Cummins India Ltd Bloomberg Code: KKC IN
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- Grace Dickerson
- 5 years ago
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1 Company Update Margins Under Pressure; Domestic Recovery Underway Half-yearly revenue was flat; margins were under pressure: Cummins India revenue, EBITDA and PAT for H1FY17 reached to Rs.24,784mn, Rs.4,649mn and Rs.4,972mn which is a 1.5% growth in terms of revenue and a drop of 4.4% and 7.0% at EBITDA and PAT level respectively on YoY comparison to H1FY16. On quarterly comparison, revenue, EBITDA and PAT reached to Rs.12,500mn, Rs.1,700mn and Rs.1,969mn respectively in Q2FY17 which is 7.4% higher on revenue and lower at EBITDA and PAT level to the tune of 27.0% and 24.2% respectively on YoY comparison to Q2FY16. Margin pressure due to change in mix: Revenue mix in terms of domestic and exports has recovered to 65:35 range as domestic business grew by 7% while exports revenues dropped by about 12% during H1FY17. Margin contraction seems to be bottoming out to near lowest material margin, EBITDA margin, EBIT margin and PAT margin reached to 34.1%, 18.8%, 17.1% and 20.1% respectively which are lower by 140bps, 115bps, 118bps, 183bps respectively on a YoY comparison to H1FY16. Largely maintained FY17E guidance: Management has largely maintained its domestic business growth guidance in the range of 10%-12% whereas it expects exports business could contract by 5% during FY17E. Domestic economic recovery underway; exports to remain sluggish: Government spending remains a major demand driver for domestic business as the private corporate spending, particularly manufacturing sector spending, is expected to pickup with a lag effect. Exports to remain under pressure as the global economic recovery remains sluggish. Valuation and Outlook Investment led economic recovery, favourable product mix, cost control measures and value engineering could expand margins going forward and boards well to maintain BUY rating on Cummins India valuing the company at 33.9x FY18E EPS of Rs.29.1 for the revised target price of Rs.986 representing an upside potential of 16%. Exhibit 1: Valuation Summary Industrials-Machinery-Engine & Transmission Bloomberg Code: KKC IN India Research - Stock Broking YE Mar - Standalone (Rs. Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Adj. Net Profit EPS (Rs.) RoE (%) PE (x)* , *Represents multiples for FY14, FY15 & FY16 are based on historic market price For private circulation only. For important information about Karvy s rating system and other disclosures refer to the end of this material. Karvy Stock Broking Research is also available on Bloomberg, KRVY<GO>, Thomson Publishers & Reuters Recommendation (Rs.) Oct 28, 2016 CMP 849 Target Price 986 Previous Target Price 1054 Upside (%) 16 Stock Information Mkt Cap (Rs.mn/US$ mn) / wk High/Low (Rs.) 1103 / 746 3M Avg. daily volume (mn) 0.3 Beta (x) 0.7 Sensex/Nifty / 8638 O/S Shares(mn) Face Value (Rs.) 2.0 Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 51.0 FIIs 16.2 DIIs 19.6 Others 13.2 Stock Performance (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M Absolute (6) (4) (2) (20) Relative to Sensex (5) (3) (10) (23) Source: Bloomberg Relative Performance* Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Source: Bloomberg; *Index 100 Analyst Contact De Arul Kaarthick Mar-16 Apr-16 Cummins India May-16 arul.kaarthick@karvy.com Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 BUY Sep-16 Sensex Oct-16 1
2 Exhibit 2: Q2FY17 margins under pressure Oct 28, 2016 YE Mar - Standalone (Rs. Mn) Q2FY17 Q2FY16 YoY(%) Q1FY17 QoQ(%) H1FY17 H1FY16 YoY(%) FY16 Turnover (net) Op. Expenditure EBITDA (27.0) 2369 (28.3) (4.4) 8948 Depreciation Interest Other Income (6.5) 3486 PBT (19.4) 2864 (15.1) (5.8) Tax (net) PAT (24.2) 2423 (18.8) (7.0) 9968 EBITDA Margin (%) (640 bps) 19.3 (569 bps) (115 bps) 19.5 EBIT Margin (%) (635 bps) 17.6 (568 bps) (118 bps) 17.8 PAT Margin (%) (656 bps) 19.7 (398 bps) (183 bps) 21.7, # Standalone Q2FY17 Revenue Mix Exhibit 3: Domestic revenue mix Exhibit 4: Exports revenue mix Automotive 1.9% Distribution 31.6% Industrials 17.6% Others 10.4% Powergen 38.4% Heavy Duty 7.0% High HP 35.0% Mid range 32.0% Low HP 20.0% Spares & others 6.0%, HP- Horse Power Q2FY17 Domestic Product Mix Exhibit 5: Domestic Powergen revenue mix Exhibit 6: Domestic Industrials revenue mix Heavy Duty (320KV- 380KV) 7.2% High HP (above 500 KV) 55.1% Mid (82.5KV- 252KV) 29.0% Low HP (15KV- 62.5KV) 8.7% Mining 9.6% Railways 19.2% Construction 41.7% Marine 3.2% Misc. 3.8% Compressors 22.4%, HP-Horse Power 2
3 Key Takeaways of Conference Call: Oct 28, 2016 Annual Guidance: Cummins management has largely maintained its domestic business growth guidance in the range of 10%-12% whereas it expects exports business could contract by 5% during FY17E. Domestic sectors/industries to drive demand: As government led investment in sectors like roads and railways, data centres, hospitals, hospitality and reality are some of the major sectors driving demand. Industrials business could overtake powergen business going forward: As investment demand from key sectors could drive growth in industrials business with possibility of overtaking powergen business in the medium to long term. Powergen segment could grow in single digits during FY17E. Margins: to remain as a function of product mix with continued pursuance of optimised cost structure and value engineering initiatives to limit downside to margins. Material margins are near bottoming out. CapEx, Rental Income and dividends: Non-core capex continues in terms of property development and Cummins India is investing close to Rs.3,000mn for Tower III of India Operations Center (IOC). For H1FY17, rental income was at Rs.140mn which could be annualised and to remain consistent. Total dividend income for Q2FY17 was at Rs.310mn due to higher payout by subsidiaries apart from mutual fund dividend. 3
4 Oct 28, 2016 Standalone Financials Exhibit 7: Income Statement YE Mar (Rs. Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Revenues Growth (%) (13.4) Operating Expenses EBITDA Growth (%) (16.5) Depreciation & Amortization Other Income EBIT Interest Expenses PBT Tax PAT Growth (%) (14.6) 31.0 (4.3) (3.9) 11.7 Exhibit 8: Balance Sheet YE Mar (Rs. Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Cash & Inventories Sundry Debtors Inventory Loans & Advances Investments Gross Block Net Block CWIP Other current assets Total Assets Current Liabilities & Provisions Debt Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders Equity Reserves & Surplus Total Networth Total Networth & Liabilities
5 Oct 28, 2016 Exhibit 9: Cash Flow Statement YE Mar (Rs. Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E PBT Depreciation Interest Tax Paid (2308) (1853) (1694) (2179) (2303) Inc/dec in Net WC (1607) (1204) (507) Other Income (601) (958) (1245) (2154) (2058) Other non cash items (605) (1157) (694) (0.3) 0 Cash flow from operating activities Inc/dec in capital expenditure (4678) (3304) (4523) (1750) (1550) Inc/dec in investments Others Cash flow from investing activities 539 (563) (1780) Dividend paid (4216) (4216) (4671) (4516) (4643) Interest paid (42) (45) (9) (20) (20) Cash flow from financing activities (4258) (4261) (4679) (4536) (4663) Net change in cash (95) Exhibit 10: Key Ratios YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E EBITDA Margin (%) EBIT Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) Dividend Payout Ratio (%) Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.09) (0.14) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Exhibit 11: Valuation Parameters YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E EPS (Rs.) DPS (Rs.) BVPS (Rs.) PE (x)* P/BV (x)* EV/EBITDA (x)* EV/Sales (x)* , *Represents multiples for FY14, FY15 & FY16 are based on historic market price 5
6 Oct 28, 2016 Stock Ratings Absolute Returns Buy : > 15% Hold : 5-15% Sell : <5% Connect & Discuss More at (Toll Free) research@karvy.com Live Chat f in You Tube Disclaimer y Analyst certification: The following analyst(s), De Arul Kaarthick, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report. y Disclaimer: Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL] is registered as a research analyst with SEBI (Registration No INH ). KSBL is also a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial products. 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09 MAY 2017 Quarterly Update BUY Target Price: Rs 1,397 Demonetization,GST uncertainty impact Q4 Revenue declined 12% QoQ at Rs 874 mn due to lower traded value (down 10% QoQ). Bullion (~35% of traded
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3QFY2018 Result Update Cable January 25, 2018 KEI Industries Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY18 3QFY17 % yoy 2QFY18 % qoq Net sales 889 715 24 749 19 EBITDA 84 77 10 76 11 EBITDA margin (%) 9.5
More informationKalpataru Power. Rating: Target price: EPS: Rating CMP. Target BUY. Rs Rs.256
: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We expect KPP s revenue (standalone) to grow by 21% y-o-y in FY17E backed by an order book of Rs. 91bn (1.7x FY17E book-to-bill). Both Transmission line
More informationITC. Institutional Equities. 4QFY18 Result Update. Tracking Expectations ACCUMULATE. Sector: FMCG CMP: Rs286 Target Price: Rs290 Upside: 1%
4QFY18 Result Update Institutional Equities ITC 17 May 2018 Reuters: ITC.NS; Bloomberg: ITC IN Tracking Expectations ITC s growth in 4QFY18 was modest and in line with expectations. On the revenue side,
More informationBharat Forge Ltd RESULT UPDATE
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More informationBUY. Efforts on cost cutting paying off RAMCO CEMENTS. Target Price: Rs 435. Key highlights. Key drivers FY15 FY16E FY17E
RAMCO S BUY Target Price: Rs 435 Efforts on cost cutting paying off Q2 EBITDA at Rs 2.8 bn (up 30% YoY) was ahead of our estimates due to lower-than-expected costs. Average costs (excluding freight) declined
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More informationCummins India. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Technology leadership, cost optimization key focus October 28, 2016 Kunal Sheth kunalsheth@plindia.com +91 22 66322257 Samir Bendre samirbendre@plindia.com +91 22 66322256 Rating Accumulate Price Rs852
More informationChange EPS. (Rs) FY
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More informationNear-term pressure, but long-term outlook positive
INDUSTRY IT CMP (as on 2 Nov 2015) Rs 1,812 Target Price Rs 2,050 Nifty 8,051 Sensex 26,559 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg ECLX IN No. of Shares (mn) 30 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 55/843 6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
More informationMahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 4QFY2018 Result Update Automobile May 30, 2018 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY18 4QFY17
More informationTVS Motors. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Margins trajectory looking up ; Accumulate November 01, 2017 Saksham Kaushal sakshamkaushal@plindia.com +91 22 66322235 Poorvi Banka poorvibanka@plindia.com +91 22 66322426 Rating Accumulate Price Rs709
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: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We retain our positive outlook on WIL and believe that revival in MHCV industry, increasing content per vehicle and opportunity in exports would drive
More informationPower Mech Projects. Institutional Equities. 2QFY19 Result Update BUY. Strong Order Book Drives Robust Execution
2QFY19 Result Update Power Mech Projects 21 November 218 Reuters: POMP.BO; Bloomberg: POWM IN Strong Order Book Drives Robust Execution Power Mech Projects (PMPL) posted 2QFY19 consolidated revenues of
More informationHindustan Unilever Ltd.
. RESULT UPDATE 18 th July 2017 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 125 105 India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update - FY18 II 18th July, 2017 CMP INR 1158 Target INR 1206 MARKET
More informationBharat Forge. Exports remain subdued, outlook better. Source: Company Data; PL Research
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More informationKey estimate revision. Financial summary. Year FY14 391,088 45,198 34, FY15E 354,262 35,426 23,
: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We retain our negative stance on the stock. We expect s revenue to de-grow by 9% y-o-y on the back of muted execution (client side and clearance delays)
More informationBritannia Industries Ltd.
. RESULT UPDATE 9th August, 2017 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Please vote for us in Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2017: https://www.euromoney.com/article/b13j49qfcr6j pp/asiamoney-brokers-poll-2017-vote-now
More informationBajaj Corp Ltd Bloomberg Code: BJCOR IN
Consumer Staples-Household Products Bloomberg Code: BJCOR IN India Research - Stock Broking In Pursuit of Excellence, with Almond Drops Hair Oil Leading position in Light Hair Oil market and Well established
More informationGAIL India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `363 Target Price - 2QFY2013 Result Update Oil & Gas. Investment Period -
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More informationBUY. Robust quarter with clear growth visibility DILIP BUILDCON. Target Price: Rs 610. Financial summary (Standalone) Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Robust quarter with clear growth visibility Dilip Buildcon s (DBL) Q1FY18 sales grew 60% YoY to Rs 16.6 bn, ahead of our estimate of Rs 12.0 bn and consensus of Rs 13.6 bn. EBITDA was up 47% at Rs 3.0
More informationMusic Broadcast BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `329 `475. 2QFY2019 Result Update Media. Historical share price chart.
Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 2QFY2019 Result Update Media November 3, 2018 Music Broadcast Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY19 2QFY18 % yoy 1QFY19 % qoq
More informationBlue Star Ltd BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `703 `867. 1QFY2019 Result Update Cons. Durable. 3-year price chart.
Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 1QFY2019 Result Update Cons. Durable August 10, 2018 Blue Star Ltd Performance
More informationCMP (Rs) 775 Upside/ (Downside) (%) (1.4) Market Cap. (Rs bn) 11.4 Free Float (%) 35.0 Shares O/S (mn) 14.7
2QFY18 Result Update November 23, 2017 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 11.4 Free Float (%) 35.0 Shares O/S (mn) 14.7 High Order Book Provides Revenue Visibility (PMPL) has delivered a healthy performance in 2QFY18.
More informationCompany Overview. Financial Performance
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 CMP: 31.25 December 24, 2015 Stock Details BSE code 523878 BSE ID TOTEX Face value ( ) 10 No of shares (m) 8.1 Market
More informationBloomberg Code: FNXP IN
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Weak P&L performance, good b/s show PFC reported a disappointing P&L performance with Q3 PAT at Rs 16 bn (down 17.7% YoY; our est. Rs 18.6 bn), primarily led by sharp decline in NIM (down 35 bps QoQ at
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Increased confidence on margins July 25, 2016 Govind Agarwal govindagarwal@plindia.com +91 22 66322300 Rating BUY Price Rs540 Target Price Rs570 Implied Upside 5.6% Sensex 28,095 Nifty 8,636 (Prices as
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25 OCT 2017 Quarterly Update BUY Target Price: Rs 1,280 Strong Q2; All eyes on option volumes Revenue increased ~5% QoQ to Rs 915 mn due to higher traded value (up ~17% QoQ) led by bullion (up ~17% QoQ)
More informationHindustan Media Ventures
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More informationMRF BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `9,407 Target Price `11,343. Company Update Automobile. Key financials
Company Update Automobile February 22, 212 MRF Performance Highlights Y/E Sept. (` cr) 1QSY12 1QSY11 % chg (yoy) 4QSY11 % chg (qoq) Net sales 2,875 2,167 32.7 2,62 9.8 EBITDA 258 243 5.9 181 42.6 EBITDA
More informationAsian Paints. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Premium valuations to sustain, Accumulate October 4, 17 Amnish Aggarwal amnishaggarwal@plindia.com +91 Gaurav Jogani gauravjogani@plindia.com +91 8 Rating Accumulate Price Rs1,1 Target Price Rs1,9 Implied
More informationMaruti Suzuki India BUY. Performance Update. CMP `9,315 Target Price `10,820. 1QFY2019 Result Update Automobile. Historical share price chart
Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 1QFY2019 Result Update Automobile July 27, 2018 Maruti Suzuki India Performance
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3QFY2017 Result Update FMCG January 30, 2017 ITC Performance Highlights Quarterly result (Standalone) (` cr) 3QFY17 3QFY16 % yoy 2QFY17 %qoq Revenue 9,248 8,867 4.3 9,661 (4.3) EBITDA 3,546 3,475 2.1 3,630
More informationHOLD. Coal India Ltd Coal RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH. Uncertainty remains. GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS Research
COMPANY UPDATE Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS Research Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH Coal India Ltd Coal BSE CODE:533278 NSE CODE:
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v-17 v-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Q2FY19 Result Update Q2FY19 Result Update BUY CMP (Rs) 282 Target Price (Rs) 321
More informationMusic Broadcast BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `293 `475. 3QFY2019 Result Update Media. Stock Info Sector Market Cap (Rs cr) Media
Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 3QFY2019 Result Update Media January 31, 2019 Music Broadcast Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY19 3QFY18 % yoy
More informationBharat Forge Ltd RESULT UPDATE
RESULT UPDATE 11 th August 2017 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Please vote for us in Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2017: https://www.euromoney.com/article/b13j49qfcr6j pp/asiamoney-brokers-poll-2017-vote-now
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