 95 Oct 95 Feb 96 Jun 96 Oct 96 Feb 97 Jun 97 Oct 97 Feb 98 Jun 98 Oct 98 Feb 99 Jun 99 Oct 99 Feb 00 Jun 00 Oct 00 Feb 01 Jun 01 Oct 01 Feb 02 Jun 02 Oct 02 Feb 03 Jun 03 Oct 03 Feb 04 Jun 04 Oct 04 Feb 05 Jun 05 Oct 05 Feb 06 Jun 06 Oct 06 Feb 07 Jun 07 Nominal Exchange Rate (BRL/USD) Real Exchange Rate (BRL/USD)
22 IV. Fiscal Accounts and Public Debt
23 Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (% of GDP) 15,00% 13,00% 11,00% 9,00% 7,00% 5,00% 3,00% 1,00% 1,00% 3,00% 5,00% Jan 95 Jul 95 Jan 96 Jul 96 Jan 97 Jul 97 Jan 98 Jul 98 Jan 999 Jul 999 Jan 000 Jul 000 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Nominal Deficit (% of GDP) Primary Deficit (% of GDP) Operational Deficit (% of GDP)
24 DomesticandForeign PublicDebt (% ofgdp) 60,00% 50,00% 00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% 10,00% Jan 95 Jul 95 Jan 96 Jul 96 Jan 97 Jul 97 Jan 98 Jul 98 Jan 99 Jul 99 Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Net Public Debt (% of GDP) Foreign Net Public Debt (% of GDP) Domestic
25 Federal Bond Debt: Composition and Maturity 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 00% Months 12 6 % of GDP 10,00% 0,00% -10,00% 0-6 jan/95 jul/95 jan/96 jul/96 jan/97 jul/97 jan/98 jul/98 jan/999 jul/999 jan/000 jul/000 jan/01 jul/01 jan/02 jul/02 jan/03 jul/03 jan/04 jul/04 jan/05 jul/05 jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 Others Price-Level Linked Selic Nominal Exchange-Rate Linked Duration Maturity
26 100,00% 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% -10,00% 00% Federal Bond Debt: Composition Jul-94 Dec-94 May-95 Oct-95 Mar-96 Aug-96 Jan-97 Jun-97 Nov-97 Apr-98 Sep-98 Feb-99 Jul-99 Dec-99 May-00 Oct-00 Mar-01 Aug-01 Jan-02 Jun-02 Nov-02 Apr-03 Sep-03 Feb-04 Jul-04 Dec-04 May-05 Oct-05 Mar-06 Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Exchange Rate Linked Nominal Selic Price-Level Linked Others
27 V. Investments
28 BOVESPA Index PTS Mar-05 Mar-97 Jul-97 Nov-97 Mar-98 Jul-98 Nov-98 Mar-99 Jul-99 Nov-99 Mar-00 Jul-00 Nov-00 Mar-01 Jul-01 Nov-01 Mar-02 Jul-02 Nov-02 Mar-03 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 BOVESPA Index (Pts - BRL) BOVESPA Index (Pts - USD) Source: Bovespa
29 Foreign Portfolio Investment Total 110,00 80,00 50,00 US$ Billion 20,00 10, * 40,00 70,00 100,00 Foreign Portfolio Investment FPI (Credit) Foreign Portfolio Investment FPI (Debit) Foregin Portfolio Investment FPI (Net) *Jan-Aug 2007
30 Foreign Portfolio Investment Total (Jan Aug) 120,00 100,00 80,00 60,00 US$ 33,30 Billion US$ Billion 40, ,00 0,00 20,00 US$ 1,10 Billion JAN AUG 2006 JAN AUG ,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00 Credit Debit Net
31 Foreign Portfolio Investments in Brazilian Stocks 50,00 30,00 US$ Billion 10,00 10, * 30,00 50,00 FPI Brazilian Stocks (Credit) FPI Brazilian Stocks (Debit) Brazilian Stocks (Net) *Jan-Aug 2007
32 80,00 Foreign Portfolio Investment Brazilian Stocks (Jan Aug) 60,00 40,00 US$ Billion 20,00 0,00 US$ 4,8 Billion US$ 14,03 Billion JAN AUG 2006 JAN AUG ,00 40,00 60,00 Credit Debit Net
33 FPI Debt Securities Total 50,00 30,00 Billion US$ 10,00 10, * 30,00 50,00 FPI Debt Securities Total (Debit) FPI Debt Securities Total (Credit) FPI Debt Securities Total (Net) *Jan-Aug 2007
34 FPI Debt Securities Total (Jan Aug) US$ 19,26 Billion US$ Billion 10 UUS$ US$ 590Billion 5,90 10 JAN AUG 2006 JAN AUG Credit Debit Net
35 Towards Investment Grade BBB Baa BBB 13 Investment Grade 13 Baa3 BB Ba1 11 BB 11 Ba2 BB Ba3 B+ 9 9 B1 B8 8 B2 B 7 B3 7 Oct 94 Feb 95 Jun 95 Oct 95 Feb 96 Jun 96 Oct 96 Feb 97 Jun 97 Oct 97 Feb 98 Jun 98 Oct 98 Feb 99 Jun 99 Oct 99 Feb 00 Jun 00 Oct 00 Feb 01 Jun 01 Oct 01 Feb 02 Jun 02 Oct 02 Feb 03 Jun 03 Oct 03 Feb 04 Jun 04 Oct 04 Feb 05 Jun 05 Oct 05 Feb 06 Jun 06 Oct 06 Feb 07 Jun 07 Standard & Poor's (LHS) Fitch (LHS) Moody's (RHS)
36 VI. How the current crisis may affect Brazil?
37 How the current crisis may affect Brazil? (1/5) Assumptions: If the US economy slows down, there will be lower US interest rates and US inflation will not be a problem, or If the US economy remains strong, US inflation might be a problem, and US interest rates will have to rise in the future, but There will be no stagflation, since we are not dealing with a supply shock or productivity it meltdown.
38 How the current crisis may affect Brazil? (2/5) Crisis` channels of transmission: 1) Capital Flows: Unlike in 1994,1997, 1998, 1999, 2001 and 2002, the effects of a reversal in capital flows in both the financial sector and the real economy would be much weaker, because today: The foreign debt is much smaller; There is both a large trade account surplus and a current account surplus; The foreign reserves are above USD 160 billion; and The public debt is no longer linked to the exchange rate.
39 How the current crisis may affect Brazil? (3/5) Crisis` channels of transmission: 2) World output growth and international trade: With world output slowdown, demand for Brazilian exports will decline, commodities prices will fall, the terms of trade will worsen, and export growth will also decrease. Brazilian real exchange change will depreciate, and output growth will be negatively affected.
40 Scenarios: How the current crisis may affect Brazil? (4/5) 1) Continued world growth with world inflation: Brazil will keep its abnormally high real interest rates to meet the inflation target, but output growth will remain strong (compared to recent history). 2) World slowdown: Since there will no longer be a combination of low demand for Brazilian exports with massive capital flight, there will be room for countercyclical monetary policy (fiscal policy is already expansionary). Output growth will suffer, but not like in previous crises.
41 Bottom line: How the current crisis may affect Brazil? (5/5) Although the current crisis will affect Brazil, most likely, the effects willnot be asseveresevere asin the recent past. Of course a worldwide depression like during the 1930s would be a different story, but such catastrophic scenario has very low probability. Economicpolicy measures to promote output growth would help to weather the crisis` effects: Reduce the growth rate of primary expenditures, which have been growing at a rate twice as large as GDP growth since the Real Plan, opening room to decrease the tax burden (35% of GDP) and introduce flexibility to conduct countercyclical fiscal policy; Structural reforms (Taxreform, Social Security reform, Laborreform) reform) to increase employment and promote growth; Improve regulation and privatize to be able to increase infrastructure investments in key parts of the economy (electricity, roads, ports).
42 Muchas Gracias h k d d d i f I thank Laura Macedo and Pedro Maia for superb research assistance. Some of the ideas used in part VI were taken from presentations made by Ilan Goldfajn, Affonso Pastore and Paulo Leme at the seminar Brasil e a Turbulência Mundial, held on September 14 by the Department of Economics, PUC Rio ( rio.br). Of course, they are not responsible for any misuse of their ideas.
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