Riding the global growth wave. Richard Grieveson. Press conference, 13 March New wiiw forecast for Central, East and Southeast Europe,
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1 Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies wiiw.ac.at Press conference, 13 March 2018 New wiiw forecast for Central, East and Southeast Europe, Riding the global growth wave Richard Grieveson
2 Overview 1. Global backdrop, drivers of growth in CESEE, forecasts Is the region overheating? 3. Where are the risks to growth? 4. Long-term convergence: can CESEE break out of the semi-periphery trap? 2
3 Global conditions: best coordinated upswing for almost a decade German Ifo business climate index, 2005= Source: Ifo. 3
4 CESEE: 2017 the best year since 2011, first time all 22 economies grew since 2007 Quarterly real GDP growth, change in % against preceding year EU-CEE WB-6 CIS+Ukraine Turkey (rhs) Q 11 3Q 11 1Q 12 3Q 12 1Q 13 3Q 13 1Q 14 3Q 14 1Q 15 3Q 15 1Q 16 3Q 16 1Q 17 3Q 17 4Q 17 Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics, own calculation. 4
5 Forecast revisions: Mostly positive upgrades in 2018, mixed for 2019 Real GDP growth revisions, regional and by country Remark: Current forecast and revisions relative to the wiiw Autumn forecast Colour scale reflects variation from the minimum (red) to the maximum (green) values. Source: wiiw forecast. 5
6 Growth forecasts: Convergence will continue in next three years Real GDP growth forecast, regional and by country Forecast, % EU-CEE WB Turkey CIS + Ukraine CESEE Remark: Current forecast and revisions relative to the wiiw Autumn forecast Colour scale reflects variation from the minimum (red) to the maximum (green) values. Source: wiiw forecast. 6
7 Drivers of growth (I): Positive outlook for consumption Unemployment rate, % Real wage growth, % EU-CEE CIS + Ukraine Turkey Western Balkans EU-CEE CIS + Ukraine Western Balkans Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics, own calculation. Forecasts by wiiw. 7
8 Ukrainian migration helping to relieve labour shortages The share of residence permits issued to Ukrainians over total immigrants 80% % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Source: Eurostat. 0% PL CZ SK LT BG HU EE RO LV 8
9 Drivers of growth (II): Investment will grow faster than GDP in most places during the forecast period Capacity utilisation, %, seasonally adjusted data. 90 1Q Q DE CZ SI HU EA-19 SK PL TR LT RO BG LV EE HR MK RS ME Source: Eurostat. 9
10 Drivers of growth (III): Expansion of external sector means better placed to take advantage of upswing Exports of goods and services, % of GDP Westerns Balkans HR, SI, BG, RO Baltics Visegrad Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics, own calculation. 10
11 Banking sector mostly well placed to support growth Bank non-performing loans in % of total loans end of period 60 3Q 17 3Q BG CZ EE HR HU LT LV PL RO SI SK AL BA ME MK RS XK BY KZ RU TR UA Source: wiiw Monthly Database incorporating national statistics. 11
12 Is CESEE overheating? wiiw Overheating index, standard deviations from historical average 1.6 4q 4Q q 4Q TR HU BA RS MK AL SK HR RU EE ME RO CZ LV UA PL BG SI LT KZ Note: Values represent average of 11 indicators. Historical average for Q value = , for Q value = Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics, own calculation. 12
13 Risks to growth (I): Global End of ultra-loose monetary policy; bursting of bubbles; trade war S&P 500, January 2009= Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13
14 Risks to growth (II): Regional Pockets of high corporate and/or sovereign leverage; East/West EU splits; threats to rule of law; Ukraine crisis; break up of the eurozone. General government gross debt, in % of GDP HR UA SI HU AL RS ME PL SK BY MK LT BA LV RO CZ TR BG KZ XK RU EE Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics. 14
15 Convergence: Success but also disappointment Indicators of convergence, Austria= Per capita GDP, 2000 Per capita GDP, 2017 Wages, CZ SI SK LT EE PL HU LV KZ RO HR RU BG BY ME RS MK BA AL XK UA Note: CESEE wages based on register-based surveys, Austria refers to national account data. Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics, own calculation. 15
16 Long-term challenge 1: Demographic decline Demographic trends in working-age population change in % compared to EU-CEE BG CZ EE HR HU LT LV PL RO SI SK EU-28 Note: Figures based on Eurostat baseline scenario. Source: Eurostat; own calculations. 16
17 Long-term challenge 2: Can CESEE break out of semi-periphery trap? Functional specialisation, averages CZ AT HQ R&D Production Logistics Support services 0.0 HQ R&D Production Logistics Support services Note: Relative functional specialisation retrieved from inward greenfield FDI projects in the manufacturing sector. For each function the global average equals 1. Source: fdi markets database, wiiw calculations. 17
18 Conclusions Growth at highest level for six years. Outlook positive In general no overheating Several risks to growth Convergence will continue, with long-term challenges 18
19 Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Thank you for your attention! Follow us: 19
20 Country codes AL Albania ME Montenegro BY Belarus MK Macedonia BA Bosnia and Herzegovina PL Poland BG Bulgaria RO Romania CZ Czech Republic RS Serbia EE Estonia RU Russia HR Croatia SI Slovenia HU Hungary SK Slovakia KZ Kazakhstan TR Turkey LT Lithuania UA Ukraine LV Latvia XK Kosovo CESEE CIS EU-CEE WB Central, East and Southeast Europe Commonwealth of Independent States European Union Central and Eastern Europe Western Balkans 20
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