Key estimate revision. Year CY14 87,383 11,148 6, CY15E 1,20,126 17,838 9,

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1 : price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We retain our positive view on EIM on the back of expected improvement in volume and margin at Royal Enfield (RE) and expected revival in VECV on the back of the CV cycle turning positive. We retain our Buy rating with a TP of based on SOTP valuation (slide 2) Volume growth at RE is expected to be ~46% from CY14 CY16 primarily on the back of 1) steep ramp-up in production at the Oragadam plant 2) significant expansion in dealer network (expected to reach 500 by CY16), majority of which would cover tier II and tier III cities. Expect Oragadam and old plant to deliver monthly production of 60,000 units by Q4CY16; expect decision on new plant by mid CY15 (50 acre purchased) EBITDA margin at RE for Q1 came in sequentially higher by 200bps at ~26% primarily on the back of expansion in gross margin (due to softening commodity costs and price increase of 2%). Although, product and business development costs is expected to increase, we expect shift of engine production to Oragadam plant in CY16 to bring in higher efficiencies and operating leverage to aid in margin improvement; expect margin of ~28% for CY16 (from 24.2% in CY14) Growth in Q1 for VECV has been driven by improvement in 16T+ truck segment. Captive supply of engines to Volvo also grew by 50% in the quarter. Going forward, expect volumes to be aided by rollout of PRO trucks, which would be scaled up in 6 to 18 months. Expect revenue CAGR of 30% from CY14-CY16; EBITDA to increase from 6.7% to 8.9% How does our 3 year Outlook change? For RE, we are extremely optimistic on a longer term horizon as the company has planned for a strong new product pipeline post CY15. We expect domestic waiting periods to ease in the next two years, however we believe this would aid in significant growth opportunity in export markets, given the strong value proposition offered by the RE brand. Expect a volume CAGR of ~30% from CY13-CY20 VECV is expected to continue to boast of the best operating performance among CV manufacturers. With the launch of the Pro series, we expect significant improvement in the domestic realization and expect strong growth in exports driven by Volvo s extensive network. Financial summary (consolidated) Year 1QCY15 Update Promoters 55.0 % Institutions 28.1 % Public 16.9 % Key estimate revision Revenues 1m 3m 12m EIM -5% 1% 143% Sensex -6% -6% 21% BSE Auto -7% -4% 38% EBITDA CY15E Adj.PAT Adj EPS (Rs.) CY16E Old New Change Old New Change Revenue 1,22,985 1,20, % 1,70,848 1,72, % EBITDA 18,737 17, % 29,764 29, % Margin (%) 15.2% 14.8% -39 bps 17.4% 17.1% -30 bps PAT 10,506 9, % 17,249 17, % PAT Margin 8.5% 8.2% -30 bps 10.1% 10.0% -14 bps EPS % % All figures in Rs. mn, except EPS, which is in Rs. Bloomberg Shares o/s Market Cap 9 May, 2015 EIM IN 27mn Rs. 428bn 52-wk High-Low Rs. 17,200-6,151 3m Avg. Daily Vol Index Rs. 1,411mn BSEMDCAP P/E(x) EV/EBITDA (x) CY13 68,098 7,132 3, CY14 87,383 11,148 6, CY15E 1,20,126 17,838 9, CY16E 1,72,779 29,576 17, MUKESH SARAF mukesh@sparkcapital.in ROHIT KRISHNA rohitkrishna@sparkcapital.in Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>), Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset Page 1

2 Quarterly Financial Results Consolidated quarterly result summary Rs. mn\period Mar-15 Mar-14 yoy % Dec-14 qoq % Revenue 25,680 19, % 22, % Raw Material 16,528 12, % 14, % Employee cost 1,853 1, % 1, % Other cost 3,640 2, % 3, % Total Expenditure 22,021 17, % 19, % EBITDA 3,660 2, % 3, % Margin % 14.3% 11.5% 272 bps 13.2% 104 bps D&A % % EBIT 2,892 1, % 2, % Other income % % Net Interest exp (inc) % % PBT 3,217 2, % 2, % Tax provision 1, % % Tax rate % 33% 30% 257 bps 29% 341 bps Minority Interest % % PAT (Reported) 1,953 1, % 1, % Shares Outstanding EPS (Reported) % % SOTP Valuation Basis CY16 PAT/ EBITDA PE EV/ABITDA (x) Holding (%) Eq Value SOTP (Rs. per share) RE P/E 14, % 442,583 16,270 VECV EV/EBITDA 8, % 61,073 2,245 18,515 RE Abridged P&L Rs. mn CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15E CY16E Volume 113, ,121 3,02,602 4,51,991 6,46,200 Revenue 10,493 17,025 30,312 47,528 74,605 EBITDA 1,454 3,137 7,336 12,353 20,866 EBITDA margin % 13.9% 18.4% 24.2% 26.0% 28.0% PBT 1,738 3,632 7,980 12,445 21,075 PAT 1,448 2,786 5,589 8,960 14,753 EPS (Rs.) Source: Spark Capital Research VECV Abridged P&L Rs. mn CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15E CY16E Volume 48,802 41,251 40,649 47,417 58,635 Revenue 53,674 51,073 57,071 72,598 98,174 EBITDA 4,036 3,995 3,812 5,485 8,711 EBITDA margin % 7.5% 7.8% 6.7% 7.6% 8.9% PBT 4,259 3,074 1,946 2,997 6,258 PAT 3,301 2,468 1,428 2,087 4,506 PAT (post minority interest) 1,795 1, ,451 EPS Source: Spark Capital Research Page 2

3 Financial Summary Abridged Financial Statements Key metrics Rs. mn CY13 CY14E CY15E CY16E CY13 CY14E CY15E CY16E Profit & Loss Growth ratios Revenues 68,098 87,383 1,20,126 1,72,779 Revenues 6.1% 28.3% 37.5% 43.8% Manufacturing & Other Expenses 60,966 76,235 1,02,288 1,43,203 EBITDA 29.9% 56.3% 60.0% 65.8% EBITDA 7,132 11,148 17,838 29,576 PAT 21.5% 56.2% 60.8% 73.8% Depreciation 1,300 2,198 3,153 3,386 Margins EBIT 5,832 8,950 14,685 26,190 EBITDA 10.5% 12.8% 14.8% 17.1% Net Interest Exp / (inc) EBIT 8.6% 10.2% 12.2% 15.2% Profit Before Tax 6,706 9,926 15,441 27,334 PAT 5.8% 7.0% 8.2% 10.0% Tax 1,452 2,909 4,395 8,075 Leverage & WC ratios Minority Interest 1, ,149 2,055 Debt to equity (x) Adj. Net Profit 3,940 6,154 9,898 17,204 Current ratio (x) Balance Sheet Debtor days (Sales) Shareholders Equity 20,554 25,159 32,608 45,569 Inventory days (COGS) Minority Interest 10,397 10,851 11,999 14,054 Creditor Days (COGS) Loan funds 2,973 1, Working Capital days SOURCES OF FUNDS 33,595 38,986 47,601 62,616 Performance & turnover ratios Net block 16,561 23,093 28,844 34,023 RoIC 14.7% 17.4% 24.3% 33.5% Investments 8,255 10,777 11,777 12,777 RoE 20.7% 26.9% 34.3% 44.0% Capital WIP 4,636 4,188 4,188 4,188 Total asset turnover (x) Current assets, loans & advances 17,088 21,212 24,962 42,755 Fixed asset turnover (x) Current liabilities & provisions 19,771 25,089 33,250 56,797 Total asset turnover (x) Net Current Assets -2,683-3,878-8,288-14,042 Valuation metrics APPLICATION OF FUNDS 33,595 38,986 47,601 62,616 Current price (Rs.) 15,670 Cash Flows Shares outstanding (mn) Cash flows from operations 7,174 10,475 17,787 26,605 Market capitalisation 4,24,500 4,23,874 4,24,500 4,24,500 Capex -7,123-9,720-8,903-8,566 Enterprise value 4,18,514 4,19,651 4,14,020 4,24,500 Cash flows from investments -7,910-10,872-9,903-9,566 EV/EBIDTA (x) Cash flows from financing ,622-1,610-2,448 Adj. Per-share earnings (Rs.) Free cashflow ,884 18,039 Price-earnings multiple (x) Cash & cash equivalents 6,826 4,806 11,080 25,671 Dividend yield (%) 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% Page 3

4 Recommendation History Eicher Motors Ltd Apr-12 1-Oct-12 1-Apr-13 1-Oct-13 1-Apr-14 1-Oct-14 1-Apr-15 Historical Report Date (Rs.) TP (Rs.) Recommendation 05/Mar/15 16,041 18,275 Buy 18/Feb/15 16,109 18,170 Buy 14/v/14 13,190 13,525 Add 12/Aug/14 9,290 10,970 Buy 12/May/14 6,460 6,320 Reduce 14/Mar/14 5,500 5,920 Add 14/Feb/14 4,809 5,600 Buy 03/Jan/14 4,980 5,590 Add 11/v/13 4,126 3,983 Reduce 12/Aug/13 3,319 3,489 Add 15/May/13 3,250 2,965 Reduce 08/Apr/13 2,657 2,658 Reduce Report Date (Rs.) TP (Rs.) Recommendation 13/Feb/13 2,625 2,636 Reduce 12/v/12 2,527 2,048 Sell 10/Aug/12 2,070 1,829 Sell 14/Jun/12 2,086 1,779 Sell 15/May/12 2,017 1,795 Sell 30/Mar/12 1,910 1,592 Sell 02/Mar/12 1,694 1,583 Reduce 14/Feb/12 1,730 1,583 Reduce Page 4

5 Disclaimer Absolute Interpretation Stock expected to provide positive returns of >15% over a 1-year horizon REDUCE ADD Stock expected to provide positive returns of >5% <15% over a 1-year horizon SELL Stock expected to provide returns of <5% -10% over a 1-year horizon Stock expected to fall >10% over a 1-year horizon Spark Disclaimer Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited (Spark Capital) and its affiliates are engaged in investment banking, investment advisory and institutional equities and infrastructure advisory services. Spark Capital is registered with SEBI as a Stock Broker and Category 1 Merchant Banker. We hereby declare that our activities were neither suspended nor we have defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom we are registered in the last five years. We have not been debarred from doing business by any Stock Exchange/SEBI or any other authorities, nor has our certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time. Spark Capital has a subsidiary Spark Investment Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in the services of providing investment advisory services and is registered with SEBI as Investment Advisor. Spark Capital has also an associate company Spark Infra Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in providing infrastructure advisory services. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. thing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this document should be construed as an advice to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject Spark Capital and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to a certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such applicable restrictions. This material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. Spark Capital makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Spark Capital, its affiliates, and the employees of Spark Capital and its affiliates may, from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through an independent analysis by Spark Capital. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Spark Capital and its affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent Spark Capital and its affiliates from doing so. Neither Spark Capital nor its affiliates or their respective directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be responsible or liable in any manner, directly or indirectly, for views or opinions expressed in this report or the contents or any errors or discrepancies herein or for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the report or the inability to use or access our service in this report or for any loss or damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including without limitation loss of revenue or profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of or reliance on this report. Page 5

6 Disclaimer (Cont d) Spark Capital and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, Spark Capital has incorporated a disclosure of interest statement in this document. This should however not be treated as endorsement of views expressed in this report: Disclosure of interest statement Analyst financial interest in the company Group/directors ownership of the subject company covered Investment banking relationship with the company covered Spark Capital s ownership/any other financial interest in the company covered Associates of Spark Capital s ownership more than 1% in the company covered Any other material conflict of interest at the time of publishing the research report Receipt of compensation by Spark Capital or its Associate Companies from the subject company covered for in the last twelve months: Managing/co-managing public offering of securities Investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services products or services other than those above in connection with research report Whether Research Analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company covered Whether the Research Analyst or Research Entity has been engaged in market making activity of the Subject Company; EIM Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst s compensations was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in the report. Additional Disclaimer for US Institutional Investors This research report prepared by Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited is distributed in the United States to US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Auerbach Grayson, LLC, a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). Auerbach Grayson accepts responsibility on the research reports and US Institutional Investors wishing to effect transaction in the securities discussed in the research material may do so through Auerbach Grayson. All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Auerbach Grayson, LLC in the US shall be borne by Auerbach Grayson, LLC. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited or Auerbach Grayson, LLC is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Auerbach Grayson, LLC and Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited are permitted to provide research material concerning investment to you under relevant legislation and regulations; Page 6

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