DAILY MARKET REPORT 12 JULY 2018

Transcription

1 DAILY MARKET REPORT 12 JULY 2018 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : Fax. No. : Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar Euro/Dollar Gold Platinum Brent Crude JSE Top Dow Jones Indus Avg The changes in the table above is from previous Safex close (12h00) The rand is under pressure this morning and is trading around R13.53/$ with the stronger dollar putting some pressure on the rand. South African equities traded sharply lower yesterday with the JSE Top40 ending 1.45% lower in the session yesterday. In the US the dollar is stronger breaking below to the euro and is quoted at to the euro this morning. US equities did come under some pressure with the Dow ending 0.88% lower in the daytime session and this morning the Dow futures are 0.38% higher. Key data for the US will be the June consumer inflation data today. Commodity prices are lower this morning with gold and platinum prices 0.55% and 1.08% lower this morning and crude oil prices are also 2.89% lower this morning. US Dollar/South African Rand Key data releases: USDA July supply and demand estimates South African gold and mining production South African manufacturing production US June CPI

2 International Market Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change CME Sep maize CME Dec maize CME Sep wheat KCBT Sep wheat KCBT Dec wheat Matif Sep wheat (Euro/ton) CME Nov soybeans Sep CME maize R/ton Dec CME maize R/ton Sep CME wheat R/ton Sep KCBT wheat R/ton Dec KCBT wheat R/ton Nov CME soybeans R/ton The changes in the table above is from Safex close (12h00) Corn CME maize prices traded lower once again in the daytime session setting new contract lows once again with the trade tensions between the US and China weighing on prices. This morning the electronic maize prices are higher. The USDA report is due today. The average market expectation of the US 2017/18 maize ending stocks is seen at billion bushels and the new crop 2018/19 maize ending stocks is seen at billion bushels. The weekly US export sales figures of maize to be released today are expected to range between and 1.3 million tons old and new crops combined. Soybeans CME soybean contracts dropped to new contract lows once again on the escalating trade war between the US and China while the favorable weather conditions in the US Midwest also added some pressure. This morning the electronic prices are higher. The US once again threatened with another 10% tariff on an extra $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and China vowed to strike back. The USDA report will be released today. The average market expectation of the US 2017/18 soybean ending stocks is seen at 507 million bushels. The US new crop 2018/19 soybean ending stocks is expected at 471 million bushels. Wheat The weekly US export sales figures of soybeans to be released today are expected to range between an million tons old and new crops combined. US wheat prices traded lower in the daytime session yesterday with the spillover weakness from the lower US maize and soybean prices and some positioning ahead of the USDA report that was seen. This morning the electronic prices are higher, The USDA will release their July report today. The average market expectation of the US all wheat crop is seen at billion bushels and the 2018/19 US wheat ending stocks is seen at 973 million bushels. The weekly US export sales figures of wheat to be released today are expected to range between and tons. 2

3 US cumulative rainfall forecast for week ahead (inches) US 6-10 temperature forecast US 6-10 Day rainfall forecast 3

4 South African Market 11 July 2018 Maize South African maize prices opened the day lower with the lower parity prices weighing on our market at the opening. December white maize started the day at R2102 and traded lower after that setting an intraday low of R2093 but the failure to hold below R2100 resulted in some short covering after that. We did see some buying interest into the close with the market trading to an intraday high of R2015 and ending the day at the session highs. On the technical chart the market also managed to close the gap left open in early April. The weekly South African producer deliveries for the past week was reported at tons including tons of white maize and tons of yellow maize. US maize prices are slightly lower this morning but the weaker rand is countering the lower US maize prices resulting in flat parity prices. We did see some late buying in our market yesterday which could be supportive for local maize. Wheat South African wheat contracts opened the day mostly flat with some buying interest that was seen after the opening. December wheat contracts opened the day at R4150 and traded to a high of R4162 with some selling/long liquidation that was seen after that despite the weaker rand. December wheat came under some pressure in the 2 nd half of the session trading to a low of R4137 ending the day close to the session low. US KCBT wheat prices are lower than the levels seen at Safex close yesterday which despite the weaker rand is pointing to lower parity prices. The weaker rand could limit the losses in local wheat prices in the session today. Oilseeds White Maize MTM Change High Low Jul Sep Dec Yellow Maize Jul Sep Dec Wheat Jul Sep Dec Sunflower Jul Dec Soybeans Jul Dec CME Corn Sep Dec South African soybean contracts opened the day lower with some more follow through selling that was seen after the opening. December soybean contracts started the day at R4524 which was very close to the intraday high with our market coming under some pressure after that. The market sold off for the remainder of the session trading to a low of R4507 and ending the day close to the session low. 4

5 South African sunflower seed contracts opened the day lower with some more follow through selling that was seen after that. December sunflower seed contracts opened the day at R4860 and traded to a high of R4880 before some more selling was seen. The market traded lower after that trading to an intraday low of R4840 and the market ended the day slightly off the session lows with the market setting new recent lows. The weekly producer deliveries of soybean was reported at tons and the sunflower seed deliveries was reported at tons. US soybean contracts are slightly lower but the rand is weaker this morning. The weaker rand could provide some support to local oilseeds in the session today. Weather conditions Rainfall forecast for week ahead Technical Graphs Safex Dec maize prices CME Dec corn prices 5

6 Daily MAWZ8 Cndl, MAWZ8, Trade Price 2018/07/11, , , , N/A, N/A SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /07/11, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /07/11, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /07/11, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /07/11, /10/ /07/25 (JHB) Price ZAR T RSI, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2018/07/11, Value ZAR T October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July

7 Daily CZ8 Cndl, CZ8, Trade Price, 2018/07/12, 355, 357, 355, 356, +3, (+0.85%), SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2018/07/12, 390, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2018/07/12, 363, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2018/07/12, /09/ /07/27 (CHG) Price USc Bsh RSI, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2018/07/12, Value USc Bsh October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July