Former Stockbroker. Market Analyst for 13 Years. Over 2500 hours live television. Thousands of pages published.

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Former Stockbroker. Market Analyst for 13 Years. Over 2500 hours live television. Thousands of pages published."

Priscilla Hicks
5 years ago
Views:

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O Brien and is, or is not in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. O Brien s Research Department.

solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW.

1 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O Brien and is, or is not in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. O Brien s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. O Brien believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

2 Former Stockbroker Market Analyst for 13 Years Over 2500 hours live television Thousands of pages published

5 Identify the Opposition Pressures Involved Why Now? Taking Action

8 Bonds Ownership=Stream of Future Cash Payments Payments=Periodic Interest and Return of Principal When Mature Issued by U.S. Treasury to Fund Operation of U.S. Government Maturity Varies: Bills, Notes, or Bonds Many Consider Safe

9 Interest Rates Measure the Price of Money Affect Bond Prices World s Ultimate Commodity Heavily Traded with High Volume and Large Open Interest

10 Inflation Bond s Worst Enemy Erodes Purchasing Power of Future Cash Flow Expectations Determine Yield Requirements of Investors

11 Relationships

12 Relationships

13 Risk Interest Rate Risk Credit Risk Inflationary Risk

14 10-Year T-Note Yield ( ) The Great Depression

15 10-Year T-Note Yield ( ) Update: 2.71% 10/10/13 The Great Depression

16 Gold ( )

17 Sugar ( )

18 Crude Oil ( )

19 Corn ( )

20 10-Year T-Note Yield ( ) The Great Depression

21 10-Year T-Note Yield ( ) The Great Depression

22 10-Year T-Note Yield ( ) The Great Depression

23 10-Year T-Note Yield ( ) The Great Depression

24 10-Year T-Note Yield ( ) The Great Depression

25 10-Year T-Note Yield ( ) Update: 2.71% 10/10/13 The Great Depression

26 Risk Interest Rate Risk Credit Risk Inflationary Risk

27 Risk Interest Rate Risk Credit Risk Inflationary Risk

28 Risk Interest Rate Risk Credit Risk Inflationary Risk

29 Risk Interest Rate Risk Credit Risk Inflationary Risk

30 M2

31 M2 $700 Billion In 1 Year

38 Bonds

39 Cumulative Flows: Stock & Bond Funds

40 Global Bond Market Estimated at 30% Larger Than Global Stock Markets

41 Stocks Stealing All The Glory Housing Has Bottomed Smart Money and Foreigners Selling Risk Off Danger Yields to 5% Normal, T-Note Prices Drop 20%

45 10-Year T-Note Yield ( ) The Great Depression

46 10-Year T-Note Yield ( ) Update: 2.71% 10/10/13 The Great Depression

Utilize 10-Year Treasury Note Put Options Stay

Add To Position WHEN Trade Starts Moving Our Way

Capital Outlay (Goal: Original Risk or Less)

47 Utilize 10-Year Treasury Note Put Options Stay Short This Market Dynamic & Designed to Respond to Add To Position WHEN Trade Starts Moving Our Way Changing Market Conditions Tight Leash On Risk and Capital Outlay (Goal: Original Risk or Less) Looking For Multi-Year If Not Multi-Decade Bear Market in Bonds

Initial Downside Target Roughly 125-00 In

48 Initial Downside Target Roughly In Front Month, Representing Yield Approaching 3% Achieved June 24, 2013 No Surprise If Futures Prices Go To and Yields at 6% Over Time

52 10-Year T-Note Futures, Daily

53 10 Year T-Notes Futures Monthly

54 10-Year Treasury Yield, 1790+

56 Utilize 10-Year Treasury Note Put Options Stay Short This Market We will manage and track this trade for you on an ongoing basis. Add To Position WHEN Trade Starts Moving Our Way Tight Leash On Risk and Capital Outlay (Goal: Original Risk or Less) Looking For Multi-Year If Not Multi-Decade Bear Market in Bonds

57 Have Us Custom-Design Your Personal Strategy: -The U.S. is NOT the only market in trouble. -Allow us to help you design a strategy for international bond markets including regions like: -Europe -Japan We ll help you take advantage of the Global Chaos and diversify at the same time.

58 Foreign Exchange Energies Specialists in Futures and Options Brokerage since 1984 in: Precious Metals Interest Rates

59 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O Brien and is, or is not in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. O Brien s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. O Brien believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Former Stockbroker. Market Analyst for 13 Years. Over 2500 hours live television. Thousands of pages published.

Former Stockbroker. Market Analyst for 13 Years. Over 2500 hours live television. Thousands of pages published. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O Brien and is, or is not in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. O Brien