CHARTBOOK January 2019
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- Clement Dean
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1 CHARTBOOK January 2019
2 Topic Page Market Returns 3-5 Valuations 6-19 Local Economics Global Economics Local Markets Offshore Markets Currencies Commodities 57-62
3 Market Returns
4 Local Market Morningstar Direct as at: 31/01/2019
5 Offshore Market Morningstar Direct as at: 31/01/2019
6 Valuations
7 20 FTSE/JSE All Share 7-Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/30
8 20 FTSE/JSE Top 40 7-Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/30
9 18 FTSE/JSE Mid Cap 7-Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/30
10 26 FTSE/JSE Industrial 25 7-Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/30
11 16 FTSE/JSE Financial 15 7-Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/30
12 25 FTSE/JSE Resource 20 7-Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/30
13 19 FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property 7-Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/30
14 22 S&P Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/30
15 Dow Jones Industrials 7-Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/30
16 FTSE Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/30
17 24 Nikkei Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/31
18 14 Hang Seng 7-Year PE /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/25
19 18 Euro Stoxx 50 7-Year PE /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
20 SA Economics
21 7,5 SA CPI 7-Year Growth 7 6,5 6 5,5 5 4,5 4 3, /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/31
22 South Africa - Business Confidence Index 7-Year Growth /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/31
23 10 SA Retail Sales YoY Growth (%) 5-Year Growth /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/30
24 7,5 SA CPI vs CRB Index 6-Year Price , , , , /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/31 SACPIYOY Index CRB CMDT Index
25 11,00 SA Bond Yields 5 vs 10 vs 20 vs 30 Year Yields 10,50 10,00 9,59 9,58 9,50 9,00 8,57 8,50 8,00 7,75 7,50 7,00 6,50 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year 30 Year
26 Implied SA 10 Year Bond Yield vs Actual Yield 10,00 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,72 6,00 1,93 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,17 8,57 2,00 1,00 2,63 0,00 US 10Y Avg Inf Diff SA CDS Spread SA 10Y SA 10yr Fair Value 6.72% Trading at 8.57% Cheap/(Expensive) 1.85%
27 JSE All Share Index vs Earnings 13-Year Returns 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 2005/04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/22 ALSI Earnings ALSI Return
28 3,5 US 10 Year vs SA 10 Year 2-Year Yields 3,3 9,5 3,1 2,9 9 2,7 8,5 2,5 2,3 8 2,1 1,9 7,5 2017/01/ /01/ /01/31 US 10 Year Yield SA 10 Year Yield
29 Global Economics
30 Market Volatility Index (VIX) 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
31 5 Eurozone - Consumer Confidence 5-Year Price /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/31
32 China (Mainland) - Consumer Confidence 5-Year Price /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/30
33 3,5 Developed Market Bond Yields 10 Year Yields 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, /01/ /01/ /01/29 USGG10YR Index GUKG10 Index GTDEM10Y Govt
34 3,20 US Bond Yields 5 vs 10 vs 20 vs 30 Year Yields 3,10 3,00 3,00 2,90 2,83 2,80 2,70 2,64 2,60 2,50 2,45 2,40 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year 30 Year
35 Developed Market vs Emerging Market Returns 3-Year Growth /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/02 Ishares MSCI World Index Fund Indexed Line ishares MSCI Emerging Index Fund Indexed
36 Local Markets
37 Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
38 Johannesburg Stock Exchange Top 40 Tradeable Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
39 63000 Johannesburg Stock Exchange Resource 10 Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
40 92000 Johannesburg Stock Exchange Industrial 25 Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
41 Johannesburg Stock Exchange Financial 15 Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
42 83000 Johannesburg Stock Exchange Mid Cap Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
43 67000 Johannesburg Stock Exchange Small Cap Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
44 700 SA Listed Prop Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
45 Offshore Markets
46 3000 S&P 500 Index 5-Year Price /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/31
47 28000 Dow Jones Industrial Index 5-Year Price /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/31
48 FTSE 100 Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
49 Nikkei 225 Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
50 Hang Seng Index 5-Year Price /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/30
51 4000 Euro Stoxx 50 Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
52 Currencies
53 105 DXY US Dollar Currency Index 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
54 US Dollar/South African Rand FX Spot Rate 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
55 1,45 Euro/US Dollar FX Spot Rate 5-Year Price 1,4 1,35 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1, /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
56 1,8 UK Pound Sterling/US Dollar FX Spot Rate 5-Year Price 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 2014/02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
57 Commodities
58 1500 Gold Spot Commodity 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
59 1600 Platinum Spot Commodity 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
60 120 Brent Crude 5-Year Price /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01
61 8000 Copper Spot 5-Year Price /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/31
62 Commodity Research Bureau Index 5-Year Price /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/31
63 END
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