Key market performance drivers

Transcription

1 Key market performance drivers Monthly charts September

2 Market returns concentration One-year returns ending: September-17 August-17 July-17 NASPERS NASPERS NASPERS ANGLO ANGLO ANGLO STANDARD BANK GP STANDARD BANK GP STANDARD BANK GP MTN GROUP FIRSTRAND BHPBILL Top 5 FIRSTRAND 76% Top 5 MTN GROUP 77% Top 5 SASOL 111% Top 6 BID CORPORATION LIMITED 79% Top 6 BHPBILL 82% Top 6 BID CORPORATION LIMITED 116% GLENCORE XSTRATA PLC CAPITEC FIRSTRAND BHPBILL SANLAM CAPITEC CAPITEC SHOPRIT VODACOM Top 10 SAPPI 91% Top 10 VODACOM 95% Top 10 SAPPI 128% BARWORLD SASOL BARWORLD NEPI ROCKCASTLE EXXARO MONDI LTD DISCOVERY LIMITED BARWORLD MONDI PLC MONDI LTD DISCOVERY LIMITED INVPLC SANLAM IMPERIAL PSG EXXARO NEPI ROCKCASTLE CLICKS GROUP LTD MR PRICE SAPPI NEDBANK CLICKS GROUP LTD BID CORPORATION LIMITED EXXARO KUMBA IRON ORE MONDI LTD DISCOVERY LIMITED Top 20 SHOPRIT 110% Top 20 PSG 115% Top 20 SANLAM 144% Remaining (Positive) 25% Remaining (Positive) 23% Remaining (Positive) 16% Negative (68 Shares) -35% Negative (66 Shares) -38% Negative (76 Shares) -60% Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Investments Market-cap weighted returns: 10 shares contributed 91% to the return of the SWIX, while 20 shares contributed 110% 2 investments

3 Active-index analysis One-year rolling active to August* % 850% 10% Active outperforms 750% 650% 5% 550% 0% 450% 350% -5% 250% -10% Active underperforms 150% 50% -15% Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17-50% Active Equity managers - SWIX (12m rolling) Active Equity Managers Cumulative SWIX Cumulative Median of Active Equity Managers vs SWIX The median of the active equity managers underperformed the SWIX for the year ended August 2017 Source: Alexander Forbes SA Equity Manager Watch, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data 3 investments

4 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Active versus tracker: Cash One-year rolling average to August* % 175% 10% Active outperforms 155% 135% 115% 95% 5% 75% 55% 0% Active underperforms 35% 15% -5% -5% -25% Active Cash managers - STeFI (12m rolling) Active Cash Managers Cumulative STeFI Cumulative Median of Active Money Market Managers vs SteFI Source: Alexander Forbes SA Money Market Manager Watch, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data 4 investments

5 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Active versus tracker: Bonds One-year rolling average to August* % 200% 10% Active outperforms 150% 5% 100% 0% -5% 50% -10% Active underperforms 0% -15% -50% Active Bond managers - ALBI (12m rolling) Active Bond Managers Cumulative ALBI Cumulative Median of Active Bond Managers vs ALBI Source: Alexander Forbes SA Bond Manager Watch, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data 5 investments

6 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Active versus tracker: Property One-year rolling average to August* % 1350% 10% Active outperforms 1150% 5% 0% -5% 950% 750% 550% 350% -10% Active underperforms 150% -15% -50% Active Property managers - SAPY (12m rolling) Active Property Managers Cumulative SAPY Cumulative Median of Active Property Managers vs SAPY Source: Alexander Forbes SA Property Manager Watch, INET BFA and Momentum Investments * Lagged by one month due to availability of data 6 investments

7 Size Momentum Growth Quality Value Style returns for South Africa Data to September 2017 ZAR Styles One month to Sept 2017 Three months to Sept 2017 One year to Sept 2017 Three years to Sept 2017 Five years to Sept 2017 Ten years to Sept 2017 Twenty years to Sept 2017 Book to Price Dividend Yield Earnings Yield Cash Flow Yield Sales to Price ROE ROIC LT Income to Sales Low market beta Low Debt/Equity EBIT Margin Stability Earnings Growth Sales Growth M Earning Growth FY1 Earnings Revisions Short Term Momentum Medium Term Momentum Size The Momentum and some quality factors had strong returns for the shorter term. For the three-year period, the momentum and some value factors had positive returns. Source: FactSet, Momentum Global Investment Management and Momentum Investments 7 investments

8 Sep 30, 2016 Nov 11, 2016 Dec 23, 2016 Feb 03, 2017 Mar 17, 2017 Apr 28, 2017 Jun 09, 2017 Jul 21, 2017 Sep 01, MSCI developed and emerging markets One year to September 2017 One year to September 2017 Developed markets = 16.1% Emerging markets = 19.9% SWIX = 8.3% Three months to September 2017 Developed markets = 4.4% Emerging markets = 7.1% SWIX = 3.2% 85 Source: INET BFA, MSCI and Momentum Investments MSCI Developed Markets (USD) MSCI Emerging Markets (USD) SWIX (USD) 8 investments

9 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 SA 10-year bond yields Five years to September SA 10 year bond yield 9 investments

10 May-01 Feb-02 Nov-02 Aug-03 May-04 Feb-05 Nov-05 Aug-06 May-07 Feb-08 Nov-08 Aug-09 May-10 Feb-11 Nov-11 Aug-12 May-13 Feb-14 Nov-14 Aug-15 May-16 Feb-17 Yield of R197 (inflation-linked bond) Since May 2001 to September R investments

11 01-Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-17 FTSE/JSE sectors One year to September One year to September 2017 Resources = 11.1% Financials = 7.0% Industrials = 11.5% Three months to September 2017 Resources = 17.8% Financials = 5.1% Industrials = 7.4% 85 Resources Financials Industrials 11 investments

12 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 FTSE/JSE sectors Rolling three-year return to September % 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% % % % Resources Financials Industrials Returns are annualised 12 investments

13 FTSE/JSE sectors Decomposed Three months to September Coal Mining Mining 35.3% 19 Platinum Mining Mining 1.9% 2 General Mining Mining 28.8% 20 Real Estate Investment Trusts Financials 1.9% 3 Industrial Metals Basic Materials 27.9% 21 General Financial Financials 1.2% 4 Industrial Transportation Industrials 17.8% 22 Construction & Materials Industrials 0.6% 5 Personal Goods Consumer Goods 16.0% 23 Support Services Industrials 0.1% 6 Media Consumer Services 15.0% 24 Food Producers Consumer Goods -1.0% 7 Real Estate Investment & Services Financials 10.0% 25 Equity Investment Instruments Financials -2.0% 8 Gold Mining Mining 9.9% 26 Fixed Line Telecommunications Telecommunication -3.7% 9 Non-life Insurance Financials 8.8% 27 Automobiles & Parts Consumer Goods -4.1% 10 Banks Financials 7.7% 28 Tobacco Consumer Goods -4.2% 11 Mobile Telecommunications Telecommunication 7.5% 29 Beverages Consumer Goods -5.4% 12 Forestry & Paper Basic Materials 7.0% 30 Travel & Leisure Consumer Services -5.7% 13 Life Insurance Financials 6.1% 31 Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care -6.9% 14 General Retailers Consumer Services 5.3% 32 Household Goods Consumer Goods -10.5% 15 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care 5.1% 33 Electronic & Electrical Equipment Industrials -11.0% 16 Food & Drug Retailers Consumer Services 4.9% 34 Industrial Engineering Industrials -12.2% 17 Chemicals Basic Materials 3.3% 35 Software & Computer Services Technology -16.1% 18 General Industrials Industrials 2.6% Key Resources Financials Industrials Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Investments 13 investments

14 FTSE/JSE sectors Decomposed One year to September Coal Mining Mining 54.3% 19 Equity Investment Instruments Financials 1.4% 2 Personal Goods Consumer Goods 50.6% 20 Chemicals Basic Materials 1.3% 3 Industrial Metals Basic Materials 39.2% 21 General Financial Financials 0.3% 4 General Mining Mining 30.1% 22 Tobacco Consumer Goods -0.2% 5 Forestry & Paper Basic Materials 29.4% 23 General Retailers Consumer Services -0.9% 6 Media Consumer Services 23.2% 24 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care -1.8% 7 Non-life Insurance Financials 18.8% 25 Electronic & Electrical Equipment Industrials -2.4% 8 Support Services Industrials 14.6% 26 Food Producers Consumer Goods -3.5% 9 Industrial Transportation Industrials 13.7% 27 Automobiles & Parts Consumer Goods -6.3% 10 Real Estate Investment & Services Financials 13.3% 28 Industrial Engineering Industrials -8.2% 11 Banks Financials 13.0% 29 Beverages Consumer Goods -19.1% 12 Mobile Telecommunications Telecommunication 11.0% 30 Household Goods Consumer Goods -21.0% 13 Food & Drug Retailers Consumer Services 10.4% 31 Software & Computer Services Technology -22.8% 14 Life Insurance Financials 5.3% 32 Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care -27.8% 15 Fixed Line Telecommunications Telecommunication 4.6% 33 Travel & Leisure Consumer Services -28.5% 16 Real Estate Investment Trusts Financials 3.2% 34 Gold Mining Mining -36.3% 17 General Industrials Industrials 2.5% 35 Platinum Mining Mining -37.3% 18 Construction & Materials Industrials 1.9% Key Resources Financials Industrials Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Investments 14 investments

15 01-Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-17 FTSE/JSE market caps One year to September One year to September 2017 SWIX 40 = 7.8% Mid Cap = -2.8% Small Cap = -0.1% Three months to September 2017 SWIX 40 = 7.9% Mid Cap = 3.8% Small Cap = 3.0% 85 SWIX 40 Mid Cap Small Cap 15 investments

16 01-Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep-17 Local asset classes Three months to September % 5.7% % 1.8% 1.2% SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property ILB 16 investments

17 01-Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep-17 Global asset classes Three months to September % % 4.8% 4.7% 3.7% Global Bonds Global Property Global ILB Global Equity USD/ZAR 17 investments

18 01-Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-17 Local asset classes One year to September % 8.2% 7.6% 7.0% 4.6% % SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property ILB CPI *CPI is lagged by one month due to availability of inflation data 18 investments

19 01-Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-17 Global asset classes One year to September % % -1.3% -3.5% -4.4% Global Bonds Global Property Global ILB Global Equity USD/ZAR 19 investments

20 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Local asset classes Five years to September % 12.7% % 6.3% 5.7% 5.6% 95 SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property ILB CPI *CPI is lagged by one month due to availability of inflation data 20 investments

21 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Global asset classes Five years to September % % 11.5% 10.3% 9.8% Global Bonds Global Property Global ILB Global Equity USD/ZAR 21 investments

22 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Asset classes Ten years to September % % 10.3% 9.2% 9.2% 8.4% 7.2% 7.0% 6.0% Global Bonds SWIX ALBI STeFI SA Listed Property USD/ZAR ILB CPI Global Equity For the 10-year period to September 2017, the FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property continued to outperform, followed by the SWIX and global bonds *CPI is lagged by one month due to availability of inflation data 22 investments

23 03-Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-17 Exchange rate Exchange rates One year to September Three months to September 2017: Sterling-Rand: 6.2% Euro-Rand: 7.3% Dollar-Rand: 3.7% % % % Sterling-Rand Euro-Rand Dollar-Rand 23 investments

24 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Gold (rands), FTSE/JSE SWIX, CPI, SteFI One-year rolling returns to September % 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% % % Gold (ZAR) CPI SteFI SWIX *CPI is lagged by one month due to availability of inflation data 24 investments

25 01-Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Commodities Three months to September % % 9.8% 5.0% 3.0% -1.6% -4.5% 90 Brent Spot (Oil) Gold Iron Copper Palladium Platinum Reuters/Jeffries CRB Commodities Source: INET BFA, FT.com and Momentum Investments All returns in dollar terms 25 investments

26 01-Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-17 Commodities One year to September % 29.5% 13.6% 11.1% -1.0% -2.6% -11.2% Brent Spot (Oil) Gold Iron Copper Palladium Platinum Reuters/Jeffries CRB Commodities Source: INET BFA, FT.com and Momentum Investments All returns in dollar terms 26 investments

27 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 SAVI VIX SAVI-VIX Since February 2007 to September Financial / credit crisis European debt crisis (Sovereign debt concerns) S&P downgrade US debt Renewed fears about euro zone debt Fed advises of potential tapering of QE 3 Brexit Uncertainty around US rate hikes US Elections /SA downgrade concerns SAVI VIX 27 investments

28 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 R(m) Foreign transactions 2013 to ,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000-30, Foreign Transactions Bonds Foreign Transactions Equities Rand/USDollar Exchange Rate 28 investments

29 December January February March April May June July August September October November December Cumulative foreign transaction equities 2012 to investments

30 December January February March April May June July August September October November December Cumulative foreign transaction bonds 2012 to investments

31 End of key market performance drivers monthly charts for September investments

32 Thank you 32 investments

33 Disclaimer 33 investments