Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators. April 2014

Transcription

1 Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators April 214 Regional Economic Research Institute Lutgert College Of Business Phone Florida Gulf Coast University 151 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL

2 Table of Contents Introduction: Regional and National Background... 3 Airport Passenger Activity... 7 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity... 7 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity... 8 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity... 8 Tourist Tax Revenues... 9 Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties... 9 Chart 5: Lee County Tourist Tax Revenues... 1 Chart 6: Collier County Tourist Tax Revenues... 1 Chart 7: Charlotte County Tourist Tax Revenues Single-Family Building Permits Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County Chart 9: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County Chart 1: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County Taxable Sales Chart 11: Taxable Sales for the Coastal Counties Chart 12: Taxable Sales for the Inland Counties Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Chart 13: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 14: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 15: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 16: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 17: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County Chart 2: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County... 2 Consumer Confidence Index... 2 Chart 21: Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Price Index Chart 22: CPI Annual Percentage Change Chart 23: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Population Chart 24: Coastal Counties Population Growth 199 to Chart 25: Inland Counties Population Growth 199 to Chart 26: Population Projections by County

3 Contact Information: Dr. Gary Jackson, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Dr. Ron Coccari, Staff Economist, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support Phone: Introduction: Regional and National Background The nation is continuing its economic recovery and Southwest Florida has benefited from a strong winter season. The winter storms (Polar Vortex) have had a negative short-term impact on the national economy but highlighted the mild winters in Southwest Florida. Taxable sales in the region were up eight percent ($141.7 million) in January 214 over January 213. Total tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties increased by 16 percent from February 213 to February 214. Passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports was 1,21,888 passengers in February 214, up seven percent over February 213. Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates in March 214 showed noticeable improvement over the corresponding month of the prior year in all counties. The Florida unemployment rate is 6.3 percent lower than the national unemployment rate of 6.7 percent. The national seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 7.5 percent in March 213 to 6.7 percent in March 214. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or longer) is 3.7 million or 35.8 percent of all unemployed. County employment, labor force, and unemployment information is available beginning on page 15. As reported last month, real GDP growth in the U.S. was 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 213 according to the third revised estimate. The real GDP growth was 4.1 percent for the third quarter of 213, compared to 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 213. Real personal consumption expenditure growth for the fourth quarter was 3.3 percent, compared to 2. percent for the third quarter. The March Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey showed that national nonfarm payroll employment increased by 192, for the month, approximately the same as the revised increase of 197, in February. The February employment increases included 57, in professional and business services, 34, in education and health services, 29, in leisure and hospitality, 21,3 in retail trade, 19, in construction, 7,9 in transportation and warehousing, 7,1 in wholesale trade, 6, in other services, 2, in information, 1, in financial activities In contrast, manufacturing was down by 1, and government showed no change. The national consumer price index increased by 1.5 percent from March 213 to March 214. The shelter index (rental equivalence measure for homeowner costs) has risen 2.7 percent over the last 12 months. This is the largest 12-month increase since the period ending March 28. Medical care services increased 2.4 percent, and energy prices increased by.4 percent. Core inflation (all items less 3

4 food and energy) increased by 1.7 percent. National housing prices increased 12.9 percent for the 2- city composite S & P Case-Shiller Home price index in the 12 months ended February 214. The latest statement of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) was issued on March 19 th. As noted last month, its key points included the following: There is sufficient underlying strength in the economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions; In light of the progress toward maximum employment, it was desired to make a further measured reduction in the pace of asset purchases; Accordingly, the Committee announced a further reduction in the pace of its asset purchases, Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $3 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term treasury securities at a pace of $3 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month; Asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee s outlook for the labor market and inflation, as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases; To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for April 29-3, 214. The FOMC released its latest forecast for real GDP and the unemployment rate on March 19, 214, which is shown on the following "box and whiskers" charts. The red boxes are the central tendency forecast and the full range of uncertainty is reflected in the whiskers, or vertical lines. The March forecast was similar to the December forecast with a slightly lower range of forecast GDP growth and a lower range of forecasts for unemployment rates. The GDP chart shows that recovery started in 29, but it is expected to be couple more years before the economy returns to a more normal long-run trend ( LR ). For 214, the overall projected range is 2.1 to 3. percent with a central tendency range of 2.8 to 3. percent. For 215, the overall projected range is 2.2 to 3.5 percent with a central tendency range of 3. to 3.2 percent. For 216, the overall projected range is 2.2 to 3.4 percent with a central tendency range of 2.5 to 3. percent. The long-run trend for Real GDP has a range of 1.8 to 2.4 percent growth with a central tendency range of 2.2 to 2.3 percent. Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next year. 4

5 Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, March 19, 214. As shown in the chart below, the 213 national unemployment rate was high at 7. percent but an improvement over the 212 rate of 7.8 percent. For 214, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 6. to 6.5 percent with a central tendency range of 6.1 to 6.3 percent. For 215, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 5.4 to 5.9 percent with a central tendency range of 5.6 to 5.9 percent. For 216, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 5.1 to 5.8 percent with a central tendency range of 5.2 to 5.6 percent. Long-run unemployment is expected to be in a range of 5.2 to 6. percent with a central tendency of 5.2 to 5.6 percent. The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year. 5

6 Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, March 19, 214. Congress passed a two-year budget agreement but issues surrounding the need to balance the long-run Federal budget remain and state budgets are improving with the economy. There remains uncertainty over the costs and implementation of the new health care law. In addition, Congress agreed to suspend the limit on federal borrowing (debt ceiling) for another year. RERI extends its sincere thanks to all the individuals and organizations that have helped to bring together the regional information for this report. These include the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Collier and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, the REALTORS of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices. 6

7 Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. Activity for the three Southwest Florida airports climbed to 1,21,888 passengers in February 214, an increase of seven percent over February 213. Chart 1 shows SW Florida International Airport passenger activity of 862,899 in February 214, the highest February on record, and four percent over February 213. Sarasota Bradenton passenger activity amounted to 12,988 passengers in February 214, five percent below February 213 but four percent above January 214, as shown in Chart 2. Punta Gorda reported passenger activity of 56,1 in February 214, up 167 percent over February 213, as shown in Chart 3. 1,2 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity SW Florida International Airport (RSW) Passenger Traffic Trend 1,1 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 7

8 Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 225 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity (Sarasota Bradenton Int'l Airport (SRQ) Passenger Traffic Trend Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 6 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity Punta Gorda Airport (PGD) Passenger Traffic Trend Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 8

9 Tourst Tax Revenue - Millions Tourist Tax Revenues Tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties are shown in Charts 4 through 7, based on month of occupancy. Beginning with last month s report, tourist taxes are shown on a seasonally-adjusted basis, in order to better depict underlying trends. Total tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties of Lee, Collier, and Charlotte are shown in Chart 4 for five years plus the current year to date; while the individual county charts focus on the most recent 13 months. For February 214, total tourism tax revenues showed a 16-percent increase over February 213, continuing the strong trend seen throughout 213. Lee County seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues amounted to $2,739,254 in February 214, an increase of 15 percent over February 213, as shown in Chart 5. Collier County s February 214 tourist tax revenues grew to $1,49,879, a 16-percent improvement over February 213, as shown in Chart 6. Charlotte County had seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for February 214 of $23,26, up 2 percent over February 213, as shown in Chart 7. Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties Tourist Tax Revenue 29 to Present: 3 Coastal Counties Total Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 9

10 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Tourist Tax Revenue - Millions Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Tourist Tax Revenue - Millions 3. Chart 5: Lee County Tourist Tax Revenues Seasonally Adjusted Tourist Tax Revenue - Lee County Data Seasonally Adjusted. Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 1.8 Chart 6: Collier County Tourist Tax Revenues Seasonally Adjusted Tourist Tax Revenue - Collier County Data Seasonally Adjusted.2. Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 1

11 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Tourist Tax Revenue - Millions.4 Chart 7: Charlotte County Tourist Tax Revenues Seasonally Adjusted Tourist Tax Revenue - Charlotte County Data Seasonally Adjusted.1. Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports Single-Family Building Permits Lee County issued 245 permits in March 214, up 1 percent from March 213, as shown in Chart 8. Collier County data for March was not available as this report was published; Chart 9 shows results through February 214. Charlotte County issued 43 permits in March 214, up from 29 issued in March 213, as shown in Chart 1. Hendry County has issued two permits through March

12 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av Mar 213 Apr 213 May 213 Jun 213 Jul 213 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Permits Issued (Logarithmic Scale) Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 1 Permits Linear Trend 1 1 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits. Chart 9: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. 12

13 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av Mar 213 Apr 213 May 213 Jun 213 Jul 213 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Permits Issued Chart 1: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County 25 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend Permits Linear Trend 5 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending, an important component of the regional economy. The following charts show the latest month of merchants collections, one month earlier than the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. The five reporting counties reported total taxable sales of $1.99 billion, an 8-percent gain ($141.7 million) for January 214 compared to January 213. Taxable sales for the region were six-percent lower than the prior month of December 213. Taxable sales for the coastal counties are shown in Chart 11. Lee County taxable sales rose to $1,51.4 million for January 214, a seven-percent increase over January 213. Collier County reported taxable sales of $71.7 million in January 214, up nine percent over January 213. Charlotte County s taxable sales of $196.7 million in January 214 were five-percent higher than January 213. Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties continue to show strongly positive year-over-year comparisons for every month over the past two years. Taxable sales for Hendry and Glades Counties are shown in Chart 12. Hendry s taxable sales of $26.6 million in January 214 were 11 percent above the January 213 figure. Glades County reported January 214 taxable sales of $2.7 million, a drop of six percent from January

14 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Taxable Sales - $ Millions Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Taxable Sales - $ Millions 1,4 Chart 11: Taxable Sales for the Coastal Counties Coastal County Taxable Sales 24 to Present Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months' Data 1,2 1, , Lee Collier Monthly Avg Most recent months 197 Charlotte Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 4 Chart 12: Taxable Sales for the Inland Counties Inland County Taxable Sales 24 to Present Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months' Data Hendry Monthly Avg Most recent 13 months 5 Glades Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 14

15 Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 13 through 17 show total persons employed and unemployed, as well as the unemployment rate for each county from January 25 to March 214, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Unemployment rates above five or six percent generally reflect cyclical unemployment and a slowdown of the economy from long-run trends. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates in March 214 showed noticeable improvement over March 213, most edged up slightly compared to the prior month of February 214. Lee County's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 6.3 percent in March 214, up from the February 214 figure of 6.2 percent, but below the 7.5 percent figure of March 213. Collier County s unemployment rate was 6. percent in March 214, slightly above the 5.9 percent figure of February 214, and 1.2 percentage points below March 213. Charlotte County had an unemployment rate of 6.4 percent in March 214, up from 6.3 percent in February 214, but below the 7.5 percent of March 213. Hendry County s February and March employment and unemployment data had some large swings and are being reviewed. We did not include the February and March data in this month s report but hope to solve the discrepancy before next month s report. Hendry s employment picture through January 214 is depicted in Chart 16. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Glades County was 7.1 percent in March 214, slightly higher than 7. percent in February 214, and down from 8. percent in the March 213 figure. Florida s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.3 percent in March 214 from 6.2 percent in February 214, but dropped 1.4 percentage points from March 213. This is its lowest level since June 28. Nationally, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remained at 6.7 percent in March 214, albeit.8 percentage points below the March 213 figure. 15

16 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 13: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment 35 Labor Force and Unemployment: Lee County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate 2.. Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 14: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Labor Force and Unemployment: Collier County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 16

17 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 15: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Labor Force and Unemployment: Charlotte County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 16: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Labor Force and Unemployment: Hendry County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 17

18 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 17: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment 7 Labor Force and Unemployment: Glades County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Charts 18 through 2 show the existing single-family home sales by a Realtor for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties. The line represents median prices with the scale on the right side; and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. Sales of single-family homes in the three coastal counties amounted to 1,849 units in March 214, up 34 percent from February 214, but 28 units fewer than March 213. Lee, Charlotte, and Collier Counties each saw higher median prices in March 214, compared to March 213. Lee County sales of 1,68 units were down seven percent from March 213, and the median price increased nine percent over the same period to $185,. Sales were 37-percent higher than the previous month s figure of 779. Collier County had 431 single-family home sales in March 214, a three percent increase from March 213, accompanied by a 26-percent increase in median price to $36,. Charlotte County recorded 35 single-family home sales in March 214, up 13 percent from March 213. The median price of $142,5 in March 214 was seven percent higher than that of March

19 Apr 212 May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 May 213 Jun 213 Jul 213 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Apr 212 May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 May 213 Jun 213 Jul 213 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS 14 $ $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 2 Lee Homes Sold Lee Median Sale Price $4 $2 $ Source: REALTOR Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc. Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County 6 Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS $ $4 $35 $3 3 2 $25 $2 $15 1 Collier Homes Sold * Collier Median Sale Price $1 $5 $ * Does not include Marco Island. Source: Naples Area Board of REALTORS (NABOR) 19

20 Apr 212 May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 May 213 Jun 213 Jul 213 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 2: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS $18 $16 $ Charlotte Homes Sold Charlotte Median Sale Price $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Source: Florida REALTORS Punta Gorda, Florida MSA ; Consumer Confidence Index Chart 21 shows monthly data for the last three years and a linear trend line based on that data for both the Florida Consumer Confidence Index ( CCI ) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment ( ICS ) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. The trend continues to be positive for both indices. The national ICS dipped to 8. in March 214 from 81.6 in February 214, but was 1.4 points above March 213. As noted in the March 28th Survey of Consumers: The current state of consumer finances were(sic) just as strong in March as in December, and more importantly, consumers viewed their financial prospects for the year ahead much more favorably in March than at the start of the winter season. The gains in personal finances were offset by rising concerns about the outlook for the overall economy. While consumers still anticipate that the national economy will continue to grow during the year ahead, they have become increasingly concerned about the ability of the economy to avoid a downturn sometime in the next five years. The Florida Consumer Confidence Index rose to 81 in March 214, an increase of 3 points over the prior month and 5 points higher than March 213. This increase is consistent with our expectations that consumer sentiment among Floridians would remain near post-recession highs, given relatively good economic news and the more budget certainty with deals to fund federal budgets through this year, said Chris McCarty, the Survey Director. While keeping in mind that an index number of 81 is modest when looking at the entire history of the index, it is as high as we have achieved since before the recession began in December 27. 2

21 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Chart 21: Consumer Confidence Index 1 Florida and US Consumer Confidence Data Most Recent 3 Years and Linear Trend FL CCI FL CCI Trend US ICS US ICS Trend 5 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Price Index As noted last month, year-to-year changes in consumer price indices (CPI) through February 214 are shown in Chart 22. These changes reflect reductions in the rate of growth of CPI s. The National CPI grew by 1.1 percent from February 213 to February 214, compared to 2. percent from February 212 to February 212. The Southern Region CPI growth rate dipped to 1.2 percent for the 12 months ending February 214, compared to 1.8 percent in the period ending February 213. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale CPI increase was 1.6 percent from February 213 to February compared to an increase of 1.9 percent from February 212 to February

22 Change From Year Earlier Chart 22: CPI Annual Percentage Change 8% Consumer Price Index Monthly Data - Change From Year Earlier 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region US National -6% Feb-5 Feb-6 Feb-7 Feb-8 Feb-9 Feb-1 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Source: BLS The components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending February 214 are shown in Chart 23. The largest increases from February 213 were seen in apparel costs (6. percent), other goods and services (3.6 percent), medical care (3.2 percent), and housing (2.8 percent). The transportation cost segment declined, by 2.9 percent. 22

23 Chart 23: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending February 214 Apparel Other goods and services * Medical care Housing Food and beverages Education and Communication Recreation Transportation * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Source: BLS 12 Month Percentage Change Population As we have previously reported, the following charts reflect updated county population forecasts released by Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR) working with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). Population growth from 199 to 212 is shown in Charts 24 and 25. Collier County grew at a compound average annual growth rate of 3.6 percent from 199 to 212. Lee County s population grew at an annual rate of 3. percent. Charlotte, Glades, and Hendry Counties had average annual rates of population growth between 1.8 and 2.4 percent per year. Chart 26 and its accompanying table show projected population increases from 215 to 24. These projections are consistent with those previously reported. The overall rate of regional growth still averages 1.6 percent compounded per year for this period, resulting in a 28-year increase of 55 percent for the five-county region from 212 to 24. Projected growth rates in all five counties are substantially below their actual growth rates for the period

24 Population - Thousands Population - Thousands Chart 24: Coastal Counties Population Growth 199 to Historic Population Growth Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties Lee 3 Collier Charlotte Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 213 and BEBR Florida Population Studies, March 213. Chart 25: Inland Counties Population Growth 199 to Historic Population Growth Glades and Hendry Counties 4 35 Hendry Glades Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 213 and BEBR Florida Population Studies, March

25 Populaton (Thousands) 2, 1,8 Chart 26: Population Projections by County Population Projections ,6 1,4 1,2 1, Glades 13,286 14,135 14,953 15,723 16,442 17,127 Hendry 38,488 39,615 4,665 41,62 42,484 43,279 Charlotte 164, , ,28 188,32 194,94 21,123 Collier 341, ,585 48, , ,77 497,11 Lee 674, , , ,484 1,4,53 1,77,279 Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 213 and BEBR Florida Population Studies, March