COUNTRY ESSENTIALS BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA

Transcription

1 COUNTRY ESSENTIALS BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA Summer 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS / 02 / 03 / 05 / 05 General Information Risk Assessment Foreign Trade Economic Key Data / 06 Insolvency / 08 / 09 Checklist for Business Operations Contacts Coface / 10 References Overview The Coface Country Essentials offer a concise and clearly structured overview of country economic facts. The most important facts for 18 countries in Central and Eastern Europe include the most recent risk overview and our Coface country risk assessment. You receive a general information on the country ranging from major cities to natural resources and most important sectors. This is followed by our risk assessment giving a general overview on the economic and political situation and the strength and weaknesses of the country. The next chapter focuses on the key facts: top trading partners and economic data like GDP growth, inflation or public debt. The insolvency part shows you the top and flop sectors, information on the development of insolvencies and the procedure. Last but not least we provide you with a checklist for business operations and the latest corruption and doing business index data. If you need further information your will find a list of our contacts in the region.

2 GENERAL INFORMATION Bosnia and Herzegovina is a country in South-Eastern Europe, which borders on Serbia, Montenegro and Croatia. On 15 October 1992, it seceded from the Confederation of Yugoslavia. The ensuing Bosnia War ended with the signing of the Dayton Agreement on 14 December The Federal Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina is comprised of the largely autonomous individual states ( Entities ) Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina ( Federation ) and the Republika Srpska ( Republic, RS ) as well as Brčko, a special administrative district. The Federation is further divided into cantons and municipalities, while the Republic only has municipalities. Legislation and administration are for the most part independent. The only decisions made in Sarajevo are related to foreign policy and defence, monetary policy and international economic relations. Form of government: Administrative organisation: Area: Democratic Federal State Two entities: The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Serbian Republic (Republica Srpska) as well as the Protectorate District Brčko 51,209.2 km² Population: 3,831,555; density: 75 inhabitants/km² Official language: Bosnian, Croatian, Serbian Local currency: 1 Convertible Mark (CM) = 100 Fening 1 EUR = CM Capital: Sarajevo: 310,000 inhabitants Major cities and population: Banja Luka Tuzla Zenica Mostar 199,191 inhabitants 131,638 inhabitants 127,162 inhabitants 112,073 inhabitants Ethnic groups: Religion: 49% Bosniacs (Bosnians), 34% Serbs, 16% Croats, 1% minorities (Bosnian-Herzegovinian Romanies) 40% Muslims, 34% Serbian-Orthodox, 15% Catholics, 11% minorities (Jews and others) Natural resources: Iron ore, coal, salt, bauxite, lead, zinc, agricultural land Most important sectors: Energy, motor vehicles Membership in international organisations: IMF, World Bank, EBRD, CEFTA, WTO (observer status since 1999), accession candidate to NATO since April 2010 / 2

3 RISK ASSESSMENT Coface Country Assessment Weak growth hampered by weak domestic demand Economic activity was considerable affected D by the floods in May and August 2014, the worst recorded ever. Industrial output, already hit by a series of strikes during the year, fell sharply and the agricultural sector (6.6% of GDP) lost the majority of its harvests. The cost of the damage was estimated at nearly EUR 2 billion (9% of GDP) and aid amounting to EUR 809 million was sent to support the country, especially by the United Kingdom. In 2015, growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina will be driven mainly by industry, as the country is a subcontractor to the European automotives industry and to ArcelorMittal. However, even though the unemployment rate is expected to fall in 2015, it will remain very high (25% of the economically active population and over 60% among the young). New strikes could erupt, which will slow growth. On the other hand, the process of privatising the economy, started following the Dayton Agreement in 1995, is struggling to get off the ground, which is curbing economic activity. Private consumption, already hit by austerity measures, will remain too weak to act as a growth driver. The slump in demand will keep a lid on inflation, which could rise in 2015 on a par with the expected increase in agricultural prices (after the decline in production in 2014). As for private investment, this could contract, as the banking sector has been weakened by the increase in non-performing loans (amounting to 15.5% of total loans as at end 2014) and so could keep a tight rein on credit. Foreign exchange reserves represent over five months of imports, which bolsters the central bank s ability to maintain the exchange rate for the convertible mark against the euro. Ongoing public and current account deficits The floods of 2014 contributed to the worsening of the public finances. The fiscal balance deteriorated as public spending rose, thus undermining the budgetary efforts achieved since Whereas in February 2014, the IMF had suspended disbursements to the country due to recurrent disputes between MPs on the adoption of structural reforms, it finally decided to grant assistance following the dreadful weather. Civil service salaries, which represent 11% of GDP, are a heavy drain on the budget. In 2015, the public debt is expected to stabilise and the budget deficit is set to be below 3% of GDP. The federal budget (excluding debt interest), frozen for three years, and weak political institutions (and the instability due to splits within the country) are an obstacle to instilling budgetary discipline. The trade balance deficit will continue in 2015, even though exports are likely to pick up after a difficult 2014, marked by a fall in output. Nonetheless, agricultural exports could decline, given that Bosnia is suspected of importing products from countries under the Russian embargo in order to then export them to Russia. Ongoing remittances from expatriate workers (8% of GDP) will prevent the current account from widening further. While FDIs (2% of GDP) will cover only a small proportion of financing needs, external aid remains indispensable. Precarious political situation Following the Dayton Agreement, the Bosnia administration is split into two distinct entities: the Bosnia-Herzegovina Federation and the Bosnian- Serb Republic. The complexity of this structure weakens the power of the central executive led by Prime Minister Vjekoslav Bevanda. The rotating presidency chaired between the three representa- Strengths Financial assistance from the IMF Substantial remittances from expatriate workers Stabilisation and Association Agreement concluded with the EU in June 2008 Weaknesses Poor export diversification High unemployment Size of the informal sector Infrastructure and business climate shortcomings Institutional and ethnic fragmentation / 3

4 RISK ASSESSMENT tives of the Bosnian Muslim, Croatian Catholic and Serbian Orthodox communities maintains political inertia. The October 2014 elections were marked by the defeat of the social democrat party and the victory of the main nationalist parties: in the federation the SDA (representing the Bosnians) and the HDZ BiH (the Bosnian Croats) won the parliamentary elections while in the Srpska Republic the SNSD (Serbian Bosnians) were the victors. However, the latter could run up against difficulties, given the economic gloom in that region especially because of the small number of parliamentary seats held (29 out of 81, 42 with their potential allies). The victory of these independence parties illustrates the previous government s inability to implement reforms and its failure to respond adequately to the floods. Meanwhile, the business climate is very limited, in a country with a deficient legal system, high levels of corruption and a sizeable informal sector. Moreover, in February 2014 the European Commission announced the end to EU accession talks on grounds of the authorities failure to embark on reforms. Moreover, relations with Russia could deteriorate in / 4

5 FOREIGN TRADE & ECONOMIC KEY DATA Bosnia and Herzegovina s Top Trading Partners Imports in MEUR EU 28 3,603 * 3,660 * 4,658 * 4,869 Germany Croatia 1,138 1,126 1, Italy Serbia Exports in MEUR EU 28 2,345 * 2,328 * 3,156 * 3,198 Germany Italy Croatia Serbia Source: Indirect Taxation Authority of B&H, no data for District Brčko available. * EU 27 Economic Key Data Key Data (e) 2015 (f) GDP growth (%) Inflation (yearly average) (%) Budget balance (in % of GDP) Current account (in % of GDP) Public debt (in % of GDP) (e) estimate (f) forecast Source: Coface / 5

6 INSOLVENCY Top 5 sectors Financial services and miscellaneous Mechanics and precision Utilities and public services Metals Paper, packaging and printing Insolvencies in 2014 The number of new bankruptcy cases stagnated in In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 150 proceedings were opened last year - slightly more than in the Republic of Srpska with 103 opened cases. But those figures underestimate reality in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Over 30,000 companies formally fulfill the conditions for the opening of bankruptcy proceedings. 1 Insolvency Laws & Insolvency Procedures Bankruptcy and insolvency in Bosnia and Herzegovina are governed by the Law on Bankruptcy of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republic of Srpska of 2005 (the Insolvency Law ). The Insolvency Law contains many of the elements that international insolvency standards and best practices recognize as critical to a wellfunctioning insolvency legal regime. However, there is room for improvement in the area of organisation proceedings. The bankruptcy time is estimated to be 3.3 years; the cost of bankruptcy Flop 5 sectors Construction Agriculture, meat, agro food and wines Mineral products, chemicals, petroleum, plastics, pharmaceuticals and glass Wood and furniture Non specialised trade and textiles, leather and clothing is 9% of the estate and the recovery rate is 35% of the estate. There is no evidence that the public authorities have conducted information campaigns about second chance issues. According to the law on bankruptcy proceedings, the debtor shall be discharged of his remaining obligations after the satisfaction of the creditors in the bankruptcy proceedings. There are no legal barriers for entrepreneurs who underwent non fraudulent bankruptcy to receive loans. The time for completion of bankruptcy proceedings is one year for companies with assets of less than EUR 2.5 million and two years for larger companies. The court determines the removal from the insolvency register. There are no discriminatory provisions in the Law on Bankruptcy Proceedings in the Federation and in the Republika Srpska for entrepreneurs who underwent non-fraudulent bankruptcy. No information has been provided on discriminatory provisions with regard to public procurement and support schemes. Bosnia s Biggest Insolvencies in 2014 Company Name Sector Total liabilities in Euro Town 1. DI BORJA AD TESLIĆ-U STEČAJU Construction 4,785,049 Teslić 2. BIŽ D.O.O Banja Luka Non-specialized trade 1,426,441 Banja Luka 3. WETER d.o.o. Istočno Sarajevo-Istočno Novo Sarajevo Wholesale 906,654 Istočno Novo Sarajevo 4. RIVAS PROJEKT D.O.O. U STECAJU Retail 263,544 Banja Luka 5. PSNP JANKOVIĆ d.o.o. preduzeće za proizvodnju,promet i usluge Production 107,897 Caparde, Osmanci 1 / 6

7 INSOLVENCY The EBRD s 2009 Insolvency Sector Assessment found that the Insolvency Law is in high compliance with international standards (such as the World Bank s Principles and Guidelines for Effective Insolvency and Creditor Rights Systems, the UNCITRAL Working Group on Legislative Guidelines for Insolvency Law, and others) based on five core areas most relevant to the sector. Three core areas of the Insolvency Law performed exceedingly well when compared with international standards: assets of the estate, commencement of proceedings and treatment of creditors. In the area of estate assets, comprehensive legislation for the avoidance of pre-bankruptcy transactions remains the most impressive feature. In this regard, the Insolvency Law provides for identification of avoidable transactions and for avoidance of preferential transfers. Moreover, the Insolvency Law requires the debtor and third parties to provide an insolvency administrator (sometimes known as a trustee) with all relevant information concerning the assets and financial affairs of the debtor. However, while the law requires debtors to deliver or make available all estate assets to the administrator, there is no corresponding requirement for third parties with estate assets in their possession to do the same. This is an area which would benefit from reform. In the areas of commencement of proceedings and treatment of creditors, the Insolvency Law is similarly very strong. The financial condition precedent to commencing an insolvency case is clear, and the law applies to natural persons, legal entities and state-owned enterprises. Alternative remedies of liquidation and reorganization are contemplated and an automatic stay of actions against the debtor applies upon commencement of proceedings. Creditors enjoy adequate opportunity to participate in insolvency proceedings and the law contains provisions to keep them informed as the case progresses. Furthermore, the Insolvency Law sets adequate procedures for submitting and determining allowable claims and treats claims within the same class equally. lacks provisions for reorganization financing and fails to prohibit the termination of essential services to a debtor attempting reorganization. Additionally, the law currently does not contain any restrictions on voting by connected parties or any provisions that allow post-approval modification of a plan. The results of the 2009 EBRD Assessment also reveal that the legislative framework relating to insolvency administrators is weak and should be improved. The 2009 Assessment revealed that this particular aspect of the Insolvency Law is in low compliance with internationally recognized standards. The provisions in the Insolvency Law regarding the bases for appointment and replacement of insolvency administrators are fair but could be considerably improved. Currently, there are no provisions for the resignation, retirement or death of an insolvency administrator. Furthermore, there are no provisions for professional standards or ethical codes of conduct for insolvency administrators. Although these core areas performed exceptionally well, the EBRD s assessment reveals that there is still some room for improvement of the Insolvency Law. In particular, the law is generally weak in the area of reorganization proceedings. Specifically, the law should be reformed to include provisions for independent analysis of a proposed reorganization plan to ensure that it meets minimum requirements. The Insolvency Law also currently / 7

8 CHECKLIST FOR BUSINESS OPERATIONS The following table summarizes relevant information for investors and exporters. Corporate law Competence of the entities Business-friendly registration procedure in the Republika Srpska Minimum capital stock company: CM 50,000 (Federation) Minimum capital limited liability company: CM 2,000 (Federation) Tax law Investments 17% VAT (levied by the central government) Income tax: 10% Corporate tax in the constituent republics, Brčko Equal status for foreign investors Registration of investments mandatory Variety of investment incentives Broad protection Foreign exchange Money transfer in the Federation only in CM Expatriation possible after payment of taxes and duties Labour law Customs Average wage: BAM 835/month Work permit required Duty free access to the EU Due to SAA improved access to products from the EU Travel and residence Residence permit required Visa-free regime for Bosnians since the end of 2010 Corruption Doing Business Bosnia was 80 th in the International Corruption Perceptions Index In comparison, Germany was ranked 12 th and Austria was ranked 23 rd. The Corruption Perceptions Index is issued by Transparency International, and lists countries according to the perceived level of public sector corruption. This perception is based on surveys of managers and experts, and related solely to the public sector. The Doing Business Index issued by the World Bank ( expresses the ease of doing business in a particular country. In this ranking, Bosnia was ranked 107 th in 2015 advancing 24 places compared to the previous year. Germany and Austria were rated 14 th and 21 st, respectively. This index consists of ten different sub-indexes that determine whether laws or other regulations exist in certain areas and whether or how they are applied. For example, the subcategories deal with the payment of taxes, hiring of staff and the founding and closing of companies. / 8

9 CONTACTS COFACE Coface Austria & Coface Central Europe Stubenring Vienna T. +43 (1) F. +43 (1) Coface Lithuania Vilniaus str Vilnius T (5) F (5) Coface Albania serviced by Coface Croatia Avenija Dubrovnik 46/III Zagreb T (1) F (1) Coface Macedonia serviced by Coface Croatia Avenija Dubrovnik 46/III Zagreb T (1) F (1) Coface Belarus serviced by Coface Russia 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya str., 23, bld Moscow T. +7 (495) F. +7 (495) Coface Moldova serviced by Coface Romania 39 Calea Floreasca - Et District Bucharest T. +40 (21) F. +40 (21) Coface Bosnia & Herzegovina serviced by Coface Croatia Avenija Dubrovnik 46/III Zagreb T (1) F (1) Coface Montenegro serviced by Coface Serbia Bulevar Oslobodjenja Belgrade T (11) F (11) Coface Bulgaria 42 Petar Parchevich str Sofia T (2) F (2) Coface Poland Al. Jerozolimskie Warsaw T. +48 (22) F. +48 (22) Coface Croatia Avenija Dubrovnik 46/III Zagreb T (1) F (1) Coface Romania 39 Calea Floreasca - Et District Bucharest T. +40 (21) F. +40 (21) Coface Czech I.P. Pavlova Prague T F Coface Serbia Bulevar Oslobodenja Belgrade T (11) F (11) Coface Estonia serviced by Coface Latvia Berzaunes iela 11a Riga T (6) F (6) Coface Slovakia Soltésovej Bratislava T (2) F (2) Coface Hungary Tüzoltó utca Budapest T. +36 (1) F. +36 (1) Coface Slovenia Slovenceva ulica Ljubljana T (1) F (1) Coface Latvia Berzaunes iela 11a Riga T (6) F (6) Coface Ukraine 4 B. Gmyri Str., of Kyiv T (44) F (44) / 9

10 REFERENCES Internet >> Country Risk and Economic Research, CEE Insolvencies Panorama 2014, Coface, Niederlassung Austria, Vienna Print Handbuch Länderrisiken 2015, Coface, Niederlassung Austria, Vienna Imprint Media owner and production: Coface, Niederlassung Austria, Stubenring 24, 1010 Vienna, Austria; Editorial office: Susanne Krönes. Copyright and Liability Coface, Niederlassung Austria (Stubenring 24, 1010 Vienna, Austria) copyright, conditions of use: you may copy and publish the information on this site provided that you do not make commercial use of it and clearly indicate that it originates from Coface, Niederlassung Austria. This information is provided without guarantee and does not bind Coface, Niederlassung Austria in any way. The Coface Country Assessment was included in this country report as of May Coface, Niederlassung Austria cannot accept responsibility for changes made at a later date. / 10