The Economic Consequences of the Real. Economic Department

Transcription

1 The Economic Consequences of the Real Economic Department

2 I/2002 III/2008 IV/2008 IV/2009 I/2010 IV/2013 I/2014 II/2016 The great recession: A Four Act Drama. GDP (YoY accumulated) Source: IBGE 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% -2,00% I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I ,00% -6,00% 2

3 The Ortodox View A portrait of the conscience.

4 The Ortodox View. Two main hipotesis: 1. Brazil growth during 2002 and 2008 was due an external commodity shock. 2. The main brazilian problem is increasing government spending that delivered fiscal imbalance. 4

5 The Ortodox View: commodity boom and gloom. Commodity & Oil / /2008 CRB = 184% Oil = 525,4% Source: Bloomberg $160,00 $140,00 $120,00 $100, $80, $60,00 $40,00 $20,00 0 $- CRB (USD) Oil (First active Contract) 5

6 The Ortodox View: commodity boom and gloom. GDP Brazil (index SA) Source: IBGE I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I GDP Exports Imports 6

7 The Ortodox View: commodity boom and gloom. GDP growth - Brazil (%) (SA) Source: IBGE, Gradual Investimentos 120,00% 100,00% 80,00% 60,00% 40,00% 20,00% 0,00% -20,00% -40,00% I/2002-III/2008 IV/2008-IV/2009 I/2010-IV2013 I/2014-II/2016 GDP Households Government Spending Gross Investments Exports Imports 7

8 The Ortodox View: commodity boom and gloom. Components contribution to GDP - Brazil (estimated) Source: IBGE, Gradual Investimentos Households Government Spending Gross Investment Exports Imports -20,00% -10,00% 0,00% 10,00% 20,00% 30,00% 40,00% 50,00% 8

9 The Ortodox View: commodity boom and gloom. Trade Balance to GDP (at 2015) Source: IMF - WEO 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% Brazil Indonesia India China, People's Republic of Turkey Russian Federation Chile South Africa Mexico Korea, Republic of Poland Exports to GDP Imports to GDP 9

10 jan/78 jan/79 jan/80 jan/81 jan/82 jan/83 jan/84 jan/85 jan/86 jan/87 jan/88 jan/89 jan/90 jan/91 jan/92 jan/93 jan/94 jan/95 jan/96 jan/97 jan/98 jan/99 jan/00 jan/01 jan/02 jan/03 jan/04 jan/05 jan/06 jan/07 jan/08 jan/09 jan/10 jan/11 jan/12 jan/13 jan/14 jan/15 jan/16 I/2002 III/2008 The Ortodox View: commodity boom and gloom. Terms of Trade - Brazil (index) Source: FUNCEX 140,0 130,0 120,0 110,0 100,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 10

11 dez/97 jun/98 dez/98 jun/99 dez/99 jun/00 dez/00 jun/01 dez/01 jun/02 dez/02 jun/03 dez/03 jun/04 dez/04 jun/05 dez/05 jun/06 dez/06 jun/07 dez/07 jun/08 dez/08 jun/09 dez/09 jun/10 dez/10 jun/11 dez/11 jun/12 dez/12 jun/13 dez/13 jun/14 dez/14 jun/15 dez/15 jun/16 The Ortodox View: spending fast? Primary Balance - Brazil (BRL millions) (12 month accumulated) Source: Ministry of Finance R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$- R$( ,00) R$( ,00) Total Expenditure Net Income Primary Balance (above the line) 11

12 Advanced economies India Poland Low-Income Developing Countries Mexico South Africa China, People's Republic of Indonesia Russian Federation Colombia Korea, Republic of Emerging Market and Middle- Income Economies Germany Turkey Chile Brazil The Ortodox View: spending fast? Median primary surplus (as % of GDP) Source: IMF - Data Mapper/WEO 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00-1,00-2,00-3,00-4,00 12

13 Russian Federation India Low-Income Developing Countries Emerging Market and Middle- Income Economies Chile Brazil China, People's Republic of Advanced economies Poland Mexico Indonesia South Africa Korea, Republic of Colombia Turkey Germany The Ortodox View: spending fast? Median primary surplus (as % of GDP) Source: IMF - Data Mapper/WEO 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00-0,50-1,00-1,50-2,00-2,50-3,00 13

14 Low-Income Developing Countries India China, People's Republic of Chile Emerging Market and Middle- Income Economies Indonesia Poland Advanced economies Brazil South Africa Russian Federation Turkey Mexico Germany Korea, Republic of Colombia The Ortodox View: spending fast? Median primary surplus (as % of GDP) Source: IMF - Data Mapper/WEO 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00-0,50-1,00-1,50-2,00 14

15 The Economic Consequences of the Real Unconsciouness speaks.

16 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Two simple equations... Marginal Efficiency of Capital (mec) Zero Cupon Bond Yield (yield) mec = Qn (1 r) n Yield = F PV 1/n 1 Where: Q = prospective return r = risk free interest rate n = number of periods Where: F = Face Value PV = Present Value n = number of periods 16

17 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Real Interest Rate (ex-post) (YoY) Source: Bloomberg, Gradual Investimentos * as oct/ * Brazil 12,31 10,11 6,79 7,85 4,44 4,84 4,5 1,41 4,09 5,34 3,58 6,13 Chile 0,84 2,69-1,83 1,16 1,88 0,28 0,81 3,51 1,56-1,6-0,65 0,7 Mexico 4,92 2,95 3,74 1,78 0,93 0,1 0,68 0,96-0,47-1,08 0,52 1,69 Colombia 1,15 3,02 3,81 1,83 1,5-0,17 1,02 1,81 1,31 0,84-0,89 1,27 Indonesia -4,37 3,15 1,41-1,81 3,72-0,46 2,21 1,45-0,58-0,61 2,61 3,19 China 3,98 3,32 0,97 4,11 3,41 1,21 2,46 3,5 3,5 4,1 3,05 2,25 17

18 jan/08 abr/08 jul/08 out/08 jan/09 abr/09 jul/09 out/09 jan/10 abr/10 jul/10 out/10 jan/11 abr/11 jul/11 out/11 jan/12 abr/12 jul/12 out/12 jan/13 abr/13 jul/13 out/13 jan/14 abr/14 jul/14 out/14 jan/15 abr/15 jul/15 out/15 jan/16 abr/16 jul/16 out/16 The Economic Consequences of the Real. House Price Index Source: FIPE/ZAP, Gradual Investimentos 230,0 210,0 190,0 170,0 150,0 130,0 110,0 90,0 70,0 50,0 São Paulo Rio e Janeiro 18

19 jan/08 abr/08 jul/08 out/08 jan/09 abr/09 jul/09 out/09 jan/10 abr/10 jul/10 out/10 jan/11 abr/11 jul/11 out/11 jan/12 abr/12 jul/12 out/12 jan/13 abr/13 jul/13 out/13 jan/14 abr/14 jul/14 out/14 jan/15 abr/15 jul/15 out/15 jan/16 abr/16 jul/16 out/16 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Rental Yield Source: FIPE/ZAP, Gradual Investimentos 0,80% 0,75% 0,70% 0,65% 0,60% 0,55% 0,50% 0,45% 0,40% 0,35% 0,30% Brazil São Paulo Rio de Janeiro 19

20 jul/40 ago/42 set/44 out/46 nov/48 dez/50 jan/53 fev/55 mar/57 abr/59 mai/61 jun/63 jul/65 ago/67 set/69 out/71 nov/73 dez/75 jan/78 fev/80 mar/82 abr/84 mai/86 jun/88 jul/90 ago/92 set/94 out/96 nov/98 dez/00 jan/03 fev/05 mar/07 abr/09 mai/11 jun/13 jul/15 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Real minimum wage (in BRL) Source: IPEA Data, Gradual Investimentos R$ 1.600,00 R$ 1.400,00 R$ 1.200,00 Vargas suicide Military coup 1964 R$ 1.000,00 Dilma Impeachment R$ 800,00 R$ 600,00 R$ 400,00 Plano Real R$ 200,00 R$ - 20

21 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Currencies (index 100 = 01/2004) Source: Bloomberg, Gradual Investimentos jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11 jan-12 jan-13 jan-14 jan-15 jan-16 JPY EUR MXN CHF SEK BRL 21

22 jul/40 jul/42 jul/44 jul/46 jul/48 jul/50 jul/52 jul/54 jul/56 jul/58 jul/60 jul/62 jul/64 jul/66 jul/68 jul/70 jul/72 jul/74 jul/76 jul/78 jul/80 jul/82 jul/84 jul/86 jul/88 jul/90 jul/92 jul/94 jul/96 jul/98 jul/00 jul/02 jul/04 jul/06 jul/08 jul/10 jul/12 jul/14 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Minimun wage purchasing power parity (USD) Source: IPEA Data, Gradual Investimentos $450,00 $400,00 $350,00 $300,00 $250,00 $200,00 $150,00 $100,00 $50,00 $- 22

23 dez/97 jun/98 dez/98 jun/99 dez/99 jun/00 dez/00 jun/01 dez/01 jun/02 dez/02 jun/03 dez/03 jun/04 dez/04 jun/05 dez/05 jun/06 dez/06 jun/07 dez/07 jun/08 dez/08 jun/09 dez/09 jun/10 dez/10 jun/11 dez/11 jun/12 dez/12 jun/13 dez/13 jun/14 dez/14 jun/15 dez/15 jun/16 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Primary Balance - Brazil (BRL millions) (12 month accumulated) Source: Ministry of Finance R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ - -R$ ,00 -R$ ,00 Total Expenditure Net Income Primary Balance (above the line) 23

24 The Economic Consequences of the Real. TAX RELIEF IN 2015 = BRL 400 BILLION 24

25 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Domestic Workers as percentage of Household Expenditure Survey 4% Source: IBGE, BLS, Eurostats, INE (Chile), CSO (Ireland) 3% 3% 3% 2,30% According to the ILO's 2013 report, Brazil has around 7.2 million domestic employees or 13% of the total. Brazil is the country with the largest number of domestic employees in absolute terms. 2% 2% 1,40% 1,10% 1% 0,90% 0,80% 0,70% 1% 0,50% 0,50% 0,30% 0,30% 0,25% 0,20% 0% 0% 0% 25

26 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Investment Fund Industry Net Worth (constant price) (BRL million) Source: ANBIMA R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ Fixed Income Stocks Multi-Asset Currency Pension ETF FIDC Private Equity (FIP) Real State (FII) OFF-SHORE 26

27 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Private Equity (FIP) net worth (BRL million) Source: ANBIMA R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 620% increase R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$

28 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Investment Fund Industry Net Worth (constant price) (BRL million) in 2015 Source: ANBIMA R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ - Fixed Income Multi-Asset Pension Private Equity (FIP) Stocks FIDC Real State (FII) OFF-SHORE Currency ETF 28

29 The Economic Consequences of the Real. The schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital is of fundamental importance because it is mainly through this factor (much more than through the rate of interest) that the expectation of the future influences the present. The mistake of regarding the marginal efficiency of capital primarily in terms of the current yield of capital equipment, which would be correct only in the static state where there is no changing future to influence the present, has had the result of breaking the theoretical link between to-day and to-morrow. Even the rate of interest is, virtually, a current phenomenon; and if we reduce the marginal efficiency of capital to the same status, we cut ourselves off from taking any direct account of the influence of the future in our analysis of the existing equilibrium. Chapter 11, The Marginal Efficiency of Capital. John Maynard Keynes General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money 29

30 mar-99 set-99 mar-00 set-00 mar-01 set-01 mar-02 set-02 mar-03 set-03 mar-04 set-04 mar-05 set-05 mar-06 set-06 mar-07 set-07 mar-08 set-08 mar-09 set-09 mar-10 set-10 mar-11 set-11 mar-12 set-12 mar-13 set-13 mar-14 set-14 mar-15 set-15 mar-16 set-16 The Economic Consequences of the Real. Main Interest Rate Target (YoY) Source: Bloomberg, Gradual Investimentos Brazil Chile Mexico Indonesia China Russia UK USA Colombia 30

31 Contatos Departamento Econômico André Perfeito, economista-chefe Camila de Caso Ouvidoria/SAC:

32 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by Gradual Investimentos and is distributed free of charge for the sole purpose of providing information to the market. Gradual Investimentos does not have any connection with any person that act in the scope of the analyzed companies or economic scenarios. The company does not receive for the services provided nor has business/commercial relationships with the companies analyzed. Although it has been taken all the necessary care in order to assure all the information at the time, its precision and accuracy are not guaranteed and Gradual Investimentos are not responsible for them. The prices, opinions and forecasts contained in this report are subject to change at any time without prior notice or announcement. This report might not be interpreted as a suggestions to buy or sell any assets or securities. The report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose.