Measuring Trade in Services

Transcription

1 WTO Advanced Trade Policy Course 17 February 2017 Measuring Trade in Services Barbara D Andrea Economic Research and Statistics Division WTO/OMC

2 Why are statistics on international trade in services needed? Decision-making Market access Negotiate Compare Quantify Dispute settlement Useful for economic analysis also for the private sector 2

3 in particular in WTO context The assessment of trade in services under the GATS (Article XIX) The Regional Trade Agreements Transparency Mechanism (WT/L/671) BOP data on trade in services by sector/subsector, by partner Foreign affiliates statistics by partner and industry WTO Council for Trade in Services Data on foreign direct investment by partner and by activity Data on movement of natural persons by services sector/subsector, by partner as from 3 years before entry into force of the agreement and subsequent years 3

4 Constraints of Incomplete/Limited Data in Negotiations Policy makers/ decision makers use anecdotal data Weakens position at the negotiating table Negotiating options are limited Ability to provide suitable solutions or interventions hampered Inefficient negotiations Benefits cannot be fully measured Impact is difficult to measure or determine 4

5 Reference to trade in services statistics in WTO Annex C of the Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration 2005 Targeted technical assistance should be provided through, inter alia, the WTO Secretariat, on compiling and analyzing statistical data on trade in services, assessing interests in and gains from services trade ] WTO Biennial Technical Assistance and Training Plan (WT/COMTD/W/11) Output 3.3: Trade in services statistics and supply-use tables are developed and used by the various stakeholders to monitor WTO trade-related developments LDC Post-Nairobi Priorities in the WTO (WT/GC/W/717) The LDC Group underlines the need for trade information and reliable, updated statistical data for conducting relevant trade negotiations at the Post-Nairobi phase.. 5

6 Interagency Task Force on Statistics of International Trade in Services Published in Compilers Guide Published in December 2014!! WTO/OMC 6

7 The Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services (MSITS 2010) Guidelines and recommendations on the measurement of trade in services Balance of Payments services statistics Foreign AffiliaTes Statistics Statistics on the international supply of services by mode (incl. mode 4) WTO/OMC 7

8 BPM6 Main Services Components 1. Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others 7. Financial services 8. Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. 2. Maintenance and repair services n.i.e. 3. Transportation 4. Travel 5. Construction 9. Telecommunications, computer and information services 10. Other business services 11. Personal, cultural and recreational services 6. Insurance and pension services 12. Government goods and 8 services n.i.e.

9 EBOPS 2010 Extended Balance of Payments Services What is it? Classification product-based classification, consistent with and more detailed than 12 BPM6 services components How can it be used in the framework of GATS? Manual provides a table of correspondence between EBOPS 2010 and GATS list of services W/120. To be disseminated in the online Annexes to the Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services WTO/OMC 9

10 Example W/120 EBOPS 2010 correspondence W/120 CPC Prov. EBOPS Business services A. Professional services a. Legal services Legal services b. Accounting, auditing and book keeping services Accounting, auditing, bookkeeping, and tax consulting services c. Taxation services Accounting, auditing, bookkeeping, and tax consulting services d. Architectural services Architectural services e. Engineering services Engineering services f. Integrated engineering services Engineering services g. Urban planning and landscape Architectural services architectural services h. Medical and dental services Health services 4a.5.1 Health services i. Veterinary services Services incidental to agriculture, forestry and fishing j. Services provided by midwives, Health services nurses, physiotherapists, paramedical personnel WTO/OMC 10

11 Foreign AffiliaTes Statistics (FATS) Where is the service supply? ECONOMY A compiles outward FATS ECONOMY B compiles inward FATS Company $ $ $ Direct investment ECONOMY C Foreign affiliate Service supply FATS data 11

12 WTO/OMC Economic Variables for FATS Basic FATS variables (minimum recommended by MSITS) Sales (turnover) and/or output Employment Value added Exports and imports of goods and services Number of enterprises 12

13 Value of services trade GATS Modes of Supply and Statistical Domains: The simplified approach Mode 1 Mode 2 Mode 4 Balance of Payments Services Statistics Remittances and compensation of employees are not measures of mode 4 trade Mode 3 Foreign AffiliaTes Statistics (FATS) WTO/OMC 13

14 Mode 4 categories in statistical framework? Contractual service suppliers Self-employed (independent) service suppliers Employees of foreign service suppliers Value of trade Intra-corporate transferees and foreign persons directly recruited by the foreign affiliate Services sellers / Persons responsible for setting up commercial presence 14

15 Additional indicators to analyze trade in services on Mode 3 (FDI and FATS) - FDI stocks and flows in services - number of foreign affiliates, of employees, value of assets (FATS). on Mode 4: Number of: - Contractual services suppliers - Intracorporate transferees and foreign persons directly recruited - Services sellers/persons responsible of setting up commercial presence (Migration/tourism statistics) WTO/OMC 15

16 Challenges for the developing economies Technical difficulties Implement EBOPS 2010 How to capture new services trade (i.e., manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others) Disaggregation difficult (i.e., other business services) Bilateral trade flows FATS Trade in services by modes of supply Lack of financial and human resources 16

17 Share of regional exports of commercial services covered by bilateral flows * (2011) North America 97% CIS 76% Europe 93% South and Central America 37% Africa 5% Middle East 15% Asia 79% * The colours, boundaries, denominations, and classifications in the map do not imply, on the part of the WTO, any judgement on the legal or other status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of any boundary. 17

18 Elements of a Successful Strategy for Improving Trade in Services Statistics Efforts by national agencies in charge of statistics + Between national institutions (CBs, NSO, Ministries ) Governments readiness to give resources to statistics Cooperation Between international and regional institutions (i.e., APEC, SADC) in support of national initiatives Effective technical assistance

19 Task Force on International Trade Statistics Capacity Building Support UNCTAD-UN-WTO e-learning module tested in May WTO Training module: Measuring Trade in Services (English, French and Spanish, see also Trade in services in WTO, Module 10) UNSD, WTO, EU, etc. Regional TIS Statistics Workshops In collaboration with regional agencies (e.g. SADC) WTO National seminars Awareness raising at national level (compilers and users), Upon request from developing country members or acceding Task Force list of consultants: available on request from Related: IMF BoP headquarter or regional courses + country missions 19 (trade in services is a component)

20 Where can I find TIS statistics (BoP basis) at national level? Published by national Central Banks and/or national statistical offices On annual basis and many countries on a quarterly and monthly basis and on the web! (but with limited details) 20

21 ANNUAL BPM BPM6 at international level Geneva based TIS Datasets UNCTAD-WTO joint work since January 2012 Based on Eurostat, OECD, IMF, UN Servicetrade data + national data, estimates Geneva based TIS datasets most complete and up-to-date By detailed service category, partner For all economies, regions, economic groups, world +WTO: monthly dataset Q Q Quarterly Free Online Interactive In cooperation with ITC 21

22 And where can I find FATS data? Published at national level: selected economies Collected and published: OECD.Stat (globalisation) Eurostat on-line database (structural business stats) WTO: FATS inward and outward sales of firms primarily engaged in services activities (+employment, number of enterprises) In WTO s International Trade Statistics publication + I-TIP services statistics module 22

23 World Trade Statistical Review Overview of world trade developments in 2015 and an assessment of the trade outlook in early In-depth analysis of the latest trends in the global trade of goods and commercial services. Participation of developing economies in world trade, analysing in particular the role of least-developed countries. and the new Trade Profiles 23