Today s Uncertain Economy: Implications for P/C Insurance

Transcription

1 Today s Uncertain Economy: Implications for P/C Insurance CAMAR Spring Meeting Great Valley, PA May 24, 2018 Steven N. Weisbart, Ph.D., CLU, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY Tel: Cell: stevenw@iii.org

2 The Strength of the Economy Will Influence the Insurance Environment Premium Rates, Claims, and Investment Income Will Be Affected 2

3 The Economy Drives P/C Insurance Industry Premiums: Net Premium Growth (All P/C Lines) vs. Nominal GDP: Annual Change, % NWP GDP 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% Except for the three hard markets in this 47-year period, Net Written Premiums track Nominal GDP not year by year but fairly well. Sources: A.M. Best ( ), ISO ( ); U.S. Commerce Dept., Bureau of Economic Analysis; I.I.I. 3

4 But How Strong Is the Economy, Really? 4

5 09:3Q 10:1Q 10:3Q 11:1Q 11:3Q 12:1Q 12:3Q 13:1Q 13:3Q 14:1Q 14:3Q 15:1Q 15:3Q 16:1Q 16:3Q 17:1Q 17:3Q 18:1Q Real GDP Growth U.S. Post-Recession Real GDP Growth,* Quarterly, 2009:Q3-2018:Q1 6% The start of sustained 3+% growth? 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Since the Great Recession ended, the economy (as measured by real GDP) grew faster than 3% (at an annual rate) in a calendar quarter only 10 times in 35 quarters. Only twice in the last 14. **Percent change from previous quarter, seasonally-adjusted at an annual rate Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; Insurance Information Institute. 5

6 ISM Manufacturing Index (Values > 50 Indicate Expansion), January 2010-April Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 The manufacturing sector expanded in 67 of the 70 months from January 2010 through October It contracted in November 2015 through February 2016 and again in August 2016 but is expanding again. Sources: Institute for Supply Management; Insurance Information Institute. 6

7 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Values > 50 Indicate Expansion), January 2010-April Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Jan 13 May 13 Sep 13 Jan 14 May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16 Sep 16 Jan 17 May 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 The non-manufacturing sector expanded in every month After January The pace of expansion roared ahead in , slowed a bit in 2016, but is now as strong as it has been since the end of the Great Recession. Sources: Institute for Supply Management via Insurance Information Institute. 7

8 Yearly U.S. Real GDP Growth: Range of Forecasts, % Top 10 Avg Median Bottom 10 Avg 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.0% Tough times ahead? Forecasts expect U.S. growth to slow markedly by 2020, then rebound mildly into Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, March 2018 issue; Insurance Information Institute. 8

9 State-by-State Leading Indicators through September Near-term growth forecasts vary widely by state. Strongest growth = blue (over 4.5%); dark green (1.5%-4.5%); then light green; then gray; weakest = pink Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia at released May 3, 2018; Next release is June 5, 2018; Insurance Information Institute. 9

10 Strongest Growth State Forecast Growth UT 4.36 NM 3.55 WY 3.49 OK 3.32 Weakest States in Top Growth Category State Forecast Growth MI 1.59 OR 1.59 AZ 1.60 SD 1.63 MN 1.64 Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia at released May 3, 2018; Next release is June 5, 2018; Insurance Information Institute. 10

11 Duration (Months) Length of US Business Cycles, 1960 Present* Contraction Expansion Following Apr 1960 Dec 1969 Nov 1973 Jan 1980 Jul 1981 Jul 1990 Mar 2001 Dec Month Recession Started The length of the expansions greatly exceeds the length of contractions (recessions) *Through May 2018; June 2009 was the official end of recession. Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research; Insurance Information Institute. 11

12 12 Labor Market Trends Continuing Job Gains in the Private Sector Offset Flat Public Sector Employment 12

13 Millions The Civilian Labor Force Jan Apr If you are unemployed but haven t looked for work in the past four weeks, you aren t counted in the labor force. So it ebbs and grows according to perceived job opportunities. Latest reading: million in Apr near a peak Prosperity can appear to be trouble: The unemployment rate can increase if the civilian work force grows faster than the number newly employed. 145 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 In February 2018, the workforce grew by 806,000. This big a jump is rare. The last time the workforce grew by over 800,000 was January 2003 (up 871,000). Notes: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. Data are seasonally adjusted. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates). 13

14 2010:Q1 2010:Q2 2010:Q3 2010:Q4 2011:Q1 2011:Q2 2011:Q3 2011:Q4 2012:Q1 2012:Q2 2012:Q3 2012:Q4 2013:Q1 2013:Q2 2013:Q3 2013:Q4 2014:Q1 2014:Q2 2014:Q3 2014:Q4 2015:Q1 2015:Q2 2015:Q3 2015:Q4 2016:Q1 2016:Q2 2016:Q3 2016:Q4 2017:Q1 2017:Q2 2017:Q3 2017:Q4 2018:Q Nonfarm Employment, Quarterly Change, * Thousands 1, (200) (400) After a strong , the pace of job growth has slowed somewhat. *Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute 14

15 Full-time vs. Part-time Employment, Quarterly, Full time, millions Pre-recession, most new jobs were full-time Recession Full-time Part-time Recession shifted employment growth from fulltime to part-time New full-time peak Part-time, millions The Great Recession shifted employment from full-time to part-time. Full-time employment is finally above its pre-recession peak, but part-time hasn t receded. Data are seasonally-adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor; Insurance Information Institute. 15

16 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Opposite Trends for Components of Part-time Employment, Thousands 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Non-Economic Reasons Recession Economic Reasons Headed back to prerecession levels New peak at 21.4 million in Mar Both lines are now moving in good directions. People who work part-time for economic reasons would prefer full-time work. People who work parttime for non-economic reasons want (or need) part-time work. Data are seasonally adjusted. Red-outlined box shows the Great Recession. Sources: and 16

17 Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Back to Normal? January 2000 through April 2018 Seasonally Adjusted (%) 18 "Headline" Unemployment Rate U-3 Unemployment + Underemployment Rate U-6 For U-6, 7.5% to 9.5% is normal. U-6 went from 8.0% in March 2007 to 17.5% in October 2009 U-6 was 7.8% in Apr Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Based on the latest readings, it appears that the job market is now back to normal Jan 13 Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute. Jan 14 Jan- 15 Jan- 16 Jan- 17 Jan- 18 Headline unemployment was 3.9% in Apr % to 5.5% is normal. 17

18 Thousands 1,400 1,200 1, Number of Discouraged Workers : Back In a Normal Range Jan Apr A discouraged worker in a month did not actively look for work in the prior month for reasons such as --thinks no work available, --could not find work, --lacks schooling or training, --thinks employer thinks too young or old, and other types of discrimination. Latest reading: 408,000 in Apr Normal 0 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 In recent good times, the number of discouraged workers ranged from 200, ,000 ( ) or from 300, ,000 ( ). Notes: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Data are seasonally adjusted. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates). 18

19 05:Q1 05:Q3 06:Q1 06:Q3 07:Q1 07:Q3 08:Q1 08:Q3 09:Q1 09:Q3 10:Q1 10:Q3 11:Q1 11:Q3 12:Q1 12:Q3 13:Q1 13:Q3 14:Q1 14:Q3 15:Q1 15:Q3 16:Q1 16:Q3 17:Q1 17:Q3 18:Q1 19 Billions $9,000 $8,500 $8,000 $7,500 $7,000 $6,500 $6,000 $5,500 Nonfarm Payroll (Wages and Salaries): Quarterly, 2005:Q1 2018:Q1 Prior peak was 2008:Q3 at $6.54 trillion Recent trough (2009:Q1) was $6.23 trillion, down 5.3% from prior peak Latest (2018:Q1) was $8.60 trillion, a new peak--$2.37t above 2009 trough Y-o-Y Growth rates 2011:Q1 over 2010:Q1: 5.5% 2012:Q1 over 2011:Q1: 3.9% 2013:Q1 over 2012:Q1: 2.3% 2014:Q1 over 2013:Q1: 5.2% 2015:Q1 over 2014:Q1: 4.9% 2016:Q1 over 2015:Q1: 3.2% 2017:Q1 over 2016:Q1: 3.4% 2018:Q1 over 2017:Q1: 4.5% Note: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. Data are seasonally adjusted annual rates. Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. 19

20 2010:Q1 2010:Q2 2010:Q3 2010:Q4 2011:Q1 2011:Q2 2011:Q3 2011:Q4 2012:Q1 2012:Q2 2012:Q3 2012:Q4 2013:Q1 2013:Q2 2013:Q3 2013:Q4 2014:Q1 2014:Q2 2014:Q3 2014:Q4 2015:Q1 2015:Q2 2015:Q3 2015:Q4 2016:Q1 2016:Q2 2016:Q3 2016:Q4 2017:Q1 2017:Q2 2017:Q3 2017:Q4 2018:Q1 Manufacturing Employment, 2010:Q1 2018:Q1 (Thousands) 12,800 12,600 12,631 12,400 12,200 12,000 11,800 11,600 11,400 Y-o-Y Growth rates 2011:Q1 over 2010:Q1: 1.9% 2012:Q1 over 2011:Q1: 1.9% 2013:Q1 over 2012:Q1: 0.8% 2014:Q1 over 2013:Q1: 1.0% 2015:Q1 over 2014:Q1: 1.6% 2016:Q1 over 2015:Q1: 0.3% 2017:Q1 over 2016:Q1: 0.4% 2018:Q1 over 2017:Q1: 1.9% Construction and manufacturing employment constitute 1/3 of all workers comp payroll exposure. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at Insurance Information Institute. 22

21 2010:Q1 2010:Q2 2010:Q3 2010:Q4 2011:Q1 2011:Q2 2011:Q3 2011:Q4 2012:Q1 2012:Q2 2012:Q3 2012:Q4 2013:Q1 2013:Q2 2013:Q3 2013:Q4 2014:Q1 2014:Q2 2014:Q3 2014:Q4 2015:Q1 2015:Q2 2015:Q3 2015:Q4 2016:Q1 2016:Q2 2016:Q3 2016:Q4 2017:Q1 2017:Q2 2017:Q3 2017:Q4 2018:Q1 Construction Employment, 2010:Q1 2018:Q1 (Thousands) 7,250 7,000 6,750 6,500 6,250 6,000 5,750 5,500 Y-o-Y Growth rates 2011:Q1 over 2010:Q1: -1.1% 2012:Q1 over 2011:Q1: 2.7% 2013:Q1 over 2012:Q1: 3.1% 2014:Q1 over 2013:Q1: 4.1% 2015:Q1 over 2014:Q1: 4.9% 2016:Q1 over 2015:Q1: 5.5% 2017:Q1 over 2016:Q1: 3.5% 2018:Q1 over 2017:Q1: 3.4% 7,157 5,250 Construction and manufacturing employment constitute 1/3 of all workers comp payroll exposure. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at Insurance Information Institute. 23

22 2010:Q1 2010:Q2 2010:Q3 2010:Q4 2011:Q1 2011:Q2 2011:Q3 2011:Q4 2012:Q1 2012:Q2 2012:Q3 2012:Q4 2013:Q1 2013:Q2 2013:Q3 2013:Q4 2014:Q1 2014:Q2 2014:Q3 2014:Q4 2015:Q1 2015:Q2 2015:Q3 2015:Q4 2016:Q1 2016:Q2 2016:Q3 2016:Q4 2017:Q1 2017:Q2 2017:Q3 2017:Q4 2018:Q1 90 Coal Mining Employment, 2010:Q1 2018:Q1 (Thousands) Y-o-Y Growth rates 2011:Q1 over 2010:Q1: 6.7% 2012:Q1 over 2011:Q1: 5.3% 2013:Q1 over 2012:Q1: -10.5% 2014:Q1 over 2013:Q1: -7.4% 2015:Q1 over 2014:Q1: -7.6% 2016:Q1 over 2015:Q1: -23.5% 2017:Q1 over 2016:Q1: -1.7% 2018:Q1 over 2017:Q1: 2.1% 52.3 Construction and manufacturing employment constitute 1/3 of all workers comp payroll exposure. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at Insurance Information Institute. 24

23 25 P/C Insurance Industry: Financial Update 2017 Was a Tough Year 25

24 Net Premium Growth (All P/C Lines): Annual Change, % % 16% 12% 8% 2017: 4.6% 2016: 2.7% 2015: 3.4% 2014: 4.1% 2013: 4.4% 2012: 4.2% 4% 0% -4% Shaded areas denote hard market periods Sources: A.M. Best ( ), ISO ( ). Net Written Premiums rose 4.6% in 2017, the best one-year gain since

25 Commercial & Personal Lines NPW Growth: % Commercial Lines Personal Lines 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 6.7% 3.3% -5% -10% Commercial Lines is Prone to Much More Cyclical Volatility Than Personal Lines. Note: Data include state funds beginning in Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. 27

26 Underwriting Performance

27 Business Nonresidential Fixed Investment Tracks Commercial Property Premium Growth % change from same quarter, prior year 20% 10% Recession % change, property ins premiums % change, fixed investment 7.3% 0% -10% -20% 07:Q1 08:Q1 09:Q1 10:Q1 11:Q1 12:Q1 13:Q1 14:Q1 15:Q1 16:Q1 17:Q1 Econometric forecasts of business fixed investment anticipate growth of 4.5% 7.0% in 2018 and at 2.5% 6.5% in Investment in structures, equipment, and software is expected to grow at least partly due to the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. *Commercial property direct premiums written (fire, allied lines, CMP, inland marine, burglary and theft); business fixed investment (structures, equipment, and software). Note: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. Data are seasonally adjusted annual rates. Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. 29

28 Net Underwriting Gains & Losses, Annually, $ Billions $30 $21.6 $20 $10 $0 Net Underwriting Losses Have Been the Norm. $1.5 3 Consecutive Years of U/W Profits; 1 st time since $17.5 $14.2 $11.2 -$10 -$8.3 -$2.5 -$20 -$19.7 -$13.9 -$20.6 -$30 -$40 -$ /14/15 were welcome respites from 2008/11/12, which were among the costliest years for insured disaster losses in U.S. history. The longer-term trend is for more not fewer costly events. Sources: SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute. 30

29 P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, * 3 Consecutive Years of U/W Profits; 1 st time since Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net Losses. Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market 2d worst combined ratio since Sandy *Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.1; 2012:=103.2; 2013: = 96.1; 2014: = Sources: A.M. Best; ISO, a Verisk Analytics company; I.I.I. 31

30 Billions, 2016 $ U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses, $90 $80 $70 $60 $77.1 Insured CAT losses surpassed $30 billion in 7 of the last 17 years (only once in the prior 12 years) $53.3 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $14.7 $8.4 $5.1 $39.6 $9.3 $27.7 $13.2 $11.5 $4.0 $15.1 $12.1 $6.4 $36.4 $7.9 $17.1 $35.3 $11.1 $7.8 $30.7 $15.2 $12.0 $35.2 $36.8 $23.3 $15.8 $15.3 $13.3 $ In the ten years since 2001 when CAT losses were below $30 billion, the yearly average was $13.8 billion. Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars). Sources: Property Claims Service, a Verisk Analytics business; Insurance Information Institute. 32

31 Number of Large Hail Storms, US, For hail storms, is the worst over? The average number of storms in the last 5 years is less than half of the number in Is this the new normal? Sources and earlier years; Insurance Information Institute. 33

32 TX KS NE OK MO IA SD MN IL ND CO WI TN AR AL MS NM IN VA KY GA OH NC LA SC Number of Large Hail Storms, Top 25 States, In 2017, five states averaged over one large hail storm per day. 600 Together, these five accounted for 42% of all hail storms nationwide CAT claims are significant in some calendar quarters and less so in others. They are 8-10% of total claims every Q2, but in Q1 usually only 4-5%. Sources ; Insurance Information Institute. 34

33 TN AR AL MS VA KY GA NC LA SC FL WV NY PA MD NJ DE VT MA ME NH CT RI AK HI Number of Large Hail Storms, 2017, Varied Widely by State and Region Southeast Mid-Atlantic New England 0 Sources ; Insurance Information Institute. 35

34 TX OK NM AZ CO MT WY ID UT OR CA NV WA IL WI IN OH MI KS NE MO IA SD MN ND Number of Large Hail Storms, 2017, Varies Widely by State and Region Southwest 600 Great Plains 400 Mountain Great Lakes 200 Far West 0 Source: NAIC 36

35 90:Q1 91:Q1 92:Q1 93:Q1 94:Q1 95:Q1 96:Q1 97:Q1 98:Q1 99:Q1 00:Q1 01:Q1 02:Q1 03:Q1 04:Q1 05:Q1 06:Q1 07:Q1 08:Q1 09:Q1 10:Q1 11:Q1 12:Q1 13:Q1 14:Q1 15:Q1 16:Q1 16:Q3 17:Q3 To rent or to buy? Millions of renteroccupied housing units Renter-occupied Owner-occupied Millions of owneroccupied housing units Since 2004 the number of renter-occupied housing units has grown by about 10.5 million units (+34%), but there has been no growth in the number of owner-occupied housing units in 12 years. Did this streak end in 2017? Sources: U.S. Census Bureau at Table 8; Insurance Information Institute. 37

36 Investments Investment Performance is a Key Driver of Profitability Depressed Yields Will Necessarily Influence Underwriting & Pricing

37 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% US Treasury Note 10-Year Yields: A Long Downward Trend, * Yields on 10-Year US Treasury Notes have been below 3% for over 5 years: 10- year bonds bought in 2008 at 4% will be reinvested at 2.9% for 10 more years 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Recession 10-Yr Yield The end of the downtrend? '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Since nearly 50% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 5-year or longer maturities, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come. *Monthly, constant maturity, nominal rates, through April Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. 46

38 May 2018: Quarterly Yield Forecasts for 10-Year US Treasury Bonds in Yield (%) Most Pessimistic Median 10 Most Optimistic :Q2 2018:Q3 2018:Q4 2019:Q1 2019:Q2 2019:Q3 2019:Q4 Most of the 53 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey expect continual increases in the yield of 10-year T-bonds in Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (5/18); Insurance Information Institute 47

39 P/C Insurer Portfolio Yields, % P/C Carrier Yields Have Been Falling for Over a Decade, Reflecting the Long Downtrend in Prevailing Interest Rates. 5% 4% 3% % 1% 0% Even as Prevailing Rates Rise in the Next Few Years, Portfolio Yields Are Unlikely to Rise Quickly, Since Low Yields of Recent Years Are Baked In to Future Returns. Sources: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute. 48

40 Sources of investment gains Billions $80 Net investment income Realized capital gains/losses $60 $7.8 $7.6 $8.7 $18.4 $11.8 $10.1 $8.5 $19.4 $40 $20 $53.1 $48.4 $48.1 $50.9 $50.3 $49.3 $54.9 $48.8 $47.5 $49.3 $0 -$20.1 -$7.8 -$ Net investment income has been steady, but realized capital gains/losses have been somewhat variable. Sources: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute. 49

41 Profits and Capacity

42 P/C industry net income after taxes* Billions, 2017 dollars $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $57.4 $32.2 $32.1 $53.8 $40.6 $46.9 $33.9 $10 $19.1 $23.6 $0 $5.4 $ In the first three quarters of the year, net income varied was the fourth lowest profit in the last 11 years. *Through third quarter. Adjusted for inflation using the BLS CPI calculator, to 2017 dollars. Sources: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute. 51

43 Key sources of P/C insurer profits $ Billions $80 $60 Net investment gains Underwriting gains/losses $17.5 $14.2 $11.2 $40 $1.5 $55.9 $58.5 $59.0 $67.7 $66.7 $58.8 $55.9 $68.7 $20 $33.0 $40.6 $0 -$20 -$19.7 -$8.3 -$35.3 -$13.9 -$2.4 -$20.6 -$ Data are before taxes and exclude extraordinary items. Sources: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute. 52

44 ROE Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, % 20% 19.0% 17.3% If historical patterns hold, next ROE peak could be in % 10% 11.6% 12.7% 12 Years? 9.8% 8.4% 6.2% 5% 4.5% 5.0% 0% 2.4% 1.8% -5% -1.2% *Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs figures are estimates based on ROAS data. Note: Data for exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. Sources: Insurance Information Institute; Natl. Assoc. of Insurance Comm.; ISO, a Verisk Analytics company; A.M. Best, Conning. 53

45 ($ Billions) $800 Policyholder Surplus, Year-end, Surplus as of 12/31/17 stood at $752.5B $700 $600 Surplus grew by 7.4% over 12/31/2016 $500 $ The industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.73 of NPW, the strongest claims-paying status in its history. The P/C insurance industry entered 2018 in very strong financial condition. Sources: ISO, A.M.Best. 54

46 Thank you