Micro data based BOP data quality management. Outline

Transcription

1 Micro data based BOP data quality management Zsuzsanna Sisakné Fekete, Péter Bánhegyi (MNB) Workshop on Integrated management of Micro-databases 20/22 June 2013 Porto Hungarian Central Statistical Office Outline The phenomenon Globalization: the case of VAT registration Value added recorded in but not belonging to resident economy Correction in NA and BOP Micro data based quality management Trade balance revision and its effect on NEO in BOP Revision in NA/BOP or Foreign Trade Statistic or both? Macroeconomic statistical problems Purposes Outlook The primary objective of the MNB shall be to achieve and maintain price stability. 1

2 Companies without physical existence Hungary joined to the European Union in 2004 and Intrastat (information related to VAT register) reporting system was introduced to capture the foreign trade transactions with the European Union member countries, all companies with VAT number have to report to Intrastat system. At the same time in the BOP statistics NEO increased and turned to a negative trend. New companies without physical existence- only VAT registration in Hungary - are considered as non-residents. The phenomenon- value added recorded in but not belonging to resident economy Value added which is related to foreign enterprises registered under Hungarian VAT and recorded in Hungary s foreign trade statistics, but which is not due to the residents of the Hungarian economy according to the balance of payments or the national accounts concepts. Hungarian corporations value added to be adjusted because sales via VAT registration vis-a-vis non residents differ significantly from the value reported by their resident partners. 2

3 Correction in NA and BOP Hungarian companies have also VAT registrations in other EU member states - Hungarian value added recorded in other countries. In this latter case data sources are more complicated resident VAT declarations and foreign trade data do not contain this value added. The objective of the correction is for the HCSO and MNB to record value added which is related to foreign enterprises and recorded in Hungary s foreign trade statistics and vice versa. The phenomenon resident economy non resident economy resident value added non resident value added FTS= 8(50-42)+20(110-90)=28 NA/BOP=15(55-40)+5(100-95)=20 3

4 Data sources for correction CSO: Foreign trade database (Intrastat, Extrastat) Business Statistics MAP of company relations NCB: BOP financial account and income Tax authority: VAT database Annual tax report database, Micro-data based quality management CSO Register CSO BOP DATA Company level time series Common Register NCB Data warehouse NCB BOP DATA NCB Securities database Tax authority data 4

5 Trade balance revision in 2008 and its effect on NEO The HCSO and MNB first published first revisions of trade in goods data related to VAT registration in Hungary in September At that time a macro-assessment procedure (trade margin) was applied in goods. In 2011 the revision was extended and it is made also on company level. Revision and its effect on NEO in BOP % of GDP -0,5-1,3-1,9-2,1-2,1-2,7-3,5-4,7 Linking problem: software costs - revision of NA /BOP or Foreign Trade Statistics or both? The price of goods exported, either through VAT registrations or not, may include extra costs, belonging to foreign fellow company. An example is software costs. How to estimated this software costs? How to adjust foreign trade data? Methodological treatment of goods including software. Hungarian case study for the UN Task Force on Global Production 5

6 Macroeconomic statistical problems Foreign trade statistics data should be corrected for national GDP and BOP purposes. Problem for analysts and policy makers information are available only t+72, and t+90 days. Macro level adjustment easy to forecast - but not enough precise. Company level adjustment is not easy to forecast. Purposes To ensure legal framework for enhanced micro data exchange among NCB and CSO New data sources to analyze the problem on micro level, use data warehouse techniques for analyzing company level statistics To have quick information about the new phenomenon- to avoid long historical data revisions in the time series Multinational enterprises establish affiliates and branches in different countries using legal possibilities for their own purposes. National statistical authorities collect data on their operations only in the resident country although their transaction cannot be understood without knowledge of their overall activities. 6

7 Outlook This phenomenon highlighted the importance of systematic data quality management and the macro and micro level checking of data consistencies between financial and non financial accounts. The need for more sophisticated use of statistical data highlights the responsibility of statisticians of producing and at the same time the use the comparable and well documented methodology of data. New Eurostat policy on business and trade statistics (FRIBS) International trade package integrated business and foreign trade statistics Measuring Trade in Value Added ( OECD) Integrated data on international trade and global value chains (GVC) Thank you for your attention! sisaknezs@mnb.hu The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent official positions of the MNB. 7