Laurel Public Schools Demographic Study

Transcription

1 aurel Public chools emographic tudy K- onsultants

2 aurel Public chools emographic tudy Forward n January, K- onsultants of Billings, Montana was asked to prepare a emographics tudy to determine the number of K- students that aurel Public chools should be prepared to accommodate in the next, 0 and years. his study is an investigation into the factors contributing to a continuing growth of students, including: he number of children that should be anticipated and planned for in the near and longterm future determined by established statistical methodologies for projecting students, he numbers of children that could result from housing construction on existing, proposed, and potential future residential land subdivisions or other types of land development in the aurel area, and n analysis of past trends with out-of-district students and preparing an estimate of the number of K- out-of-district students that may attend aurel schools in the future. his report provides conclusions regarding the number of students in grades K - that aurel Public chools should plan on accommodating in the next, 0 and year periods. John isen, P K- onsultants

3 aurel Public chools emographic tudy B F Introduction... he aurel rea conomy... tudy Purpose... ocal rea Population rends... able ocal Population rends... aurel chool istrict Growth rends... able ocal rea chool K- nrollments... able ocal rea chool - nrollments... aurel chool nrollment Projections... ut-of-istrict tudents... able Potential ew tudents by chool Year -... aurel chools istoric nrollments... nrollment Projections Based on Past nrollment ounts... Kindergarten nrollment Projections Based on ounty Birth ates... nrollment Projections, ohort urvival Methodology... ut-of-istrict istoric nrollments... ut-of-istrict nrollment Projections... aurel chool istrict and Use... aurel chool istrict and the aurel Growth Management Plan... erial Photo - aurel chool istrict Boundary... Map - chool istrict rea Zoning... Map - chool istrict rea with tructures... evelopment Potential in the aurel chool istrict... dditional tudents esulting From ew ousing onstruction... able - Potential and evelopment Impacts on aurel chools... Map - Potential esidential evelopment... aurel tudent nrollment Growth onclusions... able - ummary of tudent nrollment Growth... hort-erm -Year tudent Growth... Mid-erm 0-Year tudent Growth... 0 ong-erm Year tudent Growth... K- onsultants Page

4 aurel Public chools emographic tudy Introduction chool enrollment and related space needs are, in part, directly tied to the local and regional economy and residential construction. he aurel area, including the area within the aurel lementary and igh chool istricts, is continuing to grow along with the local construction industry along with a healthy overall regional economy. Population, employment and housing trends all indicate a gradually improving economic environment from the downturn experienced through the recession in 0. he ity of aurel is planning for additional capacity for water and waste water treatment to accommodate a growing population and address issues with aging infrastructure. he aurel rea conomy Between and Yellowstone ounty s employment and overall economy is comprised of: % mining % nonresident travel % higher education and state government % federal government 0% transportation % trade center services % trade center wholesale, retail % trade center health care % manufacturing % construction %% other ource: Bureau of Business and conomic esearch, University of Montana Between 0-0 and -, Yellowstone ounty s net migration increased by +0%, compared to: Gallatin ounty +% ewis and lark ounty +% Butte-naconda area +% Missoula ounty -% avalli ounty -% Flathead ounty -% ascade ounty -0% ource: U.. ensus Bureau K- onsultants Page

5 aurel Public chools emographic tudy Between and, Yellowstone ounty s economy is projected to grow by.%, compared to: Gallatin ounty +.% ewis and lark ounty +.% Missoula ounty +.% ascade ounty +.% Flathead ounty +.% Montana +.% ource: Bureau of Business and conomic esearch, University of Montana aurel is an incorporated city with a healthy local economy but over % of aurel residents commute to Billings and other areas for employment. aurel s employment and overall economy reflects a strong business sector oriented mostly around retail with a significant industrial component with the efinery and BF/Montana ail ink presence. he local economy and its occupational characteristics are comprised of: % ales and office occupations.% Management, business, science, and arts occupations % higher education and state government.% Production, transportation, and material moving occupations % ervice occupations.% atural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations ource: ity of aurel Growth Management Plan lthough the Bakken oil boom has dramatically slowed, there are indications of a resurgence in oil activity and related population growth. n example is the Williston school board is asking their voters to pass another bond for more new school construction. he Yellowstone ounty economy and the aurel community continue to benefit from the indirect impacts of the Bakken oil field developments. ven though aurel is more than 00 miles from the epicenter of the drilling and extraction activity in the Williston area, it is an attractive location for the indirect and service activities associated with the oil industry. number of orth akota cities are closer to Williston, but at best they have roughly half the population of Yellowstone ounty. his means that industries such as finance, wholesale trade and professional services are probably much larger and have more depth and resources in Billings and indirectly in aurel than in the orth akota cities. (ource: Montana Business Quarterly) K- onsultants Page

6 aurel Public chools emographic tudy regional outlook, as observed by the University of Montana Bureau of Business and conomic esearch, shows that through the end of astern Montana has the strongest earnings growth of any region in the state, attributed to oil development in the Williston basin Bakken Formation, along the Montana-orth akota border. ocal Billings area businesses are experiencing strong benefits from the oil industry growth by tapping into the significant demand for support services. Paul Polzin, director emeritus of the Montana Bureau of Business and conomic esearch states, lthough Yellowstone ounty s economic base of higher education, government, transportation and health industries are stable, the construction sector is very strong. ther than Gallatin ounty, Yellowstone ounty is the leader in non-farm income now and projected for at least the next five-years. lthough declining, the repair, engineering and other services in Yellowstone ounty have captured a significant amount of Bakken-related business. Yellowstone ounty and Billings/aurel growth prospects look bright relative to other parts of the state even in light of the declining oil boom just across the orth akota border and there is a growing demand for commercial real estate, warehousing and industrial space. K- onsultants Page

7 aurel Public chools emographic tudy tudy Purpose his study will develop an understanding of the population trends within the aurel lementary and igh chool istricts; both in the to age grouping comprising K- th elementary and middle school grades and the to age grouping that comprises high school. he intent is to determine the extent and general timing of future population growth that indicates a need for modifying and/or expanding the existing buildings and also the need for additional educational facilities. he objectives of this study are to:. Prepare short and long term student enrollment projections using a variety of statistical analysis methodologies. B. stimate the number of students resulting from new residential construction that are likely to attend aurel chools within short and longer range time periods. he general methodology for this study is to: Prepare enrollment projections using birth rates to determine future kindergarten class sizes and develop forecasts of future student numbers utilizing past enrollment information and a ohort urvival methodology. iscuss with ity of aurel and Yellowstone ounty planning representatives and appropriate engineering firms any known or anticipated land development or growth plans and the location and character of all known or potential land development projects within the school district. iscuss with the aurel Public Works department the availability and capacity of public water and sewer to land within the school district. etermine the likely utilization of undeveloped land within the district and determine the potential number of future students that may be generated with full build-out of all identified land development projects. K- onsultants Page

8 aurel Public chools emographic tudy ocal rea Population rends Both Yellowstone ounty and the ity of Billings have enjoyed a consistent and ongoing growth in population for many years, averaging.% and.0% respectively since 0. he population within the ity of aurel has grown but at a somewhat lower rate of.%. he aurel Growth Management Plan calls for a higher desired annual growth rate of.% able ocal Population rends, 00 - Year Yellowstone ounty Population % hange Billings Population % hange aurel Population % hange 0,.% 00,.%, 0,.% 0,.%,.% 0,.% 0,.%,.% 0,.% 0,.%,.% 0,.% 0,0 -.%,.%,.% 0,0.0%,.%,.% 0,0.%,.%,00.% 0,.%,00.%,.0% 0, -.0%,0 -.%,0.% 0,.0%,.%,.% 0,.%, -.0% verage.%.0%.% hange 0- +, +.% +0, +0.% + +.% ource: U.. ensus Bureau, mall rea Income and Poverty stimates (IP) Program K- onsultants Page

9 aurel Public chools emographic tudy aurel chool istrict Growth rends aurel enrollments are growing. ata from the Montana ffice of Public Instruction and local schools (ables and ) indicates that aurel K- chools have increased in students more than any other district with the exception of Billings and the smaller K- districts such as lysian, lder Grove and anyon reek. aurel is the only high school district in the area that has shown enrollment growth over the past 0 years. able ocal rea chools K- nrollments 0 to chool istrict 0 nrollment hange ate of hange nrollment nrollment 0-0- aurel,, + +% lysian + +% Blue reek + +.% ockwood,, - -.% Billings 0,0, +, +.% anyon reek + +.% lder Grove % Park ity - -.% olumbus % ed odge - -.% oundup % Joliet + +.% able ocal rea chools - nrollments 0 to chool istrict 0 nrollment hange ate of hange nrollment nrollment aurel % Billings,, -0 -.% Park ity % olumbus - -.% ed odge - -.% oundup - -.% Joliet % ource: Montana ffice of Public Instruction and individual schools K- onsultants Page

10 aurel Public chools emographic tudy he student population in aurel has increased and decreased over the past 0 years but has generally shown an increase upward. his has much to do with the local economy and housing demand. his current growth trend as compared to other schools can possibly be attributed at least three key factors:. Business activity in the area has increased because of ongoing activity in the orth akota oil fields and Wyoming mineral extraction industry. here are many service and supply businesses in ockwood that work with the regional mining and oil industry. s these industries expand or decline, the aurel economy is impacted. Families move to or leave the area with the availability of employment.. he aurel chool istrict is situated adjacent to Billings and contains a significant amount of the readily buildable land. s long as new housing is in demand residential construction is expected to continue but, because public water and/or sewer is not generally available outside of the aurel city limits, this new housing will be developed at a lower density than if these services were to be made available.. Potential feeder schools such as lder Grove and lysian are growing at unprecedented rates. aurel in capturing a portion of the significant increases in student numbers in the areas K- school districts. he growth of aurel s K- student population is impressive at over % in the past 0-years but nothing compared to lysian chool at % and lder Grove at over 0%. lmost none of lysian chool s students attend high school in aurel however approximately % of the eighth graders from lder Grove chool choose to attend high school in aurel rather than in Billings. K- onsultants Page

11 aurel Public chools emographic tudy aurel chool nrollment Projections aurel chools have experienced ups and downs with enrollment in the past but current enrollments are students more than 0-years ago. With the community considering school improvements and even the construction of new facilities there are important questions to ask. Will the growth of the last 0 years repeat itself? Will growth be more or less than past years? ow many students should the schools be planning for in the future both in its elementary schools, middle school and high school? o address this question, K- onsultants has utilized two methodologies to estimate future student growth. Method # utilizes two different statistical approaches to calculating the number of future students. Method # utilizes the analysis of potential new housing construction to estimate the number of possible future students. Method # tudent nrollment Projections his methodology is a compilation of two projection models: he first model uses historic enrollment data over the past 0 years to develop trends which are then utilized to calculate estimates of future students. his method assumes that historic student growth rates will re-occur in future years. he second model uses Yellowstone ounty birth rates and exponential regression modeling to estimate future kindergarten class sizes. With this data, estimates of future students were determined utilizing a ohort urvival calculation. K- onsultants Page

12 aurel Public chools emographic tudy verview nrollment projections have been calculated in four steps. tep : Based on actual enrollments from 0 to, enrollment trends were developed. Using this data, enrollment projections were developed for school years - to -. tep : ive births were projected out to using Yellowstone ounty live birth records from 0 to provided by the tate of Montana Vital tatistics ivision and then utilizing exponential regression modeling. his process is used to project future kindergarten class sizes. tep : Kindergarten class sizes were projected out to using a calculated birth rate retention of.0. tep : tudent enrollments were projected out to by incorporating kindergarten populations from tep into ohort urvival calculations for grades K-. hese projections are presented in 0 and year totals. esults of these two methodologies vary but are good indicators that substantial growth in grades K- student population should be anticipated through at least to school year -, the limit of this analysis. hese projection methodologies are excellent indicators of potential future student numbers. hey are time-tested techniques of forecasting future student enrollments. owever, the two methodologies used are both based on past occurrences to develop trends which are then used to forecast future numbers of students. here is an inherent risk in relying on historic trends to forecast possible futures; past trends are not necessarily destiny. It can be somewhat misleading to incorporate general Yellowstone ounty birthrates to project future kindergarten class sizes in a specific community area like the aurel. It is likely that in aurel there may be a somewhat different median age and a different birthrate than is generally found in the overall Yellowstone ounty. o solely utilize past student enrollment numbers to develop trends for forecasting future student numbers assumes the past will repeat itself. Will past trends be repeated? Perhaps, but not likely. Many events can happen that could change predictions such as a resurgence in the Bakken oil play, another recession, recruitment of a major employer, loss of a major employer, increased economic growth and increased housing construction especially in the area between Billings and aurel and the resulting out-of-district th grade students. K- onsultants Page 0

13 aurel Public chools emographic tudy ut-of-istrict tudents his year aurel schools have students (.% of total enrollment) attending from outlying areas not located within the aurel school district s boundary. hese students have been tracked by district administration for the past seven years. ut-of-district students are expected to be a growing component of the total student in aurel. Primarily due to a significant decrease in out-of-district kindergarten students, the total number of out-of-district students in kindergarten through th grade has seen a slight decrease of students or -%) in the past seven years but the number of high school students has increased by students (+%). his increase in high school students may in part be a result of a growth in students coming from lder Grove chool, Park ity and Joliet. lder Grove will be experiencing significant student enrollment growth because of considerable housing construction within that school district and the west Billings area. s typically about % of its graduating th graders come to aurel for high school, this school in particular is very likely to contribute an increasing number of students to aurel igh chool. ver the years there have been from to lder Grove students go to aurel for high school each year. It is expected that within the upcoming 0 years that number should average closer to students or more each year. 0-year projections of out-of-district students based on trends over the past seven years indicate: Kindergarten will not be a factor with very few new students. Grades - may increase by less than 0 students but a % growth. Grades - may increase by about students, a % growth. Grades - will grow substantially with to perhaps or more students depending on the increase from lder Grove chool, a 0% or more growth. he result of each projection method including out-of-district students is listed in able. K- onsultants Page

14 aurel Public chools emographic tudy able Potential ew tudents by chool Year - Methodology K Forecasting 0- year future student numbers based on past enrollment trends 0 Years total students more students % increase 0 Years 0 total students 0 out of district 0 total students more students % increase 0 Years total students out of district 0 total students more students % increase 0 Years students out of district total students more students % increase Forecasting 0 and future student numbers based on birthrate trends and a ohort urvival calculation 0 Years: total students more students % increase years total students more students 0% increase 0 Years: total students more students % increase years total students 0 more students 0% increase 0 Years: total students more students % increase years total students more students % increase 0 Years: total students 0 more students % decrease years total students more student % increase efer to the following tables for details and yearly totals. K- onsultants Page

15 aurel Public chools istoric nrollments Grades K- K- onsultants January Year Grade otal K 0 K- otal K total - total - total - total , 0-0, ,0 0-0, , - 0, - 0, ,0-0, - 0 0, 0-0,0 0 0-Year hange Year verage 0 0, Grades K- historic enrollment data provided by aurel Public chools, count as of ctober st of each year. Grade Grouping istoric nrollments ime Frame K - lem - M - K- xisting tudents 0 xisting tudents 0,0 0-Year hange 0 0-Year verage,

16 . Kindergarten enrollment change rate based on an average annual enrollment increase between 0 and of.% B. - enrollment change rate based on an average annual enrollment increase between 0 and of.0%. - enrollment change rate based on an average annual enrollment increase between 0 and of +.%. - enrollment change rate based on an average annual enrollment increase between 0 and of.%. K- enrollment change rate based on an average annual enrollment increase between 0 and of %. Known values in yellow F. Predicted values in blue Year nrollment change % change nrollment change % change nrollment change % change nrollment change % change nrollment change % change 0-0, 0-0.% 0.% - -.0%.%,.% % 0.%.% - -.0%, % 0-.% 0 0.0% %.%, % % - -.%.% 0.%, - -0.% -.% 0.%.% - -.%,.% %.% 0.% 0.%,00.% %.%.%.%,0.% - 0.% 0.%.% 0.%,.0% - 0.% - -.% 0.% - -.%, - -0.% % - -.%.% %, % -.0% 0 0.0% 0.% 0.%,0 0.% -.0% 0 0.0%.% 0.%,.00% -.0% 0 0.0%.% 0.%,.00% -.0% 0.0%.% 0.%,.00% -.0% 0.0%.% 0.%,.00% -.0% 0.0%.% 0.%,.0% -.0% 0.0%.% - 0.%,.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.% 0.%,.0% -.0% 0.0% 0.% 0.%,.0% -.0% 0 0.0%.% 0.%,.0% 0-Y U G aurel Public chools nrollment Projections Based on Past nrollment ounts K- onsultants January Kindergarten - - % % % % Past 0 Years nrollment rends: ext 0 Years Projected nrollment: Kindergarten has increased by students, a 0.% growth Kindergarten may increase by students, a.% growth - has increased by students, a.% growth - may increase by students, a.% growth - has increased by 0 students, a.% growth - may increase by students, an.% growth - has increased by students, an.% growth - may increase by students, a.% growth K- overall has increased by students, a.% growth K- overall may increase by students, a 0.% growth - K- %

17 aurel Public chools Kindergarten nrollment Projections his projection uses the past 0 years of actual birth rates to determine future kindergarten class sizes. K- onsultants January. ive births projected using exponential regression model with change coefficient of.0. Kindergarten projected class size based on average birth rate retention of.0% B. Known values in yellow. Predicted values in blue Year Yellowstone ounty ive Births hange From Previous Years Year of Kindergarten nrollment Kindergarten lass ize hange From Previous Years % of Yellowstone ounty Births as Kindergarten tudents % % % % % % - -.% % % -.0% -.0% % % 0 -.0% % 0 -.0% 0 -.0% - 0.0% 0 years -.0% -0.0% 0-.0% -.0% 0 -.0% onclusions - Based on Yellowstone ounty birth rate trends over the past years and projected future birth rates, kindergarten enrollment is anticipated to gradually increase. In 0 years there may be kindergarten students, an increase of over current enrollment, an.% increase. In years there may be kindergarten students, an increase of over current enrollment, a.% increase.

18 aurel Public chools nrollment Projections his projection uses a ohort urvival methodology K- onsultants January. - are current year actual enrollment numbers for grades K- B. Known values in yellow, predicted values in blue Year Grade otal K 0 K- otal - 0,0-0, , - 0,0 -, - 0, - 0 0, - 0, -, - 0, - 0, , -0, 0-, - 0 0, - 0, 0-Year hange Year hange 0 Grade Grouping nrollment Projections ime Frame Kindergarten K- xisting tudents 0,0 tudents In 0 Years, 0-Year hange 0 0 tudents in Years, -Year hange 0

19 aurel Public chools ut-of-istrict istoric nrollments Grades K- K- onsultants January Year Grade otal K 0 K- otal K total - total - total - total Year hange Year verage Grades K- out-of-district enrollment data provided by aurel Public chools. Grade Grouping istoric nrollments ime Frame K - lem - M - K- xisting tudents 0 0 xisting tudents 0 -Year hange -0 -Year verage

20 aurel Public chools ut-of-istrict nrollment Projections Based on Past nrollment ounts K- onsultants January. Kindergarten enrollment change rate based on an average annual enrollment decrease between 0 and of -%% B. - enrollment change rate based on an average annual enrollment increase between 0 and of %. - enrollment change rate based on an average annual enrollment increase between 0 and of +.%. - enrollment change rate based on an average annual enrollment increase between 0 and of.%. K- enrollment change rate based on an average annual enrollment increase between 0 and of.%. Known values in yellow F. Predicted values in blue Year Kindergarten K- nrollment change % change nrollment change % change nrollment change % change nrollment change % change nrollment change % change %.%.%.%.% %.% - -.% - -.% - -.% % - -.%.% 0 0.0% - -.% %.%.%.%.% % - -.0% - -.0%.%.% % - -.% 0.0%.%.% % - -.% - -.% - -.0% - -.% %.0%.0%.%.% %.0%.0%.%.% %.0%.0%.%.0% %.0%.0% 0.%.% %.0%.0%.% 0.% %.0% 0.0%.% 0.% %.0%.0% -.%.% %.0%.0% 0 0.%.% %.0%.0% 0.%.% %.0%.0%.%.% %.0%.0%.%.% %.0% 0.0%.%.% %.0%.0%.%.% %.0%.0%.%.0% %.0%.0%.% 0.% -Y U G - -% % % % Past 0 Years nrollment rends: ext 0 Years Projected nrollment: Kindergarten has decreased substantially and is not a factor Kindergarten will not be a factor in school enrollment - has increased by students, a % growth - may increase by students, a % growth - has increased by students, a % growth - may increase by students, a % growth - has increased by students, a % growth - may increase by students, a 0% growth K- overall has increased by students, a % growth K- overall may increase by 0 students, an % growth % th grade attending from lder Grove chool - students th grade attending from lder Grove chool an additional - students ext Years Projected nrollment Kindergarten may not be a factor in school enrollment - may increase by students, an % growth - may increase by students, a % growth - may increase by students, a % growth K- overall may increase by students, a % growth th grade attending from lder Grove an additional - students

21 aurel Public chools emographic tudy Method # tudents esulting from ew esidential onstruction. his methodology identifies land with a good potential for residential development and calculates the number of school age children that will likely result from new housing construction. he subdivision process is complex and costly and there are numerous issues that have a direct impact on the amount of land that is changed from vacant or farming to housing. aurel chool istrict and Use aurel schools are comprised of an elementary district and a high school district. ogether they include a very large land area at over 00, acres or square miles. his is not counting a relatively small area of the high school district that is actually within arbon ounty. For comparison, ockwood chool istrict has 0, acres, lder Grove has,, but lysian chool istrict has only, acres of land. f the school district s total land area, a little over % is classified as agricultural by the Montana epartment of evenue and another % is classified as vacant land. his means that about,00 acres or % of the land within the school district is undeveloped and potentially available for some sort of development, either residential, commercial or some type of industrial use. In reality, of this large total land area, only a fairly small geographic zone that is generally situated between the Yellowstone iver and north of aurel approximately to the airport can accurately be considered to have potential for development into residential uses. and within the school district is located both within the ity of aurel and outside of the ity limits within Yellowstone ounty and a small area within arbon ounty. he potential for future approval of public water and sewer into the areas outside of the current aurel ity imits would make a significant difference in the number of students coming to aurel schools. With additional infrastructure, new housing densities could increase by 00% or more with,000 or,00 square foot lots permitted compared to the current one-acre or larger lots with no water or sewer services. and use within the school district area includes (see note below):, residential structures (single family, mobile homes and apartments) commercial or industrial structures (storage, warehouses, offices, shops, barns), acres of griculture land (irrigated and dry land farming), acres of Vacant land, not used for any activity ource: Montana epartment of evenue and Yellowstone ounty GI epartment ote: ata about land area and the number of structures within the aurel chool istricts was provided by the Yellowstone ounty GI epartment. o similar data is available for the aurel igh chool istrict area located within arbon ounty. K- onsultants Page

22 aurel Public chools emographic tudy aurel chool istrict and the aurel Growth Management Plan he aurel Growth Management Plan is the official planning document that is intended to provide general guidance for the long-term growth and development in the aurel area. It provides elected officials and other decision makers an understanding of the public s vision for future growth and development, and recommendations on how to achieve that vision within aurel and surrounding areas in the next years. he Growth Management Plan states that the aurel community strives to be a safe, livable and economically viable community with which its citizens are proud to identify with. he ity of aurel has continued to grow since its early days but since the 0 s, the biggest increase in population occurred between 0 and 0, a period when many of the existing schools were constructed. uring this decade, the population increased by over,000 people, a % increase. Between the 00 and 0 ensus, the population increased.% annually and for projections into the next 0 or years a.% annual growth rate should be anticipated. esidents under the age of are fairly evenly distributed throughout the aurel area and are about % of the total population. It is stated that the aurel community desires growth and economic development. long with this growth will come the construction of new housing and more children attending aurel schools. he ity of aurel has come to realize that, until improvements are made to its aging water and sewer systems, there is limited opportunity for growth, both residentially and commercially. It is not until new infrastructure is in place the ity can plan for annexing existing subdivisions outside of ity limits. Water and sewer systems and their infrastructure are key to community growth and the resulting population of school age children. he availability of public water and sewer has a direct impact on allowable lot sizes in new residential development, the resulting number of houses and eventually the number of children coming to aurel schools. he Growth Management Plan projects a demand for new dwelling units by 0, years from now. efer to the following graphics that illustrate characteristics of the district s land utilization: erial Photograph with lementary and igh chool istrict Boundary. aurel chool istrict with Zoning. aurel chool istrict with tructures (within Yellowstone ounty) locates existing residential and commercial/industrial structures within the school district. K- onsultants Page

23 Y M Y V G K W U I0 I UI UI I J I J PI U Y I F W J I G G K I Y I V K MZ BUG K VI BY I U K M K G K P I I F M PI M U K K I I M K W K II W K PIG aurel Boundary å I K K I I M I I P M P K M his document is intended for informational purposes only and is not guaranteed to be accurate nor current. K G P I GI Y V I I W IG PK IY W IG U IV FK BG FIZ Y U I 0 W P FK I I U M I W I I K W IGWY 0 W å ååå å M U K IGWY 0 W V IF B P UF IG K I G G U V B F W F UF GU I U IP G F I IBU W IBU Z ZY W 0 W P G F ate: // YW UY GI m:\schools\laurel-aerials-pdf.mxd P F Y FFI KIG V W KIG V W 0 W MI V I W V BII G B B IP YWY I BUFF II W Y WI G V W PP F W 0 W K I KIG V W F B P W FF I IPP PY 0 W BU W K PP F 0 W M Y Y K I W M I I IMK I K IGWY FF W BU IG WI I V W I P M I G W W I V I W I Y MU ZY K W IG M K I B P J BM Y BM W IG BM M chool ocations aurel Boundary

24 Zoning Jurisdiction within aurel chool istrict it c h e F o v F BU I Five Mile reek VU K I K K I k W K I WI K K aurel Boundary chool ocation I U I V 0 G V P Y P Y P Y G V BV P K I Big V I V W I W B W V V k ree y P esidential 000 estricted esidential 000 esidential 000 estricted esidential Multi-Family esidential Multi-Family estricted esidential Manufactured ome G eighborhood ommercial e in e ak eph s Jo ommunity ommercial entral Business istrict Planned Unit evelopment ighway ommercial eavy Industrial ntryway ight ommercial 0 ntryway General ommercial Y anyon ree k B G V V KI G V M I 0 Y I P V UG V M U W Y esidential 000 esidential Professional W 0 KI G V W M KI G V W W I W W W M KI G V W BBW anal esidential 000 esidential 000 BI I G B V esidential 00 0 W W ove itch J K V V U M B W V I W I V W I V W V V M KI G V W ch it B W V W ove itch G V G V V P esidential 000 W W P Y W W igh itch W W W n reek outh Fork anyo Public IM K IM K ree k å Zoning I PP F ontrolled Industrial I B U it ch W ig h F FF o ve BB W a na l it ch F U K K BU W 0 W F Inset I BU I BU K ast Billings ailspur Village ast Billings ailspur Village Main t. ast Billings entral Works U IP W M I aurel Pond 0 I ast Billings Industrial anctuary esidential racts (aurel) esidential 00 (aurel) esidential imited Multi-Family (aurel) ight Industrial (aurel) pecial Zoning istricts 0 ast Fork uck reek r y r eek k Figgins Pond Yellow stone iver ast Billings th t. Main t. Medical orridor Permit Zoning istrict. th treet Permit Zoning istrict esidential uburban (aurel) Blu e re ek ree k u ck itch V Big Blu e ree IG WY 0 W IG WY 0 W M I uck reek V U å ååå å I M I U I U IP W W I Z gricultural uburban ntryway ight Industrial I gricultural pen ntryway Mixed Use W I aurel Boundary r KYW Y I an yon G V K K I V M anyon ree k BUF F 0 VI GI I W W B G ZI M M M I W W P W M lk a li re e k B V re e o ve k & G U UB n ree a nyo I G I å F BU F Fo rk 0 o r th I M al lk M o r th Fo r k V aurel Pond outh Fork lkali reek W MI Figgins Pond reek reek i å åå å IGWY 0 W Five Mile I M I out h Fork k U IP U IP anyon ree I W I Z p ri ng re ek ottonwood reek Ü his document is intended for informational purposes only and is not guaranteed to be accurate nor current. ate: // YW UY GI m:\schools\laurel-zoning-pdf.mxd

25 aurel chool istrict with tructures I P M I -B I IG I U U W P P.. Y B U U V I G M V I Z Y F FI I W U I P F M F V Y I M M -- I X. V 0 V --.. M I U I P B.... I W F B IG V I W V G I G V W I G W F P BUF G I. IG I F X W G I W P K BUI G I W P I Z B K W Y I I U IV W K MY I M Y FI MI W K F U M G - - V U U W Y 0 PI V P Z 0 Y W 0 Y W I I K Y MG V U I U JUI P V I WY 0 WY 0 F G U U U B I M I K 0 W Y B B Y I Y F G G Y I V B IV P IV V Y I B X WI W Y W. U 0 PK 0 FI 0 I Y I V B (I ) B B M I I VI VI B M IV 0 I I I I B MM U I B 0 B IU I G B U B IV M I B 0 0 IV B Y I V I V G IV B B B M I V I P K B W I M B Y Y W W ater rel nt au Pla B W I V U IV IG M K K ) B I Y I BB W UB ( BI Y I 0 P W e wa ge P la nt 0 I IV 0 K U JU B UB BW K F K P K I K U B K 0 I BU 0 I 0 P B B F U 0 Y 0 0 U WY 0 WY Y W I Y I Y U W F F I WI G I BI PI V U W U I J.. MG 0 K B Q U 0 WY 0 WY I I K V V V FI V U I I B U. I JUI P Z V G W Y K BIG I F U F I W FI M V FI PK - I WY I WY I K Y U P I V V V V V U V I BI V I V V I PKVIW P K V 0 W I G WY MI G P Y V I V IG W V I G WY MI V Y V P V W G PIK I G P I K G U B FI WI FI M V I V 0 V V 0 V M FI V B FI V I V M Y Y Y 0 I 0 I V F B K 0 G U W FI B B I I M PK UB ate: // YW UY GI m:\schools\laurel-structures-parcels-pdf.mxd M his document is intended for informational purposes only and is not guaranteed to be accurate nor current. - PIP PIP - 0 hurches (non-profit) anals, itches UB Y W Points of Interest treams, reeks B I ommercial ivers, akes PK esidential Water Features FI G F K I Y å ååå å laurel_structures YP - - B B FI Y B G Q I B Y U BU I I UI I B Inset chool ocation - FI B 0 B U FI U I I M M K B U F I P K å aurel Boundary B B U B U B ailroads V I V U IG B 0 W K K B 0 00 I I QP K egend FI 0 B aurel Boundary Parcel Boundaries I Y K I GM I I M V V U V 0 I FU FI F V V V V 0 P 0 0 Y 0 U IG F K W 0 I G P K FI F K M I I V V t h 0 UB I F K F M I I 0 0 M U K FI 0 P K IVI I 0 F I 0 V I W I U UG I 0 BB IVI I 0 B VI G 0 I V I 0 0 PG I U IG P K M Y 0 K F B GI Z ZY I 0 I U P K G B B J 0 WY V V FU GM P U K U IG Y W 0 W BK 0 0 I GI Z ZY I 0 UB U I 0 0 W BK W U IG 0 P y t o f Wa igh U rt h ern n o ngto I Bu rl i B KY - F 0 0 FI F I P FI P K IG B Y B U U Y -W FI FI FI B Y W 0 I X F IF W Y I å 0 BM B U V U P K I W Y UB 0 0 V U I G 0 I G B UB 0 P K PUB I FI IVI I U I G B U B I V Y U 0 W V 0 W U F V W W V U t h U 0 0 MG 0 I I I W Y W I I 0 Y 0 0 BUI /W 0 0 FI B Y 0 I G 0 Y W U 00 0 G I B 0 I I 0 Y FI 0 0 I I I W / 0 I Y W G I X BUI I U P 0 BU U ZP BI I V 0 I I V V W F UB U I V 0 B M FUI I BIG Y I I 0 I G V W V W 0 G I V I G Y V V V V 0 V Y I V V V V P G F I V I I I B Y I I V I I V I V B IG PI I W U V V U - WI W V UV WI P K V V V V FI GGI 0 G F F M Y 0 U 0 U I I I U IG B U MI M I PI B P PK B 0 U PI B 0 V FI K P UB I G IG B MW 0 0 I G PI P K W I G 0 0 FI B P K BU I G M M MI U W P K I M MI P K BK W Y Y U I K P U 0 0 UU I I M å åå V V V M I W UB 0 FI 0 0 K P UFF V 0 FI GGI Y 0 V 0 0 Y UG 0 I G 0 I W BK I G B 0 0B I V I Z I GMI 0 FU 0 0 M W P K Y P - BU 0 U IG F P K I FI UB U I G 0 0 W 0 0 YUG B 0 G M I I 0 0 WY W V FI 0 I I MI 0 M I W Y U I GW Y 0 B 0 0 I K 0 M 0 U 0 FI F F II IW BIG I KF P B I X V 0 K P å P K 0M IV n d I M 0 GV BIG FI 0 I 0 VU 0 0 MGU UB MGU UB W FI W I WI W B W B V P K Y W M BU F F F M K 0 I I G P M UB B W W UB 0 K WK I P K G B 0 & 0 F I P 00 I I 0 VU 0 0 P K VIW M Y B 0 IG I 0 VI P K MU I B 0 0 W W P U M UI UB B B I UM FU 0 UM 0 B K I B P K P K M UB FI 0 P WI 0 W K UB 0 0 IV MY V I PUB I U I I KW MI 0 V I I o ur se G I FI P 0 0 MKIY UB G FI F 0 I 0 0 FI I I I BIG B Y I 0 B M P K B V 0 K IV W UB I Y U B U I Go l f MY W W W M Y U 0 F BKW I W KW Y W 0 PI Y - BIG 0 0 rd FIIG FI MU Y I G P K 0 P K B 0 F IV I G I F I V I W I GW V W Y K UB W I V 0 BIG 00 GVI W I IG FI FI P K U GVIW UB 0 & I FI K FK I UV P IV B P Y B I FI I 0 K I B I a u rel - I I I I IG - M B P K BK I IG IG I 0 IG I B G B UF F V M I V FI B K 00 MI WI FI F I MUY 0 I Y V G UB MI UB I 0 B IG I I I Y F U V I B P K P K 0 B I I I V BK IG IV P K I V FI IG I W B I FI B K 0 - V I I M Y I V V I G V I F I I I IG MUY I B V B I I G B I G B G 0 B VI W P K 0 V VI W B B GU K PI I G MI M B V MI Z I I M Y MUI VIW I I B U M Y I P G B P K U M W I P U U I P P K B B F I M P M F I GWY U I P FI I MB P -B- F W.. B I V Y W I G B PI F I Y.. U I P U I P G B I BU F M

26 aurel Public chools emographic tudy evelopment Potential in the aurel chool istrict here is a considerable amount of land within the school district that is vacant or used for agricultural purposes but much of this land also has a good potential for gradual conversion to residential uses that will generate future students for the schools. here are many factors that directly influence how a parcel of land is developed. hese include local and regional economy, developer financing, market demand and extension of water and sewer services. ll of these factors with the exception water and sewer services are decisions made by a developer, but the decision to provide public water and sewer into an unserved area is an agreement between a developer and the ity of aurel. ity and ounty Planning Mechanisms Influencing and evelopment he ity of aurel Planning Board oversees planning, zoning, and subdivisions within the aurel Planning rea, the Yellowstone ounty Planning Board does this for land east of aurel to the Billings Planning rea and the arbon ounty Planning Board oversees land subdividing within the igh chool istrict land located in arbon ounty. he relatively small land area within arbon ounty has minimal housing construction potential and is not considered a significant factor in this study. dditional tudents esulting From ew ousing onstruction nticipated ousing onstruction ensity he conversion of vacant, agricultural or other undeveloped land to residential neighborhoods has a direct impact on aurel chools. he construction of new homes throughout the area has had an ongoing impact on the school. urrently with no public water or sewer services outside of the aurel city limits residential subdivisions have been at relatively low density typically with one-acre lots or larger. his has typically resulted in one house per acre and in many instances even less per acre. It is a goal of the ity of aurel to improve infrastructure and eventually provide services to limited areas outside ity limits but until this expanded infrastructure is in place, low density residential development will continue. he Growth Management Plan identifies two areas west and north of the current ity imits as key areas for future residential growth. ach of these areas includes undeveloped land and neither is currently served by public water or sewer, which is the main challenge the ity is facing in encouraging development in these areas. Population projections in the Growth Management Plan indicate a demand for 0 to new housing units within the next years. Potential and evelopment and esidential onstruction Information obtained from the ity of aurel Planning epartment and Public Works epartment brought forward eight specific land development projects that have potential for residential development or are in some point in the subdivision approval process. ther land parcels have been identified to have good potential for housing development and that are also consistent with the analysis contained in the aurel Growth Management Plan. K- onsultants Page

27 aurel Public chools emographic tudy Impacts of ousing onstruction on tudent nrollment In addition to student growth calculated by enrollment projections, there will further new students from the construction of new housing. he actual timing of this housing development cannot realistically be estimated as it is fully the decision of the land owner or the beneficiaries of land held in an estate, etc. Family economic situations and the local economy have a significant role in when and how vacant land transitions to residential development. We foresee this growth to be gradual, starting with the completion of existing subdivisions and the approval and start of construction of two subdivisions currently in the preliminary or final approval process, and a gradual transition from vacant or farm land to housing on parcels to the east and west of the ity of aurel. here may be: students resulting from two potential new subdivisions, students from available lots within existing subdivisions here is a potential for up to approximately more students resulting from the buildout of land with residential development potential identified by the aurel Growth Management Plan or this emographics tudy. his study makes some assumptions regarding future housing construction that are considered to be realistic and necessary to provide a reasonably accurate portrayal of future student enrollments. ome of the parcels identified are approved subdivisions that will be expanded, some have housing under construction, some are for sale and some are currently farmed. If all parcels were developed there would be approximately, housing units built. his construction would result in approximately children attending aurel schools. K- - new elementary or middle school students - - new middle school students - - new high school students he actual timing of this housing development cannot realistically be estimated as it is fully the decision of the land owner or the beneficiaries of land held in an estate, etc. Family economic situations and the local economy have a significant role in when and how vacant land transitions to residential development. hese land parcels and development impacts on aurel chools are summarized in able. K- onsultants Page

28 otes:. Blue highlight indicates approved subdivisions or land that is in the subdivision approval process.. Yellow highlight indicates land where approved lots are available.. o color indicates land with subdivision and housing development potential but no known plans or time frame.. Miscellaneous includes unbuilt lots in subdivisions throughout aurel and on land within the igh chool istrict in arbon ounty.. his list of potential future housing construction is a result of research into possible land development and residential construction in the aurel area and input from the aurel ity Planner oel aton, Public Works irector Kurt Markegard and local engineering firms.. pproximately. child per single family residential lot (ource: U.. ensus Bureau, merican Fact Finder). pproximately. child per multi-family unit (From research into similar other apartment developments in the area.). he aurel Growth Management Plan projects a demand for new dwelling units within years (0). able Potential and evelopment Impacts on aurel chools efer to Potential esidential evelopment Map for ocations Map ocation Parcel cres Potential and Utilization stimated ousing Mix Potential ousing Units Potential hildren ttending aurel chools K- egal ommunity Park acres residential Mobile one lena ubdivision residential lots ingle Family aylight cres ub acres residential ingle Family eumann/arlson 0 0 acres residential Multi Family 0 0 F Branstetter 0 0 acres residential ingle Family 0 G Fox acres residential ingle Family Foos acres residential ingle Family I chessler 0 acres residential ingle Family 0 J Fox 0 acres residential ingle Family K otter acres residential ingle Family Brookwood ubdivision unbuilt lots ingle Family M Pheasant Brook ub unbuilt lots ingle Family Montana Meadows ub unbuilt lot ingle Family ittle ude anchettes ub unbuilt lots ingle Family P Iron orse ubdivision unbuilt lots ingle Family Q onan acres residential ingle Family Brenden acres residential ingle Family Miller acres residential ingle Family 0 rlenbusch/ arr, Guenthner/Johnston acres ingle Family 0 Misc ther misc. subdivisions unbuilt lots ingle Family otal,

29 I P U PUBI U, M FBUY PI II VPM K J M Q KY FUU VPM PI U U U B U U 0 U U F U G U U I U J U K U U M U U U P U Q U 0 U 0 U MI. U K- U PI G I G F

30 aurel Public chools emographic tudy U U M UI It is challenging to predict how many students there will be in aurel schools over the next 0 to years. his is reliant on the local and regional economy and the construction of new homes. he farther into the future projections are made the more uncertain the numbers become. If, for example, the local, state or regional economy falls into slump or the oil industry has another boom cycle, it will indeed impact the number of children resulting from the construction of new housing. he reasons for families to move into an area or to have children can sway up or down or change with trends, the economy, and local circumstances. It is well documented that aurel schools have had an up and down growth pattern with a gradual increase in K- enrollment of students over the past 0 years. he 0-year average for K- enrollment is, students compared to the current,0 students. here are strong indicators, documented by enrollment projections, continuing land development, and residential construction that ongoing growth of school-age children will continue, likely at a more rapid rate that in the past and additional students should be anticipated and planned for. nother factor that is increasingly impacting the total number of students, especially in the upper grades, is out-of-district students. aurel igh chool is experiencing a growing number of students from Park ity, Joliet and lder Grove chool. lder Grove chool, located between Billings and aurel, is experiencing significant growth because of a rapidly growing number of houses being constructed within their school district. istorically about % of lder Grove s graduating th grade students choose to attend high school in aurel. n increasing number of th grade students from lder Grove should be anticipated. he estimates in this report have been developed using a variety of time-tested methodologies with the intent of providing accurate and reliable indications of likely futures. he key components that led to the following enrollment conclusions are:. Projections based upon birth rates and cohort survival calculations rather than incorporating past trends in enrollments. elying on the past enrollment trends to be repeated is unlikely based upon indicators of future population and student growth.. aurel population growth will be at a slightly faster rate in the next 0 years compared to the last 0 years.. he ity of aurel is planning for upgrades and expansions to its water and sewer infrastructure which can lead to an expanded service area and higher density residential development. igher density provides more students in the schools.. aurel Growth Management Plan projects a demand for new housing units by 0. his is approximately new housing units constructed each year.. he number of th grade students coming from lder Grove chool is expected to be substantially greater than it has been in the past. K- onsultants Page

31 aurel Public chools emographic tudy able summarizes future student enrollments. able ummary of tudent nrollment Growth nrollment K- - - otal urrent - 0,0 years,0 0 years,00, years, 0,0, ote: able includes data from calculated enrollment projections, projections of out-of-district students and estimated students from housing construction based upon the housing demand stated in the aurel Growth Management Plan. o better understand and evaluate the total student enrollment growth in able it is necessary to also see the three components that comprise the total: () calculated enrollment projections, () students resulting from new housing construction, and () out-of-district students. he base value is the calculated number of students, to that is added students from a realistic amount of housing construction and those coming from out-of-district.. hort erm -Year tudent nrollment Growth - dditional tudents Projections of new students based upon birth rates, anticipated housing construction and likely additional out-of-district students provide a good overall understanding of potential student population within the next five years. Five-Year Impacts from nrollment Projections here may be an increase of K- students based on an analysis of past enrollment trends and cohort survival calculations. K- - students - 0 additional students over current enrollment - - students - a decrease of students over current enrollment - - students - additional students over current enrollment Five-Year Impacts from ousing onstruction here may be or more new housing units and 0 additional students K- - additional elementary students - - additional middle school students - - additional high school students K- onsultants Page