PRODUCTIVITY AND CURRENT TRENDS AND OPTIONS OF LATVIAN INFORUM MODEL

Transcription

1 PRODUCTIVITY AND CURRENT TRENDS AND OPTIONS OF LATVIAN INFORUM MODEL R.Počs, A.Auziņa, V.Ozoliņa Riga Technical University G.Piņķe Ministry of Economy of Latvia

2 STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION Current macroeconomic situation, problems Productivity analysis Latvian macroeconometric model Options of Latvian INFORUM model

3 GDP growth rates in Latvia (% change on previous year) Data source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia

4 GDP growth rates in Latvia (% change on previous year) 2007 I 2009 II I 2007 II 2007 III 2007 IV 2008 I 2008 II 2008 III 2008 IV 2009 I 2009 II Data source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia

5 GDP growth rate (%), 2007 Slovakia Latvia Lithuania Slovenia Poland Estonia Bulgaria Romania Czech Republic Ireland Luxembourg Cyprus Malta Finland Greece Spain Netherlands Austria EU-27 Belgium Sweden United Germany France Portugal Denmark Italy Hungary Data source: Eurostat

6 GDP growth rate (%), 2008 Romania Slovakia Bulgaria Poland Cyprus Slovenia Czech Republic Lithuania Greece Malta Netherlands Austria Germany Spain Belgium Finland EU-27 United Hungary France Portugal Sweden Luxembourg Italy Denmark Ireland Estonia Latvia Data source: Eurostat

7 Value added change (% of corresponding period of previous year) 2009 I Agriculture Fishing Mining Manufacturing Energy Construction Trade Hotels and restaurants Transport Financial services Other business services Public services Education Health Other services Data source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia

8 Inflation - CPI (%) Data source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia

9 Dynamics of average weighted interest rates in LVL on deposits and credits in credit, inflation Annual average rate of change in Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices Deposits in credit institutions Credits in credit institutions

10 CONSUMER PRICE CHANGES (% of corresponding period of previous year) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII Data source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia

11 Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) EU-27 Belgium Bulgaria Czech Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembour Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Data source: Eurostat

12 Harmonised unemployment rate (%) EU-27 Belgium Bulgaria Czech Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembour Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden UK m m Data source: Eurostat

13 Balance of the current account in Latvia (% of GDP) Data source: Bank of Latvia

14 Balance of the current account in Latvia (% of GDP) I II III IV I II III IV I Data source: Bank of Latvia

15 GDP in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS) per person employed relative to EU-27 in 2008 (EU-27 = 100), % % EU-27 EU-15 Luxembourg Ireland Belgium France Netherlands Austria Sweden United Finland Italy Germany Spain Greece Denmark Malta Cyprus Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Czech Portugal Estonia Poland Lithuania Latvia Romania Bulgaria Data source: Eurostat

16 GDP in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS) per person employed in Latvia relative to EU-27 (EU-27 = 100), % %

17 Productivity by industries in Latvia thous LVL 35 Agriculture Fishing 30 Mining Manufacturing Energy 25 Construction Trade 20 Hotels and restaurants Transport 15 Financial services Other business services Public services 10 Education Health 5 Other services Total *

18 Employment structure in Latvia by hours worked per week, % % I no data 41 and more hours 40 hours 1-39 hours 0 hours

19 Latvian macroeconometric model

20 World s Most Significant Macroeconometric Models Country USA USA Euro zone countries Euro zone countries Austria Austria Belgium Denmark France Greece Estonia Estonia Lithuania Slovakia Slovenia Finland Malawi Group of countries Group of countries Title of model US model Global Insight s model AWM MCM AQM-06 A-LMM NBB ADAM Mascotte Greece model Estonian model EMMA LITMOD Slovakian model SLOPOL6 EMMA Malawi model MCD BbkM

21 Blocks of Macroeconometric Models Title of model Number of blocks US model 5 Global Insight s model 7 AWM 6 MCM 4 AQM-06 7 A-LMM 6 NBB 8 Mascotte 7 Greece model 5 Estonian model 5 EMMA 6 LITMOD 7 Slovakian model 6 EMMA 4 Malawi model 6 MCD 40 BbkM 13

22 Latvian macroeconometric model s scheme 1. GDP by expenditure and by income 2. Goods and services supply and production factors 3. Prices and wages 4. Foreign trade and balance of payment 5. Employment and demographic indicators 6. Fiscal sector 7. Energy sector

23 Size of Macroeconometric Models Models Number of equations Econometrically estimated equations US model Global Insight s model 1700 AWM MCM AQM A-LMM >100 NBB ADAM 2500 Mascotte Greece model Estonian model EMMA LITMOD >200 Slovakian model >50 SLOPOL EMMA Malawi model MCD > BbkM

24 Latvian macroeconometric model Model contains 378 equations, of them 73 are econometrically estimated. Model includes sectoral disaggregations 15 industries (according to NACE 1.1.red.).

25 Factors of Private Consumption Function Yd Yd/CP W W/Yd CP(-1) r u PCI Cr t AWM MCM AQM A-LMM + + NBB Mascotte Estonian + + model EMMA LITMOD Slovakian model + + SLOPOL6 + + EMMA Malawi + + model MCD BbkM +

26 Cons_fp_priv = (di/pi_cons_pr) unempl_r_tot + 0,63 cred (-1) t: R2 = 0.99 DW = 2.61 P(F-stat) = 0.00 [ ]

27 GDP forecast by Latvian macroeconometric model GDP_FP GDP_FP (Baseline) GDP_FP (Scenario 2) Data source: V.Ozolina calculations

28 GDP forecasts 2007* 2008* Nominal GDP (mil LVL) 1 st scenario nd scenario GDP per capita (thous LVL) 1 st scenario nd scenario Real GDP (mil LVL) 1 st scenario nd scenario Real GDP growth rate (%) 1 st scenario 10,0-4,6-14,6-4,6 0,0 3,1 4,9 6,1 6,2 2 nd scenario 10,0-4,6-21,7-6,9-0,8 2,3 3,8 5,8 5,8

29 OPTIONS OF LATVIAN INFORUM MODEL

30 LATVIAN INFORUM MODEL 55 sectors; Long-term forecasting till 2020; IO 2000;

31 Current state of the model: Waiting for Generation III; Begining I; In last September/October - II; Hibernate since last October; Waiting for new IO table; Runs on the basis of current data base;

32 The Latvian INFORUM model At the current moment, in the Latvian INFORUM model productivity by branches is estimated outside the model due to considerably short time series and radical changes in the recent years. Taking into account the estimated productivity growth and integrating these values in the model, results are computed that represent the further economic and sectoral development pace on the basis of integrated assumptions. The applied approach is used to examine the productivity changes influence on the economy. As in many fields, Latvia converges with the average EU level or, at least, the average Baltic States level of indicators, therefore, such a study gives an insight in potential development trends.

33 Last year (2008) very optimistic view Assumptions regarding the scenario are mainly based on the current economic trends. Since the forth quarter of 2007, the economic development slow down has been observable, and hence the included assumptions are reflecting slow down also in the next few years. It is believed that households final consumption will grow by 6% in 2008, by 5.5% in 2009, and in 2010 and 2012 it recovers, but in long-term it gradually decreases to 3% in 2020.

34 Last year (2008) Output and employment forecasts (average annual change, %) NACE Output forecasts Employment forecasts No. code D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

35 This year (2009) Again, the assumptions regarding the scenario are mainly based on the current economic trends. Since the forth quarter of 2007, the economic development slow down has been observable, and hence the included assumptions are reflecting slow down also in the next few years. It is believed that households final consumption will fall by 10% in 2009, by 8% in 2010, and by 5% in 2011, in 2012 it recovers, but in long-term it gradually decreases to 3% in It is believed that exports will fall by 15% in 2009, by 10% in 2010, and by 4% in 2011, in 2012 it recovers, but in long-term it gradually decreases to 4% in 2020.

36 Output and employment forecasts (average annual change, %) Output forecasts Employment forecasts No NACE 1.1.red. Short namcode FoodBeve Tobacco Textiles Clothing Leather Wood PulpPape PrintReco Coke Chemical RubPlast OthNMet BasicMet MetalProd MachEqu MachOffic MachElec CommEq MedOptIn Vehicles OthTrans FurnitOht SecRawM Total economy

37 Employment forecasts (thous persons)

38 Employment forecasts (thous persons)

39 Thank you for attention! Contacts: R.Počs: A.Auziņa: V.Ozolina: