Feed Outlook. Market Perspective. Grain Market Report. WASDE Market Report

Transcription

1 Feed Outlook Market Perspective Grain Market Report WASDE Market Report

2 WHEAT: Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised this month by 30 million bushels to 1,064 million, all on lower feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 29, implied less feed and residual usage for the third quarter (December-February) than previously estimated. This report also showed record U.S. corn stocks on March 1, which are expected to continue displacing wheat for feed use for the remainder of 2017/18. No other supply or use categories are changed this month. Based on NASS prices and marketings reported to date along with price expectations for the rest of 2017/18, the season-average farm price is unchanged at the range of $4.60 to $4.70 per bushel. World 2017/18 wheat supplies increased this month by nearly 3.0 million tons as production is raised to a new record of million, mainly on Morocco s higher production estimate as it recovered from a severe drought in 2016/17. Global supplies also increased with a multi-year reduction in Iran s food, seed, and industrial use, which raised carry-in stocks by nearly 2.0 million tons. Raw material prices US 2

3 EU wheat price Soybean meal, corn and wheat futures 3

4 FISHING In Chile North: Fishing ban was lifted on February 01st. Catches started rather fine, despite there are some areas with under size anchovy. More than 20 ThMT were landed after only 5 days. South of Peru also is fishing well. Let s hope catches remain fine to recover better fishing levels this year. In Chile South: Last week, 9th and XIV Regions (Valdivia area), still were under sardine and anchovy ban, but it was lifted this week (on February 07th). Fishing started fine, with good size of fish and good oil yield. In the 8th region (Concepcion area), sardine ban will last until March 05th. Jack mackerel fishing remain very poor. MARKET Chile remain with almost no activity, with very low stock to trade. PERU IMARPE considers that the current warming phenomenon is clearly coastal and regional, calling it THE NIÑO COASTAL. 4

5 The fundamental factor is the performance of ANTICYCLON, which in the second half of January practically collapsed, stopped blowing which brought invasion of residual tropical waters of the previous Child and is not originated by any Kelvin wave. The erratic cyclone has been observed for 5 years, so we have been in the hot stage. The fundamental difference between a COASTAL NIÑO and a conventional one, is the duration, while the local phenomenon take weeks the conventional el NIÑO is for months. The present must last for the duration of the Summer. Currently anchovy larvae have been found in very good condition, which suggests that they are resisting this phenomenon. In Pisco, where it has not been affected artisanal anchovy fishing is very good. IMARPE, in view of the climatic changes has determined to make a EUREKA operation with 14 industrial fishing boats from February 20 x 5 days to make a study of the distribution of anchovy, spawning, temperature and salinity, and according to that find, they would make a cruise from the 26 of February by 38 days. In Peru, market remain active this week, increasing volume of pre-sales, for delivery in May/June, reaching now to over 100 thousand tonnes, against new quota, which is unknown yet. However rumors say it will be 3 millions tons. If so, future commitments are now about 15 percent of future productions. The price of this presale is US$ /mt CFR China for Super Prime fishmeal. Although some operations has been recently concluded at levels slightly below that number with open qualities, with a USD 50/ton gap between Super and Prime. The price of fish oil US$1450 and going down. During this week there was internal sales to DSM for omega, more or less mt, therefore unsold stock are close to mt TASA sold last week 1000mt in containers at US$1500/mt CFR Chile, that means US$1.440/mt Fob including freight and the bag. Fish oil and fishmeal prices 5

6 Tilapia prices US salmon import price 6

7 International Milk Price Market developments Powders SWP availability is tight and prices are relatively high compared to SMP. We 7

8 expect that most dryers are drying SMP and WMP instead of SWP. Probably producers are selling a lot of liquid whey. In the coming months we normally will see more milk and more cheese, so also more whey. So we expect stable or slightly lower SWP feed prices in Q2 and higher prices again in Q3. The spread between Food and Feed SWP is around 100 euro which is a clear statement that export is doing well and demand is good. SMP feed is under pressure, because Brussels is still selling (small volumes) old SMP from intervention at levels around 1050/1100 euro. We should not forget that this is old product in 25KG bags and with lower protein. However this sales is having a negative impact on SMP prices. It is very unlikely that the market will stay long at current low levels (SMP and SWP), but producers are also not keen on selling long ahead at current levels. Market developments General Global demand is good. Imports to China are again much higher than in the previous year. For example Jan import of SMP up 38 %, WMP up 39% and SWP also up 37%.We should keep in mind that China is already importing more than MT of dairy commodities per year. European SMP is the cheapest source in the World at the moment which is having a positive impact on export of SMP. In 2017 the EU exported MT more than what they did in There is a lot of uncertainty in the Dairy industry. Although Milk price is still reasonable good and will probably stay between levels of 30/35 cents. This is mainly caused by the good Cheese and Butter prices. EU will pass their milk production peak in May and it is very likely that if market prices are changing it will happen between May and July. We should not forget that decreasing prices are mostly going slow and increasing prices very rapidly. Current low prices of SMP will also have a positive impact on demand. Market developments vegetable Fats Palm oil prices are still moving around the 640 euro levels. We expect it will not go down further. It is very likely that palm oil prices will move up towards levels of 700 euro in the coming months. From a historical point of view 640 euro is not the lowest price we have seen before, but still a very attractive price to buy long ahead. Coconut oil price is still decreasing but we expect that the decrease will stop soon. 8

9 AMINO ACID Lysine market: Tendency: stable with uptrend tendency Some producers increase price due to increase of corn price. Price is around ,49 usd$/kg. Methionine Tendency: Soften Weak demand makes producers lowering their prices. Price is around usd$/kg Threonine: Tendency: stable Weak demand and producers are trying to get more orders. Price is around usd$/kg Tryptophan: Tendency: down a bit. Price started to go down a bit due to weak demand. Price is around usd$/kg 9

10 General info: Demand is still consider weak but there s slightly a positive movement toward Hari Raya, this is the season to stock up for big demand and long holiday. In term of raw material, DOC supply and currency; price are high for soy bean meal and start increasing for corn, DOC still not easy to get and price also high, IDR is still weak against USD. Price trend for vitamins are still down, while for Minerals is stable in the high side or some may up due to disruption from supply side. Vit A price is down. In end March, BASF has start to produce citral. Vit A1000 is expected to be ready in May. Wide range price is available in the market USD Vit B1 mono price is soften. China producers are now supplying actively to the market after their maintenance period. There s no shortage for supply. Price is around USD Vit B2 price is divided to 2 segments due to EFSA finding on the strain issue from Chinese material. This issue still not final yet, but people are start to stock up Western material, while Chinese material may shifted to other region. Price is around USD Vit B3 (Niacinamide) price is soften. Supply is good, and producers are trying to get more market share. Price is around USD Calpan price is down. Many producers are in the market, they are fighting for market share by lowering offer price. Xinfa an Xinfu are the biggest Calpan producers, their price slightly above the other small producers. Price now is about USD Vit B6 price is stable to soften. Though one big producer is shut down for maintenance supply is favorable at trader s stock. Price is about USD Folic acid price is stable to soften. Supply is plenty. Price is around USD Vit B12, Price is down but may be stable as Producers still struggling with environmental policy. Vit B12 pure price is around USD /kg. 10

11 Vit C series prices are soften. Producers will have maintenance shut down, but supply in the market are still fine. Traders also still want to offload it. Vit D3 500 price is soften. Chinese producers are hold the offer and Indian producers increase the price. However, market is weak, not much inquiry happen. Price is around USD 50-60/kg. Vit E50 price is down. The downtrend price is not as sharp as couple of weeks ago. Nevertheless, producers are now fighting with traders to offload the stocks. This is to anticipate supply from BASF that predicted ready in Q3. Price is about USD Biotin price is down. Supply of pure biotin is sufficient but demand is weak. Biotin pure price is around USD Vit K3 MNB price is stable with downward tendency. Price is about USD Phosphate. Stable. Strikes in Tunisia's phosphate mines has caused 2 months stop production, but now it is over. Though it will take time for the derivatives pipeline to refill. While in China, there will be new producers in the market. Copper: Firm up. The trade war between USA and China have big influence on the stock and commodity market. Therefore the market is very volatile and expected to stay on the high level. Cost of mining and processing is increasing. Supply from Russia and Turkey is tight. Producers running full capacity and surcharges are increasing. Material offered from LATAM is limited and prices stay firm 11

12 Magnesium Oxide. Firm up. There will be 1 month shut down production for factories in Liaoning area due to environment inspection. Moreover there will be China summit meeting in August thus government do not allowed using of dynamite to mine. By not using it cost is increase. Manganous: Stable at high side. Demand on manganese in fertilizer and electric/battery is good. Feed usage is running good and demand for MnO feed is high. Inventories are at a very low level. Zinc Oxide: Stable at high side. Zinc stocks are on a low level. The high prices activating new mine capacity. These projects will start up during 2018 and will result in more output. New supply and demand destruction due to zinc substitution will eventually rebalance the market, but that will take some time. Market stay very volatile and fundamentals are still good. Sodium Selenite. Up. Selenium metal prices continue to increase linked to good global growth and strong demand. Selenium derivative prices follow the metal trend and expected to continue to increase. Cobalt. Up. Cobalt metal also continues to increase due to global growth and continued interest from electric vehicles. Iron Sulphate. Stable. Disclaimer: Trouw Nutrition does not warrant or make any representations regarding the use, validity, accuracy, or reliability of, or the results of the use of, or otherwise respecting, the information/data in this report. Trouw Price Trends is an external e-newsletter provided by Trouw Nutrition. 12

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