Feed Outlook. Market Perspective. Grain Market Report. WASDE Market Report

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Claire Hudson
5 years ago
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1 Feed Outlook Market Perspective Grain Market Report WASDE Market Report 1

2 Raw Material Prices U.S EU Wheat Price 2

3 Soybean meal, corn and wheat futures 3

4 Fish oil and fishmeal prices Tilapia prices 4

5 US salmon import price 5

International Milk Price Market developments Powders Skimmed milk powder feed was recently around 1450 euro for a short period and came down until 1400 euro, which is still higher compared to 1 month

6 International Milk Price Market developments Powders Skimmed milk powder feed was recently around 1450 euro for a short period and came down until 1400 euro, which is still higher compared to 1 month ago. Food price SMP is at least 150 euro higher. As you can see in enclosed graph, we are at historical low levels. Without the Intervention stocks we would already have seen much higher prices. We also need to be aware, that if prices are moving up it can go very fast. SWP feed increased on basis of the import tax China introduced for USA dairy commodities. We expect that SWP will increase further but with current low milk protein prices, SWP cannot become to expensive. Maybe on short term up to max 800 euro and then down again towards 750 euro. Skimmed milk powder feed will probably stay around current levels, unless SMP food will increase, then it will also pull up SMP feed. Market developments General A lot of uncertainty in the market. Which is making it very difficult to predict what will 6

happen with the dairy commodity prices. Several dairy commodities are showing higher prices. This is good news for the Farmers Milk price and we will see a higher Farmers milk price the coming months.

Sweet whey powder and Whey permeate are sold in large volumes from USA to China and what will be the impact of this import tax? People expect higher prices in EU for these commodities.

7 happen with the dairy commodity prices. Several dairy commodities are showing higher prices. This is good news for the Farmers Milk price and we will see a higher Farmers milk price the coming months. China announced to implement 25% import tax increase on dairy commodities coming from USA. This is making everybody very nervous. Sweet whey powder and Whey permeate are sold in large volumes from USA to China and what will be the impact of this import tax? People expect higher prices in EU for these commodities. USA have to sell these products anyway, so need to find other (EU?) customers. Last week Brussels sold again MT from intervention stocks and together with the previous sales, it end up to almost MT sold, which needs to find it s way in the market. The milk production in EU is slowing down. New Zealand will also have less milk available for the new season. In general, global demand is still good and global production is slowing down, so stocks could disappear also soon. Market developments vegetable Fats Almost all vegetable oils have attractive low levels from historical point of view and as soon as buyers also notice this it will create extra demand and therefor a risk of higher prices. Whether this will happen also depends on USD/EURO and local exchange rates. Palm oil prices are stable just above 620 euro. As soon as Palm Oil price is going below 600 euro, demand and price will increase. Coconut oil reached levels of around 1000 euro and we believe that downward potential is max 75 euro extra. We should not forget that not that long ago prices have been very high and current prices are not the lowest we have seen, but still low enough to buy long ahead. Vitamin Bs are rebounding, some more than the others, meanwhile Vit A is dropping, while Vit E and C stable, Calpan rebounds, and D3 to increase MARKET INFO: 7

8 B1,B6 just follow market Unpredictable, both are at the lowest price in the market Quotations stopped by producers. One producer stopped B6 production in June due to environmental reasons. Some manufacturers would stop production for summer maintenance. B5 increase a little, Domestic China price firm. Market demand increased, and more strict environmental protection in Shangdong province D3 in China Adisseo still has low price due to old contract with Garden Nenter starts to produce Price trend up due to low stocks In other markets, BASF announced to prepare for producing of AD3 in July, the supply of AD3 will return to normal in the mid of August. Indian manufacturer increased the price. Vit C market stable. Forecast price trend slowly down, cost stable But due to their higher cost structure, producers will reduce volume in order to keep market from falling. B12 pure mkt drop too fast, not reasonable, passed the lowest point and now rebounded as fast too. Cost has changed. 2 nd half outlook: price tends to go up rather than down. Price can go back to the high level at the beginning of the year. B2 is expected to rebound in Q3. New capacity released, less market demand, the price of B2 dropped a lot. 8

9 EFSA published scientific opinions of existential risk in vitamin B2(produced by Guangji Pharma). European VB2 price rebounded a short period. As export quantity was restricted by foreign market, domestic price dropped to the bottom. Some manufacturer had less profit or even loss on cost. Due to environmental problem, Hegno stopped production from June 6. Tight market supply would see market price rebound. It is said domestic main manufacturers have the plan to stop production for further upgrading, with further less stock in the market, the price will increase. B4 stable in Q3 as raw material price is stable. Vitamin A affected by BASF announcement, prices drop towards Q4. Vit E market expected to recover in the next 3 months due to 1. Current market price is below cost 2. Half of Chinese producers are losing money 3. Low stock 4. No newcomer 5. Cost of production and raw material increased MINERALS TRACE AND AMINO ACIDS LYSINE Market weak, price stable at low level. Producers try to keep offers stable. Main producers in China are closing for maintenance, limiting output. This helps to keep price stable. METHIONINE: 9

10 Demand is weak. Price trend is stable to down. THREONINE: Stable at low prices. Likely to stay this way for next few months. TRYPTOPHAN: Producers started to hold prices. Market rebounded a bit but demand remain weak. COPPER SULPHATE: Demand of raw material is good. Metal price in general is increasing. Mining Capacity increase But market is still bullish short term MANGANOUS: Ore price is recovering, but whole market is pressed down by weak feed demand. PHOSPHATE: Price trend is stable to down. Same reason feed demand is weak. China domestic market is down. ZINC: Zince metal is up at LME. Medium term recovering and bullish. Disclaimer: Trouw Nutrition does not warrant or make any representations regarding the use, validity, accuracy, or reliability of, or the results of the use of, or otherwise respecting, the information/data in this report. 10

11 Trouw Price Trends is an external e-newsletter provided by Trouw Nutrition. For further information please contact Mr. Heng Aik Jin. heng.jin@trouwnutrition.com TPT0013/17/TNAP Follow us on: Copyright 2017, Trouw Nutrition Asia. All rights reserved. Want to change how you receive these s? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list. 11

Feed Outlook. Market Perspective. Grain Market Report. WASDE Market Report

Feed Outlook. Market Perspective. Grain Market Report. WASDE Market Report Feed Outlook Market Perspective Grain Market Report WASDE Market Report WHEAT: Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised this month by 30 million bushels to 1,064 million, all on lower feed