BUSINESS OUTLOOK PRESENTATION

Transcription

1 BUSINESS OUTLOOK PRESENTATION REVENUE & TRANSPORTATION INTERIM COMMITTEE SEPTEMBER 4, 2014 Glenn Oppel Government Relations Director Chamber of Commerce

2 SURVEY OVERVIEW Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank 2014 Business Outlook Survey for the 9 th District Includes ND, SD, MN, MI Upper Peninsula, Northwestern WI, and Conducted November ,008 surveys mailed 321 respondents 113 surveys mailed to, 32 respondents Released in January 2014 Survey responses over 50% indicate expansion, those below 50% indicate contraction

3 SURVEY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY AFFILIATION 35 Survey Industry Affiliation

4 NATIONAL ECONOMY GDP Real gross state product (GDP) has risen about 3% per year since WWII. Compared to that average performance, which of the following best describes how you expect the national economy to perform over the next year? Real GDP Growth National Economy 6 % or More 0% 0% 4% to 5% 6% 9% 3 % 24% 28% 1% to 2% 63% 64% 0 % or Below 0% 6%

5 NATIONAL ECONOMY CPI The consumer price index (CPI) has risen at a 3% annual rate over the past 20 years. Compared to the average performance, which of the following best describes how you expect consumer prices to change over the next year. CPI Change 5 % or More 3% 3% Around 4 % 25% Around 3 % 36% 41% Around 2 % 28% 35% 1 % or Below 3% 7%

6 STATE/LOCAL ECONOMY MONTANA Overall, what is your outlook for your community s economy? 100% Optimistic v. Pessimistic from ( & All) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 All 2011 MT 2012 All 2012 MT 2013 All 2013 MT 2014 All 2014 MT Optimistic 63% 60% 62% 48% 56% 51% 74% 88% Pessimistic 37% 40% 38% 52% 44% 49% 26% 12%

7 STATE/LOCAL ECONOMY 9 TH DISTRICT

8 STATE/LOCAL ECONOMY KEY INDICATORS Based on your knowledge of your community s businesses and industries, how do you see the following aspects of its economy changing in 2014? Business Investment Employment 38% 53% 36% 56% 38% 43% 28% 44% 9% 20% 16% 20% Consumer Spending Housing Starts 34% 29% 47% 55% 47% 52% 29% 34% 16%

9 STATE/LOCAL ECONOMY FOCUS ON HOUSING STARTS January June 2014 Housing Starts Compared to Same Period 2013 and % 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Cascade Flathead Gallatin Lewis & Clark Missoula Silverbow/ Butte Yellowstone Statewide 2014 Starts Compared to % 7% 25% -15% 117% -42% -32% -5% 2014 Starts Compared to % -56% -23% -50% -50% -25% -21% -47% Source: Building Industry Association

10 STATE/LOCAL ECONOMY KEY INDICATORS Based on your knowledge of your community s businesses and industries, how do you see wages and salaries changing in 2014? Wages & Salaries Growth GREATER THAN 5% 0% 0% 4% to 5% 3% 7% 2% to 3% 68% 72% 0% to 1% 25% 26%

11 PROSPECTS MONTANA With regard to your company or organization, how do you see operations changing during the next year? Sales Full-Time Employees 47% 48% 30% 44% 41% 35% 47% 51% 13% 17% 9% 18% Investment Prices 38% 31% 33% 41% 50% 50% 41% 52% 13% 16% 15%

12 PROSPECTS ALL BY INDUSTRY

13 CHALLENGES How much of a challenge will the following issues pose for your company or organization in 2014? Securing Workers Securing Non-Labor Inputs NO CHALLENGE 22% 17% NO CHALLENGE 45% 55% SOME WHAT CHALLENGE 26% SOME WHAT CHALLENGE 36% 45% CHALLENGE 41% 38% CHALLENGE 6% 9% SERIOUS CHALLENGE SERIOUS CHALLENGE 3% 1% Implementing New Technology Complying with Gov't Regulations NO CHALLENGE 13% NO CHALLENGE 6% 9% SOME WHAT CHALLENGE 56% 46% SOME WHAT CHALLENGE 15% CHALLENGE 25% 31% CHALLENGE 34% 35% SERIOUS CHALLENGE 6% 4% SERIOUS CHALLENGE 41% 41%

14 SUMMARY Optimism for 2014 at 7-year high, with 37-point jump for from 2013 Overall, companies expected solid increases in all key indicators Higher productivity with increases in capital investment, especially in oil & gas and Dakotas had highest indication of positive hiring Top concerns are gov t regulation and the skills gap

15 LINKS TO SOURCES Minneapolis Fed Minneapolis fedgazette Business Outlook Survey