STATE OF THE LINE REPORT
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1 ANNUAL ISSUES SYMPOSIUM STATE OF THE LINE REPORT T H E KATHY ANTONELLO, FCAS, FSA, MAAA CHIEF ACTUARY NCCI Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2 ANNUAL ISSUES SYMPOSIUM PROPERTY/CASUALTY (P/C) RESULTS Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
3 P/C Industry Net Written Premium Growth Private Carriers Line of Business 2015 ($B) 2016p ($B) % Change From 2015 Personal Auto Homeowners Other Liability (Incl Prod Liab) Workers Compensation Commercial Multiple Peril Fire & Allied Lines (Incl EQ) Commercial Auto All Other Lines Total P/C Industry p Preliminary Source: National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC s) Annual Statement data for individual carriers prior to consolidation of affiliated carriers; includes carrier data available as of 4/7/ Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3
4 P/C Industry Net Combined Ratio Private Carriers Line of Business 2015 (%) 2016p (%) Difference From 2015 Personal Auto Homeowners Other Liability (Incl Prod Liab) Workers Compensation Commercial Multiple Peril Fire & Allied Lines (Incl EQ) Commercial Auto All Other Lines Total P/C Industry p Preliminary Source: NAIC s Annual Statement data for individual carriers prior to consolidation of affiliated carriers; includes carrier data available as of 4/7/ Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4
5 P/C Industry Net Combined Ratio Private Carriers Percent % Lower p p Preliminary Sources: and p, NAIC s Annual Statement data , ISO Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Calendar Year 5
6 P/C Industry Investment Gain Ratio Private Carriers Percent 25 Net Realized Capital Gains to Net Earned Premium Net Investment Income to Net Earned Premium % lower p p Preliminary Sources: and p, NAIC s Annual Statement data , ISO Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Calendar Year 6
7 P/C Industry After-Tax Return on Surplus Private Carriers Percent Average ( ): 7.8% p p Preliminary Sources: and p, NAIC s Annual Statement data , ISO After-tax return on average surplus, excluding unrealized capital gains Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Calendar Year 7
8 P/C Industry Premium-to-Surplus Ratio Private Carriers Premium-to-Surplus Ratio p $Billions NWP Surplus $150B $ $100B $528 0 p Preliminary Sources: and p, NAIC s Annual Statement data , ISO Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8
9 ANNUAL ISSUES SYMPOSIUM WORKERS COMPENSATION (WC) PREMIUM Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
10 WC Net Written Premium Private Carriers and State Funds $ Billions 50 State Funds ($B) Private Carriers ($B) p Calendar Year p Preliminary Source: NAIC s Annual Statement data; includes state insurance fund data for the following states: AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, KY, LA, MD, MO, MT, NM, OK, OR, RI, TX, and UT Each calendar year total for state funds includes all funds operating as a state fund in that year Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10
11 Proportion of Total WC Premium Ceded % Ceded 31% Ceded Average Annual Growth Ceded (+13% per year) Direct & Assumed (+7% per year) Source: NAIC s Annual Statement data Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11
12 WC Residual Market Premium NCCI-Serviced WC Residual Market Pools $ Billions p Policy Year p Preliminary, incomplete policy year projected to ultimate Includes Pool data for all NCCI-serviced WC Residual Market Pool states, valued as of 12/31/2016 Tennessee Reinsurance Mechanism premium is not included Source: NCCI s Residual Market Quarterly Results Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
13 WC Residual Market Premium by Size of Risk NCCI-Administered WC Residual Market Plan States Premium ($ Millions) Size of Risk Q Q1 % Change From 2016 $ 0 2, $ 2,500 4, $ 5,000 9, $ 10,000 49, $ 50,000 99, $ 100,000 and Over Total Total estimated annual premium Includes Pool and direct assignment data for all NCCI-administered WC Residual Market Plan states Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13
14 WC Residual Market Share NCCI-Serviced WC Residual Market Pools Percent p Calendar Year p Preliminary Includes Pool and direct assignment data for all NCCI-serviced WC Residual Market Pool states Source: NCCI s Residual Market Management Summary Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
15 WC Direct Written Premium 2016 Growth Private Carriers +10% 0% 20% Source: 2015 and 2016, NAIC s Annual Statement Statutory Page 14 Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15
16 WC Direct Written Premium Change by Component Private Carriers NCCI States Change in Direct Written Premium: 0.0% 2016 vs Payroll +4.0% Loss Cost and Mix -2.7% Carrier Discounting -1.4% State Fund Conversion to Private Carrier +1.0% Other Factors -0.8% Sources: DWP Change: NAIC s Annual Statement Statutory Page 14 for all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services Components: NCCI Policy data Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16
17 Increases in Payroll Continue to Drive Premium Growth Forecast Change Payroll Wage Rate +4.5% Employment +2.5% +1.9% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% -1% Prof. & Business Services Trade, Transport., & Utilities Sources: Moody s Analytics and NCCI Education & Health Services Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Financial Activities Construction Manufacturing Construction Leisure & Hospitality All Other 17-1% Prof. & Business Services Trade, Transport., & Utilities Education & Health Services Financial Activities Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality All Other
18 WC Approved Changes in Bureau Premium Level By Effective Year for NCCI States Percent p Calendar Year p Preliminary Source: NAIC s Annual Statement Statutory Page 14 Bureau premium level changes reflect approved changes in advisory rates, loss costs, assigned risk rates, and rating values, as of 5/12/, relative to those previously approved in NCCI states only IN and NC are filed in cooperation with state rating bureaus Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18
19 Latest Changes in Bureau Premium Level Voluntary Market, Excludes Law-Only Filings Percent WV NC IL AZ TN AL CT NV OK MD LA IN NH NM UT AR KS VT MT TX OR MS VA KY FL IA ME NE DC MO RI CO AK ID SD GA HI SC Premium level changes are approved or filed and pending changes in advisory rates, loss costs, and rating values, as of 5/12/, as filed by the applicable rating organization, relative to those previously approved IN and NC are filed in cooperation with state rating bureaus Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19
20 WC Impact of Discounting on Premium Private Carriers NCCI States Percent p Policy Year p Preliminary Sources: NAIC s Annual Statement Statutory Page 14 and NCCI s Financial Call data NCCI benchmark level does not include a profit and contingency provision or expense constant Based on data for all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, excluding TX Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20
21 WC Impact of Discounting on Premium Private Carriers NCCI States Dividends Schedule Rating Rate/Loss Cost Departure p Policy Year p Preliminary Sources: NAIC s Annual Statement Statutory Page 14 and NCCI s Financial Call data Dividend ratios are based on calendar year statistics NCCI benchmark level does not include a profit and contingency provision or expense constant Based on data for all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, excluding TX Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21
22 WC Pricing Market Index Survey Percentage of Respondents 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 74% Reported Increase Reported No Change Reported Decrease 57% 62% Sources: The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers: Downward Trend in Commercial P/C Rates Continued in Fourth Quarter (of 2016) Commercial P/C Pricing: Continued Decreases Across Most Lines (in Fourth Quarter of 2015) Commercial P/C Pricing Lowered Slightly in Fourth Quarter of 2014 Commercial P/C Pricing Increases Slow in Fourth Quarter of 2013 Results for All Regions Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22
23 ANNUAL ISSUES SYMPOSIUM WORKERS COMPENSATION RESULTS Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
24 WC Combined Ratio Underwriting Gain Achieved Private Carriers Percent % lower p p Preliminary Source: NAIC s Annual Statement data Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Calendar Year 24
25 WC Combined Ratio Components Private Carriers Percent Dividends 1 1 Underwriting Expense Ratio Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) Ratio Loss Ratio p p Preliminary Source: NAIC s Annual Statement data Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Calendar Year 25
26 WC LAE to Loss Ratio Net Incurred LAE to Incurred Losses Private Carriers Percent p p Preliminary Source: NAIC s Annual Statement data LAE includes Defense and Cost Containment Expense plus Adjusting and Other Expense Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Calendar Year 26
27 WC Residual Market Combined Ratio NCCI-Serviced WC Residual Market Pools Percent p Policy Year p Preliminary, incomplete policy year projected to ultimate Includes Pool data and Plan expenses for pool members for all NCCI-serviced WC Residual Market Pool states, valued as of 12/31/2016 Tennessee Reinsurance Mechanism experience is not included in the combined ratios Source: NCCI s Residual Market Quarterly Results Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27
28 WC Investment Gain on Insurance Transactions Ratio to Net Earned Premium Private Carriers Percent Average ( ): 13.7% p Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Calendar Year p Preliminary Source: NAIC s Annual Statement data Investment Gain on Insurance Transactions includes Other Income 2013 adjusted to exclude a material realized gain resulting from a single company transaction that involved corporate restructuring; unadjusted value is
29 WC Pretax Operating Gain Private Carriers Percent Average ( ): 7.6% p Calendar Year p Preliminary Source: NAIC s Annual Statement data Operating Gain equals 1.00 minus (Combined Ratio less Investment Gain on Insurance Transactions and Other Income) 2013 adjusted to exclude a material realized gain resulting from a single company transaction that involved corporate restructuring; unadjusted value is 17.7 Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29
30 Cumulative Permanent Partial Indemnity Benefit Change Indices By State, OK NY CA TN FL NC MI MT AL DE DC ME MA MS NJ PA UT VA WV GA IN SD SC CT VT KS MO LA NV NH RI AR ID KY IA MD NE IL AK MN CO HI TX AZ NM WI OR Source: NCCI s Annual Statistical Bulletin Changes represent estimated impacts that could be quantified at the time of each legislative enactment or judicial decision and do not include the effects of wage inflation on weekly benefits. Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30
31 WC and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) Benefits Comparison of Weekly PPD Benefits for a Dual Recipient Before and After the SSDI Offset Combined WC plus SSDI benefit cap Offset to SSDI benefits due to the WC plus SSDI cap SSDI Benefit WC Benefit Before Offset After Offset Illustrative example of initial benefits in a standard offset state for a dual recipient who previously earned the state median wage Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 31
32 ANNUAL ISSUES SYMPOSIUM WORKERS COMPENSATION ACCIDENT YEAR RESULTS AND RESERVE ESTIMATES Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
33 WC Net Combined Ratios Calendar Year vs. Accident Year As Reported Private Carriers Percent 120 Calendar Year Accident Year p p Preliminary Source: NAIC s Annual Statement data Accident Year information is reported as of 12/31/2016 Includes dividends to policyholders Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 33
34 WC Net Combined Ratios NCCI s Accident Year Selections vs. As Reported Private Carriers Percent 120 NCCI Selections As Reported Sources: As Reported: NAIC s Annual Statement Schedule P Part 1D data as of 12/31/2016 NCCI Selections: NCCI analysis based on NAIC s Annual Statement data As Reported Loss and LAE ratios are net of tabular reserve discounts and gross of nontabular reserve discounts Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Accident Year 34
35 WC Net Loss and LAE Ratios NCCI s Accident Year Selections vs. As Reported Private Carriers Percent 100 NCCI Selections As Reported Accident Year Sources: As Reported: NAIC s Annual Statement Schedule P Part 1D data as of 12/31/2016 NCCI Selections: NCCI analysis based on NAIC s Annual Statement data As Reported Loss and LAE ratios are net of tabular reserve discounts and gross of nontabular reserve discounts Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35
36 WC Net Loss and LAE Reserve Deficiencies Private Carriers $ Billions Tabular Discount Is $4.5 Billion 21 (33% of CY Total Reserves) (4% of CY Total Reserves) Year-End Valuation Source: NCCI analysis based on NAIC s Annual Statement data Considers all reserve discounts as deficiencies Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 36
37 WC Net Loss and LAE Ratio Emergence Private Carriers Percent Accident Year Source: NAIC s Annual Statement Schedule P Part 1D data at year-end valuations As Reported Loss and LAE ratios are net of tabular reserve discounts and gross of nontabular reserve discounts Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 37
38 ANNUAL ISSUES SYMPOSIUM WORKERS COMPENSATION LOSS DRIVERS Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
39 WC Lost-Time Claim Frequency Change in Lost-Time Claims per $1M Pure Premium Private Carriers and State Funds NCCI States Percent Average Annual Change: 3.6% ( ) p Accident Year 2010 and 2011 adjusted primarily for significant changes in audit activity p Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2016 Source: NCCI s Financial Call data, developed to ultimate, premium adjusted to current wage and voluntary pure premium level, excludes high-deductible policies; based on data through 12/31/2015 Values displayed reflect the methodology underlying the most recent rate/loss cost filing Includes all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services; WV is excluded through 2011 Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 39
40 WC Lost-Time Claim Frequency Average Annual Change % -10% Source: NCCI s Financial Call data, developed to ultimate, premium adjusted to current wage and voluntary pure premium level, excludes high-deductible policies; based on data through 12/31/2015 Values displayed reflect the methodology underlying the most recent rate/loss cost filing Includes all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 40
41 Distribution of Medical Costs 11% 18% 8% 7% 38% 13% 5% Service Year 2015 Source: Data underlying NCCI s State Medical Data Reports for all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, excluding TX Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 41
42 Distribution of Physician Costs 23% 4% 4% 30% 24% 10% 3% 2% Service Year 2015 Source: Data underlying NCCI s State Medical Data Reports for all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, excluding TX Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 42
43 Prescription Drugs Changes Over Time Repackaged (%) Brand Name (%) Generic (%) 47% 58% Original Formulation (%) 86% 97% Generic equivalents now represent the majority of payments for drugs prescribed in workers compensation. Repackaged drugs represent a very small proportion of overall drug payments. Source: Data underlying NCCI s State Medical Data Reports for all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, excluding TX Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 43
44 Prescription Drug Fee Schedule Study The Estimated Impact on WC Drug Costs Varies Based on the Type of Drug Fee Schedule Adopted No Fee Schedule Cost Savings No Fee Schedule Cost Increase Low-Fee Schedule 9% High-Fee Schedule +1% Transitioning from no fee schedule to a relatively low-fee schedule significantly reduces prices paid for prescription drugs. Source: Do Drug Fee Schedules Based on AWP Have an Effect on Prices Paid for Drugs in Workers Compensation? on ncci.com Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 44 Transitioning from no fee schedule to a relatively high-fee schedule may actually increase prescription drug costs.
45 Physician Payments as a Percentage of the Medicare Reimbursement Rate 263% No Fee Schedule Countrywide: 150% 101% FL DC HI MD OK CO WV SC SD UT TN AR AZ AL KS KY MT CT NV GA NE NM VT ME RI LA IL MS OR ID VA MO IA NH AK Service Year 2015 Source: Data underlying NCCI s State Medical Data Reports Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 45
46 WC Average Medical Lost-Time Claim Severity Private Carriers and State Funds NCCI States Severity ($ Thousands) % +5% $27.7 $ p Accident Year p Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2016 Source: NCCI s Financial Call data, developed to ultimate, excludes high-deductible policies; based on data through 12/31/2015 Values displayed reflect the methodology underlying the most recent rate/loss cost filing Includes all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services; WV is excluded through 2007 Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 46
47 WC Average Medical Lost-Time Claim Severity Private Carriers and State Funds NCCI States Cumulative Change in Medical Lost-Time Claim Severity ( p): +227% Cumulative Change in the Personal Health Care Chain-Weighted Price Index ( p): +66% p Accident Year p Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2016 Sources: Severity: NCCI s Financial Call data, developed to ultimate, excludes high-deductible policies; based on data through 12/31/2015 Values displayed reflect the methodology underlying the most recent rate/loss cost filing Includes all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services; WV is excluded through 2007 Personal Health Care (PHC) Chain-Weighted Price Index: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 47
48 Changes in Medical Lost-Time Claim Severity by Component Private Carriers and State Funds NCCI States +72% +56% Change in the Medical Utilization Component +47% +27% Change in Overall Medical Severity +16% +20% +14% +2% +12% 1995 to to to 2016p p Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2016 Sources: Severity: NCCI s Financial Call data, developed to ultimate, excludes high-deductible policies; based on data through 12/31/2015 Values displayed reflect the methodology underlying the most recent rate/loss cost filing Includes all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services; WV is excluded through 2007 PHC Chain-Weighted Price Index: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 48
49 WC Average Medical Lost-Time Claim Severity Average Annual Change , Private Carriers and State Funds NCCI States +10% 10% Source: NCCI s Financial Call data, developed to ultimate, excludes high-deductible policies; based on data through 12/31/2015 Values displayed reflect the methodology underlying the most recent rate/loss cost filing Includes all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 49
50 WC Average Indemnity Claim Severity Private Carriers and State Funds NCCI States Severity ($ Thousands) % +3% $23.2 $ p Accident Year p Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2016 Source: NCCI s Financial Call data, developed to ultimate, excludes high-deductible policies; based on data through 12/31/2015 Values displayed reflect the methodology underlying the most recent rate/loss cost filing Includes all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services; WV is excluded through 2007 Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 50
51 WC Average Indemnity Claim Severity Private Carriers and State Funds NCCI States Cumulative Change in Indemnity Claim Severity ( p): +145% Cumulative Change in Wage Inflation ( p): +100% p Accident Year p Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2016 Sources: Severity: NCCI s Financial Call data, developed to ultimate, excludes high-deductible policies; based on data through 12/31/2015 Values displayed reflect the methodology underlying the most recent rate/loss cost filing Includes all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services; WV is excluded through 2007 US Average Weekly Wage: and , Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; , NCCI; 2016p, NCCI and Moody s Analytics Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 51
52 Relative Growth Rates Indemnity Severity vs. Wage Inflation Private Carriers and State Funds NCCI States +65% +33% Change in Indemnity Severity in Excess of Wage Inflation +34% +9% Change in Overall Indemnity Severity +32% +25% +7% +19% -12% 1995 to to to 2016p p Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2016 Sources: Severity: NCCI s Financial Call data, developed to ultimate, excludes high-deductible policies; based on data through 12/31/2015 Values displayed reflect the methodology underlying the most recent rate/loss cost filing Includes all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services; WV is excluded through 2007 US Average Weekly Wage: and , Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; , NCCI; 2016p, NCCI and Moody s Analytics Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 52
53 WC Average Indemnity Claim Severity Average Annual Change , Private Carriers and State Funds NCCI States +10% 10% Source: NCCI s Financial Call data, developed to ultimate, excludes high-deductible policies; based on data through 12/31/2015 Values displayed reflect the methodology underlying the most recent rate/loss cost filing Includes all states where NCCI provides ratemaking services Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 53
54 ANNUAL ISSUES SYMPOSIUM QUESTIONS AND MORE INFORMATION Resources for the State of the Line Presentation Full presentation on ncci.com State of the Line Guide on ncci.com Copyright NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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