NC-20 Economy 2015 North Carolina Coastal Conference

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1 -20 Economy 2015 North Carolina Coastal Conference April 14, 2015 William W. (Woody) Hall, Jr. Professor of Economics and Senior Economist H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services Cameron School of Business The University of North Carolina Wilmington

2 20 Counties

3 2013 Population 0 50, , , , ,000 Source:

4 2013 Median Household Income US US $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Source:

5 2012 Per Capita Income US US $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 Source:

6 2013 Percent of Population in Poverty US US 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source:

7 2014 Average Monthly Unemployment Rates 20 US US 20 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Source:

8 2014 Per Capita Retail Sales $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Source: Department of Revenue.

9 Retail Sales Seasonal Indexes % 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: Department of Revenue; H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services, Cameron School of Business, U Wilmington.

10 Home Foreclosures Poly. (2014) Source: Office of Administrative Courts.

Taxable Real Estate FY 2013 14 ($ Millions) $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000

11 Taxable Real Estate FY ($ Millions) $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30, pdf.

12 2014 Per Capita Taxable Real Estate $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 Source: Department of Revenue.

13 MSA Real Per Capita GDP Growth Rates Virginia Beach Norfolk Newport News, VA Wilmington, Jacksonville, Myrtle Beach Conway North Myrtle Beach SC % 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Source:

14 Take Aways Population More than half of the estimated population is in,, and Counties. Income Median household income is below that of the state and nation in most 20 counties. Median household income is highest in the northern and southern counties. Income/capita is below that of the state and nation in most 20 counties. Income/capita is highest in the northern and southern counties.

15 Take Aways Cont. Poverty The incidence of poverty in 20 counties is higher than the same in the state and nation. The incidence of poverty is lowest in the northern and southern counties. Unemployment rate The average monthly unemployment rate over 2014 was higher than the same for the state and nation for most 20 counties. The unemployment rate is lowest in the northern and southern counties.

16 Take Aways Cont. Retail sales Retail sales are more volatile over the course of a year in 20 counties than they are statewide. They are most volatile in County and least volatile in County. Home foreclosures Home foreclosures declined in all but two 20 counties between 2010 and 2014.

17 Take Aways Cont. Taxable real estate (FY ),, and Counties account for one half of the value of taxable real estate. Real GDP/capita growth over Strongest growth in Jacksonville (0.4% annual compound growth rate) Weakest growth in Myrtle Beach Conway North Myrtle Beach SC ( 1.6% annual compound growth rate)

Current Economic Conditions and the Outlook for the Future

Current Economic Conditions and the Outlook for the Future Sales Marketing Council Cape Fear Home Builders Association April 16, 2014 William W. (Woody) Hall, Jr. Professor of Economics and Senior Economist