Buy. Morning Call. Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL) IFC Capital Injection; EPS Accretive; Revised Earnings, BUY. November 10, 2014

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1 Morning Call November 10, 2014 Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL) Banks IFC Capital Injection; EPS Accretive; Revised Earnings, BUY Buy Target Price 38.3 Last Closing Upside 22.3% KSE Code Bloomberg Code Market Cap (US$ m) Market Cap (PKR m) Outstanding Shares (m) BAFL BAFL PA Free Float 50% 12M Avg. Daily Turnover M High/Low (PKR) Major Shareholders Individuals Directors CY13A CY14E CY15F Total Equity (PKRbn) Total Assets (PKRbn) Net Profit (PKRbn) ROE (%) 15.1% 15.1% 15.2% EPS (PKR) P/E (x) P/B (x) DPS (PKR) Div Yield (%) 6.4% 6.4% 8.0% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Analyst Saad Khan Shares Financials Stock Performance KSE100 BAFL ,242 1,349 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Target Price Upgrade to PKR 38.3/Share, Offering 21% We have upgraded our Dec-15 based target price for Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL) to 38.3/share, offering 21% from last closing of PKR 31.6/share. a) Strong earnings growth momentum, b) quality assets, and c) strong sustainable return ratios, supports our rich valuations. In addition, proposed capital injection by IFC will strengthen bank s balance sheet, improve capital ratios and is EPS-accretive. Incremental Capital Injection Accreting EPS We estimate incremental Capital injection by IFC will forth mostly help the bank position itself for stricter CAR limits ahead. Secondly, higher paid-up capital will dilute EPS. However, the additional capital is albeit EPS accretive, considering the bank s places larger portion of the additional capital acquire in PIB (@ 12%+ yields) and some in extending loans. This means, BAFL can easily sustain an average forward earnings growth of +17% over the period FY14-17F. Although the capital would put a drag on bank s ROE (currently at +16%). But accreting EPS will allow the bank to converge its post-dilution ROE to its pre-dilution ROE by no longer than CY18F, we estimate. In addition the positive qualitative merits of IFC being now a part of BAFL equity should support premium valuations metrics for the Bank. Up scaling Our Earnings Estimates We upgrade our earnings estimate for the Bank, factoring in the additional capital of PKR 5.7bn. ROAs should peak at 0.9% by CY17F pushing up the key ROE to +19% in the stated period. Healthy Deposit Growth And Stronger Capital Base Could Easily Allow the Bank To Leverage Its Book We estimate a +14%YoY deposit growth should allow the bank to accelerate its growth in earning asset, without compromising asset quality. We estimate the bank could easily push and sustain its earning yield above +9.5% vs. +8.9% in CY13, chiefly led by bank s aggressive exposure in Pakistan Investment bond (PIB) and above industry growth in advances ( +14%YoY vs. industry 11%YoY). On the other hand, the key NIM driver Cost of Deposit, is expected to remain neutral at 5.1/5.0% in CY14/CY15F, given a decent ~70% CASA. Steady OPEX, sizeable decline in Provisions to support profitability Nevertheless, OPEX remains high at 66%. Though this was primarily driven by bank s aggressive branch expansion (+100branches added during the last year), but cost control measures and improvement in this regard is yet to be seen. Sizable reduction in provisions is expected, on diminution in value of equity investments (Warid) and slowdown in NPL accretion will lead to even better asset risk metrics (infection ratio +6.5%, lowest amongst the peers, coverage ratio +70%), supporting the bottom-line. Valuations and Recommendation We have used COE of 15.7%, with a sustainable growth of +7.4 using a targeted ROE of +19.1%. Our justified price-to-book for the bank comes at 1.4x, implying a target price of PKR 38.3/share. The scrip is currently trading at CY15F P/B of 1.13x and P/E of 7.8x. We recommend a Buy on the scrip. Moreover, we have increased our dividend expectations for the bank to PKR 2.5/share (dy of 7.9%) 1

2 Capital Injection Bank Al-Falah Limited Earlier the International Financial Corporation (IFC) announced to inject capital into the Bank, by total of 15% (option to for another 5% addition by Dec-15) of paid-up capital or 202mn at PKR 28/share. BAFL in its recently held analyst briefing mentioned it is expecting to receive the capital before Dec-14 ending. We estimate incremental Capital injection by IFC will forth mostly help the bank position itself for stricter CAR limits ahead. Secondly, higher paid-up capital will dilute EPS. However, the additional capital is albeit EPS accretive, meaning the bank can easily sustain an average forward earnings growth of +17% over the period FY14-17F. The drag on ROE from additional capital injection would likely converge by CY18F, to its pre-dilution ROE, we estimate. In addition the positive qualitative merits of IFC being now a part of BAFL equity should support premium valuations metrics for the Bank. Better Capital base The move will allow the bank to position itself safely for stricter CAR limits ahead; and infuse earning assets to generate better profitability. By the way of it, the fresh capital will dilute EPS and should hurt bank s ROEs in short-term. While incremental capital which is EPS accretive should allow bank s ROE to recover to +19% by CY17F and sustain average EPS growth of ~18% in FY14-17F. Exhibit: Impact on Capital Standards Shareholders Capital 13,492 13,492 13,492 15,515 15,515 15,515 MCR - Shortfall - - (508) CE (T1) 32,827 36,356 40,461 35,559 38,481 41,877 Liquidity Ratio 8.7% 8.6% 8.7% 9.5% 9.2% 9.0% SC (T2) 10,929 12,178 13,588 10,929 12,178 13,588 Total Regulatory Capital 43,756 48,534 54,049 46,488 50,659 55,465 RWA 376, , , , , ,067 CAR 11.64% 11.54% 11.67% 12.36% 12.05% 11.98% CAR Requirement - under Basel % 10.65% 11.28% 10.25% 10.65% 11.28% We estimate new capital will be utilise to accumulate PIBs, while loan sheet expansion should remain restricted, Bank s CAR is currently operating thinly above the regulatory requirement of Basel III at 11% by Sep-14. While cap limits on tier 2 and relatively expensive sub-ordinate debt, was causing slight hindrance for the bank. Henceforth, the current capital injection solves nearly all of these problems. Basel 3 specifies a floor of 7.5% for tier 1 capital requirement (including the ADT1), which pre-injection of capital was keeping dividend pay-out rather tricky. In that context, the post-injection of capital, CET1 of 8.6% isn t as high a cushion as well, which could lead to BAFL increasing its pay-out ratio. 2

3 Exhibit: Impact on Key Financials T h e EPS BVPS DPS B V The BV accretion is quite strong with a +21% uptick for the FY15F. This drives a 13% CAGR in BVPS over FY13-16F, compared to 10% CAGR pre-injection same period. This sustained growth in BAFL BV should support premium valuations for the bank. Sustainable ROE will now be restricted to +19% vs. 22% pre-injection, almost doubled when compared to past 5Yr historic ROE average of +11%. Exhibit: Impact on Key Valuation Parameters P/E x P/B x ROE 16.4% 18.2% 19.1% 16.0% 17.4% 18.6% Exhibit: ROE should converge to pre-dilution by CY18 22% RoE Pre-Capital Injection RoE Post-Capital Injection 20% 19% 20% 18% 16% 14% 15% 16% 15% 16% 15% 15% 17% 18% 15.2% 16.7% 18.9% 17.9% 12% CY11A CY12A CY13A CY14E CY15F CY16F CY17F CY18F Source: Company Financial, AHL Research 3

4 Financials We estimate bank s earnings to top PKR 4.1 / 4.9 share in CY15/16F from PKR 3.5/share in CY14E. In addition, improved capital base should allow the bank to increase pay-out ratio to 65%+, translating into a dividend of PKR 2.5 / 3.0 shares in CY15 / 16F, respectively. Bank s interest income is estimated to expand by +14% in CY15F led by a) modest credit growth, b) investment in PIBs, and c) easing of Islamic investment liquidity constraints due to the introduction of Islamic OMO (average yield based on t-bills). While Cost of Deposit, is expected to remain neutral at 5.0% in CY15/CY16F, given a decent ~70% CASA. This should drive bank s NIM to 3.8 / 3.9% in CY15 / CY16F. Asset quality will remain accommodative despite loan expansion. 4

5 Key financials Bank Al-Falah Limited Recommendation BUY Target Price (dec2015) 38.3 Income Statement (PKRmn) CY13A CY14E CY15F CY16F Per Share CY13A CY14E CY15F CY16F Interest Income 16,895 20,920 24,192 27,836 Share outstanding (mn) 1,349 1,552 1,552 1,552 Non-Interest Income 8,279 8,600 8,708 8,945 Profit Diluted Operating expenses 17,313 20,834 22,708 24,759 Earnings Growth (%) Provisions 1, ,023 Dividend Pre-tax Profits 6,807 7,776 9,275 11,000 BVPS Taxation 2,131 2,299 2,871 3,424 Valuation (x) CY13A CY14E CY15F CY16F Post-Tax Profits 4,676 5,478 6,404 7,576 Mkt Cap. / PPOP Balance Sheet (PKRbn) CY13A CY14E CY15F CY16F PBV Paid up Capital P/ E Total Equity Dividend Yield (%) Deposits Asset Utilisation (%) CY13A CY14E CY15F CY16F Net Advances ROA Net Investments ROE Total Assets Management Efficiency CY13A CY14E CY15F CY16F Asset Quality CY13A CY14E CY15F CY16F OPEX / Assets (%) Infection Ratio Cost to income ratio (%) Coverage Ratio Margins (%) CY13A CY14E CY15F CY16F NPL (PKRbn) NIM Gross ADR CASA Source: Company Accounts, AHL Research 5

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