MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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1 BRADESCO-APIMEC MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK DECEMBER, 2015 FABIANA D ATRI Economic Research Departament- DEPEC 2
2 International outlook
3 INTERNATIONAL SCENARIO Comingtotheendofcommoditiescycle Chinese economy deceleration In the USA, gradual monetary policy normalization Dollar strengthening Reduced global crisis risks, despite moderate growth 4
4 6,0 5,0 4,8 4,6 4,0 3,9 3,8 3,9 3,9 4,1 3,4 3,4 3,6 3,33,4 3,0 2,8 2,5 2,6 2,32,3 2,32,2 2,0 1,0 0,8 0,0 5,4 4,8 2,5 3,0 4,1 5,2 4,9 5,5 5,7 4,2 3,4 3,3 3,4 3,1 3,03,1 0,0 3, GLOBAL GDP GROWTH(%) SOURCE: IMF, BRADESCO
5 ACCELERATING DEVELOPED COUNTRIES PHASE AND DESECELERATION OF THE EMERGING ECONOMIES USA: END OF THE CRISIS EUROPE: CRISIS ENTERING IN ITS THIRD PHASE CHINA NEW NORMAL 6
6 CHINA: ANNUAL GDP GROWTH(%) SOURCE: IMF, BRADESCO 7
7 EURO AREA: ANNUAL GDP GROWTH (%) SOURCE: IMF, BRADESCO 8
8 USA: ANNUAL GDP GROWTH(%) SOURCE: IMF, BRADESCO 9
9 /03/13 05/04/13 03/05/13 31/05/13 28/06/13 26/07/13 23/08/13 20/09/13 18/10/13 15/11/13 13/12/13 10/01/14 07/02/14 07/03/14 04/04/14 02/05/14 30/05/14 27/06/14 25/07/14 22/08/14 19/09/14 17/10/14 14/11/14 12/12/14 09/01/15 06/02/15 06/03/15 03/04/15 01/05/15 29/05/15 26/06/15 24/07/15 21/08/15 18/09/15 16/10/15 13/11/15 11/12/15 DXY INDEX SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
10 MEDIOCRE PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL TRADE (VARIATION IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS) 30.0% 20.50% 20.50% 20.72% 20.0% 10.0% 10.75% 3.48% 0.0% -0.78% -10.0% -4.88% -20.0% % -30.0% SOURCE: BLOOMBERG -8.52% 11 mar/15 set/01 mar/02 set/02 mar/03 set/03 mar/04 set/04 mar/05 set/05 mar/06 set/06 mar/07 set/07 mar/08 set/08 mar/09 set/09 mar/10 set/10 mar/11 set/11 mar/12 set/12 mar/13 set/13 mar/14 set/14 set/15
11 BRAZIL: MAIN PRODUCTS EXPORTED (%) % 13.3% 7.5% 6.5% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.3% Soybean Iron Ore Crude oil Chicken Soybean meal Coffee Beans Beef Corn Tobacco in leaves Copper ores Pork Cotton Sugar unrefined Pulp Semi products: iron and steel Alloy iron Leather Gold Soybean: oil Airplanes Vehicles Aluminum Auto parts Flat Rolled Plastic Sugar refined Others SOURCE: MDIC 12 12
12 OIL PRICES, BRENT (US$/BARREL) SOURCE: IMF, BRADESCO 13
13 IRON ORE PRICES (US$/TON) SOURCE: IMF, BRADESCO 14
14 SOYBEANS PRICE (US$/BUSHEL) SOURCE: IMF, BRADESCO 15
15 Brazilian economy outlook
16 DOMESTIC OUTLOOK Current adjustment phase must be understood as part of rebalance cycle required for growth; Some progress happened, mainly linked to regulated prices and external accounts; Fiscal policy remains as the main challenge; Expected recession in 2015 and 2016 will lead to a significant inflation deceleration; Exchange rate performance remains linked to fiscal environment and CDS behavior. 17
17 18 CONFIDENCE INDEX INDUSTRIAL SECTOR out/02 jan/03 abr/03 jul/03 out/03 jan/04 abr/04 jul/04 out/04 jan/05 abr/05 jul/05 out/05 jan/06 abr/06 jul/06 out/06 jan/07 abr/07 jul/07 out/07 jan/08 abr/08 jul/08 out/08 jan/09 abr/09 jul/09 out/09 jan/10 abr/10 jul/10 out/10 jan/11 abr/11 jul/11 out/11 jan/12 abr/12 jul/12 out/12 jan/13 abr/13 jul/13 out/13 jan/14 abr/14 jul/14 out/14 jan/15 abr/15 jul/15 out/15 Valor Neutro ICEI SOURCE: CNI
18 CONFIDENCE CONSUMER INDEX S e t/ = i/0 a m 6 /0 v o n 7 i/0 a m 7 /0 v o n 8 i/0 a m 8 /0 v o n 9 i/0 a m 9 /0 v o n 0 i/1 a m 0 /1 v o n 1 i/1 a m 1 /1 v o n 2 i/1 a m 2 /1 v o n 3 i/1 a m 3 /1 v o n 4 i/1 a m 4 /1 v o n i/1 a m /1 v o n SOURCE: FGV 19
19 CURRENT BRAZILIAN CHALLENGES (FISCAL POLICY, PETROBRAS, CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES, REFORMS) DO NOT JUSTIFY THE RECESSION MAGNITUDE THAT WE ARE FACING AT THIS MOMENT. 20
20 WITHOUT FISCAL ADJUSTMENT AND BUDGET GOVERNANCE THIS CRISIS WILL NOT COME TO AND END 21 21
21 PUBLIC BUDGET ESSENCIAL PROBLEM IS THE FACT THAT EXPENSES GROWTHS ABOVE THE GDP, INDEPENDENTLY TO ECONOMIC CYCLE (DEMOGRAPHIC, FOR EXAMPLE). SO, PART OF THE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRES REVENUES INCREASE
22 3 FISCAL POSSIBLE OUTLOOKS 23
23 PRIMARY FISCAL ACCOUNTS (AS % OF GDP) WITH NEW MEASURES APPROVAL 0 5 % 0 4 % 0 3 % 0 2 % 3.7 % 3.2 % 3.2 % 3.3 % 1.9 % 2.6 % 2.9 % 2.2 % 1.8 % 0 1 % 0 0 % 0.1 % 0.5 % -0 1 % % % -0 2 % -0 3 % * * * * % SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO 24
24 PRIMARY FISCAL ACCOUNTS (AS % OF GDP) WITHOUT NEW MEASURES APPROVAL SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO 25
25 PRIMARY FISCAL ACCOUNTS (AS % OF GDP) GOVERNMENT TARGET SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO 26
26 GROSS PUBLIC DEBT (AS % OF GDP) 95% 90% 85% 80% Dívida Bruta Basic scenario Optimistic scenario Pessimistic Scenario Cenário Base Cenário Otimista Cenário Pessimista 77% 83% 89% 79% 75% 70% 68% 74% 71% 77% 72% 71% 65% 68% 60% 55% 50% 45% 59% 55% 52% 53% 51% * 2016* 2017* 2018* SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO 27
27 IS THERE ROOM FOR INFLATIONARY PRESSURES? 28
28 INFLATION: RELEVANT HORIZON FOR MONETARY POLICY MOVING TO
29 CONSUMER PRICES INDEX (IPCA) ANNUAL VARIATION SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 30
30 CONSUMER PRICES INDEX (IPCA) NON REGULATED PRICES ANNUAL VARIATION THE BIGGEST DECELERATION SINCE 2008 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 31
31 CONSUMER PRICES INDEX (IPCA) REGULATED PRICES ANNUAL VARIATION SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 32
32 MEDIAN MARKET EXPECTATION FOR THE IPCA IN 2016 % per year SOURCE: BC 33
33 INTEREST RATE: MARKET KEEPS BETTING IN A HIKE DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF
34 SELIC RATE BASIC SCENARIO END OF THE PERIOD 28,0 25,00 21,0 14,0 7,0 15,75 19,00 16,50 17,75 18,00 13,25 13,75 11,25 8,75 10,75 11,00 11,75 10,00 7,25 14,25 13,00 12,00 11,00 0, * 2016* 2017* 2018* SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO 35
35 SELIC RATE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO END OF THE PERIOD 28,0 25,00 21,0 14,0 7,0 15,75 19,00 16,50 17,75 18,00 13,25 13,75 11,25 8,75 10,75 11,00 11,75 10,00 7,25 14,25 14,25 13,00 12,00 0, * 2016* 2017* 2018* SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO 36
36 EXCHANGE RATE: WE STILL BELIEVE THAT BRL PERFOMANCE DEPENDS ON CDS BEHAVIOR AND FISCAL POLICY OUTCOMES 37 37
37 EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ SOURCE: BLOOMBERG 38
38 CDS LEVEL SUGGESTED BY THE SOVEREIGN RATING CDS REAL R$/US$ 150 2, , , , , , , , , ,40 Chile Malásia Peru África do Sul Colômbia Panamá Tailândia México Flilipinas Brasil antes Índia Itália Brasil agora RússiaCroácia Turquia Indonésia Bulgária Hungria 100 China Polônia Israel Espanha Rep. Tcheca 50 Bélgica Irlanda Grau Reino Unido Áustria França Japão especulativo Suécia Alemanha Holanda Noruega 0 AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB SOURCE: BLOOMBERG; S&P 39
39 SELECTED CURRENCIES VARIATION IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO 40
40 /09/14 11/12/14 11/03/15 11/06/15 11/09/15 11/12/15 11/03/16 11/06/16 11/09/16 11/12/16 CDS VS EXCHANGE RATE SIMULATION UPDATED: ATUALIZADO: December, 09/12/ th
41 CDS VS EXCHANGE RATE SIMULATION CDS REAL R$/US$ 150 2, , , , , , , , , ,63 SOURCE: BRADESCO 42
42 EXCHANGE RATE (POST STRESS SCENARIO) - R$/US$ SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO 43
43 EXCHANGE RATE (ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO) - R$/US$ SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO 44
44 TRADE BALANCE (US$ MILLION) SOURCE: MDIC, BRADESCO 45
45 CURRENT ACCOUNT US$ MILLION AND % OF GDP SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO 46
46 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (US$ MILLION) SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO 47
47 BRADESCO NEW FORECASTS 48
48 BRAZILIAN GDP ANNUAL VARIATION SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 49
49 BRAZILIAN GDP HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ANNUAL VARIATION SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 50
50 BRAZILIAN GDP INVESTMENT ANNUAL VARIATION SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 51
51 BRAZILIAN GDP AGRICULTURE ANNUAL VARIATION SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 52
52 BRAZILIAN GDP INDUSTRY ANNUAL VARIATION SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 53
53 BRAZILIAN GDP SERVICES ANNUAL VARIATION SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 54
54 BRAZILIAN GDP CONSTRUCTION ANNUAL VARIATION SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 55
55 PAYROLL JOBS CREATION IN FORMAL MARKET (IN THOUSAND) SOURCE: MTE, BRADESCO 56
56 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (ANNUAL AVERAGE) SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 57
57 HOUSEHOLD INCOME ANNUAL VARIATION IN REAL TERMS SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 58
58 RECOVERY DRIVERS Exports rebounding, that will respond to Real depreciation and economy opening process; Imports dropping, due to Real weakening; Infrastructure investments: a significant number of concessions may materialize; Privatization rebound will help bringing back national and global private sector; Household consumption will recover just after a long deleverage process; Inflation deceleration, from 10% to 5% annual increase, will help reducing pessimism; Some wage growth accommodation, will tend to reduce costs pressure; High diversification in Brazilian economy implies a spread reaction when correct signs come back. 59
59 NECESSARY AGENDA TO INCREASE POTENTIAL GDP GROWTH FISCAL GOVERNANCE AND EXPENDITURE EFFICIENCY INCREASE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY PRODUCTIVITY (DOING BUSINESS, TAX REFORM, LABOR REFORM, EDUCATION, TRADE OPENNESS) INFRASTRUCTURE 60
60 DEPEC
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