ITC. Rating: Target price: EPS: Relative better visibility despite the smoke, Maintain BUY CMP. Target. Rating. Rs.389. Buy. Rs.

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1 : price: EPS: Relative better visibility despite the smoke, Maintain BUY ITC reported revenues of Rs.~87.2bn (+13% y-o-y), operating profits of Rs.32.8bn (+15% y-o-y) and PAT of Rs.~23.8bn (+16% y-o-y). Cigarette segment recorded 12.5% yoy growth, which we believe has come of ~15-16% pricing mix change and ~2-3% decline in volumes. Other FMCG business recorded ~17% yoy growth and operating profit of Rs.~104mn Vs Rs.~240mn losses in 3QFY13. Growth and margins in Hotels, Agri business and Paperboards/Packaging were broadly in line with estimates. Segment Highlights Cigarettes: Volumes declined ~2-2.5% (slightly below estimates) as the company continues to take calibrated price increase, though volumes in the premium end of portfolio continues to hold up. Much anticipated small variants (64mm filter cigarettes) continue to excel and contributes to ~8% of overall cigarette sales. Though they have cannibalized a bit of 84mm users, they remain vital in converting non-cigarette tobacco users. Non-Cigarette FMCG: ITC continues with plethora of new launches in the FMCG segment. Incessant A&P spend assisted in Aashirvaad, Sunfeast and personal care brands recording strong sales. Foods portfolio continues to be the outperformer and have assisted in booking operating profit this quarter. Engage deodorant is gaining good traction. Agri Business: Revenues were up 10% y-o-y in spite of high base as growth was robust across products especially Leaf tobacco exports. EBIT margins improved ~90bps due to favorable mix. Hotels: The Hotels segment performance continued to be subdued with ARR s and occupancies remaining subdued. ARR s and occupancies are believed to be flat y-o-y. Newly opened, ITC grand Chola, Chennai assisted in margin expansion of 180bps. Given the prevailing tough macroeconomic climate recovery in hotels business seem tough in near term. Construction of Gurgaon (expected to be completed by 1HFY15), Kolkata and Bengaluru properties on track. Paperboard & Packaging: We see that capacity addition has enabled a revenue growth of ~18% in 3QFY14. Segments margins though declined ~311bps due to steep increase in wood, coal and chemical costs, margins going forward are expected to remain steady. Valuations and View: On the backdrop of the prevailing macroeconomic challenges, we believe ITC is one among the few names that remains shielded and presents a better visibility in comparison to other FMCG peers. We value the stock on a SOTP basis on FY16E nos. (introducing) and revise our target price upwards to, ~20% upside from. Financial summary Year Revenues (Rs. mn) EBITDA (Rs. mn) Adj PAT (Rs. mn) EPS (Rs.) P/E(x) EV/EBITDA FY14E 3,34,572 1,26,449 88, FY15E 3,79,280 1,44,925 1,02, FY16E 4,34,877 1,66,776 1,18, Date Jan 20, 2014 Market Data SENSEX Nifty 6262 Bloomberg Shares o/s Market Cap ITC IN 7,935mn Stock performance (%) Rs. 2,578bn 52-wk High-Low Rs m Avg. Daily Vol Index member 3QFY14 Update Latest shareholding (%) Rs. 2,156mn BSE SENSEX Promoters 0.0 Institutions 53.6 Public m 3m 12m ITC 3% -8% 13% Sensex 0% 1% 5% BSE FMCG -2% -2% 8% Tejash Shah tejash@sparkcapital.in Gnanasundaram S gnanasundar@sparkcapital.in Find Spark research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>), Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset 1

2 Quarterly Financial results Quarterly Financial Results Rs. mn\period 31-Dec Dec-12 YoY Growth 30-Sep-13 QoQ Growth FY14E FY15E YoY Growth FY16E YoY Growth Revenues 87,269 77,107 13% 78,625 11% 3,34,572 3,79,280 13% 4,34,877 15% Raw materials 34,394 30,771 12% 29,784 15% 1,29,145 1,47,919 15% 1,71,776 16% Employee cost 4,008 3,460 16% 3,699 8% 15,951 17,546 10% 19,651 12% Other expenditure 16,024 14,293 12% 14,964 7% 63,028 68,890 9% 76,673 11% Total Operating Cost 54,426 48,524 12% 48,446 12% 2,08,123 2,34,355 13% 2,68,101 14% EBITDA 32,843 28,583 15% 30,179 9% 1,26,449 1,44,925 15% 1,66,776 15% EBITDA margins 37.6% 37.1% 57bps 38.4% -75bps 37.8% 38.2% 42bps 38.4% 14bps Depreciation 2,259 2,052 10% 2,209 2% 8,500 9,797 15% 10,562 8% Other income 3,911 3,293 19% 2,462 59% 11,500 14,000 22% 15,500 11% EBIT 34,494 29,823 16% 30,433 13% 1,29,448 1,49,129 15% 1,71,714 15% Interest % % % 600 0% PBT 34,403 29,572 16% 30,412 13% 1,28,848 1,48,529 15% 1,71,114 15% Tax 10,550 9,053 17% 9,455 12% 40,201 45,598 13% 52,532 15% Effective tax rate 30.7% 30.6% 5bps 31.1% -43bps 31.2% 30.7% -50bps 30.7% 0bps Adj PAT 23,853 20,519 16% 20,957 14% 88,648 1,02,930 16% 1,18,582 15% Adj PAT margin 27.3% 26.6% 72bps 26.7% 68bps 26.5% 27.1% 64bps 27.3% 13bps EPS (Rs. ) % % % % 2

3 Business Overview Key estimate revision Segmental performance Rs mn FY15E FY16E Old New Change Old New Change Revenue (Rs. Bn) EBIT (Rs. Bn) EBIT Margin 3QFY14 3QFY13 YoY 3QFY143QFY13 YoY 3QFY143QFY13 YoY Revenue 3,82,967 3,79,280-1% 4,34,877 EBITDA 1,46,509 1,44,925-1% 1,66,776 EBITDA Margin (%) 38.3% 38.2% -5bps 38.4% PAT 1,03,529 1,02,930-1% 1,18,582 PAT Margin 27.0% 27.1% 10bps 27.3% EPS % 14.9 All figures in Rs. mn, except EPS, which is in Rs. Cigarette % % 64.4% 61.1% 338bps Non Cig FMCG % na 0.5% -1.3% 184bps Hotels % % 19.7% 17.9% 179bps Agri Business Paper & Packaging % % 11.5% 10.6% 91bps % % 18.4% 21.5% -311bps Source: Company, Spark Research Historical traded 1 Yr forward PE range P/E Multiple range No. of days traded Source: Bloomberg, Spark Research % of no. of days Cumulative traded no. of days %of Cumulative no. of days under 15x 8 0% 8 0% 15-19x % % 19-23x % % 23-27x % % 27-31x % % 31-35x 2 0% % Total % Sum of the parts (on FY16E financials) Segment Valuation Methodology Multiple EV (Rs. Mn) Cigarettes EV/ EBIT Non Cigarette FMCG EV/ Sales Hotels EV/ EBIT Paperboards, Paper & Packaging EV/ EBIT Agri Business EV/ EBIT Source: Company, Spark Research Total EV Add: Net Cash M Cap No of shares (Mn) 7936 Price per share (Rs.) 389 3

4 Financial Summary Abridged Financial Statements Rs Mn FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Profit & Loss Growth ratios (%) Revenues 2,99,013 3,34,572 3,79,280 4,34,877 Sales 19% 12% 13% 15% EBITDA 1,06,275 1,26,449 1,44,925 1,66,776 EBITDA 20% 19% 15% 15% Depreciation 7,956 8,500 9,797 10,562 Adjusted Net Profit 20% 19% 16% 15% EBIT 98,320 1,17,948 1,35,129 1,56,214 Margin ratios (%) Other Income 9,387 11,500 14,000 15,500 EBITDA 35.5% 37.8% 38.2% 38.4% Interest EBIT 32.9% 35.3% 35.6% 35.9% PBT 1,06,842 1,28,848 1,48,529 1,71,114 Adjusted Net Profit 24.8% 26.5% 27.1% 27.3% Reported Net Profit 74,184 88,648 1,02,930 1,18,582 Performance ratios Adjusted Net Profit 74,184 88,648 1,02,930 1,18,582 RoE (%) 36.1% 36.4% 35.9% 35.4% Balance Sheet RoCE (%) 34.5% 34.8% 34.5% 34.2% Shareholders Equity 7,902 7,902 7,902 7,902 Fixed Assets Turnover (x) Minority Interest 2,14,977 2,55,818 3,01,703 3,52,846 Financial stability ratios Deferred Tax 12,068 12,068 12,068 12,068 Net Debt to Equity (x) Total debt Working capital days Total Networth & Liabilities 2,35,611 2,76,452 3,22,337 3,73,480 Debtor days Net fixed assets 1,12,093 1,18,743 1,23,946 1,28,384 Loans and Advances CWIP 14,878 15,000 15,000 15,000 Inventory days Investments 70,603 70,603 1,00,603 1,30,603 Creditor days Current assets 1,42,600 1,96,811 2,19,252 2,46,378 Other current liabilities Current liabilities 1,04,564 1,24,705 1,36,463 1,46,885 Net Working capital days Net current assets 38,037 72,106 82,789 99,493 Valuation metrics Misc exp not w/off Market Cap (Rs.mn) Total Assets 2,35,611 2,76,452 3,22,337 3,73,480 Diluted Shares (mn) Cash Flows Adjusted EPS (Rs.) Cash flows from Operations 67,099 98,510 1,10,142 1,21,583 P/E (x) Cash flows from Investing -35,808-3,622-45,000-45,000 Dividend Yield (%) Cash flows from Financing -32,477-48,407-57,645-68,040 EV to Sales (x) Free cash flow to Firm EV/ EBITDA (x) Free cash flow to Equity EV/ Operating cash flow (x)

5 Absolute Interpretation Recommendation History Add Reduce Sell Stock expected to provide positive returns of >15% over a 1-year horizon Stock expected to provide positive returns of >5% <15% over a 1-year horizon Stock expected to provide returns of <5% -10% over a 1-year horizon Stock expected to fall >10% over a 1-year horizon Date price 19-Dec Oct Sep May Add 28-Feb Spark Disclaimer Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited (Spark Capital) and its affiliates are engaged in investment banking, investment advisory and institutional equities. Spark Capital is registered with SEBI as a Stock Broker and Category 1 Merchant Banker. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this document should be construed as an advice to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject Spark Capital and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to a certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such applicable restrictions. This material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. Spark Capital makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Spark Capital, its affiliates, and the employees of Spark Capital and its affiliates may, from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through an independent analysis by Spark Capital. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Spark Capital and its affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent Spark Capital and its affiliates from doing so. Neither Spark Capital nor its affiliates or their respective directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be responsible or liable in any manner, directly or indirectly, for views or opinions expressed in this report or the contents or any errors or discrepancies herein or for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the report or the inability to use or access our service in this report or for any loss or damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including without limitation loss of revenue or profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of or reliance on this report. Spark Capital and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, Spark Capital has incorporated a disclosure of interest statement in this document. This should however not be treated as endorsement of views expressed in this report:

6 Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst s compensations was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in the report. Additional Disclaimer for US Institutional Investors This research report prepared by Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited is distributed in the United States to US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Decker & Co, LLC, a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). Decker & Co accepts responsibility on the research reports and US Institutional Investors wishing to effect transaction in the securities discussed in the research material may do so through Decker & Co. All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Decker & Co, LLC in the US shall be borne by Decker & Co, LLC. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited or Decker & Co, LLC is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Decker & Co, LLC and Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited are permitted to provide research material concerning investment to you under relevant legislation and regulations; Disclosure of interest statement Analyst ownership of the stock Group/directors ownership of the stock Broking relationship with the company covered Investment banking relationship with the company covered Yes/No No Yes No No

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