Crop Risk Management
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1 Crop Risk Management January 28 th, 2010 Steven D. Johnson Farm & Ag Business Management Specialist (515)
2 Source: Johnson, ISU Extension, December 2009 Five Megatrends 1.Global Recession 2.Federal Government Borrowing 3.Decreased Meat Demand 4.Crop Price and Input Cost Volatility 5.Global Competition
3 World Corn Production Source: USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board, October 2009
4 World Soybean Production Source: USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board, October 2009
5 Five Farm Challenges 1. Large 2009 Crop Production 2. Corn Quality Concerns 3. Farm Financial Uncertainty 4. Increased Counter Party Risk a) Prepaying Expenses b) Contracting Outputs 5. Farm Expansion or Contraction? Source: Johnson, ISU Extension, December 2009
6 Production Marketing Finance Crop Risk Management Crossroads
7 U.S. Farm Debt to Equity Source: USDA Economic Research Service, November 2009
8 U.S. Net Farm Income Trends * - Forecast Source: USDA Economic Research Service, November 2009
9 U.S. Farm Debt to Income Ratio Debt: Income Ratio Year ( ) Source: USDA Economic Research Service, January 2009 Ratio
10 Source: Klinefelter, Texas A & M Economist, October Questions Remain to be Answered 1. How soon will Net Farm Incomes Rebound? 2. What will happen to Land Values? 3. How soon and by how much will Interest Rates Increase?
11 Corn Yields Projections: U.S. & Iowa U.S. avg. growth, : 2.08 bu./yr. 2019: : Source: Westhoff, FAPRI, U of MO, December 2009
12 Soybean Yield Projections: U.S. & Iowa U.S. avg. growth, : 0.37 bu./yr. 2019: : 43.7 Source: Westhoff, FAPRI, U of MO, December 2009
13 Corn Estimates through $4.20 $4.06 $3.60 $3.80 Source: Wisner, ISU Biofuels Economist, December 2009
14 Correlation of Corn to Crude Oil Source:Westhoff, FAPRI, U of MO, August 2009
15 Crude Oil Price Outlook Source:Westhoff, FAPRI, U of MO, August 2009
16 Crude Oil Chart Source: December 2009
17 Ethanol Plant Margins Source: ISU CARD, August 2009
18 Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Billion gallons Crop Year Billion Bushels Additional Advanced Biofuels Biodiesel Cellulosic Biofuels Conventional Biofuels Source: Hart, ISU Extension Economist, August, 2009
19 New Crop 10 Corn Chart Source: January 25, 2010
20 New Crop 10 Soybean Chart Source: January 25, 2010
21 Soybean Estimates through $10.10 $9.97 $9.00 $8.25 Source: Wisner, ISU Biofuels Economist, December 2009
22 2010 Crop Insurance Decisions Source: Johnson, ISU Extension, January 2010
23 2010 Crop Insurance Indemnity Prices Corn APH (Yield) Revenue 2009 $4.00 $ $3.90 Dec. Corn futures in the month of February Soybeans 2009 $9.90 $ $9.15 Nov. Soybean futures in the month of February Source: USDA Risk Management Agency, December 2009
24 New Crop Corn Seasonal Trend cents per bushel Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar Chicago December Corn Futures, average 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 80% Odds that Spring Price is higher than Fall 1-Aug 79% Odds: Spring Price Exceeds Harvest Price 1-Sep Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 255 approximate dates Source: U of MN, CFFM, 2009
25 Source: USDA Risk Management Agency, October 2009 Corn Historical Crop Insurance Prices 75% of the Time the Spring Price is higher than Fall
26 New Crop Soybean Seasonal Trend Chicago November Soybean Futures, average cents per bushel Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 67% Odds that Spring Price is higher than Fall 79% Odds: Spring Price Exceeds Harvest Price 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov approximate dates Source: U of MN, CFFM, 2009
27 Source: USDA Risk Management Agency, October 2009 Soybean Historical Crop Insurance Prices 60% of the Time the Spring Price is higher than Fall
28 Crop Revenue Insurance Coverage (with SURE) CRC or RA Coverage 170 bu/a APH 75% Level $4.00 bu/a Spring and Fall Price SURE Coverage 115% of Revenue Coverage Source: Johnson, ISU Extension, January 2010
29 Comparing ACRE to CCP Counter-Cyclical Payment (CCP) Nat l Cash Price below: $2.35 /bu Corn $5.56 /bu Soybeans CCP 2010 ACRE Cash Price Triggers: Corn = $3.35 /bu Soybeans = $8.55 /bu ACRE Source: Johnson, ISU Extension, January 2010
30 5 Crop Risk Management Strategies Use Profit to Expand Your Operation Increase Your Crop Risk Management Knowledge Focus on Mitigating Crop Risks Implement a Marketing Plan Early Utilize Crop Revenue Insurance Products Source: Johnson, ISUE Farm Mgt., Sept Source: Johnson, ISU Extension, January 2010
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