The Macroeconomic Modelling in the National Bank of Kazakhstan
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1 Workshop on Macroeconomic Modelling in Asia and the Pacific 8 11 December 2015 Bangkok, United Nations Conference Centre (UNCC) The Macroeconomic Modelling in the National Bank of Kazakhstan Prepared by OLZHAS TULEUOV Senior Analyst The Research and Strategic Analysis Department
2 About The National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan The Republic of Kazakhstan has a two tier banking system. The National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan (hereinafter NBK) is the central bank of Kazakhstan and presents the upper (first) tier of the banking system of Kazakhstan. All other banks present lower (second) tier of the banking system.
3 About The National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan The primary goal of NBK is to ensure the stability of prices in the Republic of Kazakhstan. To accomplish the main goal, the National Bank is assigned the following tasks: development and implementation of the state s monetary policy; ensuring the functioning of payment systems; implementation of foreign exchange regulation and foreign exchange control; promotion of the stability of financial system; regulation, control and supervision of the financial market and financial institutions and also other parties, within its competence; ensuring a due level of protection of the rights and legitimate interests of consumers of financial services; carrying out statistics activities in the area of monetary statistics and external sector statistics.
4 The Purpose of Macroeconomic Modelling in NBK The successful providing of monetary policy requires making a right decision on the size of base interest rate, which in turn depends on forecast of the main macroeconomic indicators. This forecast based on the macroeconomic models. Near Term Forecast Models Midterm Forecast Model GDP (final use method): Domestic Demand (Consumption of households and government, gross capital formation), Exports, Imports. GDP (production method): Growth rate of main economic sector. CPI: CPI Food, CPI Non Food. Nominal exchange rate US Dollar and KZ Tenge. Other indicators Making a right decision on the size of base interest rate
5 Previously Macroeconomic Models in NBK Macroeconomic models for forecast main indicators: KMOD (structural model in Eviews area), KazMOD (small macroeconomic model consist of 33 regression equations in Eviews area), KazMOD2015 (simplified and re specified macro econometric model, designed to replace the old KazMOD), 2015 Transmission mechanism model (econometrical equations in Eviews), Satellite models: Inflation factor model (regression equations in Eviews), Model of impact estimatimation of nominal exchange rate devaluation on inflation (regression equations in Eviews area), 2013 Methods of estimation current situation: Analyze fiscal policy and financial market (different indicators calculation, judgment, visual analyze of variable dynamic), Analyze of real sector based on business survey,
6 Currently Macroeconomic Models in NBK Near Term Forecast Models System (econometrical equations in Eviews) consist of: Bridge equations model for forecast GDP by final use method Bridge equations model for forecast GDP by production method Dynamic factor model for forecast CPI Output GAP forecast models Nominal exchange rate forecast model Main assumption price of oil (Brent), world food prices (FAO Indices) and economic growth rate in main trade partners (EU, Russia, China) Data sources: Statistic Committee of National Economy Ministry of Republic of Kazakhstan (official and main provider of statistic data in Kazakhstan) National Bank of Republic of Kazakhstan (data on financial sector and BOP) Ministry of Finance of Republic of Kazakhstan (data on fiscal sector) National Statistic Bureau of main trade partners (EU, Russia, China) Bloomberg, Reuters
7 MONTHLY INDICATORS Real wages THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF NEAR TERM FORECASTING SYSTEM QUARTERLY INDICATORS MONTHLY INDICATORS Employment Terms of Trade The volume of lending to individuals Tax revenues to the state budget Household consumption General government consumption GDP by final use method The growth rate of the mining industry The growth rate of the manufacturing industry Industrial production in Italy Lending Investments in fixed assets The state budget expenditures The rate of corporate lending Gross capital formation GDP The growth rate of construction The growth rate of trade Real money incomes Investment in housing construction Proceeds from the sale of large and mediumsized enterprises in the economy Import The growth rate of transport Oil prices Eurozone GDP Export GDP by production method FAO CEREALS INDEX REAL MONEY INCOMES MONEY SUPPLY OIL PRICES (BRENT) RUSSIA CPI FOOD CPI FOOD CPI CPI NON FOOD SHORT TERM ECONOMIC INDICATOR OUTPUT GAP NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE USD/KZT RUSSIA CPI NON FOOD 7
8 Currently Macroeconomic Models in NBK Midterm Forecast Model based on Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in Matlab IRIS area (Czech National Bank) Main assumption price of oil (Brent), world food prices (FAO Indices) and economic growth rate in main trade partners (EU, Russia, China) Data sources: Statistic Committee of National Economy Ministry of Republic of Kazakhstan (official and main provider of statistic data in Kazakhstan) National Bank of Republic of Kazakhstan (data on financial sector and BOP) Ministry of Finance of Republic of Kazakhstan (data on fiscal sector) National Statistic Bureau of main trade partners (EU, Russia, China) Bloomberg, Reuters
9 The transmission mechanism of quarterly projection model (QPM) TONIA Tenge Over Night Index Average (repo transactions) 9
10 The process of making a decision on Monetary Policy Preparing for the forecast macroeconomic models Prepare forecasts of external conditions and near term forecast Basic midterm forecast Introduction the Monetary Policy Committee to the baseline scenario and discussion of alternative conditions Making a decision on the base interest rate The final forecast including alternative options for the forecast (presentation to the Monetary Policy Committee) Publication of a press release and the "Inflation Report" 10
11 Thank you for your attention 11
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