TROUW PRICE TREND. September 2017

Transcription

1 TROUW PRICE TREND September 2017

2 Dear Madam, Sir, Here with the Trouw Price Trends on Market Report (September 2017). Our Market Report contains useful information for your procurement and purchasing team as well. In case you would like us to send it directly to your team from now on, please inform us by sending us their addresses and their function. We would be pleased to facilitate this for you. Hopefully this information will be sufficient. With this information we shares our goals to enable customers to purchase sustainable nutritional solutions, we continued engage with our partners in the feed-to-food value chain to establish, control and manage systems for sourcing sustainable raw materials in a responsible way. In each issue of our Trouw Price Trends information we are pleased to keep sharing the latest updates on the world grain market as well as raw materials information with you, our prestigious customers. Together we will have stronger partnership in exchanging information to keep our industry growing and have more sustainable future. With our best regards, Trouw Nutrition Team

3 For further references please visit the following links at Trouw Nutrition website : Feed Outlook September 2017 Click here Market Perspective September 2017 Click here Grain Market Report September 2017 Click here Wasde Market Report September 2017 Click here

4 WHEAT: Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat supplies are decreased this month on lower production, down 21 million bushels to 1,739 million. The August NASS production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat indicated a significant decline compared to last year, primarily due to continued severe drought conditions affecting the Northern Plains. Partially offsetting this decrease is higher winter wheat production, on increased yields, with most of the production increase for white wheat. Food use estimates for both 2016/17 and 2017/18 are reduced, based primarily on the August 1, NASS Flour Milling Products report. The other wheat usage categories for 2017/18 are unchanged this month. Projected 2017/18 ending stocks are decreased 5 million bushels to 933 million. The 2017/18 season-average farm price is unchanged at the midpoint of $4.80 per bushel and the projected range remains at $4.40 to $5.20. Global 2017/18 wheat supplies increased significantly, primarily on an 8.6-million-ton production increase in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Russian production is a record 77.5 million tons, surpassing last year s record by 5.0 million. Winter wheat yields are forecast higher for both Russia and Ukraine, based mainly on harvest results to date. Additionally, spring wheat conditions have remained very favorable for both Russia and Kazakhstan, resulting in higher production forecasts. Canadian wheat production is reduced 1.9 million tons to 26.5 million on the increasing intensification of drought conditions in major production areas of the Prairie Provinces. The increased FSU production more than offsets reduced production forecasts in Canada, EU, and U.S., raising 2017/18 global production by more than 5.0 million tons to million.

5 USD/MT Soybeans (US No.1, Yellow) Wheat (US No.2, Soft red winter wheat) Maize (US No.2, Yellow) Developments last 8 Weeks Soybeans (US No.1, Yellow) Wheat (US No.2, Soft red winter wheat) Maize (US No.2, Yellow) Variances Weekly 2017 YTD Avg YTD Avg. YTD avg. FY 2016 avg. YTD'17/FY'16 Soybeans (US No.1, Yellow) - - #VALUE! % % Wheat (US No.2, Soft red winter wheat) % % % Maize (US No.2, Yellow) % % %

6 EU wheat price EUR/MT 350 Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) Developments last 8 Weeks Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) Variances Weekly 2017 YTD Avg YTD Avg. YTD avg. FY 2016 avg. YTD'17/FY'16 Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) % % %

7 Soybean meal, corn and wheat futures Notes: Futures contracts are priced in USD/short ton (approx metric ton). For the CME Group futures, the date of expiration of the contract (and therefore the length of the contract) can be deduced via the ticker code in grey in the middle of the graph. H=March, K=May, N=July, U=September, Z=Dec followed by the year. The futures contracts displayed here vary in expiration but can range from 1-6 months. Sources: CME Group, Barchart.com

8 C H I L E FISHING In Chile North: Fishing ban was lifted on February 01st. Catches started rather fine, despite there are some areas with under size anchovy. More than 20 ThMT were landed after only 5 days. South of Peru also is fishing well. Let s hope catches remain fine to recover better fishing levels this year. In Chile South: Last week, 9th and XIV Regions (Valdivia area), still were under sardine and anchovy ban, but it was lifted this week (on February 07th). Fishing started fine, with good size of fish and good oil yield. In the 8th region (Concepcion area), sardine ban will last until March 05th. Jack mackerel fishing remain very poor. MARKET Chile remain with almost no activity, with very low stock to trade. PERU IMARPE considers that the current warming phenomenon is clearly coastal and regional, calling it THE NIÑO COASTAL. The fundamental factor is the performance of ANTICYCLON, which in the second half of January practically collapsed, stopped blowing which brought invasion of residual tropical waters of the previous Child and is not originated by any Kelvin wave. The erratic cyclone has been observed for 5 years, so we have been in the hot stage. The fundamental difference between a COASTAL NIÑO and a conventional one, is the duration, while the local phenomenon take weeks the conventional el NIÑO is for months. The present must last for the duration of the Summer. Currently anchovy larvae have been found in very good condition, which suggests that they are resisting this phenomenon. In Pisco, where it has not been affected artisanal anchovy fishing is very good.

9 IMARPE, in view of the climatic changes has determined to make a EUREKA operation with 14 industrial fishing boats from February 20 x 5 days to make a study of the distribution of anchovy, spawning, temperature and salinity, and according to that find, they would make a cruise from the 26 of February by 38 days. In Peru, market remain active this week, increasing volume of pre-sales, for delivery in May/June, reaching now to over 100 thousand tonnes, against new quota, which is unknown yet. However rumors say it will be 3 millions tons. If so, future commitments are now about 15 percent of future productions. The price of this presale is US$ /mt CFR China for Super Prime fishmeal. although some operations has been recently concluded at levels slightly below that number with open qualities, with a USD 50/ton gap between Super and Prime. The price of fishoil US$1450 and going down. During this week therewas internal sales to DSM for omega, more or less mt, therefore unsold stock are close to mt TASA sold last week 1000mt in containers at US$1500/mt CFR Chile, that means US$1.440/mt Fob including freight and the bag.

10 Eur/100Kg EU average 50 US average 45 Oceania average Developments last 8 Months EU average US average Oceania average Variances Monthly 2017 YTD Avg YTD Avg. YTD avg. FY 2016 avg. YTD'17/FY'16 EU average % % % US average % % % Oceania average % % %

11 Lysine market: Tendency: Stable to up Supply is tight. Chinese producers are sold out until October. Price is around ,45 usd$/kg. Methionine Tendency: Up Market is quite, not much movement as well from producers after increased price from two big producers. Chinese producers follow in increasing price. Price is around usd$/kg Threonine: Tendency: up. Shipments from China is reported having delay due to less material available. Strict environmental regulation is the main reason output is reduced. Price is around usd$/kg Tryptophan: Tendency: Up. Market remains tight for this months. Availability not improve from last month. Price is around usd$/kg

12 General info: Most of vitamins prices are going to the same direction UP. Almost every week we have news informing different vitamin price is up. Eventhough most of Chinese factories has resume production after maintenance period, some of them are hold or not offering to the market. Limited output also caused by strict environmental policy. These caused price increase. The new vitamin that increase is Vit E that following others. Demand for Q3 has done. In September, customers will start buying for Q4. Price in producer s side increase very fast and siginificant but not yet in the end user market. Some traders who has old stock offering below producer s price. Vit A price is firming up. Supply availability is very tight. Price is about USD Vit B1 mono price is up. Raw material prices are increasing and output is limited. Producers have to limit their output in order to stay within their pollution quota. Price is around USD 80. Vit B2 price is up. Due to environmental restriction which lead to limited output, China producers are not offering at this moment. Supply becoming very tight from both Chinese and Western producers. Price is around USD Vit B3 (Niacinamide) price is soften. Market is quite with a well coverage for Q3 and some Q4. Price is around USD Calpan price is up. Producers are delaying and/or cancelling contracts and claiming very limited output due to maintenance shutdown in Summer. Price keep increasing. There s big price gap between traders and producers. Price now is about USD

13 Vit B6 price is firm up. Major producers are stopped producing or are producing limited quantities only. It is barely any offers in the market now. Price is about USD Folic acid price is stable. Folic acid production is heavily polluting and due to the current environmental control. The expectation is that factories might be forced to limit their output. Stock are still plenty in the market, no shortage. Price is around USD Vit B12, Price is stable to up. Producers want to follow other vitamins price uptrend and try to increase. Supply is quite sufficient thus no price jump up yet. Vit B12 0.1% price is about USD /kg. Vit C series prices are stable for the time being as end user has covered their Q3 needs. The long run trend is still firming up. Production costs are increasing and environmental regulations is very strict. Q4 price predicted to be higher then todays price level. Vit D3 500 price is soften. End users tend to buy AD3 instead of D3. Traders are currently release their stocks. (limited but cheap). Price is around USD 35-37/kg. Vit E50 price is up. As predicted, vit E50 is turn up. Currently no offer from producers, only from traders. Price is about USD Inositol price is stable. Supply and demand are balance. Price is about USD Biotin price is up. Biotin pure price increase 3-5x times to above USD One big producer offer at USD All biotin producers are still in maintenance. Traders reported offer slightly below USD 1000, once stock finish then price will follow the fresh offer. Vit K3 MNB price is stable. Producers intend to keep the price stable during summer and indicate a further up afterwards, due to tight supply and expensive price of raw material. Price is about USD

14 Copper: Up Copper Metal is still very firm. Manganous Oxide Market : Stable Mn Chemicals is producing again, but have huge back log orders to be delivered. Only in Q4 they will be back in the market for fresh quotes. Zinc Oxide : Market trend: Up LME zinc prices have remained bullish helped by weak dollar and bullish sentiment backed up by more tight supply/demand fundamentals. However the tightness in China is not expected to be a prolonged affair and increased refined imports from rest of the world stockpiles should cover near-term shortages, while Chinese smelter production will likely recover somewhat later into 2H17 on better concentrate availability. Zinc Sulfate: Market trend: Up China producers facing difficulties in getting enough raw materials. Environmental inspection result in closing down some factories. Therefore the supply of Zin Sulfate is very limited and price increase. Magnesium Oxide. Stable/Up. Due to environmental inspections and plant closures in China supply is starting to become tighter and replacement prices are rising.

15 Sodium Selenite. Down. Due to weak demand selenium metal prices have continued to soften which will lead to lower sodium selenite prices over the coming months. Cobalt. Stable/Up. Cobalt metal continues to increase and we expect it will do so for the coming months. Iodine. Up. Iodine compounds are expected to slowly increase after declining over a period of many months. In Europe the prices are currently stable due to the impact of the weaker dollar.

16 Disclaimer: Trouw Nutrition does not warrant or make any representations regarding the use, validity, accuracy, or reliability of, or the results of the use of, or otherwise respecting, the information/data in this report. Trouw Price Trends is an external e-newsletter provided by Trouw Nutrition. TPT0013/17/TNAP For further information please contact Ms. Karren Kim at