Habib Bank (HBL) Result Review. 3Q2015 EPS Rs6.9. Key takeaways. October 21, Best Local Brokerage House
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1 FOCUS Equity Commercial Banks Habib Bank (HBL) October 21, 2015 Topline Securities (Private) Limited 508, Continental Trade Centre, 5 th Floor Block-8, Clifton, Karachi, Pakistan Tel: Fax: Q2015 EPS Rs6.9 (Above expect tations) HBL Bank (HBL) announced 3Q2015 consolidatedd earnings of Rs10.0bn (EPS Rs6.9) as against Rs7.3bn (EPS Rs5.0) in the corresponding period last year. The bank also announced third interim cash dividend of Rs3.5/share (Rs 2.25/share last year), in addition to Rs7/share announced in 1H2015. The result was well above market expectations. Key takeaways Earnings of HBL registered an increase of 38% YoY in 3Q2015, thanks to 107% YoY growth in non-interest income to Rs11.3bn mainly led by higher capital gains. The bank booked an above average capital gain of Rs5.6bn (after tax EPS impact of Rs 2.5/share) in 3Q2015 as against our estimatee of Rs2.2bn (Rs1/share) and last year 3Q2014 capital gain of Rs93mn. Capital gains booked are mainly on the sale of Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs), we believe. Net Interest Income (NII) of HBL increased by 10% YoY in 3Q2015 to Rs19.2bn and remained slightly lower than our estimate of Rs19.5bn. On the expense side, provisioning expense increased by 17% YoY to Rs1.1bn whereas non-interest expense were up 17% YoY to Rs12..7bn. On QoQ basis, earnings increased by 49% mainly due to lower effective tax rate in 3Q2015. Govt. had imposed a one-time super tax of 4% on bank s income for the tax year 2015, which led to an effective tax rate of 55% in 2Q2015 (38% in 3Q2015). Pre-tax profits were up 5% due to a 9% QoQ increase in non-interest income. NII declined by 5% QoQ. We flag 1) deterioration in Pakistan macros, 2) PIB to deposit ratio compared to peers which scenario, as key risks for HBL. HBL: Key Numbers 2014A soft credit growth numbers and 3) lower could hurt NII in declining interest rate 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F EPS Earnings Growth 36% 13% -9% 12% 17% PE at Rs Dividend Yield 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% ROE 21% 20% 16% 18% 18% PBV KATS Code Bloomberg Code Reuters Code Market Price Market Cap Free float Market Cap 1-Yr Avg. Daily Vol. (mn) Yr Avg. Daily Val. (mn) 1-Yr High/ / Low Rs235.5/169.4 Estimated free float 50% Share outstanding (mn) 1, Index weight 7.99% HBL vs KSE-100 Index 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Oct-14 Dec-14 HBL Feb-15 Apr-15 Source: KSE, Topline Research HBL HBL PA HBL.KA Rs Rs3007bn /US$2.9bn Rs150.3bn /US$1.4bn Rs137.0 /US$1.3 KSE-100 Jun-15 Aug-15 Umair Naseer AC umair.naseer@topline.com.pk Tel: Ext: 140 Best Local Brokerage House Oct-15 1 P a g e Topline Research is also available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters & Capital IQ
2 HBL Quarterly NPL Provisioning HBL Quarterly NII and NII Growth 1, (50) 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 NII NII Growth 25% 18% 11% 4% -3% -10% HBL Quarterly Non-Interest Income 12,000 10,250 4,500 8,500 3,000 6,750 5,000 HBL Quarterly Non-Interest Expense & Cost to income Ratio 14,000 Non Interest Expense Cost to income ratio 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 HBL Quarterly Capital Gains 6,000 1,500 - HBL Quarterly Non-Interest Income to Total Income 55% 40% 50% 35% 45% 40% 35% 25% 20% 2 P a g e
3 HBL: Financial Highlights 3Q2015 3Q2014 Markup interest earned 35,644 34,964 2% -3% 109, ,183 8% Markup interest expensed 16,482 17,495-6% 0% 50,709 51,749-2% Net Interest Income 19,162 17,469 10% -5% 58,456 49,434 18% NPL provisioning 1, % -3% 2,578 1,328 94% Total provisioning expense 1, % 2% 2,718 1, % Non Interest Income 11,270 5, % 9% 29,397 16,853 74% Non Interest Expense 12,655 10,848 Profit before Tax 16,686 11,116 Taxation 6,336 3,809 Profit after Tax 10,049 7,301 EPS Source: KSE, Topline Research YoY QoQ 9M2015 9M2014 YoY 17% -6% 37,264 31,873 17% 50% 5% 47,871 33,262 44% 66% -27% 20,365 11,365 79% 38% 49% 26,680 21,787 22% P a g e
4 Analyst Certification and Disclosures The research analyst(s), denoted by an AC on the cover of this report, primarily involved in the preparation of this report, certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views about all of the subject companies/securities/sectors and (2) no part of his/her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Furthermore, it is stated that the research analyst or its close relative have neither served as a director/officer in the past 3 years nor received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months. Additionally, as per regulation 8(2)(i) of the Research Analyst Regulations, 2015, we currently do not securities of the subject company aggregating more than 1% of the value of the company. have a financial interest in the Rating System Topline Securities employs three tier ratings system to rate a stock, as mentioned below, which is based upon the level of expected return for a specific stock. The rating is based on the following with time horizon of 12-months. Rating Buy Neutral Sell Expected Total Return Stock will outperform the average total return of stocks in universe Stock will perform in line with the average total return of stocks in universe Stock will underperform the average total return of stocks in universe For sector rating, Topline Securities employs three compared to sector s weight in KSE-100 Index: tier ratings system, depending upon the sector s proposed weight in the portfolio as Rating Over Weight Market Weight Under Weight Sector s Proposed Weight in Portfolio > Weight in KSE-100 Index = Weight in KSE-100 Index < Weight in KSE-100 Index Ratings are updated daily to account for the latest developments in the economy/sector/company, changes in stock prices and changes in analyst s assumptions or a combination of any of these factors. Valuation Methodology To arrive at our 12-months Target Price, Topline Securities uses different valuation methods which include: 1). Present value methodology, 2). Multiplier methodology, and 3). Asset-based methodology. Research Dissemination Policy Topline Securities endeavors to make all reasonablee efforts to disseminate research to all eligible clients in i a timely manner through either physical or electronic distribution such as , fax mail etc. Nevertheless, all clients may not receive the material at the same time. 4 P a g e
5 Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Topline Securities and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances this is to be used or considered as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained therein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. From time to time, Topline Securities and/or any of its officers or directors may, as permitted by applicable laws, have a position, or otherwise be interested in any transaction, in any securities directly or indirectly subject of this report. This report is provided only for the information of professional advisers who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this report. Investments in capital markets are subject to market risk and Topline Securities accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. In particular, the report takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of investors, who should seek further professional advice or rely upon their own judgment and acumen before making any investment. The views expressed in this report are those of Topline Research Department and do not necessarily reflect those of Topline or its directors. Topline as a firm may have business relationships, including investment banking relationships, with the companies referred to in this report. All rights reserved by Topline Securities. This report or any portion hereof may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose whatsoever. Nor can it be sent to a third party without prior consent of Topline Securities. Action could be taken for unauthorized reproduction, distribution or publication. 5 P a g e
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