Economic Importance of Cross-border Trade in Services- Recent Developments

Transcription

1 Symposium on Cross-Border Supply of Services World Trade Organization April 2005 Economic Importance of Cross-border Trade in Services- Recent Developments WTO Economic Research and Statistics Division WTO/OMC 1

2 Cross-border supply COUNTRY A Mode 1: service transactions COUNTRY B Consumer from A The service crosses the border Supplier In statistical terms, trade between residents and non-residents is recorded in the Balance of payments of a country. WTO/OMC 2

3 BOP Balance of Payments Main Components Commercial services: 1. Transportation 2. Travel Other commercial services 11. Government services (not in GATS) 3. Construction services 4. Communications services 5. Insurance services 6. Financial services 7. Computer and information services 8. Royalties and licence fees 9. Other business services 10. Personal, cultural and recreational services WTO/OMC 3

4 Modes of supply Statistical coverage of modes of supply Mode of Supply Mode 1: Cross border supply Mode 2: Consumption abroad Mode 3: Commercial presence Mode 4:Presence of natural persons Relevant Statistical Domains BOP: services categories excluding travel and construction services BOP: Travel FATS statistics BOP: FDI data, construction services Insufficiently covered BOP: parts of commercial services components (excluding travel) Additional BOP Statistics: labour-related flows WTO/OMC 4

5 Modes of supply Sales by GATS Modes of Supply: Statistical Approximation Mode of Supply Estimated share cross-border 35 % consumption abroad % commercial presence 50 % presence of natural persons 1 2 % WTO/OMC 5

6 Commercial services exports Balance of Payments Billion US$ Commercial services exports of which Cross-border exports WTO/OMC 6

7 Cross-border commercial services exports by economic group Billion US$ Developed Developing WTO/OMC 7

8 LDCs commercial services exports Commercial services exports Billion US$ of which cross-border exports WTO/OMC 8

9 Growth of cross-border commercial services exports by economic group (%) 12.0 percentage World Developed Developing Transition ( ) LDCs WTO/OMC 9

10 Growth of cross-border commercial services exports by economic group and (%) p ercentag e World percentage Developed World 9.4 Developing Transition 4.7 LDCs Developed Developing Transition ( ) LDCs WTO/OMC 10

11 Cross-border commercial services exports by economic group Transition 5% 2003 Developing 26% Developed (excluding intra-eu 15) 69% WTO/OMC 11

12 Africa 8% Middle East 9% Latin America 13% Cross-border commercial services exports by region Developing Asia 70% 2000 China 9% NICs (6) 76% Middle East 8% Africa 8% Latin America 10% Other developing Asia 15% Developing. Asia 74% 2004 China 16% Other developing Asia 18% NICs (6) 66% WTO/OMC 12

13 BOP Services Cross-Border Supply Estimated Flows Between Developed and Developing Economies Percent 1999 Percent Developed 9 21 Developing* Developed Developing* Developed Developing* * Includes transition WTO/OMC 13

14 BOP World Estimated Structure of Cross-border Services Exports, 2003 Other business 35% Personal, cultural and recreational 2% Transportation 33% Communications 4% Royalties and license fees 8% Computer and information 6% Financial services 8% Insurance 4% WTO/OMC 14

15 Telecommunication infrastructure, Millions Main telephone lines Mobile cellular subscribers Internet users Source: ITU WTO/OMC 15

16 Telecommunications - International payments and traffic, USD billion BOP exports and imports Billion of minutes International telephone traffic WTO/OMC 16

17 Computer and information and Other business services exports Developed Developing Transition 500 Billion US dollars WTO/OMC 17

18 BOP Offshoring and international statistics How to measure the share of off-shoring in international transactions (BOP)? Through bilateral transactions (upper limit), but bilateral data are only scarcely available asymmetries in reporting and under-reporting of imports contribute to incomplete measures (sectoral misallocation, export data better than import data) In addition, difficult to record internal across-border transactions of large multinationals (FATS statistics?) WTO/OMC 18

19 BOP Offshoring and international BOP statistics Example for Asymmetry: India s exports in software services totals 11.3 bn$ in 2003 of which some 6.8 bn$ are bound for the US market. US imports (affiliated plus unaffiliated) from India are 1.1 bn $. That is only some 16% (import/export coverage) WTO/OMC 19

20 BOP Where to go from here? Improve reporting coverage of individual services sectors Provide bilateral trade flows Document deviations from international standards (metadata) and include economic analysis However, improved data require capacity building and technical assistance Inter-agency Task Force provides forum for developing guidance on improving these statistics WTO/OMC 20