Feed Outlook. Market Perspective. Grain Market Report. WASDE Market Report

Transcription

1 Feed Outlook Market Perspective Grain Market Report WASDE Market Report

2 WHEAT: Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 25 million bushels on reduced exports. This reduction is primarily attributed to heightened Canadian competition expected from its increased exportable supplies. Canada and the United States compete in several of the same markets in Latin America and East Asia. No other supply or use categories are revised this month. Based on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the rest of the marketing year, the projected 2017/18 seasonaverage farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at the midpoint of $4.60 per bushel. However, the SAFP is narrowed by 10 cents at both ends of the range to $4.50 to $4.70. Global 2017/18 wheat supplies are increased, primarily on higher production forecasts forcanada and the European Union more than offsetting production declines in Brazil, South Africa, and Yemen. Canadian wheat production is raised 3.0 million tons to 30.0 million,largely on increased yields in the Prairie Provinces as reported in Statistics Canada s Production of Principal Field Crops report, released on December 6. EU wheat production is raised 1.0 million ton to million, mainly on higher production in 2

3 4

4 FISHING In Chile North: Fishing ban was lifted on February 01st. Catches started rather fine, despite there are some areas with under size anchovy. More than 20 ThMT were landed after only 5 days. South of Peru also is fishing well. Let s hope catches remain fine to recover better fishing levels this year. In Chile South: Last week, 9th and XIV Regions (Valdivia area), still were under sardine and anchovy ban, but it was lifted this week (on February 07th). Fishing started fine, with good size of fish and good oil yield. In the 8th region (Concepcion area), sardine ban will last until March 05th. Jack mackerel fishing remain very poor. MARKET Chile remain with almost no activity, with very low stock to trade. PERU IMARPE considers that the current warming phenomenon is clearly coastal and regional, calling it THE NIÑO COASTAL. The fundamental factor is the performance of ANTICYCLON, which in the second half of January practically collapsed, stopped blowing which brought invasion of residual tropical waters of the previous Child and is not originated by any Kelvin wave. The erratic cyclone has been observed for 5 years, so we have been in the hot stage. The fundamental difference between a COASTAL NIÑO and a conventional one, is the duration, while the local phenomenon take weeks the conventional el NIÑO is for months. The present must last for the duration of the Summer. Currently anchovy larvae have been found in very good condition, which suggests that they are resisting this phenomenon. In Pisco, where it has not been affected artisanal anchovy fishing is very good. IMARPE, in view of the climatic changes has determined to make a EUREKA operation with 14 industrial fishing boats from February 20 x 5 days to make a study of the distribution of anchovy, spawning, temperature and salinity, and 5

5 according to that find, they would make a cruise from the 26 of February by 38 days. In Peru, market remain active this week, increasing volume of pre-sales, for delivery in May/June, reaching now to over 100 thousand tonnes, against new quota, which is unknown yet. However rumors say it will be 3 millions tons. If so, future commitments are now about 15 percent of future productions. The price of this presale is US$ /mt CFR China for Super Prime fishmeal. Although some operations has been recently concluded at levels slightly below that number with open qualities, with a USD 50/ton gap between Super and Prime. The price of fish oil US$1450 and going down. During this week there was internal sales to DSM for omega, more or less mt, therefore unsold stock are close to mt TASA sold last week 1000mt in containers at US$1500/mt CFR Chile, that means US$1.440/mt Fob including freight and the bag. Fish oil and fishmeal prices Japanese wholesale prices 6

6 7

7 Market developments Powders In the USA dairy prices for SMP and SWP are lower as they are in the EU, which will put pressure on EU prices as well. EU producers of SWP and SMP are feeling comfortable and they are not pushing to sell. For us this is a signal that the market is not as weak as everybody is saying. SWP feed price is just above 600 euros. Under the present conditions we do not expect an increase for SWP, but at least stable SWP feed prices. The spread between food and feed is huge: 710 vs 600 euro. SMP feed price is low and shows historical low levels, which is making it very interesting to start buying for the next quarters. However, problem is that producers are not willing to sell long ahead at current low levels. We expect some slightly lower SMP feed prices over the coming weeks, but downward potential will be limited. A lot of other dairy commodities are also traded at lower prices (butter, cheese, WPC, etc.) which will have a negative impact on the EU milk price in Q Again, Brussels did not sell any SMP from Intervention. That is positive news for the market. Market developments General This week the auction of Fonterra (Gdt) showed again a decrease of 3.9%, which is not supporting the market. At a moment that market activity in the western world is slowing down towards Christmas, Asian demand seems to be waking up. The stabilization of prices and even reversal in some categories in combination with the growing concern about the impact of early summer in New Zealand on milk production, triggered a growing number of transactions in the Asia-Pacific region. 8

8 Buyers in most of the key import regions took the opportunity of favourably low prices to increase their level of forward coverage beyond historic averages. In Europe, milk price will decrease in the coming month. So, what will be the impact on milk production?in all dairy categories, however, downward pressure is still there. But downward potential is also limited. We expect that the market can also change rapidly. One positive signal is sufficient to turn the market and as soon as we see the market turn, it will most probably go fast Market developments vegetable Fats At the moment, palm oil prices are decreasing slightly from recent levels of 680 euro towards 660. We expect that Palm can decrease a little further, but not much. A lot of people will start buying long ahead as soon as prices will go below 650 euro and then we expect an increase and higher prices in Q1 and Q Coconut oil price are currently around 1500 euro and, as mentioned before, levels of 1400 euro should be possible soon. From a historical point of view it is still at very high levels and nobody is willing to buy long ahead at these levels, which is making it also very unpredictable. Lysine market: Tendency: Up Increasing price of the corn and logistic cost during winter, push all producers increase their price offer. One of producer located in Ningxia province has to close down due to strict environmental regulation. Price is around ,47 usd$/kg. Methionine Tendency: Stable Demand is stable and no issue on supply. Price is around usd$/kg Threonine: 9

9 Tendency: up Similar reason with Lysine Price is around usd$/kg Tryptophan: Tendency: up Producers are sold out and no offer at this moment. Supply is tight. Price is around usd$/kg General info: Happy New Year! Wish you a healthy, wealthy and successful year 2018! A little review on what we have been through in 2017, it has been an exciting yet challenging year with stable/down trend in H1 and significantly uptrend in H2 for almost all items. Most of prices have break the uptrend record. The main issue of environment regulation in China is still happen and BASF incident of citral factory. The citral production can only start to produce in March for the earliest. Expectation for Q is prices will stay at high side, people are waiting what will happen after Chinese New Year. Many prediction said prices will come down afterwards. Vit A price is stay firm. Supply is remains extremely tight. Price is about USD Vit B1 mono price is stable. Supply is in line with demand. Price is around USD Vit B2 price is up. Supply is getting tight. Supply from China still limited due environment restriction and supply from Korea is allocated for Korea market demand which increasing. Price is around USD Vit B3 (Niacinamide) price is down. Production of Beta Picoline ( Main raw material for Vit B3 ) was good and new producers in China start to enter market and bring price in downtrend. Price is around USD Calpan price is down. New producer in China keep supply to market and traders offloading their stocks. Price now is about USD

10 Vit B6 price is stable to up. 2 producers in China stop production and 1 producers sold out. Only 1 producer (the biggest) keep supplying market. Price is about USD Vit B12, Price is strongly up. 3 big producers in China are forced to stop production due to environment reason, thus, price is rocketing. Vit B12 pure price is now over USD /kg and reached USD /kg. Vit C series prices are stable with increasing tendency. The main producers in China will shut down their production line or reduce the output to stay within their pollution quota during winter season. A new producer will be in the market soon. Vit D3 500 price is up. Supply still limited even traders start to offload stocks. Price is around USD 73-75/kg. Vit E50 price is down a bit due to traders offloading their stock and take profit. It believes to bounce back up after the stock finish. Price is about USD Biotin price is up. One China producer has to stop production due to incident happened at their site. Supply of pure biotin is becoming tight. Biotin pure price is around USD 1000 and up. Vit K3 MNB price is still stable. Price is about USD Phosphate. Stable/Up. Raw material costs is increasing and limited supply. Also some increases in phosphoric acid. Copper: Up. Demand for Q is partly covered. The cost of raw material is still high. During winter time some projects are slow down in China but expected to be better after CNY. Zinc Sulfate: Market trend: Stable. China producers have difficulties in getting enough raw materials. Environmental inspection result in closing down some factories. Therefore the supply of Zinc Sulfate is very limited and prices stay high. Availability expect to increase after Spring Festival in March Manganese Oxide: Stable. Market is stable. Manganese metal is still priced in the higher range. Demand is very high and there s urgent need to develop new suppliers to get a sustainable supply balance. 11

11 Magnesium Oxide. Up. Chinese domestic prices have stabilised but the tight supply will continue and keep prices high into Q1/Q2. The European market is now active with suppliers pushing for another price increases. Sodium Selenite. Stable to up. Prices remain firm but stable and we expect this situation to continue until at least after the Chinese Spring Festival in Feb Cobalt. Up. Cobalt metal is continuing to increase and it will continue in Q due to strong interest in batteries for Electric vehicles. Iodine. Up. Due to crude iodine prices dropping to below cost during 2017 there has been a reduction of output and one producer has closed which has caused prices to increase. Suppliers are quickly passing through these cost increases to Iodine compounds. Disclaimer: Trouw Nutrition does not warrant or make any representations regarding the use, validity, accuracy, or reliability of, or the results of the use of, or otherwise respecting, the information/data in this report. Trouw Price Trends is an external e-newsletter provided by Trouw Nutrition. For further information please contact Ms. Karren Kim at karren.kim@trouwnutrition.com TPT0013/17/TNAP Follow us on: Copyright 2017, Trouw Nutrition Asia. All rights reserved. Want to change how you receive these s? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list. 12