BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK January, 2018 Economic Research Department

Transcription

1 BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK January, 2018 Economic Research Department

2 PRIMARY SURPLUS % of GDP 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 2.4% 2.0% 2.1% 2.8% 1.2% 2.8% 2.1% 1.6% 1.4% 0.5% -0.5% -1.5% -0.3% -1.0% -2.5% -3.5% -1.9% -2.5% -2.4% -2.2% Source: BCB, Bradesco

3 CONFIDENCE INDEX ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO EMPRESÁRIO INDUSTRIAL (ICEI) - DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS Industrial sector Source: CNI, Bradesco

4 INVENTORIES LEVEL Título do Gráfico estoques invertidos Industrial sector, the higher the indicator, the higher the inventories Historical average Source: FGV, Bradesco

5 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ÍNDICE Fonte: FGV DE CONFIANÇA DO CONSUMIDOR (ICC) E SEUS COMPONENTES (DADOS Elaboração: Bradesco DESSAZONALIZADOS) Sep/2005 = 100 Setembro/2005= Confidence Current Situation Expectations Source: FGV, Bradesco

6 PIB anual GDP Annual rate of change, % 10.0% 8.0% 7.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.0% 5.1% 4.4% 3.1% 3.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% -0.1% -2.0% 1.1% 2.8% -4.0% -6.0% -3.6%-3.5% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

7 GDP - CONSUMPTION Renda real Annual rate of change, % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 4.0% 0.8% 1.3% -0.5% 3.9% 4.4%5.3% 6.4%6.5% 4.5% 6.2% 4.8% 3.5%3.5% 2.3% 1.2% 2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -3.9% -4.2% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

8 RETAIL SALES PMC ampliada anual Annual rate of change, % 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.1% 6.4% 13.6% 9.9% 6.8% 12.2% 6.6% 8.0% 3.6% 4.5% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -1.7% -10.0% -15.0% -8.6% -8.7% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

9 REAL INCOMES Renda real Annual rate of change, % 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% 4.1% 4.7% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 3.4% 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% -1.7% -2.3% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

10 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Título do Gráfico Annual Average, % 14.0% 12.0% 11.3% 12.8% 12.5% 10.0% 8.0% 9.6% 9.7% 8.8% 9.3% 9.9% 10.2% 9.8% 9.4% 9.9% 8.9% 8.1% 8.6% 8.3% 7.7% 7.3% 7.2% 6.8% 8.3% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

11 PAYROLL Salário Mínimo Number of formal Jobs, in thousands 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000-1,500-2,000 2,137 1,523 1,617 1, ,626-1, Source: MTE, Bradesco

12 GDP - INVESTIMENTS Renda real Annual rate of change, % 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% 4.8% 1.3% -1.4% -4.0% 8.5% 2.0% 6.7% 12.0% -2.1% 17.9% 6.8% 0.8% 5.8% -4.2% -10.2% -13.9% -2.0% % Source: IBGE, Bradesco

13 GDP - AGRICULTURAL Annual rate of change, % 15.0% 12.0% 12.5% 9.0% 8.4% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.1% 4.6% 3.2% 5.8% 6.7% 5.6% 2.8% 3.3% 4.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -3.7% -3.1% -4.3% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

14 GDP - Industrial Renda real Annual rate of change, % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 10.2% 8.2% 6.2% 4.1% 4.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 3.2% 0.0% -0.7% -1.5% -4.7% -3.8% -6.3% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

15 GDP - SERVICES Serviços Annual rate of change, % 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% 5.8% 5.8% 5.0% 3.7% 4.3% 4.8% 3.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% -2.7% -2.6% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

16 GDP - CONSTRUCTION Título do Gráfico Annual rate of change, % 15.0% 13.1% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.3% 9.2% 4.9% 7.0% 8.2% 3.2% 4.5% 4.0% -5.0% -10.0% -2.1% -2.1% -9.0% -5.6% -5.5% -15.0% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

17 DESPITE THE EXPECTED RECOVERY, IT WILL TAKE SOME YEARS TO COME BACK TO BRAZILIAN GDP PEAK LEVEL Focus Bradesco 2017: 1.0% 1.1% 2018: 2.7% 2.8% 2019: 2.7% 3.0% 2020+: 2.7% 3.0% 155 Contraction since 2014: 11% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

18 CONSUMER PRICES INDEX IPCA Annual rate of change, % 14% 12.5% 12% 10% 9.3% 10.7% 8% 6% 4% 7.7% 7.6% 5.7% 3.1% 4.5% 5.9% 4.3% 5.9% 6.5% 5.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 3.0% 3.9% 2% 0% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

19 Título do Gráfico MARKET EXPECTATION FOR IPCA 2017 Average, Annual rate of change, % jan-16 mai-16 set-16 jan-17 mai-17 set-17 jan-18 Source: BCB, Bradesco

20 REGULATED PRICES IPCA ADMINISTRADOS ANUAL Annual rate of change, % 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 18.1% 15.3% 13.2% 10.8% 10.2% 9.0% 8.3% 4.3% 6.2% 4.7% 5.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.7% 5.5% 5.0% 1.7% 1.5% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

21 DURABLE GOODS PRICES IPCA Título do Gráfico Annual rate of change, % 10% 8% 7.9% 8.9% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 4.5% 3.9% 3.1% 3.6% 3.3% 3.0% 0.9% 1.3% -1.8%0.0% 0.0% -1.9% -1.6% -1.1% -0.5% -3.5% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

22 SERVIÇOS ANUAL SERVICES PRICES IPCA Annual rate of change, % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 4.9% 5.5% 7.3% 6.7% 9.8% 8.7% 8.1% 8.0% 6.7% 5.7% 5.8% 8.3% 8.1% 6.6% 4.7% 4.0% 2% 0% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

23 FOOD PRICES IPCA Alimentação Domicilio Annual rate of change, % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 21.6% 12.9% 12.4% 9.6% 10.7% 10.7% 10.0% 9.4% 6.7% 7.1% 5.4% 4.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.9% -0.1% -4.9% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

24 NOMINAL INTEREST RATE Selic, Annual rate 30% 25% 25.00% 20% 15% 10% 15.75% 16.50% 18.00% 13.25% 13.75% 11.25% 8.75% 11.00% 7.25% 10.00% 14.25% 13.75% 7.00% 6.75% 8.00% 5% 0% Source: IBGE, Bradesco

25 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE R$/US$ abr-15 out-15 mar-16 set-16 fev-17 ago-17 jan-18 Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco

26 Taxa de câmbio - R$ / US$ - Final BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE R$/US$, end of period Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco

27 SELECTED CURRENCIES Accumulated variation in the last 12 months Argentina Pakistan Philippines Vietnam UAE Indonesia Brazil Turkey New Zealand Japan Colombia Peru Switzerland Russia Canada Australia Índia China Taiwan Singapore Chile Korea Thailand DXY South Africa Malaysia UK Hungary Mexico Poland Czech Republic 20.0% 15.0% 17.9% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% 0.8% 0.0% -0.6% -3.2% -4.8% -6.0% -6.4% -8.2% -10.8% -13.0% 0.0% -20.0% -18.5% Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco

28 EXCHANGE RATE R$/US$, DXY index Dólar em relação à cesta DXY. Fonte: Bloomberg DXY Real abr-15 dez-15 set-16 mai-17 jan-18 Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco

29 5 YEARS CDS AND BRL R$/US$ CDS_5 BRL Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco

30 OIL PRICES US$/barrel WTI BRENT 69, , mai-15 ago-15 dez-15 mar-16 jul-16 nov-16 fev-17 jun-17 set-17 jan-18 Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco

31 IRON ORE PRICES Título do Gráfico US$/ton Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco

32 Título do Gráfico SOYBEAN PRICES US$/bushel Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco

33 BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT US$ million, deficit as % of GDP 20, ,000-40,000-60,000-80, % GDP -1.3% GDP -0.5% GDP -0.7% GDP -100, , % GDP Source: BCB, Bradesco

34 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Título do Gráfico US$ billion Source: BCB, Bradesco

35 BRAZIL THAT BRAZILIANS AND FOREIGNERS NEED TO KNOW o 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER SUGAR o 4th PRODUCER SHIPPING INDUSTRY o 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER COFFEE o 4th PRODUCER PULP o 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER ORANGE JUICE o 4th PRODUCER TRUCKS o 1st PRODUCER REGIONAL JETS o 4th CONSUMER MOBILE PHONES o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER SOYBENS o 4th ROAD NETWORK EXTENSION o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER CATTLE MEAT o 4th PRODUCER CLOTHING o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER TOBACCO o 5th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER COTTON o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER ALCOHOL o 5th PRODUCER AND 7th EXPORTER ORNAMENT STONES o 2nd EXPORTER FOOD PRODUCTS o 5th PRODUCER TEXTILE o 2nd PRODUCER AND 2nd EXPORTER IRON ORE o 5th PRODUCER COCOA o 3rd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER POULTRY MEAT o 5th PRODUCER CEMENT o 3rd PRODUCER AND 2nd EXPORTER CORN o 5th PRODUCER PAPER o 3rd ELETRIC POWER o 6th PRODUCER PHARMACEUTICAL o 3rd CONSUMER PERSONAL COMPUTER o 6th PRODUCER CHEMICAL o 3rd PRODUCER FRUITS o 7th CONSUMER MARKET o 3rd PRODUCER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT o 7th PRODUCER RICE o 3rd INTERNET USERS o 7th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER SALES CARS o 3rd PRODUCER BUSES o 8th PRODUCER ALUMINIUM o 3rd PRODUCER FOOTWEAR o 9th PRODUCER STEEL o 3rd CONSUMER PERFUMES AND COSMETICS o 11th PRODUCER HONEY o 3rd PRODUCER BAUXITE o 13th PRODUCER OIL o 4th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER PORK MEAT o 15th WIND ENERGY o 4th PRODUCER BEVERAGES o 15th PRODUCER WHEAT o 4th PRODUCER MILK o 4th PRODUCER CERAMICS COVERINGS

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