Things Have Changed Since 1976
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- Morgan Freeman
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2 Things Have Changed Since 1976 Gas Mileage, U.S. Fleet MPG MPG Energy per Dollar of GDP SO2 Emissions, U.S mbtu ppb mbtu ppb
3 The Revolution is Very Recent Vehicle-Miles Travelled: Growing Since World War II Stagnant Since 2007 U.S. Crude Oil Production: Declining since 1970 Up by 92% since 2008 Williston Wages Per Job $73,057 North Dakota Resource Taxes $3.2 billion $32,016 $186 mil
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6 Oil Markets Deliver a Surprise The Global, National and State Economic Outlook Patrick M. Barkey, Director Bureau of Business and Economic Research University of Montana
7 National and Global Developments Best six month performance of the U.S. economy since well before the recession Evidence of stronger, more bullish small business activity Global outlook dims Declining oil prices reverberating around the world
8 Economic Performance Finally Meeting Expectations Forecasts of U.S. Real GDP Growth, Percent Percent Source: IHS, Inc.
9 U.S. Labor Market is Getting Better Thousands 1500 Quarterly Job Growth, U.S million jobs Thousands Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons, U.S
10 Taking a Tour of Global Growth, 2007 Canada 2.0% Eurozone 3.1% Russia 8.5% China 14.2% Japan 2.2% United States 1.8% Brazil 6.1% India 9.8% Real GDP Growth, Percent
11 Taking a Tour of Global Growth, 2009 Canada -2.7% Eurozone -4.5% Russia -7.8% China 9.2% Japan -5.5% United States -2.8% Brazil -0.3% India 8.5% Real GDP Growth, Percent
12 Taking a Tour of Global Growth, 2014 Canada 2.4% Eurozone 0.8% Russia 0.5% China 7.6% Japan 0.4% United States 2.2% Brazil 1.5% India 5.5% Real GDP Growth, Percent
13 U.S. Outlook Summary Self-sustaining cycle of income growth and consumer spending Stronger dollar No inflation Higher interest rates An island of growth in the global economy for how long?
14 Montana s Growth: More Balanced, but Slower Growth patterns starting to look more like ten years ago The commodity boom is over, will agriculture prices follow? Labor markets are quietly getting tighter Tourist and visitor spending growth appears healthy Bakken price point has been reached
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16 IMF Commodity Price Indices (2005 = 100) Energy 175 All 150 Non-energy Source: International Monetary Fund
17 Oilfield Investments Have Been a Big Driver of the U.S. Economy Percent Oilfield Investment Share of Nonresidential Structures Investment, U.S.
18 Investment Response to Price Shock Percent 2.00 Excluding Mining and Oil 1.00 Total Quarter Mining and Oil
19 Real Payroll Wages Growth Percent Change, 13Q2-14Q2 Richland 15.4% Gallatin 6.4% Madison 10.2% Yellowstone -1.6%
20 Montana s Recent Growth Percent Change in Real Wages and Salaries Fiscal Year
21 Total Agriculture and Fish Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information Finance Real Estate Professional Business Services Management of Companies Administrative Support Education Health Care Arts & Entertainment Accommodations & Food Other Services Public Administration Montana Growth in Real Wages, FY2013-FY2014, $ Millions
22 Where s the Growth? Total Real Wage Growth, $ million $ Millions $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 -$20 Difference between Inflation-adjusted Wages and Salaries, FY2014 vs. FY2013
23 Decomposing Oil and Gas Growth $ Millions Montana Oil and Gas Earnings by Year Support Extraction Total Drilling
24 Outlook for Key Industries 16% 7% Energy and Mining: Significant declines in investment, beginning in mid Composition of Earnings in Montana s Basic Industries,
25 Outlook for Key Industries Agriculture and Related: Coming off a tremendous financial year. 15% Composition of Earnings in Montana s Basic Industries,
26 Tracking Montana s High Tech Companies Bee Alert Technology Purity Systems, Inc. Sunburst Sensors Rivertop Renewables Visual Learning Systems Endobiologics AquilaVision TerraEchos Transynaptic Technologies GT NeuroPharma Sinapis Pharma Submittable Oracle Microbion Siafu Technology Montana Molecular Ticket River Zoot Enterprises Elation Corp. Montana Photonics LMG Security
27 Change in Nonfarm Earnings, Montana, Actual Projected '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 18
28 Questions?
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