Purdue Outlook Update 2011

Transcription

1 Percent Purdue Outlook Update Indiana Agricultural Outlook Corinne Alexander & Chris Hurt Ethanol World Economic Growth Dollar Value Surprises and Uncertainty! Change Wheat Production 21 vs. 29 World -.6% Canada -1.1% FSU % EU -22.4% Ukraine -2.2% U.S % 1% 8% Quarterly Real GDP: Month, 3 Year, 1 Year, and 2 Year Treasury Rates 6% 4% 2% 4 % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% Year Treasury 1 Year Treasury 3 Year Treasury 3 Month Treasury JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND

2 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/1 1/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/2 2/21 $/Bu. Percent of Use Purdue Outlook Update 211 Corn: USDA 9/1/1 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Million Bu. Carryin 1,34 1,624 1,673 1,386 Production 13,74 12,92 13,11 13,16 Total Supply 14,398 13,729 14,791 14,6 Feed & Residual,974,2,2,2 FSI Non-Fuel 1,338 1,316 1,36 1,39 FSI Fuel (Ethanol) 3,26 3,677 4,3 4,7 Export 2,436 1,88 1,98 2,1 Total Use 12,774 12,6 13,4 13,44 Ending Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,386 1,116 US Farm Price $4.2 $4.6 $3. $4.-$4.8 $4.4 Corn: Ending Stocks U.S. World $. $4.9 $4.8 $4.7 $4.6 $4. $4.4 $4.3 $4.2 $4.1 $4. Futures Estimates of Cash Prices: $4.72 $4.63 $4.47 Dec Futures = $4.78 U.S. Central Ind Avg U.S. Central Ind. Avg Southern indiana S. Ind Avg $. $4.9 $4.8 $4.7 $4.63 $4.6 $4. $4.4 $4.3 $4.2 $4.1 $4. Central Indiana Cash Corn Futures Forecast: Dec Futures = $ $1.2 $1. $.8 $.6 $.4 $.2 $. -$ Corn + Soybean Biofuel Acres by 22 (Millions) Crop Years 2

3 9/91 92/93 94/9 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/ 6/7 8/9 1/11 Percent of Use Purdue Outlook Update China Corn Trade: Million Bushels Imports Exports Soybeans:USDA 9/1/1 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Million Bushels Carryin Production 2,676 2,967 3,39 3,483 Total Supply 3,26 3,18 3,12 3,643 Seed & Residual Crush 1,81 1,662 1,7 1,6 Exports 1,161 1,283 1,49 1,48 Total Use 3, 3,47 3,362 3,293 Ending Stock Farm Price $1.1 $9.97 $9.6 $9.1-$1.6 $9.9 3 Soybean Carryover Stocks-to-Use $1.8 Futures Estimates of Cash Prices: $1.6 Central Indiana Cash Soybean Futures Forecast: $1.2 U.S. World $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 $1. $9.8 $ $9.8 $1.11 Nov Futures = $1.31 U.S. Central Ind Avg U.S. Avg Central Ind Southern Ind Cash S. Ind Avg $1.4 $1.2 $1. $9.8 $9.6 $9.4 $ Nov Futures = $ Returns to On- Farm Storage $1. $.8 $.6 $.4 $.2 $. -$.2 -$.4 3

4 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/9 9/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/ /6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Percent of Use Purdue Outlook Update 211 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, China Soybean Trade: Million Bushels Imports Exports Soybean Imports from the U.S.: 199/91-21/11 (Million Bu.) FAS Data China Mexico Japan Wheat: USDA 9/1/1 7/8 8/9 9/1 9/11 Million Bushels Carryin Production 2,67 2,499 2,216 2,264 Total Supply 2,63 2,932 2,991 3,338 Feed & Residual Other Domestic 1,3 1, 987 1,16 Exports 1,264 1, ,2 Total Use 2,329 2,27 2,18 2,436 End Stocks Farm Price $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $4.9 - $.6 $ Wheat: World and U.S. Endings Stocks 4.6 U.S. World With $.1 U.S. price averages expect about $42/acre of 1 Crop ACRE Payments. Crop in 29 will average around $8/acre 4

5 Purdue Outlook Update China Wheat Trade: Million Bushels Imports Exports Variable Costs (Average Cropland) Crops 29 $/acre 21 $/acre 211 $/acre % 1 to 11 Continuous Corn % Rotation Corn % Rotation Soybeans % Wheat % Double Crop Soybeans % Prices 211 Estimated Crop Budget: Indiana: September 1, 21 Corn Soybeans Wheat HarvestBasis $4.8 $1.26 $7.43 Expected Basis Expected Cash Price $4.23 $9.86 $6.63 Estimated Yield/Acre and Returns/Acre Above Variable Costs Corn $4.23 Soybeans $9.86 Wheat $6.63 Wheat/DC Beans Land Quality bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre $/acre Low 129. $ $ $26 $329 Average 161. $ $ $31 $422 High 193. $ $ $371 $44 Budget: Purdue Id-166 (August 21) 6.% 4.% 2.%.% -2.% -4.% -6.% -8.% Domestic Per Capita Availability: % 3.% 1.3% 1.7% Beef Pork Broilers Turkey -.8% -2.3% -2.3% -.7%

6 $/Cwt. $/cwt Purdue Outlook Update 211 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ $48 $46 $44 $42 $4 $38 Barrow & Gilt prices and Per Capita Supplies $4. $. $. $47.84 $47.26 $47.9 $41.24 Price Per Capita Supply $6 $ $ $4 44 $4 $3 $3 Estimated Hog Prices and Costs Per Live Hundredweight: Hog Price Costs $98 $93 $88 $83 $78 Choice Steer per Capita Supplies and Prices $98. $94. $91.82 $92.27 $87.28 $8.41 $83.2 Price Per Capita Supply $2 $19 $18 $17 $16 $1 $14 $13 $12 $11 $1 U.S. All Milk Price $4,7 $4, $4,2 $4, $3,7 $3, $3,2 $3, $2,7 $2, $2,2 $2, $1,7 $1, $1,2 $1, $7 $ Indiana Land Values and Cash Rents: Purdue $4,419 Land Value Cash Rent $2,1 $913 $2,94 $2,173 $4, $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 6

7 Purdue Outlook Update 211 7