DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY. 14 th October, 2014
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1 DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY 14 th October, 2014
2 Domestic and International Highlights Indian rupee opened at after closing the previous session at levels. The intra-day range is seen between levels. September Inflation Exceeds Expectations at 6.46%, an All-Time Low The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell in September to a record low of 6.46%, against 7.2% eyed and previous level of 7.8% released in August. Sharp decline in food prices and a favorable statistical base helped the decline in inflation. Core inflation reduced to 5.9% from 6.9% previous month, while fuel inflation eased to 3.45%. RBI's stand on controlling inflation has turned out to be fruitful. However, declining industrial production might drive the central bank to rethink further strategies. Concerns of risks linked to sub-normal monsoons and rising geopolitical tensions would be important aspects to consider future price escalations. Arbitrage Opportunities in NDF decline on Account of Stable Rupee The spread in the one month contract maturity now stands at paisa relative to paisa in May-June when rupee was on an appreciating trend. Traders looking to sell dollars in the NDF markets, expecting a stronger rupee are not unwinding their positions as the US dollar is gaining strength globally. India to Take Steps to Curb Chinese Imports In order to bridge the widening trade gap between India and China, seen to be unsustainable in the long run, the government is looking to put in safeguards to cut the imports. Chinese companies are being invited to invest and open manufacturing bases in India. According to Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), the trade deficit with China stands at $36 billion, with exports standing at $15 billion and imports in the $51 billion range. Indian bond yields closed at 8.42% as against the previous level of 8.46%. The US 10 year treasury yield is trading at 2.25% against the previous level of 2.28%. With the exchange rate becoming increasingly stable, the arbitrage opportunities have lessened between the USDINR offshore non-deliverable forward market and domestic forwards. Trend: The USDINR pair is still in a bullish trend and an upswing in the market can see the pair gather momentum towards levels again. Outlook Exporters are now suggested to hold for cover, with a target of levels. (They are suggested to discuss their positions with their respective RM's). Importers are now suggested to cover close to levels after discussing their positions with their respective RM's. Short term range (7-15 days): Medium term range (3-6 months):
3 Key Indices Asian Currencies Benchmark Indices Sensex Closing Change % Change Asian Currencies Singaporean Dollar Value (US $) % Change Nifty Hang Seng Korean Won Philippines Peso Nikkei Indonesian Rupiah Dow Jones Nasdaq Dax Indian Rupee Chinese Yuan Malaysian Ringgit Thailand Baht FII flows in India Debt ($ mn) Equity ($ mn) th Oct Oct month Year so far Source: Bloomberg
4 USDINR: Daily Chart USDINR pair met its target of levels last week. After witnessing a break near levels, the Indian Rupee is expected to consolidate at levels before resuming its way ahead to levels.
5 EUR/USD The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday after a key U.S. Federal Reserve official said rate hikes could be delayed, if the global economic growth continues to flatter. The euro zone will release its industrial production data today. GBP/USD The British Pound was seen under pressure against the US dollar ahead of UK inflation numbers which are expected to be released today. Inflation rate is expected to slow to 1.4% vs the previous level of 1.5%. AUD/USD Australian dollar appreciated against the US dollar despite a downbeat business survey and bearish remarks from a central bank official. The NAB's business confidence and business conditions survey showed confidence at plus 5 in September, down from plus 7 in August. USD/JPY The Japanese Yen was trading flat against the US dollar. The consumer confidence index in Japan surprisingly eased to a level of 39.9 in September, lower than market expectations of 41.8 levels. He overall strength in the pair is seen over the last couple of days on account of Save Heaven appeal.
6 Gold Precious gold prices are trading near one month high levels as Gold price surges in 5 of last 6 trading sessions. The demand of yellow metal surged as global equity markets continued to tumble on weak economic outlook of the world economy. Crude Oil The Crude oil prices came under pressure as OPEC countries are not expected to cut their supply outlook before their November meeting. The Brunt Crude fell near 4 year low levels as it fell by more than $2 in a single day. Dollar index The US dollar witnessed a further drop against other major currencies on concerns of weak global economic outlook. Fed officials have maintained to keep interest rates low to support the global economy. Economic Calendar Date Description Actual Forecast Previous Oct 14 Tues GBP CPI y/y - 1.4% 1.5% Oct 14 Tues EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Oct 15 Wed CNY CPI y/y - 1.7% 2.0% Oct 15 Wed USD Core Retail Sales Data - 0.2% 0.3%
7 About us India Forex Advisors Pvt. Ltd is one of India's leading global Forex and treasury consulting company. We help companies explore extra-ordinary opportunities, manage and sustain growth, and maximize their revenue by minimizing the risks. Since 2005, we have been a trusted partner in Forex Consulting, Treasury Management and Forex Operational Excellence. We have always believed that every client needs a customized offering and we have a long history of serving mandate clients and tailoring the offering to their needs. We provide the right people and the right skill sets to ensure that our clients' solutions are specifically tailored and done right the first time. Contact Research Team admin@indiaforex.in Company Address 7th Floor- Sangita Ellipse Sahakar Road Vile Parle (East) Mumbai admin@indiaforex.in Tel No.: Fax No.: Disclaimer These views/ forecasts All are Interbank rates and do not include bank margins Copyright@ INDIA FOREX ADVISORS PVT LTD. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of India Forex Advisors Pvt Ltd. These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on India Forex reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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