CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

Transcription

1 CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS doc. Ing. Jaroslav Sixta, Ph.D. Director of Macroeconomic Statistics Section Hradec Economic Days 31 January and 1 February 2017 CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE Na padesatem 81, Prague 10

2 Content Czech Statistical Office National Accounts and ESA 2010 Government Deficit and Debt Challenges in Foreign Trade Statistics (SIMSTAT) New methods for compilation of Price Statistics 2

3 Czech Statistical Office (1) Headquarters in Prague Headquarters Structure: president 2 vice-president positions 5 sections with 16 departments Main tasks: strategies methodology registers central processing dissemination 3

4 Czech Statistical Office (2) Departments in the Regions 14 Regional Offices: Large Regional Office includes: Information Services Unit Field Surveys Unit Processing Units Registers Administration Unit Small Regional Office includes: Information Services Unit Field Surveys Unit 4

5 Czech Statistical Office (3) 14 regional offices 5

6 Key products News Releases Statistical Yearbook of the CZ Regional yearbooks Popular statistics journal Scientific statistics journals Classifications, Nomenclatures Registers Information services 6

7 Human resources (as of December 2016) Average age: 47.5 years Persons with higher education: 56.2% Average 2016 salary: EUR 1,241 Share of women: 76.4 % Number of employees

8 National Accounts and ESA 2010 (1) Implementation of new standard finished 09/2014 Increase of GDP, 4.6% (2010) 8

9 National Accounts and ESA 2010 (2) Discussion about implementation not finished Government institutions x financial institutions GNI inventory, verification process, missions, 2017 (CZ 2x) Benchmark revision 2020 Globalisation effects Irish case and global production Foreign trade statistics and processing 9

10 1996Q1 1996Q3 1997Q1 1997Q3 1998Q1 1998Q3 1999Q1 1999Q3 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 CZK bil. Gross Domestic Product constant prices of

11 CZK/CSK mil. National Accounts and ESA 2010 (3) Dependency on statistical standard Gross product of the Czech Republic, 1990, CZK/CSK mil. Standard Indicator Value, CZK. mil. ESA 1995 =100 Material Product System National Income (gross) ,2 SNA 1968 Gross Domestic Product ,4 SNA 1993/ ESA 1995 Gross Domestic Product ,0 SNA 2008/ ESA 2010 Gross Domestic Product ,3 SNA 2008 incl. capital services Gross Domestic Product ,4 110,0 105, HDP GDP (ESA (ESA 2010) 2010) HDP GDP (ESA (ESA 1995) 1995) ND National (MPS) Income (MPS) 100,0 95,0 HDP GDP (ESA 2010) 90,0 HDP GDP (ESA 1995) ND National (MPS) Income (MPS) 85,

12 CZK bil. of GDP Government Debt Maastrich debt 0, , , , , , , , , ,05 0 0,00 12

13 CZK bil. Government Deficit ,0% -0,7% -1,2% -0,6% -1,0% ,7% -2,3% -2,1% -2,7% -1,9% -2,0% -3,0% -3,1% ,5% -3,9% -4,0% -4,4% -5,0% ,3% -5,5% Přebytek/deficit Surplus/deficit -6,0% -6,3% -6,4% % z HDP % of GDP ,0% 13

14 1996Q1 1996Q2 1996Q3 1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1997Q4 1998Q1 1998Q2 1998Q3 1998Q4 1999Q1 1999Q2 1999Q3 1999Q4 2000Q1 2000Q2 2000Q3 2000Q4 2001Q1 2001Q2 2001Q3 2001Q4 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 CZK bil Foreign Trade Statistics (1) New challenges Two concepts of the CZSO since 2014 (2012) SIMSTAT project International trade with services Cross border concept National concept Trade balance 14

15 Foreign Trade Statistics (2) - SIMSTAT Intrastat has been recognised as one of the most burdensome statistics. At its meeting of 17 November 2011, the ESSC concluded that Intrastat should be simplified while at the same time ensuring a high level of quality and consistency of international trade statistics. As a simplification initiative Eurostat launched the SIMSTAT (Single Market Statistics) project on exchange of micro-data on Intra-EU trade in June The aim of the project was to enable the exchange of micro-data (enterprise level data on intra-eu exports on trade in goods) among Member States. This additional data source will allow Member States to reuse the Intra-EU dispatches micro-data for the purpose of checking or even producing their own figures on Intra-EU arrivals. 15

16 Price Statistics (1) New challenges and new data sources New types of product increase of internet purchases Scanner data, EU regulation of availability of data sources for HICP, priority for 2017 We started our negotiation with SOCR and we have the first cooperating partner. Other potential uses then price statistics: National accounts (quarterly estimates), Household budget survey (details of consumption), Statistics of services 16

17 Price Statistics (2) SD is generated by point-of-sales terminals in shops and provides information at the level of the barcode (GTIN or EAN) SD obtained from retail chains contain data on turnover and quantities per EAN based on transactions for a given period Price statistics can derive unit value prices at EAN level for CPI calculations SD is regularly used in NO (since 1995), NL (2002), CH (2008), SE (2012), BE (2016), DK (2016) Covered product groups (COICOP): 01, 02 Food, beverages, tobacco all 6 NSIs Daily household necessities - BE, DK, NL (including drugstores), NO, CH 06.1 Medical products NO Petrol NL, SE, NO 12 Products for personal care BE, NO, CH 17

18 Thank you for attention! CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE Na padesatem 81, Prague 10