The Hackett Money Flow Commodity Report November 3, 2016

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Bertram Goodman
5 years ago
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Growing Financial Success CONTENTS The US Dollar Is Setting Up for A major Bull Market Peak In The First Half of 2017 To Set Off a Terminal Bear market Decline.

Indicator Aggressive smart money selling has triggered a sell signal.

Shawn Hackett, President 23162 Post Gardens Way #720 Boca Raton FL 33433 561-573-3766 Email: Shawn@HackettAdvisors.com www.hackettadvisors.

1 Growing Financial Success CONTENTS The US Dollar Is Setting Up for A major Bull Market Peak In The First Half of 2017 To Set Off a Terminal Bear market Decline. Look For Downside Volatility Into Year End On US Election Uncertainty Weekly Smart Money Changes US DOLLAR INDEX THE BAROMETER FOR THE US ELECTIONS Smart Money Indicator Aggressive smart money selling has triggered a sell signal. This might be a sign the smart money is expecting a Trump victory Published By Hackett Financial Advisors, Inc. Shawn Hackett, President Post Gardens Way #720 Boca Raton FL Shawn@HackettAdvisors.com ISSN It goes without saying that how the global reserve currency of the world behaves in the US Dollar has profound impacts on asset prices of markets around the globe. We are heading into one of the most volatile US elections in a very long time with the outcome likely having a large impact on the US Dollar trends at least over the short run. Page 1 of 12

2 We also have the Federal Reserve indicating intentions to raise interest rates in December after the elections are over. What all this will mean to the value of the US Dollar is uncertain. We look to the smart money to give us some short term and longer term clues on what is to happen. We also like to look at long term logarithm price charts and open interest. Right now both our short term smart money oscillator and our longer term smart money indicator have triggered sell signals. This would seem to support a weaker dollar over the near term and a possible Trump presidential victory and or contested election. In looking at the last contentious election between Gore and Bush there was a period of Dollar weakness post election on the uncertainty of the election being contested. We believe that a contested election could certainly happen again and/or Trump is declared the victor where we could see US Dollar weakness on the uncertainty over a non career politician without any allegiance to any party taking over the presidency. The smart money is betting in this outcome. We will continue to monitor this in the weeks ahead for further clues. Page 2 of 12

3 Smart Money Oscillator A new smart money oscillator sell signal has been triggered Page 3 of 12

This epic looking bullish pennant pattern calls for a final rally to new highs in the first half of 2017 before placing the final top. Short term a correction looks likely.

4 This epic looking bullish pennant pattern calls for a final rally to new highs in the first half of 2017 before placing the final top. Short term a correction looks likely. The chart above which is a 45 year logarithmic chart of the US dollar shows a very well established 95% confidence interval. It shows that ultimately the US Dollar should reach the upside band near 110 before making a final top and rolling over into a terminal bear market. The short term price pattern is that of a bullish pennant that should resolve to the upside. Given our recent smart money sell signals and possible contested/trump victory US elections, it appears we may make a quick correction down to test the lower support line of the channel before the breakout to the upside we envision is to occur. Our thesis is that a final high in the US dollar will likely take place in the first half of 2017 and most likely the 2 nd quarter of Page 4 of 12

5 That top we believe will be the final top of the current bull market in the US Dollar and lead to what we think will be a permanent devaluation and the loss of the US dollar as the sole reserve currency of the world. The inflationary implication for this for agricultural prices are clear at a time we believe the fundamental framework for most Ag markets and especially the grain markets will be kicking into high gear. What we also know is that commodity markets tend to get ahead of major turning points in the US Dollar. So our expectations is that even though the US dollar may rally further into the first half of the year many commodity markets will bottom and start rising well before that turning point occurs. This was very true for commodities at the last major peak. The chart on the next page shows how commodities topped and were in a 3 year decline ahead of the major bullish turning point in We believe that the same will happen on the bottom. We believe that the bottom seen in early 2016 will likely have been the bottom for overall commodities and lead the major bearish first half turning point. That is why we are following this so closely and why the election could determine the pathway to this end point. Page 5 of 12

6 US Dollar Indic against the GSCI Commodity Index Commodities topped out in 2011 a full 3 years before the US dollar made its major bullish turning point. We expect the same for the commodity bottom. Page 6 of 12

7 The other indicator we like looking at is the open interest on US Dollar futures contracts which has risen recently and has broken a major downtrend line. You can see that open interest rose into the top and fell in the recent lows. The rise suggests that a trend change to the upside has begun that fits in with our first half final new high peak thesis. If you are in the Ag business or in the Ag investing business the next 3 years are likely going to see very high prices and very prosperous times. Even though all the gloom and doom in Ag makes one think such a forecast is beyond ridiculous it is precisely this kind of negative sentiment that actually breeds the increased likelihood of such a bull market forecast. Page 7 of 12

8 The recent rise in open interest is long term bullish into first half of 2017 after a likely near term correction Page 8 of 12

9 Hackett Financial Advisors Inc. specializes in the agricultural space where there is far less coverage by the commodity analyst community and where some of the greatest opportunities should remain in the years ahead. While everyone on the planet has an opinion on Crude Oil or Gold there are very few who study agriculture in the manner that we do. We would be happy to see if opening an account with us would fit your needs whether as a commercial operator and/or a professional investor/firm. Apply for an account online with the following link: We also put God first in our dealings with you and our approach to the markets. Our heart is in the right place and through is honor and grace great things are possible. We take the view that the more successful you are the more you can give back to those in need. It hardly makes any sense to do it for any other reason. Page 9 of 12

10 Also remember that you can also open an account with us at Hackett Financial Advisors Inc. We clear all our operations through R.J. O'Brien & Associates whcih is the oldest and largest independent futures brokerage and clearing firm in the United States. A futures commission merchant (FCM), RJO is a full clearing member of: the CME Group (founding member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and all its markets; IntercontinentalExchange (ICE); NYSE Liffe U.S.; and the CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE). RJO offers the latest in order entry technology coupled with 24-hour execution and clearing on every futures exchange worldwide. Clearing more than 100,000 client accounts, the firm provides a full range of services to the industry s largest global network of introducing brokers (IBs) and to commercial, institutional, international and individual s clients. These include more than 400 IBs and many of the world's largest financial, industrial and agricultural institutions. We do not engage in proprietary trading; all of our business focuses on our valued clients. Our Place in the Industry Founded in 1914, RJO is one of the last 'boutique' futures firms in the industry. It is a privately held business majority owned by the O'Brien family of Chicago. The O'Briens have been instrumental in the development of the futures industry and remain committed to the continued growth of the company and our leadership within the industry. With client assets of approximately $3.6 billion, RJO is a well-diversified, fully integrated FCM. The firm regularly captures top-tier market share in both agricultural and financial futures products at both the CME and CBOT If you have any questions about any of the content in this report, please call me at (888) or me at Shawn@HackettAdvisors.com. Thank you for reading and I hope your future investment decisions turn out to be prosperous ones. Best Regards, Shawn Hackett, President Page 10 of 12

11 The information, tools and material presented on HACKETTADVISORS.COM (this web site), in the HACKETT MONEY FLOW REPORT and in the HACKETT STOCK REPORT are provided for informational purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or a solicitation to sell or an offer or solicitation to buy or subscribe for securities, investment products or other financial instruments, nor to constitute any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities, investment products or other financial instruments. The information presented on HACKETTADVISORS.COM (this web site), in the HACKETT MONEY FLOW REPORT and in the HACKETT STOCK REPORT is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this information. You should independently evaluate particular investments and consult an independent financial adviser before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to any securities mentioned on HACKETTADVISORS.COM (this web site), in the HACKETT MONEY FLOW REPORT and in the HACKETT STOCK REPORT. The use of HACKETADVISORS.COM is at your own sole risk. HACKETTADVISORS.COM is provided on an "as is" and "as available" basis. Hackett Financial Advisors, Inc. makes no warranty that HACKETTADVISORS.COM will be uninterrupted, timely, secure or error free. No charts, graphs, formulae, theories or methods of securities analysis can guarantee profitable results. This document does not purport to be a complete description of the securities or commodities, market or developments to which reference is made. The information contained in HACKETTADVISORS.COM (this website), in the HACKETT MONEYFLOW REPORT and in the HACKETT STOCK REPORT has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources, which we believe are reliable. Hackett Financial Advisors, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. The HACKETT MONEY FLOW REPORT and the HACKETT STOCK REPORT are written as weekly tools to help investors make better financial decisions. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. The principals of Hackett Financial Advisors, Inc. and others associated or affiliated with it may recommend or have positions which may not be consistent with the recommendations made. Each of these persons exercises judgment in trading and readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.. FUTURES AND COMMODITIES TRADING AND STOCK INVESTING AND TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERY INVESTOR. INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS STRICTLY THE OPINION OF ITS AUTHOR AND IS INTENDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES AND IS NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY OR TRADE IN ANY COMMODITY OR SECURITY MENTIONED HEREIN. INFORMATION IS OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED RELIABLE, BUT IS IN NO WAY GUARANTEED. OPINIONS, MARKET DATA AND RECOMMENDATIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Page 11 of 12

12 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Hackett Financial Advisors Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. O Brien s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Hackett Financial Advisors Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Page 12 of 12

The Hackett Money Flow Commodity Report October 28, 2016

The Hackett Money Flow Commodity Report October 28, 2016 Growing Financial Success CONTENTS Look For Daily, Weekly and Monthly Breakdown Failure Reversal higher Buy Signals in Lean Hogs to Signal The Potential For A Major Low and Sizeable Advance With Possible