State and Local Economic Conditions

Transcription

1 State and Local Economic Conditions Adult Scholars March 4, 2013 William W. (Woody) Hall, Jr. Professor of Economics Department of Economics and Finance and Senior Economist H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services Cameron School of Business The University of North Carolina Wilmington

2 Web Slides

3 Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rates 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% (F) 2014(F) Fayetteville MSA Jacksonville MSA Wilmington MSA NC US Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U. S. Department of Commerce; Economics Group, Wells Fargo Securities, Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary, February 22, 2013; Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast, December 11, 2012; Ravija Badarinathi and William W. Hall, Jr., for the H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services, Cameron School Business, UNC Wilmington.

4 Unemployment Rates 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Brunswick County New Hanover County Pender County NC US 0% Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics, US Department of Labor.

5 Unemployment Rates 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Brunswick County New Hanover County Pender County NC US 2% 0% 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics, US Department of Labor.

6 Unemployment Rates (Seasonally Adjusted) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Wilmington MSA NC US 2% 0% Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor.

7 Wilmington MSA Employment Spider 125% Chart (Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender Counties) 120% 115% 110% % of End -of- Recession Level 105% 100% 95% July 1990/March 1991 April 2001/December 2001 January 2008/June % 85% 80% Quarters Before and After End of Recession Source: Employment Security Commission of NC; H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services, Cameron School of Business, UNC Wilmington.

8 Wilmington MSA 3Q2012 Employment NAICS Sector and Wages % of Total Employment % Change from 3Q2011 % Change from 3Q2007 Average Weekly Wage Wage ($) % of MSA All-Sector Average Health Care & Social Assistance Retail Trade Accommodation & Food Services Local Government Educational Services Public Administration Professional & Technical Services , Manufacturing , Administrative & Waste Services Construction All Sectors Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce.

9 Retail Sales Growth Rates 20% 15% 10% 5% Brunswick County New Hanover County 0% -5% Year Ending November 2011 Year Ending November 2012 Pender County NC -10% -15% Source: NC Department of Revenue.

10 Retail Sales Growth Rates (Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter) 20% 15% 10% 5% Brunswick County New Hanover County Pender County NC 0% 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12-5% Source: NC Department of Revenue.

11 Wilmington International Airport Air Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% Year Ending Jan 2012 Year Ending Jan 2013 Boardings Deboardings Source: Wilmington International Airport.

12 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Wilmington International Airport Air Passenger Traffic Growth Rates (Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter) 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 Source: Wilmington International Airport.

13 Port of Wilmington Container Tonnage Growth Rates 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Year Ending Jan 2012 Year Ending Jan 2013 Source: North Carolina State Ports Authority.

14 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Port of Wilmington Container Tonnage Growth Rates (Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter) 0% -5% 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12-10% -15% Source: North Carolina State Ports Authority.

15 Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes (5-Month Centered Moving Average) WRAR Wilmington Regional Association of Realtors (WRAR) Brunswick County Association of Realtors (BCAR) Source: NC Association of Realtors. BCAR

16 Average Quarterly Sales Prices of Existing Single-Family Homes $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 WRAR BCAR $50,000 $ Source: NC Association of Realtors.

17 Average Annual Sales Prices of Existing Single-Family Homes $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 WRAR BCAR $50,000 $0 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 Source: NC Association of Realtors.

18 Residential Foreclosures Brunswick County New Hanover County Pender County North Carolina , ,939 % Change ,642 1, ,249 % Change ,693 1, ,296 % Change ,458 1, ,218 % Change ,173 1, ,749 % Change Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts.

19 Special Thanks

20 Quarterly Barometer

21 North Carolina s Southeast