CZECH ECONOMY 2014 CZECH ECONOMY. Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek, MBA Director of the Department of Economic Analysis

Transcription

1 2014

2 Overview of the Czech Economy GDP Employment Inflation Balance of Payments FDIs Balance of Budget Industry Foreign Trade

3 Main Characteristics of the Czech Economy Small, open economy, strongly dependent on foreign trade. Strong trade and ownership links with EU. Big portion of manufacturing sector (24% GDP). Long term real convergence with the developed countries, in 2007 GDP per capita 84% of the EU average, after recent recessions drop to 82% in Low inflation. The relatively low rate of unemployment, one of the lowest in the EU. The current account showed a surplus in 2014, based on growing trade. Fiscal consolidation: reduction in the public deficit to 1.3% of GDP and slowing the growth of government debt to 45,7% of GDP (notification for 2013).

4 Gross Domestic Product Peak in the second quarter 2006 (7.3% growth). During 2009, the Czech economy fell in the deepest recession in its recent history due to global crisis. GDP declined by 4.7% in 2009, signs of recovery occurred in the first half of Close relationship between domestic economy and external demand behind this development. Recovery in , with economic growth about 2% in both years. New recession, the economy declined by 0.7% both, in 2012 and in Growth by 2.0% in 2014, driven by domestic demand. We predict 2.3% GDP growth for 2015.

5 GDP Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

6 GDP by countries Source: Eurostat

7 GDP BY SECTORS Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

8 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Source: Eurostat, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

9 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

10 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Initially current account deficit caused by a balance of trade deficit compensated by inflow of foreign capital. Pro-export effect of investment helped the balance of trade to become positive (since 2005). But the current account as a whole remained in red numbers due to negative income balance (includes the outflow of dividends and reinvested earnings). High share of FDI is being financed from reinvested earnings from previous investments. On the other hand inflow of foreign capital is one of the major causes of the raise of external debt.

11 CURRENT ACCOUNT Source: CNB, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

12 EXTERNAL DEBT Source: CNB, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

13 INWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Source: CNB, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

14 FDI BY COUNTRIES Source: CNB, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

15 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT BY COUNTRIES Source: CNB, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

16 OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Source: CNB, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

17 GENERAL DEBT AND BALANCE OF BUDGET Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

18 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT Two recessions in recent development, 2009 and ; January 2015 growth again. Significant decline of industrial production in 2009 (-13.6 %), then a period of growth (8.6% in 2010 and 5.9 % in 2011). Industrial production: 0.8 % decline in 2012, 0.1 % decline in 2013, 4.9 % growth in 2014, 2.9 growth in January Important share of automotive industry 26.1 % (2014) and 28.3 % (in January 2015). New orders: growth in 2013 (3.8 % y/y), non-domestic (4.8 % y/y); 2014 (12.1 % y/y), non-domestic (12.9 % y/y), January 2015 (1.1 % y/y), non-domestic decline (0.3 % y/y).

19 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

20 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCITON Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

21 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT AND NEW ORDERS Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

22 NEW INDUSTRIAL ORDERS Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

23 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

24 PRODUCTION CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN INDUSTRY Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

25 FOREIGN TRADE Trade balance reached 442,49 billion CZK surplus in Exports grew by 13,9 % and imports by 12,4 % in In January 2015 exports grew by 2,5 %, imports by 5,9 %. Strong reliance on manufacturing (55,0 % share of machinery and transport equipment in 2014) and on exports to EU-28 (82,1 % of total exports in 2014).

26 FOREIGN TRADE Source: CZSO, graph MIT, Department of Economic Analysis

27 EXPORT BY COMMODITY (%) Source: CZSO,

28 IMPORT BY COMMODITY (%) Source: CZSO

29 EXPORT BY COUNTRIES (%) Source: CZSO

30 IMPORT BY COUNTRIES (%) Source: CZSO

31 FORECAST forecast Gross Domestic Product (change in %) MIT 2,0 2,3 2,5 MF 2,0 2,7 2,5 CNB 2,0 2,6 3,0 Colloquia Average* 2,0 2,3 2,6 European Commission** 2,0 2,7 2,7 Average Inflation Rate (in %) MIT 0,4 0,4 1,5 MF 0,4 0,3 1,4 CNB 0,4./x./x Colloquia Average* 0,4 1,4 2,0 European Commission** 0,4 1,4 1,8 Unemployment Rate (in %) MIT 6,1 5,6 5,6 MF 6,1 5,7 5,6 CNB 6,1 5,7 5,5 Colloquia Average* 6,1 6,2 5,9 European Commission** 6,1 6,2 6,1 Note: *Based on the Colloquia results of 17 institutions (November 2014), organised by the Ministry of Finance **European Commission - Autumn Forecast 2014 x/ CNB sets the long-term inflation target to 2%, with 1% tolerance band

32 The Czech Economy Jaroslav Vomastek Ministry of Industry and Trade Na Františku 32, Praha 1