DAILY MARKET REPORT 16 APRIL 2019

Transcription

1 DAILY MARKET REPORT 16 APRIL 2019 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : Fax. No. : Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar Euro/Dollar Gold Platinum Brent Crude JSE Top Dow Jones Indus Avg The changes in the table above is from previous Safex close (12h00) The rand is weaker this morning and trading around R14.06/$ with the stronger dollar weighing on the rand. On the chart resistance for the rand is seen around R14.07 and the R14.14 area. South African equities did come under some pressure with the JSE Top40 ending 0.35% lower. In the US the dollar is stronger trading around to the euro this morning and US equities did come under some pressure with the Dow ending 0.11% lower in the daytime session and this morning the Dow future is 0.16% higher. Commodity prices are lower this morning with the stronger dollar weighing on commodity prices. Gold and platinum are 0.05% and 0.11% lower than the levels seen yesterday and Brent crude oil prices are 0.03% lower than the levels seen at Safex close. US Dollar/South African Rand Key data releases: US Industrial production US Manufacturing output

2 International Market Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change CME Jul maize CME Dec maize CME Jul wheat KCBT Jul wheat KCBT Dec wheat Matif May wheat (Euro/ton) CME Jul soybeans Jul CME maize R/ton Dec CME maize R/ton Jul CME wheat R/ton Jul KCBT wheat R/ton Dec KCBT wheat R/ton Jul CME soybeans R/ton The changes in the table above is from Safex close (12h00) Corn US maize prices ended higher in the daytime session yesterday on concerns that the wet weather in the US could result in some early planting delays and some technical buying adding support. This morning the electronic maize prices are trading lower. The USDA in their weekly crop progress report indicated that 3% of the US maize crop has been planted which was lower than the market expectation seen at 5% complete. The 5-year average is seen at 5% planted. The weekly US export inspections of maize was reported at million tons which was in line with the market expectation seen ranging between and 1.2 million tons. Soybeans US soybean prices ended higher in the daytime session yesterday with hopes for a US/China trade deals supporting the market. This morning the electronic soybean prices are trading lower. The US NOPA soybean crush for the month of March was reported at 170 million bushels which was slightly higher than the market expectation seen at 168 million bushels. The weekly US export inspections of soybeans was reported at tons which was at the lower end of the market expectation seen ranging between and tons. The USDA also announced a private sale of tons of US soybeans that was sold to an unknown destination. Wheat US wheat prices traded lower in the session on Monday with the ample US and global wheat stocks limiting some of the buying interest in the market. European wheat futures also fell yesterday. This morning the electronic US wheat prices are trading lower. The weekly US export inspections of wheat released yesterday was reported at tons which was in line with the market expectation seen ranging between and tons. The USDA in their weekly crop progress report indicated that 2% of the US spring wheat crop has been planted which was lower than the market expectation seen at 4% planted. The 5-year average is seen at 13% planted this time of the year. The forecaster SovEcon raised their 2019 Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.4 million tons which is up from their previous estimate seen at 80 million tons. 2

3 US rainfall forecast for the week ahead US 6-10 Day precipiation forecast US 6-10 Day temperature forecast 3

4 South African Market 15 April 2019 Maize South African maize prices opened the day higher with some selling that was seen after the opening. July white maize started the day at R2747 and traded to a high of R2749 before some selling was once again seen. July white maize broke below the 200-day average seen at R2704 and traded to a low of R2680. Although July white maize ended the day off the session lows the weak performance that was seen could limit some of the buying interest in our market. US maize prices are lower this morning but the rand is weaker which is supporting parity prices. The higher parity prices could provide some support to local white and yellow maize prices in the session today. The weak close seen in especially our white maize market could limit some of the gains. Wheat South African wheat contracts opened the day mostly flat with some buying that was seen after the opening. July wheat contracts stared the day at R4629 and the market attempted to gain some ground after that. Wheat prices traded to an intraday high of R4649 breaking above the 40-day and 9-day averages and trading to a high of R4649 with the wheat market ending the day off the session highs. The buying interest seen in the past 3 sessions could be supportive for local prices in the sessions ahead. US CME and KCBT wheat prices are lower this morning but the weaker rand is countering the lower KCBT wheat prices resulting in flat parity prices. The weaker rand could be supportive for local wheat prices in the session today. Oilseeds White Maize MTM Change High Low May Jul Dec Yellow Maize May Jul Dec Wheat May Jul Dec Sunflower May Jul Soybeans May Jul CME Corn Jul Dec South African soybean contracts opened the day higher with some selling that was seen after the opening. May-19 soybeans started the day at R4775 and traded lower after that with the market trading to an intraday low of R4745 but some late buying was seen. May-19 soybean contracts traded to an intraday high of R4778 and soybean futures ended the day at the session highs. The late buying that was seen could be supportive for our market in the sessions ahead. South African sunflower seed contracts opened the day lower with the market trading on both sides of the opening after that. May-19 sunflower seed contracts started the day at R4970 and traded to a low of R4956 but the market once again found some support around R4950 and pulled off the lows after that. Sunflower seed contracts traded to an intraday high of R4982 with the market ending the day slightly off the highs. 4

5 US soybean contracts are lower this morning but the rand trading at R14.06/$ is still pointing to higher parity prices. The higher parity prices could be supportive for local sunflower seed and soybean contracts in the session today. Weather conditions Cumulative rainfall forecast for the week ahead Technical Graphs Safex Jul maize prices CME Jul corn prices 5

6 Daily MAWN9 Cndl, MAWN9, Trade Price 2019/04/15, , , , , N/A, N/A SMA, MAWN9, Trade Price(Last), /04/15, SMA, MAWN9, Trade Price(Last), /04/15, SMA, MAWN9, Trade Price(Last), /04/15, SMA, MAWN9, Trade Price(Last), /04/15, /05/ /05/06 (JHB) Price ZAR T RSI, MAWN9, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2019/04/15, Value ZAR T June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April

7 Daily CN9 Cndl, CN9, Trade Price, 2019/04/16, 371, 371, 371, 371, -1, (-0.20%), SMA, CN9, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2019/04/16, 379, SMA, CN9, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2019/04/16, 370, SMA, CN9, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2019/04/16, /03/ /05/07 (CHG) Price USc Bsh RSI, CN9, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2019/04/16, Value USc Bsh Mar 18 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April