Futures and Options Live Cattle Feeder Cattle. Tim Petry Livestock Marketing Economist NDSU Extension Service
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1 Futures and Options Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Tim Petry Livestock Marketing Economist NDSU Extension Service FutOpt-Jan2018
2 Price Risk Management Tools Cash forward contract Video and internet auctions CME futures CME options Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) Livestock Gross Margin (LGM) Which one or combination fits your marketing plan?
3 Cattle Cycle Risk Management P P Retain calves longer (background, summer graze, feed to slaughter weight, replacement heifers) Pre Price a floor price to protect from catastrophic price decline and leave top side price potential open Evaluate retention programs closely Active pre pricing marketing plan
4 Live Cattle Contract 40,000 lbs, 400 cwt lbs (36-28 hd) Steers and Heifers USDA Y.G.3, 60% Choice & 40% Select Feb, Apr, Jun, Aug, Oct, and Dec Delivery to stockyards or packing plant Daily limits: $3/cwt
5 Live Cattle April 2017 BE
6 Index 1.15 SEASONAL PRICE INDEX FED STEERS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max. Index Avg. Index Min. Index Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 05/13/16
7 BASIS: Difference between cash price and futures price Cash price - Futures price = basis Futures Price Actual Livestock Sale Date Futures Nebraska N. Dakota Cash Price Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
8 BASIS is difference between a cash price and the CME futures price. HEDGING eliminates risk of adverse price movement, except for the risk of the basis being different than expected. CASH (+) FUT (-) CASH
9
10 Futures Live Cattle Example Fed Cattle for April Market 1300 lbs/31 hd / contract Jan APR LC FUT $122 / cwt EXPECTED BASIS BREAKEVEN -114 BROKERAGE - (included in BE) EXPECTED PROFIT 5
11 April 20 Price Decrease Price Increase Short Long Cash BE Profit 5 5
12 April 20 Price Decrease Price Increase Short $122 $122 Long BASIS -5 INC DEC INC DEC Cash BE Profit
13 OCT Live Cattle Chart
14 150 SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Fut
15 Options Similar to an insurance policy PUT: right to a short futures contract CALL: right to a long futures contract Buyer pays market determined premium Seller receives premium
16 Live Cattle Options Feb, Apr, Jun, Aug, Oct, Dec (NEW) Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov Strike prices available in $2/cwt intervals nearby contracts may have $1/cwt intervals Terminate on first Friday of contract month
17 Strike Prices $95 - $150 PRICE PREM At the money 122 $3 In the money 128 $9 Out of the money 114 $1
18 Why use options? Minimum price established for bear market, but can receive higher prices if bull market Price Price Price? cash futures options Options will always be 2 nd best
19 Put Option (same assumption as previous) Jan APR LC PUT $122 PREMIUM -3 EXPECTED BASIS -3 BROKERAGE MINIMUM EXPECTED PRICE 116 BREAKEVEN 114 MINIMUM EXPECTED PROFIT 2
20 April 6 (First Friday) Price Decrease Price Increase APR PUT APR FUT PUT VALUE 9 0 PREM CASH BE PROFIT 2 7
21 Summary Price Decrease Price Increase CASH OPTION 2 7 FUTURES 5 5
22 Some Packers Offer Futures-based Forward Contracts No need for broker, margins, etc. Price is + or futures contract price Other specifications
23 LM_CT153 St. Joseph, MO Mon Jan 22, 2018 USDA Market News NATIONAL WEEKLY DIRECT SLAUGHTER CATTLE - PRIOR WEEK SLAUGHTER AND CONTRACT PURCHASES For Week Ending Sunday, 01/21/2018 D: BASIS DISTRIBUTION Delivery Mo./Basis Mo. Apr '18/Apr 45 head = 304 head = head = head = head = head = head = head = ,700 head = Jun '18/Jun 456 head = head = head = head = head = ,165 head = ,428 head = May '18/Jun 290 head = 418 head = head = head = head = head = head = head = head = head = head = +7.97
24 Feeder Cattle Contract 50,000 lbs, 500 cwt lbs (72-56 hd) steers USDA Medium and Large Frame, #1 Jan, Mar, Apr, May, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov Cash settlement Daily limits: $4.50/cwt
25 Index 1.15 SEASONAL PRICE INDEX FEEDER STEERS Pounds, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max. Index Avg. Index Min. Index Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 05/13/16
26 Feeder Cattle March 2017
27 Feeder Cattle Options Jan, Mar, Apr, May, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov (same as futures) Strike price available in $2/cwt intervals nearby two contracts at $1/cwt intervals expiring contract may have $0.50/cwt intervals Terminate on last Thursday of contract month same day as futures expire and cash settlement
28 Margin, not price level is important Both feed and cattle price should be locked in Futures projected feeding potential EXPECTED FUT BASIS PRICE Mar FC Mar Corn Oct LC FC 1.45 = $1, CORN 2.90 = OTHER = Total Costs = BE = 1, = 105 Total cwt. 13.5
29 When should I pull the trigger? Most difficult part of using Futures and Options Questions?
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