Local Outlook: Fergus County. By Paul E. Polzin Director Emeritus Bureau of Business and Economic Research The University of Montana

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1 Local Outlook: Fergus County By Paul E. Polzin Director Emeritus Bureau of Business and Economic Research The University of Montana

2 Montana s Economic Regions Kalispell Havre Missoula Helena Great Falls Lewistown Anaconda Butte Bozeman Billings

3 Annual Percent Change in Nonfarm Labor Income (in Constant Dollars), Percent Montana Rural Northeast Lewis and Clark Cascade Fergus Hill

Annual Percent Change in Nonfarm Labor Income (in Constant Dollars), 2009-2013

4 Annual Percent Change in Nonfarm Labor Income (in Constant Dollars), Percent Montana Rural Southeast Yellowstone Gallatin

Annual Percent Change in Nonfarm Labor Income (in Constant Dollars), 2009-2013 Percent 6 5 4 3

5 Annual Percent Change in Nonfarm Labor Income (in Constant Dollars), Percent Montana Rural West Flathead Silver Bow Deerlodge 0.9 Ravalli 0.5 Missoula

6 Inflation Adjusted Nonfarm Earnings and Nonfarm Employment, Fergus County, U.S. Recession Begins U.S. Recession Trough 1.2 Nonfarm Earnings Nonfarm Employment '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13

7 Fergus County s Economic Base Rehabilitation, Travel State Government Federal Government Manufacturing Ag and Related 6% 17% 23% 19% 35% Modest growth Pay freeze over Stable, at best Recovering Slightly weaker, but still OK

8 Actual and Projected Change in Nonfarm Earnings, Fergus County, Percent Actual Projected '10 11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Projected Annual Percent Change In Nonfarm Labor Income (in constant dollars), 2014-2017 Percent 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.

9 Projected Annual Percent Change In Nonfarm Labor Income (in constant dollars), Percent Montana 3.3 Rual Northeast Lewis and Clark Cascade Fergus Hill

10 Projected Annual Percent Change In Nonfarm Labor Income (in constant dollars), Percent Montana Rural West Flathead Silver Bow Deerlodge Ravalli 2.4 Missoula

0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 4.4 3.

11 Projected Annual Percent Change In Nonfarm Labor Income (in constant dollars), Percent Montana Rural Southeast Yellowstone Gallatin

12 Economic Trends in The Bakken By Paul E. Polzin Natural Resource and Energy Research Program Bureau of Business and Economic Research The University of Montana

14 Annual Percent Change in Nonfarm Earnings (in Constant Dollars), Percent Montana Richland Fallon North Dakota Williams Mountrail

15 Annual Percent Change in Nonfarm Earnings (in Constant Dollars), and Percent Montana Richland Fallon North Dakota Williams Mountrail

16 Nonfarm Earnings, Richland and Williams Counties, Constant 2012 Dollars 6.9 U.S. Recession Begins Williams 5.9 U.S. Recession Trough Richland '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

17 Nonfarm Earnings, Fallon and Mountrail Counties, Constant 2012 Dollars 5.9 U.S. Recession Begins Mountrail 4.9 U.S. Recession Trough 3.9 Fallon '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

18 Richland County s Economic Base Mil. Of 2012 $ $ $109 Other Fed. Gov. Manufacturing Ag. And Related Transportation Oil and Gas

19 Fallon County s Economic Base Mil. Of 2012 $ $27 $ Other Ag. And Related Transportation Oil and Gas

20 Williams County s Economic Base Mil. Of 2012 $ $103 $1, Other Ag. And Related Manufacturing Fed. Gov. Transportation Oil and Gas

21 Mountrail County s Economic Base Mil. Of 2012 $ 250 $ $ Other Ag. And Related Fed. Gov. Transportation Oil and Gas

22 Wages and Salary Per Worker, All Industries Wages and Salary per Worker, Richland County (2012$), All Industries 2012 Dollars Percent of Mt , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Wages and Salary per Worker, Williams County (2012$), All Industries 2012 Dollars Percent of ND , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , %

23 Wages and Salary per Worker, Retail Trade Wages and Salary per Worker, Richland County (2012$), Retail Trade 2012 Dollars Percent of Mt , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Wages and Salary per Worker, Williams County (2012$), Retail Trade 2012 Dollars Percent of ND , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , %

24 Wages and Salary per Worker, Accommodations Industry Wages and Salary per Worker, Richland County (2012$), Accommodations 2012 Dollars Percent of Mt , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Wages and Salary per Worker, Williams County (2012$), Accommodations 2012 Dollars Percent of ND , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , %

25 Wages and Salary per Worker, Food Services Industry Wages and Salary per Worker, Richland County (2012$), Food Service 2012 Dollars Percent of Mt , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Wages and Salary per Worker, Williams County (2012$), Food Service 2012 Dollars Percent of ND , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , %

26 Oil and Gas Industry Components NAICS Code Industry Title 211 Oil and Gas Extraction Drilling of Oil and Gas Wells Support Activity for Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction 486 Pipeline Transportation 4842 Specialized Freight Trucking

27 Employment and Wages per Worker, Oil and Gas Industry, 2012 Richland County Montana Employment Wages Employment Wages Extraction , ,159 Drilling , ,100 Suport Activities ,500 2,122 86,100 Pipeline Construction , ,200 Pipeline Transportation 72 85, ,400 Specialized Trucking ,800 NA NA

28 Questions?

Local Outlook: Butte-Anaconda. By Paul E. Polzin Director Emeritus Bureau of Business and Economic Research The University of Montana

Local Outlook: Butte-Anaconda. By Paul E. Polzin Director Emeritus Bureau of Business and Economic Research The University of Montana Local Outlook: Butte-Anaconda By Paul E. Polzin Director Emeritus Bureau of Business and Economic Research The University of Montana Montana s Economic Regions Kalispell Havre Missoula Helena Great Falls